Burnham batters Reform - next stop Number 10? | The News Agents

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He's turning on reform that they can't now win by elections.They've reached probably the peak of their support and it's going down.

He is furious with the way that Burnham is behaving.He doesn't believe that he's serious.He doesn't believe that his policies are serious.He doesn't believe that he's got a real programme.He thinks he's just vibes.We found one person, weirdly, who liked Keir Starmer so much they were voting reform.

Force a contest where everyone is ripping each other apart and for which I suspect the Labour Party will find very little forgiveness from the electorate.

And I mean it.The word Makerfield in the future must be known as a byword for the change that came to British politics.This is the moment.We've been on a path for 40 years that simply hasn't worked for people and places in this part of the world.And this now is the moment.the change moment.

We have an opportunity to turn the tide, to make the country feel like it's working again, to make people see that politics can make a positive difference, to make people feel hope again.That is the main thing I think we need in this country right now, for people to feel a sense of hope.

Get used to that voice because you might just be listening to Britain's next Prime Minister.Andy Burnham won more votes last night than all the other parties put together.Does that make his rise to the top job now look inevitable?

Well, not if Keir Starmer has his way.He has warned that a leadership challenge will tear apart our country and our movement.But 100 Labour MPs have now publicly called on him to go.Is anyone listening to the Prime Minister anymore?Welcome to the News Agents.

The News Agents.

It's Jon.It's Maitlis.

It's Lewis.And Annie Burnham, as you will have heard already, didn't just win the Makerfield by -election, he stormed the Makerfield by -election.He exceeded all expectations, frankly, of what most analysts and his fellow politicians and Labour Party members thought was possible.Just to run you through the figures.Burnham got nearly 25 ,000 votes.That is an absolute majority in of those who voted, of nearly 55%.

That is up 10%, nearly 10 percentage points, on the general election performance.Now, bear in mind that the general election performance obviously took place in the context of an overall Labour landslide.And this by -election, two years later, is taking place in the context of Labour being at their lowest point, sustained point, in the polls in living memory, arguably ever.And so for Burnham to achieve that, to face those political headwinds in a seat which reform, don't listen to their spin this morning.They're saying, oh, it was always been a Labour seat.This was always a tough battle for us.

It was their 13th target seat.They barely needed much of a swing at all to take it.And in a situation where Labour nationally, as I say, is doing so badly, I think it is proof positive.proof of concept that only Andy Burnham with his peculiar and particular political profile and political purchase in that part of the world could have won it.Remember, one other fact, only six weeks ago, six weeks ago in this same constituency, in these same wards, Reform got over 50 % of the vote.Six weeks later, just after the Labour Party was wiped out, Burnham, as I say, is getting 50%.

It is a 23 point swing.And this is why Labour MPs, whosix weeks ago had something of a near death sort of political experience, they're now looking at Burnham and thinking, my word, have we actually found the medicine?

Yeah, and it's worth looking at what has happened to some of the other parties overnight to get a real picture of just how the electorate in those various towns of Makefield chose to vote because the Conservatives lost their deposit, the Lib Dems got around 150 votes.

You're kind of in friends and family territory there, aren't you?

Yeah, just I think slightly more than Count Binface and the Greens also very small numbers.But I think to think that this is a sign that they didn't do well themselves is to miss the point.What you had was a concerted effort, certainly by the progressive parties, but presumably also by conservative voters to say, this is going to be a block reform vote.We decided that Burnham is the preferable choice here, even if it's not our first party.And so where he won was not just people who might have gone to reform but came back because it was him, who were Labour, had been pissed off with Keir, but came back because it was him, but all the other parties who were very much on a stop -reform agenda.a ticket, I think.

And it has stopped reform.And the extraordinary thing about what happened overnight is Farage's little video wall, where he's standing in something slightly akin to a field of wheat.And he's basically describing how disappointed he was with the result.And telling off the 2000 or so voters who went for Restore, Restore did have a pretty good night.They gained 7%, right, which was where the polls had them.Nobody really believed them, but it seemed that that really upset Farage himself.

