Alberta Referendum Closer Than Ever? What You Need to Know | Brian Lilley

Well, Canada has a new governor general.Mark Carney doesn't want to deal with the Americans anymore.And will Alberta separate from Canada?So much going on in national politics.Joining us from Toronto, once again, is Toronto's son, political columnist and BCN contributor, Brian Alili.Great to have you back with us again, Brian.

Thanks for having me.

Yes.Okay.So Brian, Canada has a new governor general.So once again, not from Alberta, despite Premier Danielle Smith making that request.So what can you tell us about Louise Arbour?

Born in Montreal, had a legal career in Ontario, appointed to the Supreme Court by Jean Chrétien, was an international war crimes prosecutor, a UN appointee.Look, she's going to be heralded as a wonderful pick by a lot of people who are part of the Laurentian elite, especially if they vote Liberal, and there's going to be questions about her otherwise because Whether it was her time as a lawyer, a young lawyer working for the Law Reform Commission of Canada, her time as a university professor, as a judge, she has always been a left -wing progressive activist.All of her big appointments in Canada have come from liberals.There are people who get appointed by both liberal and conservative governments, and they're nonpartisan.This role is supposed to be incredibly nonpartisan.You are the king's representative in Canada.

I mean, she was even asked, are you a monarchist?Couldn't answer that.She gave a very strange answer saying, well, I represent a function that has worked well in Canada for decades.you're going to be the king's representative if you can't say yes i'm a monarchist maybe you shouldn't have taken the job so a lot of criticisms of of louis arbor's appointment butPrime Minister Mark Carney did look smug.I'll tell you this, Premier Smith did ask for someone, even just from someone in Western Canada.

Well, it's been decades since that happened.The last one was Ray Nutition, who was appointed by Brian Mulroney in, I believe, the late 80s.There's only been one Governor General, since we had them appointed in the mid -50s as Canadians, who was from Alberta, and it's kind of from Alberta, kind of like Mark Carney's from Alberta.Roland Mishner was born in Alberta, went to school there, but then quickly left and became a lawyer in Toronto and a member of Parliament in Toronto and spent his whole adult life career in Toronto.So he's very much a Toronto guy.It's where he died.

But we've never had someone who was from Alberta, stayed in Alberta, and was appointed.We've had Ray Nutition from Saskatchewan, we've had Ed Schreier from Manitoba, and that's it.Everybody else comes from this little circle, little triangle of Ottawa, Toronto, and Montreal.

Not a lot of Western representation there.Okay.Brian, new reporting today following up on reporting that you did last fall.What are we learning and how does it relate to Alberta's oil patch and reviving the Keystone XL pipeline?

Yeah, so this is about how the Canada -US trade deal died.And it's from an outfit called Politico, a reporter named Mickey Jurek, who used to work out in Western Canada, good reporter on Parliament Hill.So I had reported back in late October.If you remember, Donald Trump called off the trade talks and blamed the ad that Doug Ford's government had been running, quoting Ronald Reagan.This doesn't seem right to me.You know, spent a lot of time.

time digging and found out the same thing that Politico and Mickey are now reporting on now, which is that it was actually how Canada was treating GM and Stellantis and their imports of vehicles into Canada from the United States.They got angry about some production line changes at both GM and Stellantis.and Stellantis and said, well, we're going to tariff you.And Canada added on tariffs that the Americans don't apply to our vehicles and then changed how many vehicles they could bring in and what remittances they could get or refunds.So both companies mentioned this to the White House.So if you remember, Donald Trump on a Tuesday said, yeah, I saw that ad.

I was watching the baseball game.I saw that ad and I would run the same ad.if I were them.And then on Thursday, he said, this ad is horrible.It's a lie.It's fake.

It's AI.I'm canceling the trade talks.What happened in between was GM and Stellantis went to the White House and said, you won't believe what Canada is doing to us.It was that that had killed off the talks even before Trump got upset at the ad.Though that action by Melanie Jolie and Francois -Philippe Champagne, the finance minister, killed off the talks.But prior to that, and this is how it relates to Keystone XL, At the meetings at the White House in early October, when Mark Carney mentioned potentially reviving Keystone XL, the new reporting out of Politico that I didn't have back in October is how effusive the Americans were that this was very much what they wanted.

