Barnaby bends the media cycle – Back to Back Barries podcast

I'm Tony Barry.And I'm George Migloginis, obviously not Barry Cassidy.And this is Back to Back Barries, a Gardening Australia podcast.I was going to tell our listeners that Barry and I have had a Kyle and Jackie O type fight and separation, but he's on leave right now and on his way to Garma, and he'll be back in a couple of weeks and will tell us all about it, which we're looking forward to.George, busy week, a lot of news on Hanson.There's been all sorts of issues running with her comments about domestic violence, the podcast still bleeding into the news this week, as well as Barnaby Joyce's interview on the 7 .30 report and the fallout from that.

But more substantively, the US government have announced tariffs, an increase in the rate on Australian goods and services.What's your insight on that?

I was thinking about the Muppet character that would occasionally wander into the show.His name was Crazy Harry and he had this sort of plunger and he'd just blow the joint up randomly.Most people don't remember Crazy Harry because when you think about the most out there character in terms of histrionics, it was Gonzo, always getting fired out of a cannon.And I was thinking this morning as I was scrolling through the headlines, Trump's come back with these tariffs because the ones that the Supreme Court knocked out, He sort of had an interim measure, they've expired, that 10 % is about to expire.And so he's come in with a new tariff, and it's a variable tariff, some get 10, some get 12 and a half, because apparently all these countries, but not the United States, all these countries are running these economies that are sort of pinching dough off the Americans because they're exploiting forced labor.Now, it almost feels like he's trying to troll the global economy with that particular explanation.

But the bottom line on that tariff, and this is why I'm thinking about Crazy Harry, we view Hanson as beinga wrecking ball, and up to a third of the electorate really wants to belt the Australian two -party system, and they're doing a pretty good job.those voters because they're sending multiple signals now and forget the opinion polls.We've had two live events, which is the South Australian election and obviously the Farrabae election.But every now and then Crazy Harry's going to come in because when he makes a decision, he's in everyone's newsfeed.And I just want to jump back to the, I forget the economics for a minute, just think about the raw politics at a domestic level in Australia.

When those Liberation Day tariffs were announced early in the first week of the federal election campaign.So the Labor people knew that their numbers were picking up going into that week, and they'd walk in their response to the Liberation Day tariffs, and it was basically three points.not the act of the friend, an act of economic self -harm, which will hurt American consumers, but Australia wouldn't retaliate.So it was a pretty measured response.Peter Dutton, remember, in the lead up to it, was saying, Albanese's been asleep at the wheel.If it were me, I'd be able to cut a better deal.

No one actually thought, once you saw that announcement, that any country was going to be let off the hook.And the Labor people were still looking at their best case scenario with an eight in front of their seat count.and suddenly an extra 10 seats just fell into their laps.And you wonder where that came from?There was no one thing in the coalition campaign, I thought, in that last federal election that would have would have led ultimately to a blowout like that, that surprised pretty much everyone on all sides.

We saw that in our research.There was certainly the coalition were drifting, having spent two and a half years saying how everything Elba did was a disaster and he was the cause of all the grievance that you're feeling right now.When it came to the crunch, all he had to offer was some chip of petrol for 12 months.But the most significant event was Liberation Day, because suddenlythe markets dropped 10 % and that's since recovered.But we were getting comments and feedbacks regularly from people saying, Yeah, I normally check my superannuation balance twice a year.

I'm doing it twice a week.And we saw Tampa, and you were there covering that, in these terms of great global uncertainty, there is a tendency to go with what you know.Albanese was a known quantity for voters, and they were just like, yep, there's some imperfections, but the opposition aren't offering really anything at all.And I want that sense of stability.But I'm always thinking, George, about the famous Tip O 'Neill comment, all politics is local.Yes.

Some people say all politics is personal, which is also true.And tribal.And tribal.But what do you think the decision on the tariffs means for Australian domestic politics?

I think because of the timing of this one, I think people may well have factored in the permanent chaos of the Trump regime.The domestic politics is probably less about the tariffs, because I think that's now been priced in.The one that would worry me more than the tariffs is this re -escalation of this special operations in Iran, using some Putin language here.I'm still not sure what the goal is from the US.And because that memorandum of understanding has collapsed, and we're into a fortnight's worth of re -bombing targets that are apparently already obliterated.price accrues back above $100 a barrel over the last day or so.