Emphatic win for Andy Burnham with a vote share that nobody could quite see coming.In many ways he's a popular local mayor, just as Boris Johnson was a very popular mayor in London just a few years ago.But what really happened here is it was vote Burnham, get Starmer out, which of course was our campaign message leading up to the locals on the 7th of May.So we were slightly hoist with our own petard.As for the reform vote share, well, I thought we got 18 ,000 votes.We got just shy of 16.

So I'm disappointed by that, no question about it.But I would say this.There's a couple of thousand voters there who would normally have gone out and voted reform that voted restore.And I would say directly to them, what do you want?We are the challenger party to the left in this country.And I would urge you to think again.

I really, really would.

It's so interesting.It's like you have been very naughty boys and girls.You should not have voted restore.You should have voted reform.And I won't have put up with it for any longer.And look, you know, the line from the Italian job comes to mind about what Andy Burnham did last night, which is, you know, you were meant to blow the bloody doors off.

And Andy Burnham took it apart.And I think that this kind of, if you were to do the compare and contrast essay question that you get in your A -levels or university, compare and contrast what happened when Keir Starmer was at the head of the ticket in the local council elections to when Andy Burnham was on the ticket in this Makerfield by -election.And you can see the difference.And you can see why.It's probably a forlorn hope of the prime minister to say, look, the last thing that country needs now is a leadership contest.It will be divisive.

It will ruin the party.I think we've gone past that.I think the fact that, you know, you think how many people can't put their name to a petition in Parliament calling for Keir Starmer to go becausepart of the payroll vote.They're the parliamentary undersecretary, they're the minister of state, they're the secretary of state, they're the parliamentary private secretary, whatever it happens to be, they can't do it without being forced to resign.So you've got a hundred backbench MPs who've now come forward and said it is time for Starmer to go.

And I don't know how you staunch that bleeding with a message that seems to be, and this is what he said on a call to party workers, was look we're turning the corner there are green shoots coming we think reform have peaked and that may be true but you know just stick with me and the fact of the matter is it was Makefield and Burnham that showed the difference.

John you don't even need to go back to the local elections even though they're only six weeks ago you could say that we had some controlled experiments even last night because of course we didn't just have one by -election in Makefield we also had two by -elections in Scotland one in Arbroath and one in Aberdeen in both cases obviously Andy Burnham was not on the ballot in those constituencies.In effect, the Keir Starmer Labour Party was on the ballot in those constituencies.And in both places, Labour got absolutely smashed in two constituencies that actually they were quite competitive in.in the general election.Now, you might say Aberdeen, particular circumstances around oil and gas, but look at our growth again.I mean, Labour absolutely, you know, we're only within about a thousand votes of taking that seat in a place that Labour did very well in 2024.

And when Keir Starmer said, and I think we can hear the clip now, when Keir Starmer says that reform has peaked, if he's looking at Makefield, there is a very clear reason why reform has peaked.And it's not called Keir Starmer.It's called Andy Burnham.Listen to this.

on reform, that they can't now win by elections, they've reached probably the peak of their support and it's going down.So very good, congratulations to Andy Burnham, but actually Tide is turning on reform as well, so this is a really importantin that respect.

I mean the interesting thing is he has a point because there were two council elections overnight one in Rochford one in Essex.where reform had been in control and they lost both of those to the Conservatives.So there is an irony going on here, which is that Keir Starmer might be right about reform coming off the top of their heights just at the point where he won't be around to see it, because essentially the movement, the wagon, the band is now properly behind Burnham.And part of it, I think, is just the way that he delivered this result, not just the numbers, but the sort of normalcy.What do I mean by that?The first thing he said when people tried to stop him after the result, are you going to go to Westminster?

Are you going to challenge Keir Starmer?He just went, no, actually, I'm going to go for a beer.I cannot imagine a world in which that was Starmer's line after a by -election win of any kind.

Well, you wouldn't believe it if he said it.

