BATRA’S BURNING QUESTIONS: Any leverage for Canada as clock ticks on CUSMA?

No deal.That's what Canada is facing as the July 1st deadline looms for the revisiting of CUSMA or USMCA, whatever you want to call it.Canada still does not have anything in hand.Hello, everyone.I'm Adrienne Batchelor.With me are Laurie Goldstein and Brian Lilly.

We've been talking about this July 1st deadline for a long time now, Brian, and now we're here.And Canada is still not in any position where we can say solidly, this is something that we can work towards and renegotiate and get done.In fact, we're going, it seems to me that it's like we're going in the opposite direction.Prime Minister Carney is meeting with all these democratic hopefuls, which he'll tell us about, but not meeting and sitting with the very people who are actually at the table.

Yeah, so Politico, we'll give credit to them, has the story that when Josh Shapiro was in town for a meeting with Ontario Premier Doug Ford, he was in town trying to drum up some business in Toronto, that Mark Carney also had a meeting with him.That wasn't on anyone's agenda.It didn't show up on Carney's itinerary.And it's the third time that Carney's been meeting with prominent Democrats.I mean, they position Josh Shapiro as a potential presidential candidate.I think he should be, and I've talked to people who were in the meetings with him in Toronto, and they say he is the real deal, he's a good guy, but we know the problem in the Democratic Party and electing a Jewish leader at the national level.

Never going to happen, not in today's Democratic Party.But why is Carney meeting with all these leading Democrats?Remember, the liberals denounced Jamil Javani and any conservative going down to meet with American officials saying like, this is traitorous, this is awful, you shouldn't be doing it.But hey, let's let's meet with the the opposition.to the president just ahead of a you know trade deal an inflection point to use a very carney -esque term i don't get it pick a lane either you believe in talking to everyone on each side of the border or you don't but look on july 1st there's three options they're gonna have a virtual meeting on canada day between the three countries, Canada, the U .S.S.

and Mexico, we've already said that we want option number one, which is renew for another 16 years.Option number two is withdraw from the agreement, which Donald Trump keeps talking about, but I don't think they will do.And option number three is the current agreement continues for its remaining 10 years, but we go into a series of annual reviews, which is what I think will happen, and that will create uncertainty.So what are we doing in the midst of this?Well, where the liberals are leaking to the Toronto Star that they're still going to go ahead with charging streamers Netflix tax to pay for Canadian content, which every party in the United States disagrees with and says they actually say it violates Kuzma.So that's an irritant.

We continue to say, well, I think we're going to buy the Gripen instead of the F -35.That's an irritant.Like we're adding irritants to the situation.instead of trying to clear them out of the way.And when it comes to, you know, issues like critical minerals, which the Americans say, we want your critical minerals.What's Mark Carney doing?

He's not talking to the Americans about that.He's not making them an offer saying, hey, take those tariffs off our steel, our aluminum, and our autos, and we'll craft a deal that gives you more access to oil, more access to critical minerals.No, he's going around the world and signing deals with Germany and France and Italy and elsewhere to say, we'll sell you our critical minerals.And Washington's like, we'd love that.Can we talk?No, he doesn't want to talk to them.

So you've got Trump that has shut down talks and doesn't want to talk to us.But Carney is talking to everyone but the Americans.We're headed for a disaster on this.10 years of annual reviews with nothing but uncertainty for the business community, which means, well, good luck trying to get new investment.

It's mind -boggling sort of watching this all unfold, Laurie.I mean, Canada's negotiators, they had to put a new person in because that individual wasn't doing well with the Americans and whatnot.But in any good negotiation, you have leverage.You have something that the other person wants.Brian mentions, of course, with respect to the access to the critical minerals, certainly something the Americans would enjoy having.But what is Canada's leverage at this point?

Where do we sit in terms of saying, yes, we can comfortably negotiate, renegotiate Kuzma, but this is what Canada is going to get.This is what Canada is going to need when it appears to me and most people that it's the U .S.with the most, most of the leverage.What's your view on that?

Well, look, the things that Brian mentioned can be used as leverage.You can say, you know, you can leak one thing out to the media, but then you can do another.And things like the streaming services issue and the F -35s are one of those issues.To me, like on the F -35s, for heaven's sake, every level of our military has said the F -35 is the one to attack.We're already committed to some F -35s.Um, so, so now we're going to sort of maybe like have a dual, like what the F -35s are going to fly in North America and the Gripen's going to fly in Europe.

Like what?going on?But I think Brian's right.What's going to happen on July 1st is nothing much.They're going to go, OK, it renews year after year, and we're going to review it every year.And I think what we get in the end will not be as good as what we have.

That's obvious.And it's like, but it will be this continuing uncertainty.And the irony is that the big uncertainty right now isn't the KUSMA compliant stuff, which is 85 % of our exports.It's those sectoral tariffs on aluminum, steel, and other things that are vital to our economy.And so I think what we're looking at right now is a perpetual damper on those sectors of our economy.which are so crucial to economic growth.

And I just, all of this to me goes back to the, it's when you have economic decisions and political decisions.And the economic decision of Mark Carney, excuse me, was that elbows up, elbows up.And so they have to maintain that when the practical thing is to sit down and calmly talk about, okay, It's basically, it's a trading relationship.We'll give you this, you give us that.And we don't really know what's going on.We don't know, like when they leak to the media, oh, we might buy the Grippens, or we're going to have a lower streaming tax.