And that's going to force Jim Chalmers and Anthony Albert -Easy to have another really decent heart to heart about what intervention in the short run.Looking at the short to medium term, of course we've got a state election in Victoria later this year, the economic story is anti -incumbent, it's not pro -incumbent.Whereas2025, the first half of 2025, you'd think, weirdly, the gears shifted towards a pro -incumbent narrative.I don't think we're in a pro -incumbent narrative at the moment.And this is why I think You almost need the PM and the treasurer to figure out a way to regain your attention on the thing that they control, which is economic management.

Inflation is political kryptonite.And incumbent governments were falling over.Obviously, the inflation was coming under control at the last election.There's still grievance in the electorate.But if inflation is fueled again, I think it's bad news for the incumbents.And meanwhile, you've got, you know, Pauline Hanson out there with, you know, cannibalizing or atomizing the media cycle right now.

You know, this week she had all those events on nothing of particular substance, but relegating Angus Taylor to, you know, to, you know, a third party.

She's definitely the opposition leader now.But at the moment, she is hogging the microphone and she's hogging everybody's news feeds.Weirdly, she's sort of recycling some of the greatest hits which never charted 30 years ago and 25 years ago.And this time she's getting attention almost from a fresh, sort of fresh, with no sort of historical perspective, media class.And look, there's one thing I want to throw back to you.And I want you to think about, because I've watched this clip a couple of times, I want you to think about Barnaby and the dog.

Was that contrived?

Absolutely.Absolutely it was.But Hanson knows that she's holding the microphone.She did a social media post this week with a photograph of Barnaby's dog on the veranda.And she said, Barnaby's dog has got more media this week than Angus Taylor, which was humiliating for Taylor.

And it's too true.

And it's true.And she's alsoa fundraiser.So you can buy these One Nation dog leads for $15 on their website.So they're making money out of it as well.But Barnaby is many things.

And I'm not a fan of him.And I subscribe to the Peter Costello view that Barnaby was the beginning of the end of the centre -right project in Australia, because he was someone who always took credit for the good economic management and the benefits of that to the public, but internally argued against every decision needed to be made to get you there.

And he's crossed the floor more times without actually leaving the party until he did more recently.And probably Billy Hughes.

The great failure of Liberal Party leaders, coalition leaders, over the last decade is, including Howard, they've encouraged him, placated him, and in some cases applauded him.Abbott used to say he was the greatest retail politician in Australia.Well, he's net minus 20.So the data doesn't back up Abbott on that.But I think when you look at what she's doing to the media cycle and relegating the opposition to almost a minor role in a sitcom at the moment.I think with Barnaby, he's very, very good at media.

He knows how to bend the media cycle.He knows how to deflect And he also knows what his base loves.The general mainstream Australia he's not very good at in terms of winning that critical swing vote.But he does play to his base.And I think he just took the piss out of Sarah Ferguson and the ABC.I think he just sort of...

By the way, I didn't hear any dog barking either.I think he just completely manufactured it.And he knew that that was great social media content for his base.and it's been shared endlessly.His base don't like the ABC.We've done polling on the ABC as an institution in Australia.

and it's net positive territory overall in Australia, which these days is rare for any institution.However, it was very partisan.So Labor and Greens voters was net positive, but Coalition and One Nation voters was very net negative.So he doesn't actually have any swing voters watching him.And I think he just sort of thought, this is a great way to sort of deflect.And he's done so very successfully.

It was absolutely contrived.

I watched it a couple of times and he didn't look flustered doing it.No.And he turned this way and then he turned back.Sorry, obviously you can't see it unless you're watching the video.And he didn't miss a beat.Oh, sorry, it was the dog.

Yeah.

Remember that poor guy during the COVID lockdown?I met him at a writer's festival.He was that finance journal and the kid comes rolling in.He's a beautiful kid.And you could tell that that's what happens when that stuff happens.If somebody enters the room, you've got a kid peeking around the corner.

If you're doing a Zoom, everybody knows the story.If a cat's just jumped up or the dogs come in and actually is gnawing at your leg or whatever.There was none of that vibe.It was like almost, it almost felt rehearsed.Yeah.Yeah.