Yeah, he'd have to say, no, the work starts here and we're going to get back.Burnham just kind of like waved it away.He sounds quite normal.He then sort of knows what to say to the camera crews that are trying to get Tony Blair -like lines out of him.Has a new dawn broken, Andy?And he's like, I know what you're doing.

Nice try.Get away.All of this.

He didn't feel the hand of history on his shoulder.

I mean, that's the point.When we were doing the focus group on Tuesday, the word that kept on coming up was personable.right, which is not charismatic, because charismatic might be a bit sort of, you know, sort of tricksy, might be a bit snake oily.It just sounds quite normal.And I think what he has so far held together, and if you go back to the first clip we played, he's not very fluent.He's not a great orator.

He's definitely not Obama on the stump at Ashton Town FC there.But he does sort of convince people.I'd love to see that.

Wouldn't you love to see Obama at Ashton Town?

It's all possible now.It's all possible.well a new dawn has broken.hasn't it?I just think there is something that sort of isn't scary or weird here, which is part of what the sort of the by -election was responding to there.

Yeah.I mean, I have to say, I mean, I hate what you're saying, Emily, about that there have been a few by -elections where reform is going down.There's certainly evidence to say that where reform take office locally, they don't tend to do very well and people tend to vote with their feet.You suddenly realise what they're like in power.Well, yeah, absolutely.But I don't know.

I think the PI minister They're a little bit shameless there to be honest.I mean to turn around, to turn around and go.

To wrap himself in the make it feel victory.

Yeah, I mean look, everyone knows, right, everyone knows Andy Burnham ran a campaign which was basically a hostile takeover of the Labour Party in plain sight.A frame by frame, slow motion coup.He was saying, we all were there, none of his signs had Labour on it, it was vote Andy and he was saying I'm going to change the Labour Party, I am coming for Keir Starmer.Actually one of the mistakes that reform made were saying to people Andy Burnham is using this as a stepping stone to become Prime Minister and make it feel people have gone yeah bloody right fantastic we don't like Keir Starmer we want him to actually use us as a stepping stone to get rid of Keir Starmer.

We found one person weirdly who liked Keir Starmer so much they were voting reform.I mean you know we're at a new place when it comes to sort of tactical voting.

You know only six weeks ago I mean he can point to different by -elections and so on, but only six weeks ago the Labour Party got wiped out.across many and most of its historic heartlands, including Makefield, under the Keir Starmer Labour Party.I can understand completely why this must be really difficult for Keir Starmer and he, you know, I'm the first one to say he's done some good things in office.I'm sure we'll look back on those with more gratitude than we do now, but frankly I think the Prime Minister needs to grow up today.He needs to grow up and see and realise what the political reality is.The Labour Party, it is clear that most of the parliamentary Labour Party have been

terrified by the political hemorrhaging and bleeding to reform.It's clear that he does not enjoy the support of most of the Parliamentary Labour Party any longer.He can talk about his mandate all he likes but ultimately what he had in 2024 was an opportunity to govern he had a huge majority to do so and for whatever reason some of it is in his control some of it not in his control he has squandered that opportunity and if he wants to drag the Labour Party if he's serious about dragging the Labour Party through a contest against Burnham which against with the members he would lose, then all he will do is damage his own reputation for posterity.

Look, we know that Keir Starmer is a stubborn man.We know that Keir Starmer is sort of rather Joe Biden like in that sense of always saying people have always underestimated me and yet I've always risen above the challenge.And, you know, in him winning the presidency and Keir Starmer becoming prime minister was kind of proof of that kind of, you know, I can beat the odds.And he still seems to be going with that line saying, I'm, you know, underestimated.I've still got a lot to do.We are proceeding with this.

And, you know, key ciphers like Anna Turley and Steve Reid are coming out and saying this is the wrong time for a leadership contest.But you just have to think that stubbornness, which is what Keir Starmer is showing right now, is not enough.Surely there will be people, allies of Keir Starmer, saying you can have two legacies.as we sit here in June 2026.One of them is to have been the guy that turned the party round after Jeremy Corbyn, who wins in probably a massive landslide election in 2024, who pilots some of the, you know, some, as you say, Lewis, some good policies that have been introduced, the turning round and waiting lists on the health service and the like.And therefore, you know, you've done a great job, but it's now time to pass the, you know, the torch on to the people.

else.Or you can torch the whole bloody place and force a contest where everyone is ripping each other apart, and for which I suspect the Labour Party will find very little forgiveness from the electorate.