Is that real?Or is that, and in fairness, the Americans do the same thing, right?I mean, Trump every day, I might sign, I won't sign, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.I don't think there's much danger of the apocalyptic scenario.which is that on July 1st, the Americans go, we're out to Canada.or Mexico or both.

Here's your six months notice.I don't think that's going to happen.But I think what we're going to have because of the way this whole thing has been handled is just a continuing drag on our economy that won't stop unless and until it gets resolved.

Brian, I want Carney negotiating and nowhere near Canada's next FIFA World Cup match because when he showed up last time, we lost.Now, in fairness, he showed up the other time, we did win.But that said, stay away from soccer and stick to the negotiating on Kuzma.But, you know, he's just wrapped up a parliamentary session.Global News did an analysis of his showing up for question period.It was over the course of the one year, he showed up 29 % of the time.

He's not interested in the cut and thrust of daily political stuff.He does appear that he wants to deal with the bigger issues.I'm not sure though, on this.He understands either the politics of it, or he's getting the right advice on it.And my impression is, Brian, that he doesn't know which way to go with negotiating.

I would say that he does get the politics of it.And the politics of it is if he keeps fighting with Donald Trump, he stays high in the polls.Pierre Poliev stays low in the polls.And so a fight with Trump and not negotiating works for him.You know, I hear it every time I write saying, we should be looking to make a deal.I hear from Carney supporters who have replaced the true and untypes saying, we don't want any truckner trade with the Americans.

We don't need them.Let's make everything here.That is simply not feasible.And the steel industry would tell you it's not feasible.The aluminum industrywould tell you it's not feasible, the auto industry would tell you it's not feasible, he should be looking to lift those 232 tariffs.

Instead of going to SoFi Stadium or Los Angeles Stadium, as FIFA insisted be called, he should go to Washington and try and get a deal because the Mexicans are likely to get some relief on their 232 tariffs.They're getting the same steel, aluminum, auto tariffs that we're getting.They're going to get some relief is my prediction and Canada will not because we're not even attempting.We're having some casual conversations, but we're frozen out for the most part.Other than Dominique LeBlanc and Janice Charette having talks now and again with Jameson Greer, we are frozen out in official Washington.And that's a bad place to be.

We don't have to surrender to get a deal.Do we have to offer something to get a deal?Absolutely.But like I said, OK, we're going to buy the F -35 and we'll give you, we'll sign an offload agreement for you to get first right of refusal on buying a bunch of these critical minerals that we're about to develop in Quebec, in Ontario, in northern Alberta.We should be doing that sort of thing.Instead, according to Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, we're not even making an offer because too many Canadians think, well, making an offer means you have to give something up.

You can make an offer where you propose giving them something that benefits you as well.But I fear too many Canadians view the negotiations as negotiating from a point of weakness.We do have leverage, Adrienne.We absolutely have it.We have to use it in a positive and constructive way, not a negative one.And I fear Carney's doing the latter.

Laurie, what does success in this look like for Canada?

Well, success would be the status quo, that everybody gathers until the end.and says, okay, we're good for another X number of years.That's not going to happen.So I think the idea right now is to minimize the damage.And, you know, and that's a tough thing to do.And things like, you know, Carney doesn't go enough to question period.

Personally, I don't care.You know, question period has become a daily farce.And it's not really something to me.It's theater.It's good for pollsters.It's good for us in the media because it's conflict.

But I don't think it's, and the other thing is that he gets mad when he's in private.I don't care.I mean, what, like, like Stephen Harper, like, like he's a tough boss.He gets mad if people don't have their files in order.

I think that boosts his polling popularity, Laurie.I think the general public looks at that and goes, Yeah, good.

Good, yeah.And also, you know, Harper was not known to be the quiet, the calmest guy in cabinet, but he knew the files.And so to me, with Carney, I think Brian hit on it.This problem of maintaining the fiction of elbows up, when the reality is we got a deal now.and the fear on the liberals that if Canada is seen as, if the Americans start saying, yeah, actually, you know, we are moving, then, well, then the very people he created to fear it are going to react to that.People like us are going to go, oh, they're dealing?

That's good.You know, good.So in a way, he's kind of, the liberals have kind of created their own monster.And so they have to maintain the fiction that at the end of this process, We're going to be independent.We're going to manufacture all our goods at home.We don't need the Americans.

It's utter nonsense.And so, yeah, we can increase our foreign trade.That's a good idea.But it's just in a way, bizarre way, Carney is a victim of his own success.And the issue becomes, OK, it's been over a year now that you've been in power.We just saw what happened to a very initially very popular prime minister in the UK.

who went down in flames because nothing got better.People wanted him to, you know, deal with the economy, deal with other issues, like immigration, which they sort of did.But after a time, people just went, that's enough.And he's no longer, he's resigning.And I think that's a warning for Carney that, you know, yeah, everything's good now.Your numbers are high.

If there was an election held today, which there isn't going to be, you'd win a majority.But what about a year from now?What about two years from now?Unless things are economically better, I think a lot of people are going to go, you were the guy who said you could make the deals to enrich our economy.Where is it?If he's successful, great.

If he isn't, I think there'll be a price to pay.

Well, the clock is ticking on whether or not Canada is going to get a deal.Will that happen?It needs to happen for the future growth of our economy.Let us know what you think in the comments below.Like this video and subscribe to our YouTube channel and go to thetorontosun .com.

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