And they, you know, were we going to get to zero tariffs on everything?No, but they wanted more Canadian oil.They want that energy security.This was part, you know, got the part of what got them excited to get to a deal.And all of that is off now.I mean, thankfully, the revived Frankenstein version of Keystone XL is kind of still going ahead, we hope.

But, you know, that was the part that got them excited.in October.

And then, Brian, you wrote yesterday that you don't think Mark Carney wants to deal with the Americans anymore at all.So does this new reporting change any of that?

No, I felt like he doesn't want to deal for quite some time.And yesterday, he was in Armenia, and he was part of this European political community event in, you know, in Armenia.He's talking about, once again, about Canada is the most European of non -European countries.He talked about rupture, meaning rupture with the United States, a breaking apart from them.He talked about how the hegemons are weaponizing integration.I mean, last week, he gave an interview to the Canadian press, and he was talking about, do we really want to sell them more oil?

Well, yeah, I think we want to sell more oil to everyone.And we'd really like to sell it to people who won't will pay a higher price because we have other options.But yeah, we also want to sell more to the Americans.Mark Carney doesn't.And in his his speech to the the European politicians yesterday seemed to be playing to them.You know, he always talks about how there's two hegemons and they're not following the rules, but he only criticizes One hegemon, the United States, not the other, which is China.

He wants us to get closer to China, closer to Europe, further apart from the United States.And in part, I think it's because not that he knows that, hey, you know, yes, it'd be good to diversify our trade, but he knows that politically it's good for him to be fighting with Donald Trump.

Oh, I don't know about that.In the long run, maybe not so much.

It helps him with the polling numbers in Canada.

For sure it does.Brian, late last week, Supreme Court Justice Richard Wagner said he has no reason to recuse himself.himself from a case involving the Emergencies Act.So what reasons did he give and why do you disagree with his reasons?

The reason that he'd been asked to recuse himself is questions of, could he be impartial?And the Canadian Judicial Council's guidelines for judges is they have to appear to be impartial, not just be impartial, but appear to be impartial.Richard Wagner has made several public comments, given several public interviews about the issue of the Freedom Convoy.in 2022.He has called the people involved in that ignorant.He has, I believe he used the word deplorable at one point.

He has said that it should never happen again, that actions like that need to be met with force by the government.And he said that they held the downtown Ottawa hostage.These are terms that if you had used them and then were called for jury duty, you would be disqualified for jury duty.Now, this is not a jury trial.He's one of the Supreme Court justices that will decide whether to hear the case, and then if they decide yes to hear it, to actually hear the case and the arguments.Chief Justice Wagner said, I haven't commented on the Emergencies Act.

No, but you've disparaged all the people that it was enacted against.This is why you cannot you know, be part of this decision.But he feels that he has done no wrong.This is a man who has a very high opinion of himself.He has changed the traditions of the Supreme Court to go back centuries.He has installed a bust of himself in the lobby of the Supreme Court and won't tell anyone how much it cost or who paid for it.

This is a man who, like Louise Arbour, is the epitome of the Laurentian elite and everything that is wrong with Canada at the moment.

Oh boy.Okay, let'sback to Alberta here, relating to Canada.So, back here in the West, in Alberta, one of the groups wanting to separate from Canada is claiming to have collected over 300 ,000 signatures on their petition, which is more than enough names to trigger a referendum on the province leaving Canada, though the signatures can't be verified just yet.An Edmonton judge still has to consider a court challenge by a group of First Nations that argues the petition process is unconstitutional.However, this group called Stay Free Alberta did submit their petition to Elections Alberta on Monday, and a decision is expected to come later this week.

So the question of separation could go on a province -wide ballot as early as October, as our Premier, Danielle Smith, has said that she would honour the referendum process if enough names are gathered and verified.So, Brian, how far do you think this could go?Obviously, they have enough names for a referendum.