Look, they are both trying to sound like the grown -ups right now.Keir Starmer thinks by not going, he's holding on to stability.And Andy Burnham thinks by giving him this sort of, you know, window of the weekend of dignity, he's also going to be the person that doesn't sort of set alight, that doesn't trigger, doesn't fire the first shot.Patrick Maguire, the kind of, you know, the Labour horse whisperer.columnist at the Times, is talking about it just being a question of choreography.You know, if you're on planet Earth, you know what's coming next.

We just don't know quite how or quite when.

Andy, Andy, what's your message to the PM?Andy, he says he's going to fight you.Andy, are you going to become the new Prime Minister?Andy, what's your message?Andy, Keir Starmer says he's not giving way, sir.What's your message to Keir Starmer?

Neither is Beth Rigby.

Andy, Andy, Andy!That was Beth Rigby with a classic of its genre of a doorstep.And look, we're playing that because there are so many questions for Andy Burnham.right now.You could add another dozen of them.Andy, what's your policy on defence?

Andy, what's your policy on the economy?Andy, what do you feel about the bond markets?And on and on and on, because there's so much we do not know about Andy Burnham and where he stands and whether he's got a worked out manifesto.At the moment, he might look like the saviour of the Labour Party and this government, but But there is still huge unanswered questions about what his policies would be, what he would do, what the shape of the government would be, who would get jobs and all the rest of it.And I think that this is the territory we're now in.You said just before the break, Emily, about

about whether we're just talking about the choreography now.I think we are.I mean, history teaches us that, you know, when Thatcher said she was going to fight, she did until she wouldn't fight.We saw that with Boris Johnson until there were the resignations.You know, Keir Starmer is at that point now where no one has resigned today, so far.It's ten past two in the afternoon.

But it could happen.

Yeah, but there's a lot going on in that just because there are all sorts of different theories doing the rounds at the moment.I mean, I was told at the weekend by somebody who is fiercely loyal to Keir Starmer that if Andy Burnham thinks he's going to get a coronation, then this person said, I'm going to throw my hat into the ring and make a tit of myself, myself.In other words, they're not going to let it happen.There is a thought, I think, from Sam Coates, who was who was suggesting, Sam Coates of Sky News, who was suggesting that Keir Starmer was actually trying to encourage members of the Cabinet, maybe MPs loyal to him, to go with Wes Streeting, to get Wes's numbers up to 81, at which point Wes is the one that triggers the contest, which Keir Starmer obviously can fight from a position of not having started anything.He doesn't need the 81 himself.I've talked to members of the Cabinet who say that doesn't sound very much like Keir, but we'll wait and see.

I think Andy Burnham clearly wants this to be a kind of Well, you know, the Damascene conversion will happen.He'll see the light, he'll make way for me and I will sort of sweep in there and I won't have to do any of the heavy lifting.Keir Starmer has made clear he's not going and actually could win from a messy contest.In other words, the more people come in, the more people kind of go, oh, my God, this is horrible.We don't want to look like the Conservatives.The last thing we want is to look like an immature party in government.

Let's just stop this there and carry on doing what we're doing.So in that question of just choreography, there is a whole rainbow of potential kind of magic.And one last thing, I was at a sort of do on Wednesday night when somebody pretty senior from the palace came up to me and said, what's going to happen in Makefield?And I said, oh, you know, I think we just got back.How is the king?Well, exactly.

I said.

Were you just chatting with the king?

No, not the king.Oh really?But it was quite interesting because I said, oh, it feels like a 7 to 8 point lead.And then I said, but obviously I don't want to sound naive.I halved that.I said, maybe it's just a four point lead.