Yeah.

He's, uh, and of course the other sort of big news this week of One Nation was Pauline Hanson's comments about domestic violence.Obviously it's a one way street, not a two way street.But what did you make of that?Is that going to hurt her?

So you probably know more than I do in terms of the groups, but I would have thought that her base, that thing still resonates with her base, especially the older male voter.And I'm old enough to remember when that sort of family court angle that she had been pushing finally got in the coalition party room and it was credited with losing a couple of seats going into the 2007 election.Not the sort of thing you'd be playing from, I'm only talking about the politics at the moment.I'm going to get to the politics.moral heart of the issue in a sec, but a lot of these greatest hitsthe way they sound to me like she thinks that, well, when I was at five and 10, I could say these things and this was good for my base.

And suddenly my polls are tracking at 25 to 30, I can still say these things.I'm not sure that that's where the increase in the votes come from.People haven't suddenly decided that that domestic violence is a two -way street.By the way, you wouldn't want your political system, and this is, I'll get to the moral core of this argument, you wouldn't want your political system to prioritize the views of the person throwing the punch.It's the person at the other end of the punch that really the system needs to be worried about.And there's a bit of a double standard here on the hard right of politics here.

Do you want to intervene in Indigenous communities where domestic violence and sexual abuse is an issue?But apparently when it happens in non -Indigenous communities, the guy needs to be given a break.because of cost of living pressure.It's not the way you want to run your country.I'll throw to you in terms of what you think it does to her base, whether any of this stuff violates their idea of the contract with her, which is smash the system.

I think obviously if she was chasing 50 plus 1 % of the vote, that becomes a big problem because it was offensive and there would be supporters of hers at the moment who would take offense at that.But We're in an unorthodox era right now.I think people are still using the orthodoxies of the past and sort of thinking, oh, that's going to shave off vote.I think there is a scar tissue effect, a cumulative scar tissue effect, of some of these comments and some of her statements.And she's offering more of a bullseye for her opponents to hit.But I think a lot of people are missing what's underpinning her vote.

What's holding it up is this entrenched pessimism in the electorate.And Phil Currie wrote about it this week.Over 50 % of majority of Australians think Australia's heading in the wrong direction.Now you go back to the last budget that Costello delivered, it was 65 % right direction.When we ask, because it comes up in focus groups,do you think the next generation will be better off, worse off, or the same, 63 % say worse off.

So it's not just like things are grim now.They just think it's generationally stuffed.And that's what's fueling her vote.So I think people are getting very tactical what it's going to do.Will she start losing vote share with some of these comments?Yeah, I think it will have a cumulative effect, but it's not going to see her vote collapse below the teens, I don't think.

And that is a big issue, especially if most of that's coming off the coalition part.That's a big issue for what used to be the two -party system.

Yeah.And again, a person from the Howard government era, a very senior person, made this argument to me, which I thought was very valid.And it gels with all the research that we're doing right now.They sort of said, look, Hanson won from 96 to 98.She tried to win the seat of Blair and lost.And then she sort of went away.

Obviously, the Queensland election and a few other events occurred.And she was never far from a microphone, and occasionally she'd have a splash.But then she sort of got re -elected in 2016.Friends said to me, they sort of said, you know, people overlook the fact that during the Howard government, wage growth was 24 .6%.And they said that kind of muted the One Nation support because people were generally feeling wealthier.Most budgets, there were income tax cuts, and there were actually generally interest rate cuts.

So there was a sort of three -way effect that was making people feel richer and more confident, which is why the right direction was 65%.And I remember people saying in focus groups back then when I was at Crosby Tech, they were like, well, you know, if all goes wrong in my career and job and the absolute worst happens, I can go over to Kalgoorlie and drive trucks for $150 ,000 a year.This is back in 20 years ago.And, you know, I can send money back home, but, you know, we'll never be destitute.We won't have the bank foreclosing us or have our resources.up to a price that we can't afford.

That sort of conversation has completely changed.People are hugely anxious in the focus groups.So I think there's these predictions of her demise based on some of her comments, I think is getting a little fanciful.