Well, look, I'm not discounting anything with this process.And you said one of the groups.Welcome to welcome to separatist politics.I've lived through this in Quebec.And you're going to have splinter group after splinter group, you're going to have legal challenges from all sides, everyone trying to stop something or force something, it is going to be an incredibly wild ride.So buckle up and be ready.

But it can also lead to Unpredictable outcomes.And I know a lot of people are saying, oh, well, no, support is stalled.It's never above 30%.It's only a certain type of people that are doing it.There's a lot that can happen between now and then.And I've given Prime Minister Mark Carney credit because I've been told that he has informed his cabinet to take this issue seriously.

I don't think all of them are.Some, yes, not all.I don't think that most of the political establishment in the center of the universe where I sittakes this seriously.You need to take this, you know, if you don't want Alberta to separate, you need to take this seriously, listen to legitimate grievances.And if you don't care, then just ignore it or mock them.

And you can watch the country split up.So there is potential for it to grow.Polling will be dodgy.I'm not saying that in a negative way.I'm not insulting one side or the other.It's just going to be difficult to poll.

So there's a lot that can happen between now and October, if that's when the vote does happen, and just unpredictable and uncertain.Those will be the two watch words.

Yeah, well, certainly five months away, like you said, a lot can happen.And then also on that topic of Alberta separatists, There is another group called the Centurion Project formed by David Parker, formerly of Take Back Alberta.So there's Stay Free Alberta, Take Back Alberta, Centurion Project.It gets a little confusing, but the province's privacy commissioner is expressing deep concern over an unauthorized release of the Alberta list of electors.So the commissioner says the personal information of more than 2 .9 million Albertans has ended up in the hands of this Centurion Project, which is they're also advocating for Alberta to leave the country.So in Elections Canada was saying that it's still not known how the group got the list.

Brian, according to Elections Alberta, there are only a handful of people who can access this list, like politicians and the like.However, the group claims that anyone can run these lists, even from Canada Post.What have you been hearing?What are your thoughts on that?

You know, these lists are highly guarded.I'd love to get my my hands on lists like that.It's a great marketing tool.Lots of people would love to get their hands on those.They're highly guarded.There are rules, even within parties.

Parties have rules about how candycan use them and not sharing them.This is an official government list.There would be even greater rules.The bigger issue is that it was posted to a website and sat there for quite some time.My understanding is journalist Jen Gerson out of Calgary alerted the RCMP at the end of March that this had happened.

Nothing was done for a month.So that's a privacy data breach.That's a problem.Did the group obtain the list properly or did someone bend the rules, break the law?That part we don't know.But the fact is that the list should never have been posted publicly and online.

And anyone saying that this is, you know, this is normal, this is how, no, that's not how things work.And there's going to be a lot of people that are upset.And my advice to the people who are arguing this is fine, and they're also arguing for Alberta separation, you're going to turn off an awful lot of people who might have been on the fence.If you take that kind of position, people that are, well, I can see maybe I would go for separatist vote, you start throwing their personal data around, you're going to have them recoil and say, I'm not sure this is for me.

Yeah, exactly.You know, and then the fact that it's only can be in the hands of certain politicians.Who do you think they got it from?I mean, there's been rumblings that this is the group that used to pull Danielle Smith's strings, whether or not that's true.Who knows?Do you think it could have been her?

My experience with Premier Smith is nobody pulls her strings.And, you know, You know, so, you know, I doubt it's that.That would be a very serious accusation for somebody to make.I'm going to leave that one up to the police.I don't know enough about the inner workings.I haven't dealt with or talked to David Parker in years.

He used to be a political activist in Ottawa at one point, which is how I met him.but haven't spoken to him in years.So I couldn't tell you who or how that list ended up in his hands.But RCMP investigating, not a good look.

Yep.Toronto's own political columnist, Brian Lilly, thanks so much for joining us once again today.Appreciate it.

Thanks for having me.