It felt like a Burnham thing.And I suddenly realised that what he was kind of doing was working out if the whole weekend, you know, has to be reshuffled.This question of choreography goes right to the top.It's who has to go and ask the king for permission if this is all going to happen in 48 hours.That's what he wanted to know.

Well, where are we?I mean, it seems to be that, I mean, undoubtedly, we absolutely know that Burnham has got the 80 votes.There's no question about that.He'll have way more in terms of support in the Parliamentary Labour Party.So if Andy Burnham, when he takes his seat on Monday, and he will have to wait to take his seat and be officially sworn in as an MP, but when he takes his seat on Monday, theoretically, he could trigger a contest there and then.It seems unlikely that that is going to happen because what Burnham clearly wants to do, what he would much prefer, is to avoid the kind of political bloodshed of that and the potential toxin that could flow from that, and for the Prime Minister personally to come to the conclusion that the game is up.

Now, it's also clear that Burnham believes, and I'm sure I know for a fact he's right in this, that there will be members of the Cabinet, as you say, John, who will go to the Prime Minister over the course of the weekend.And we're also told that the Prime Minister has been doing a ring round of his Cabinet ministers this morning trying to drum up support.hoping, that is Burnham, that enough of them will tell him the game is up and if necessary resign and therefore just create, and we've lived through this game a lot in recent history, a sort of cascade of political momentum that forces, in the end, Stalmer to go.Now, if that were to happen, then there is another question about whether there would be a coronation of Burnham effectively, or whether it would be better for the Labour Party and for Burnham himself for there to be some sort of contest.My understanding is, I think that there is a division of opinion about that, even with some within the Burnham in a circle, some who think much better to just use the momentum now, get him in there as quickly as possible, don't have the protracted leadership contest.This is the camel around, frankly, all over again, isn't it?

Yes, absolutely.Or would it be better to confer upon Burnham a bit more legitimacy by winning a Labour leadership contest, particularly given the manner that he's come in.I'm also told, and I've been told by multiple people this, that...What Keir Starmer is doing and saying is not synthetic.That he is genuinely furious.He is angry.

He believes it to be his mandate.He is furious with the way that Burnham is behaving.He doesn't believe that he's serious.He doesn't believe that his policies are serious.He doesn't believe that he's got a real programme.He thinks he's just vibes.

And he thinks, as we heard there, that reform have peaked and the Labour Party is acting like rabbits between the headlights.So at the moment what we have basically is a battle of nerve and a battle of wills between the two men and we just do not know sat here on Friday afternoon which of them will blink if either of them do.

And just to add one bit to that is that if there is a contest and Andy Burnham does go, what does Keir Starmer instruct to the payroll vote, to the cabinet, to ministers, to ministers of state, to parliamentary undersecretaries, to parliamentary private secretaries?Are they free to campaign for Andy Burnham or do they have to stay quiet as ministers and support the prime minister?Because if he demands their loyalty, then that will force mass resignations, I would imagine.And then you're back into the Boris Johnson ending, which was so bloody, where he's trying to cling on by his fingertips and he cannot.do it because resignation after resignation and you get people appointed to the chancellor for one day and then resign the next day.I mean that would be such a shambles for this government.

But Keir Starmer does not seem to want to accept, as you say Lewis, that the game is up and he thinks that he can fight it and win it and see off Andy Burnham's challenge.I just don't see that as realistic.

I mean, it's more than just not wanting to accept the game is up.He is looking at actual data coming out now, whether it's on migration, whether it's on health figures, whether it's on growth, whether it's on inflation.You know, even inflation didn't rise in the way it was expected to after the Iran war.Keir Starmer thinks that he can say, look, you know, just take the personalities away.Take the drama away.Look at what I'm actually delivering.

Give me a bit more time to keep this going.The two years is now starting to pay off.Why would you do this now?But I think to assume that these conversations in the Cabinet aren't already going on is wrong.They've been in abeyance for the last 12, 24 hours.They've been frozen.