Yeah.You mentioned Queensland.That's an interesting thing because I had another look at the history just to remind myself.We've actually, as I said, we've got a couple of live samples.We've got two elections this year.We've got the by -election in Faroe and of course the South Australian state election.

I had to remind myself that the primary vote that Hanson's One Nation Party got in South Australia, just earlier this year was almost identical to the primary vote they got in Queensland at their very first state election in 1998, which was just under 23%.And slightly higher in SA, it's 22 .9.And in Queensland, it's 22 .7.They get four seats in South Australia, but there's a lot of action in all directions and mostly in the regions, but Labor are picking up seats off the Libs, remember, in Adelaide.And the Liberal Party's left with just the one seat.in Adelaide.

Bragg.I was the chair of the Bragg Liberal Party.So I'm taking credit for the win that we had there 25 years later.

Absolutely.Absolutely.And then, but outside of Adelaide, it's a score draw between the Liberals and One Nation.There's also some independents there.Looking back to our Queensland election in 98, and that was for me, because I was in the press gallery at the time, and you're obviously contemporary this year as well, there was, going into that state election, a disbelief that hence that the polls would be validated at the election.And I remember there was some Queensland Liberal National, well they were then Liberal National, National and Liberal Coalition saying she's not going to win a single seat.

I remember Bill O 'Chee said she'd not win a single seat.Colleagues of mine at The Australian were thinking, nah, she's not going to get a single seat.She got 11.Yeah.Cold, off the cold start.Six from Labor, six from Labor, five from the Nationals.

The Nationals lost a sixth to an Independent.But how did Labor form government in minority?Labor picked up six from the Liberals.And I remember straight after it, John Howard had two policies, two big policies, and you recall on the table, one was the unfinished business of the WIC 10 -point plan, which was still stored in the Senate.He hadn't cut his deal with Brian Harradine.The other one, which they'd been working on for a year, was the goods and services tax.

Remember which button they pressed?

Yep.

foot to the floor on the GST.Now, Mark Texter's told me this for the record many years later, but things that people like Tex would tell you on background and Howard and Costello would tell you on background at the time, it was a very simple choice once they saw what Hansen did.to their base in the city, which in the sense that the one city is Brisbane, because the Libs lost six seats to Labor.They had to repolarize the electorate, they used the phrase repolarize the electorate, into a left versus right contest on the economy, something that she couldn't compete on.Because whilst And Tex said this, whilst Howard was competing with her on her nebulous cultural, then nebulous cultural agenda, he couldn't outflank her to the right.And this is the thing that Angus Taylor, he really needs to bone up on his history.

Because Howard, if that John Howard then made the mistake of sort of toying with the idea of preferencing, preferencing is a completely different story now because the base won't wear, what remains as a coalition base, won't wear preferencing labour against One Nation, but back then he had to repolarise the electorate.Still lost seats, but saved the base in the capital cities.Now this is, when I look back...today, to that, especially that last South Australian election, and also looking at Farrah, there isn't a base left in the capitals for the Liberal parties, you're well aware.So the competition, this is the one bit that's really fundamentally different to the late nineties, early noughties, in terms of the competition to the right.The other thing obviously is we're looking at Labour incumbents, not coalition incumbents.

Howard could repolarise the electorate.because he could do a GST package.

But that's the thing.He could.And Tex was brilliant.He's retired now, but he was a brilliant strategist and pollster.And it was a great privilege to work for him and with him.But also, he was dealing with politicians who would carry the economic argument.

And they loved talking about it.Costello, Reif, there's a whole bunch of them.Now, you always get the impression Dutton preceding Angus, was always reluctant to get into the political fight on the economy, which is why they sort of did the petrol thing and then just retreated and they kept on sort of going to synagogue visits and that was all very valid.

By the way, they also decided to oppose the tax cuts in the lockup.No process at all, just, oh, we'll oppose Labor's tax cuts.And the Labor people went, what did they just do?

And I look at the current crop right now, look, Tim Wilson and Andrew Bragg are two that do like talking about the economy.But they're sort of, you know, they're fairly unique in the coalition right now.Most of them like engaging in culture wars and trans issues and all that sort of stuff.And that's their safe space.And of course, that's sky after dark likes.But those substantive policy arguments about the economy, I just don't see those sort of people anymore.

You know, and it wasn't just Costello and Howard and Reith and all those sort of fellows.There was also Tony Smith, who was a senior advisor to Costello, then later an MP.There were quite a few of them.And I think that's sort of one of the funniestproblems is, Tex as a strategist and pollster could have given that message about repolarizing the electorate on the economy, but he had to hit the cattle to be able to do that.

Yeah.And of course, once he left the room, because he wasn't making economic policy choices, this is the other thing that changed fundamentally and it begins under the Rudd -Gillard government.The pollster would walk in and give them policy advice.Yeah.Tex would say, repolarize the electorate on our strong suit, which is the economy.But he didn't tell them what should be in and out of the GST base.

Certainly some of those Labor smarties that lit the fuse under the government.And the other thing that Albanese did point out, that a lot of people agitating for that challenge came in in the 2007 wave.So no corporate memory at all.

No corporate memory at all.And this is how the coalition used to operate.Because obviously if Howard said to Tex and Linton, who was the a federal director at the time, should I introduce a GST?Polling -wise, I would have said absolutely not.But the role of a pollster, if it works properly, is not to give you policy ideas.It's to sort of say, mate, this is the policy we're doing.

you work out how we sell it.What are the messages that persuade the persuadable, the compelling and powerful messages?And the GST debate, people were, as they always are, and more so now, it must be said, but even back then, they were cynical about a government talking about, well, you're going to be better off.With the income tax cuts and the introduction of the GST and the removal of the wholesale sales tax, you'll be better off.People were like, I'm not sure about that.Some were thought, maybe, possibly, but it wasn't a very powerful message.

But the message that worked for them was, this will be better off for the country.This is the national interest.So, and you'll recall, George, you covered it, like suddenly Howard and Costello changed their messaging from, you'll be better off personally to, you know, this is, do it for the country.

Yeah.Cause it was one of the, one of the lessons I obviously learned coming out of Fightback in the early nineties, they did try and, Fightback had everyone as a winner as well.Um, but it was easy for Keating to unpick because there was, there was some spending cuts there and you just focus on the, focus on the nasties.And he matched the goodies in, in the early nineties with, matched the equivalent, he had an equivalent tax cut.Uh, remember what that tax cut package was called?

a new tax system, wasn't it?

No, that was coalitions.Keatings in 93 was one nation.Hanson actually nicked the name for her party.Yeah, the coalition one was a new tax system.And I guess my question, looking at the same but different scenario today with a labour incumbent and a cost of living crisis, and a prime minister who's not majorly disliked, but just not a popular prime minister, he's sort of a near enough is good enough, a bit of that Howard, around 96, 97, when he wasn't, his approval rating wasn't that good.How he responds to the possibility that every seat is not necessarily in play, but they're going in all directions.

And then in the capital cities, not so much that Hanson's the threat, but independents or closer you get to the CBD Greens.It'd be a diabolical map to look at regardless of which side was in charge at the moment.But from Labor's perspective, one side of them would say, I'd like to be in our shoes, not Angus Taylor's.But another part of it would look at this scenario and think the country's almost at the point of being ungovernable.

Yeah.I mean, Albanese's not a popular leader.He's net minus 19 on our last poll for the Fin Review.For context, Dutton in the final week of the campaign was net minus 20.So, you know, people sort of label Dutton as toxic.Well, you know, Albanese is in the neighborhood.

Yeah.He's benefited by the fact that the coalition are a complete shambles.And he could potentially take some credit for that, and Paul Erickson, for putting them in that position where they've got a 94 -seat buffer.And, you know, the rise of One Nation has certainly suited him.But those things that we spoke about that's underpinning the One Nation vote, you know, the One Nation monster is coming after Labor.And they know that.

And Albanese's speech at the national convention really zeroed in on one nation, not the coalition.Again, they've relegated to minor role status.And they recognize that if the economy starts getting harder because of global factors, but also they're still spending too much.I think most economists are unanimous in that regard.And the savings they've built in at the last budget are NDIS.which we'll wait and see, but every projection they've ever made on NDIS has been out by around 400%.