I was told early last week that Burnham and Shabana Mahmood had already essentially come to a settlement between them.Burnham wants Shabana Mahmood to be his Chancellor.Shabana Mahmood has always sort of publicly insisted that she's very good in the Home Office and wants to stay there.I was told that there had been some kind of arrangement between the two of them now.Imagine that every other Cabinet member and others outside will probably be working out, am I going to show my loyalty because that's more chance of me staying in a job for longer.Am I going to contest like we're streeting or am I just going to see what kind of a deal, what kind of a job I might get from Burnham in the next 72 hours before I move?

These are all the conversations going on live now.

I think we can be fairly assured that when Andy Burnham rocks up to Parliament on Monday, he will be the most popular man in the House of Commons.There will be plenty of people wanting a cup of tea with the new MP for Makefield, you know, seeking his favour, seeking his patronage.

Saying how much they've always admired him.

Oh, terribly.And we should, and actually there's a serious point there which is to say that, let's not forget, and this is perhaps one of the reasons it's been briefed, that actually team Burnham's ideal timetable would be for him to actually assume office in September.And I think this we've talked about this on the show before, that perhaps the grand bargain could be to the prime minister, the prime minister have the summer, you know, have the time to go to the World Cup final.Hopefully England will be there.You'll enjoy that.All of that sort of thing.

Checkers in the sunshine.Checkers in the sunshine for the heat waves to come.Not least because two things.It will give Burnham a bit more time to formulate what the hell he's actually going to do, which is, I think it's fair to say, a little opaque at the moment, but also to get to know the parliamentary Labour Party.He actually Remember, he's been out of Parliament for 10 years.He only actually knows, i .

e.people who were there at the same time who knew him in the PLP, about a quarter of the Parliamentary Labour Party.He doesn't really know them.They don't really know him.But he has right now got that momentum.I mean, the thing is, is that, you know, you're right, Emily, look, we should give the Prime Minister some credit.

There are lots of things that are going well.There are lots of things that are going in the right direction.You know, I've been the first one to sometimes sort of criticise him for being a sort of bit of a technocrat.But there are technocratic, incremental things that are happening.happening and are going in the right direction.What I think your average Labour MP, your median Labour MP fears is that those achievements are just not being heard.

Such is the dislike of the Prime Minister himself.And I think one of the tough things for Keir Starmer to confront is that it is true.And again, I'll be the first to say, look, we don't know what Burnhamism is.We don't know how Manchesterism really translates to anything, particularly in an era of straightened circumstances where we've got the bond market situation that it's in.But I think we can say that right now, and I think this is the conclusion that even fans of Burnham within the PLP are not necessarily coming to, Burnham is the superior politician to Keir Starmer.He just isn't.

He has more political range.He has more political chops.He has more political skills.He has an ability to connect and emote.

Well, also, if you just think that the existential question is about reform, then he is quite clearly the man who knows how to be reformed.

And let's not forget, Keir Starmer was the one who set that up as the essay question.Remember back at Labour Party conference last year in Liverpool?He was the one who said this is going to be a Labour reform fight and it's the fight of our lives.And so far Keir Starmer has a very poor track record in beating reform.And Andy Burnham, yes it's just one constituency, but my word what a tough constituency.What an extraordinary feat.

Personal political vindication for him and his ballot politics.

So if you're a new MP, frankly, if you're a new Labour MP...Why wouldn't you roll the dice?Well, why wouldn't you think I have more chance of keeping my seat?I mean, frankly, Josh Simons, it turns out, was incredibly popular in his seat in Makefield and probably could have won and clung on there, even with a sort of reform tide.But I think if you're a newer MP now, you're thinking, I want the guy who's just got his messaging right.And this is again what came out of the focus group.

It's not that people want personality, but they want somebody who can deliver their message.

Well, I think this is where Tony Blair got it so wrong.wrong in his essay when he said it's not about those people who communicate, it's about the policies.What this isn't, and I think it's worth underlining this, because so many, if you go back over history, the battles that have taken place within the Labour Party have been the factions of left and right, modernising, traditionalists, old Labour, new Labour, whatever you want to call it.This isn't an ideological battle.Not at all.This is about someone who can do the job.