So I'm not holding my breath on that.But if those sort of pushes up inflation, and as we said before, that is the kryptonite for all incumbent governments right now.

too much down the history time tunnel for you, but there was the observation coming at the end of the post -war boom, the early seventies with the oil price shocks in around 1973, 74.Ian McFarlane did make this point years ago that every government that was in power before the oil shock was out at the next election.Every government.The change of government in Australia, obviously with the full Whitlam government, change of government in the UK.In fact, a couple of changes of government in the UK, they went nuts as they usually do when things get difficult.US, obviously there was Notwithstanding the impeachment, there was a change of government from Republic to Democrats.

So the weird thing about the last election, it was a pro -incumbent election with some very special circumstances, with crazyHarry Donald Trump.But the next election, if you've still got sticky inflation, the Reserve Bank not able to provide interest rate relief for cost of living pressures, actually adding to the burden in the short run because they want to knock off inflation, and Labor, because of its budget position, unable to do the sorts of things it could in previous cycles, which is basically put money in your hand, and then almost dare the coalition to oppose, and One Nation want to still talk about social issues, transgender insurgencies or whatever it is that is their particular ban and bonnet at the time, it's harder if the budget isn't in good shape.Now, from Chalmers' perspective, you'd be thinking ahead to the 2028 federal election.Obviously, you're going to go full term.The next budget, it actually has to be a really vicious budget to be able to bank something that you can give back to voters in the run up to the next election.

What does that do to your vote in the short term?

Yeah.I said last year that 2026 would be a pollster's picnic, and I stand by that.But it's time for a break, and then we'll come back and we'll look at the mailbag.Thank you.Well, welcome back.George, an email from Will from California, and he says, hope you're both well.

Apologies, but as a Greek, I cannot help but be slightly provocative.So this one is definitely to you, George.I truly believe that the ascendance of political polling has diminished political discourse in Australia, present company excluded, of course.So apart from Will trying to undermine my living and steal food from my baby son's mouth, What do you think about Will's point?

Well, do you get the impression that he still wants to hear your take at the end of this?I hope so.Interesting, because it does remind me of something that I did a few years ago when I was still a daily journalist.And it happened in and around the time of the 2010 election.And I think that was the election where certainly national politics jumps.the shark when you roll a prime minister because you get anxious about a couple of opinion polls.

Now, that was the period, and I was alluding to it earlier, that was also the period where pollsters within political organizations felt that they could walk in and give policy advice.Because remember, one of the problems that Labor had going into that election is Kevin Rudd panicked and shelved the emissions trading scheme.which both sides of politics had supported going into the 2007 campaign.Now, Upholster operating in that day, and Will, I haven't forgotten your question, but I just want to start with a bit of history.Upholster operating in that day would have said, we've got a boss, we've got a problem on this.The boss will then have to figure out how to fix it.

Yeah.So obviously not what happened to that caucus.And we know that the revolving door had a good a deal of energy, it was spinning partly because of the news poll.And of course, poor old Malcolm Turnbull, of all people, who was supposed to have elevated the debate when he rolls Tony Abbott, does cite the loss of 30, the so -called loss of 30 news polls in a row as a reason to topple the leader.Of course, his 30 came up a couple of years later, didn't it?And then it went to 40 before he finally lost his job.

So that part of it is, before you start knocking the journo, it started with politicians and it started with the parties.Now the journos, of course, And I was one of them and Annabel Crabb were another.We took a vow not to report opinion polls.I remember.And I remember colleagues at the Oz going, mate, mate, everyone's reading our poll.Why wouldn't you want to add your voice to the thing that's sort of unique in sort of our coverage?

Well, the thing was unique, but I just wanted to force myself as a journalist to become this sort of much more, even more serious journalist.nerdy, fewer reader kind of policy guy.But not reporting the polls doesn't change the fundamental issue here, which is the behavioral change that I reckon I noticed about 15 years ago, which is in the system itself.So you know they're reacting to it, so you're almost compelled to keep your eye on them, even if you pretend you're not covering them.And in my case, I would say that I could tell you that the aggregate of the polls have recorded, even though I'm not reporting this technically, Hanson's vote's come off its peak.It looks like it's come off its peak, but I'm not sure that the trend is pointing down.

But her vote seems to have peaked at just under 30.And the last month or so since the press club, that point seems to have gone back to the liberal pile, not to Labor.Yes, it's done what it's done to political discourse, but I wouldn't be bopping the journo on the head about it.No.I'd start where the problem started, and it started when that Labor caucus spun the revolving door.

Yeah.It became clear to me, though, was when Rudd was PM and he was ascendant.And look, it's been reported subsequently since that he was never the most popular figure internally, but they had gone through some pretty rough times, Latham, and then back to Beazley, who was a very significant figure, and Howard dispatched of him, and it would have been fairly despairing for Labor supporters.But a Labor shadow said to me that Rudd's best friend is Newspol.And at the moment he's killing it, but they said as soon as NewsPoll deserts him, he's going to be friendless.And I think that was certainly true in Rudd's case.

Yeah.And about nine months later he was gone.But I think to go back to Will's question and defend my profession, I think with the fascination with polling at the moment is thatWe are in this unique tribalism at the moment, and a nation of smaller and smaller tribes.And back when we were in the gallery in the late 90s and early 2000s, Australia was pretty homogenous.What people thought in Cairns and Townsville and Mackay, where I'm from, was pretty consistent with Melbourne.

There was this oddity where Lindsay Tanner, who was a good local MP in the seat of Melbourne, came under a bit of pressure from the Greens, who were getting perilously close to 10 % and a little bit above.And we all sort of thought, It's never going to be four to the Greens, but you know.And then, of course, at one point, the Greens won four seats.But this tribalism that sees One Nation now polling in the 20s, and Labor in the 20s, and the Coalition in the 20s, is making a very fragmented media market.And everybody wants to know now, what do people think?And it's not just political journalists and political junkies.

It's also actually corporates.And in the rise of populism, where a party, especially like One Nation, can come out with a populist policy, like capping insurance premiums, which comes up in focus groups quite a lot, because they've received their premium, and they're like, bloody hell, that's gone up $1 ,500.And they sort of say, these things should be CPI capped.Now, of course, the fact is that more car theft drives up the premiums, because we've all got to share the losses.But as a superficial policy, people come up with that unprompted.So if one nation were to come out, I've probably given them an idea here, but if they were to come out and sort of say, we're going to cap insurance, that would fly.

And, um, I think that's why people are sort of really keen to know what the hell people are thinking and all the different tribes, because, you know, we're just not a homogenous country anymore.

I don't think we ever will be.And just on that point, the polarisation, the tribalisation and also identities by place now are much more keenly held, whether you're in a city, middle ring, outer city.provincial town, gentrifying, not gentrifying, regional, rural.And I think those identities have been accelerated since COVID.I think they're always there in the Federation.But I think having had an acceleration of those identities through lockdown, and remember the way people used to relate to each other in lockdown?

If you were sort of zero or low case numbers, and you were in stage two or stage three restrictions, and you pretty much moved around, and you saw in the news feed that Melbourne has gone back into lockdown, you go, ah, bloody Melbournians, serves them right.No one felt that empathy that they used to feel save a bushfire broke out.And everyone was Victorian or everyone was during Black Saturday or everyone was Queenslander during the Queensland floods in 2011.So that part of it, I've actually been, I'm not puzzled by it, but it feels like colonial identities have sort of resurfaced.And the idea that a leader of a political party could speak on behalf of all Australians, whether that was theoretically possible in the past when you had a more homogenized nation and a two -party system competing around the center, even then I could pick 10 character traits that a prime minister had that didn't resonate with what you would thought would be the median voter.But still, in those days, probably a bit more obedient.

Yeah.Mate, you see it in focus groups all the time.You know, 25 years ago, people just in folks who describe themselves as Sydneysider, sometimes a New South Welshman.Now they'll go, I'm from North Shore, or I'm from the Shire, or I'm a Westie.And so there's this identification now, and it speaks to the tribalism.But George, I could speak for ages about this.

You've got a new book coming out soon, which we wish you all the best for.And hopefully you might come in and have a chat to us about that when it's published.

Thank you.Um, it was great to be back and, uh, it was a conversation that went further than I expected.

Yeah.This podcast was produced by Daniel Simo and Karishma Luthia.The executive producer is Hannah Parks.I'm Tony Barry.And I'm George Miclogenis.And this is Back to Back Barries, a Guardian Australia podcast.