This is about someone who can communicate.This is about someone who can tell a story.And, you know, I mean, I know you were with Luke Trill from More in Common earlier in the week, Emily.He was on the LBC show with you, Lewis, and me last night.And the thing that he said was the waything I took out from every single focus group I did in make a field and I did a lot of them was just this absolutely antithepe antipathy and loathing of towards Keir Starmer.

That was across the board.

And I think people have spent ages kind of going, oh, left or right?Should Labour move to the left or the right?Is Andy Burnham to the left?Is he pulling the party to the left?I think, honestly, that's all irrelevant.I don't think it is about left and right.

I think it's about doing or not doing.Delivery or not delivery.Making a case, not making a case.It's become much more binary than something that is to do with the exact shifts in policy.I don't think Andy Burnham could have sold us the winter fuel cut, which is, you know, what?But he probably wouldn't have tried to introduce it.

Either he wouldn't have introduced it or else he would have done it in a way that had made more sense.And frankly, I think, you know, it sounds shallow, but I think our politics has got to a place where it's just about do the thing and explain why you've done the thing.And then you take people with you.

Andy Burnham came into politics, you know, the first time we got noticed was when Blair won the 97 election and Andy Burnham was one of the kind of bright young things around the Labour Party.And like David Miliband and James Parnell and others, he was kind of there and he has watched David Miliband be the Eminence Grise, who was in a position to strike and sort of bottled it and kind of dithered.And I think there has been a boldness under bravery to Andy Burnham to do what he has done.I mean, sure, opportunistic, but that's what politics is about.

I think it's remarkable.I think fortune favours the brave.What a tale.I mean, he gambled and he won.Yes.And he won big time.

Well, he hasn't won yet.

I mean, he doesn't really want to win.to be the MP for Makerfield.

But that's why I think it's unlikely that he's Keir Starmer is going to say to Andy Burnham, oh, look, can you just leave it a year or so?And maybe we'll come back to it.He's got the momentum now.

Just just let's play, you know, fantasy football for five seconds.Fancy cabinet.Right.Is there a world in which Andy Burnham does win the top job and gets Keir Starmer back in a role like Foreign Sec, like the David Cameron role.

He might do it.My instinct is that he would want to send a signal that there's been change and that he'd want to and keeping Starmer even in the foreign affairs job.I mean, maybe maybe if it was the price of Starmer going quietly, maybe he'd do that.Who knows?Maybe it's something.Starmer was also a really proud man.

Maybe it's actually something he wouldn't really want to count as.We just we just we just we just can't know, can we?But I think that, you know, ultimately, what Burnham has has got to try and do now is that he's got to show the Labour Party or start to demonstrate to the Labour Party that what happened in Maker Field isn't just a one -off.Because it is true to say that there were...I mean, what Burnham can no longer do, or at least it will be hard for him to do, is if he becomes Prime Minister, it is much harder to run the idea of being an insurgent.He will be the Labour Party brand.

You know, what he was doing in Makerfield was running against, full square, the Labour Party brand.Those two things will be fused.Now, it's possible, I think he might, if he were very skilful, be able to perfect a sort of politics where he does maintain somehow a sense of a little bit of distance with Westminster and the way things are done.If he can come up with enough ideas and affect a style which is substantially different to politicians that we've seen before, it's possible he might be able to maintain some of that.But he can't stand in 650 seats.And he can't basically be, he ran as we know.

But also he can't slag off the south anymore.

He can't slag off the councils of Rochford and Essex and all the rest of it.That's the other thing.

He has to say, I'm fromthe north, but I'm for everyone.

That's what I'm kind of getting at.You know, basically, if he's prime minister now, Brand Burnham as we've known it for the last 10 years, which has been very successful, has to quite fundamentally change because he can't be Mr. Outsider to Westminster anymore, or at least not very easily.And he certainly can't be, as you say, Emily, he can't be a sectional politician.He can't be the king of the North.He can't be a professional northerner.No, he can't be, or at least not easily.

He's got to be the prime minister for everyone.So it's going to require some real political dexterity on his part to try and replicate what we've seen in Makerfield.But that said, as you allude to again, Emily, that said, for most Labour MPs, The way they're looking at it is they're facing a binary choice.They can face certain political death, Pistama, that's how they see it, or they can give themselves a chance, just a chance by rolling the dice, of a lifeline with Burnham or possibly someone else.And that's why I think, and I think Patrick Maguire's completely right, I think there'll be a lot of analysis and there'll be a lot of choreography and there'll be a lot of commentary, but fundamentally, let's be real, Andy Burnham is certainly going to be Prime Minister.

Let's have a sweepstake.Do you think there's going to be a contest, a contest with more than three, or a coronation?

I'll go first.I think there'll be a coronation.I agree.that they will look over the edge and think what it would appear to the country to be like, that you've got people on hustings and all the rest of it.It's interesting that Harriet Harman, who was brought in after the local council elections, has sort of said they should get in a huddle, find out who's got the most parliamentary support and that person should be the prime minister and kind of cut out going to a wider electorate on who should be the next.

Like how the Tory party leader used to just emerge.

Exactly.Go back to that, are we lads?Good.That's not going to happen.I think that the party grandees, who may not have a dog in the fight, who may have been loyal to Keir Starmer, will think, whatever happens, can we do this in a civil and orderly fashion and deny us, and deny us the media, the chance of...a great battle and contest and bloodletting.

The Labour Party, as we've said, is very bad at fratricide, but it's very good at fixing things.It's very good at hammering out behind closed doors a deal.Are all three of us agreed?

Well, I have to say, I do know this isn't how a sweepstake works, just for the record.

Shall we do a World Cup one?Just before we change the subject, I do think that just to dwell a little bit on reform for a moment longer.Last night genuinely was their worst night since the general election.I don't just mean in Makefield, I think it was basically as bad as it could be everywhere because what happened last night, well not only did their percentage of the vote share not go up at all or virtually at all in Makerfield.Not only did it show that Restore, look, they're still a pretty fringe force, but they're real, they're there and they're affecting the kind of calculus and alchemy of reform politics.Well, the one party they're a danger to.

Yeah, it's reform.

And it was very funny in a way and sort of sweet irony.I think, you know, David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, all of the rest of them having a little laugh themselves this morning.As you both say, Nigel Farage sat there complaining about parties to his right going, what do you want?It's like, well, this is literally the trick you've been pulling for the last 30 years against the Conservative Party.So Restore have been confirmed as a sort of proper prospect that they'll have to deal with.But also, the Tories won in Aberdeen South.

And I think that's a personal Kemi feather in the cap because she went up there, she wouldn't leave it alone.

And they went hard on the net zero message and oil and gas.And yeah, maybe they were just maybe it's too generous.Maybe there are just particular circumstances in Aberdeen.But what it does send a message out, which is all the stuff that Farage has been saying that the Tory party's dead.Well, it ain't dead yet.It's still got some life in it.

And actually, funnily enough, and again, it might be that this is just a bit of an abnormal set of results.But we've all been talking, haven't we, about the death of the old two parties or multi -fragmentation of the system?Well, what did we have last night?Labour hold.Yeah, Labour hold.Conservative gain.

So there's still life in the old two parties, yeah?

Yeah, the other point I'd make is that reform have managed to lose to a party whose kleptocratic CEO is literally just about to go to jail in Scotland, right?That's not a great win for reform.

No, look, I think that the Farage position is really interesting.You know, we on this podcast have talked about this extraordinary, ridiculous five million pound gift that he was given.There are various little clouds in the sky over a form that are gathering and have gathered in the past few months which I think are really serious and I don't think you can just brush them off and say oh well it was just a guy who wanted to help me with my security.I think there are really big questions there and you know him lobbying over what should you know he was a crypto billionaire that gave the money and Farage has been lobbying.I think there is some really big questions there for reform.And as you say, when they've been in power in local councils and they've been by elections afterwards, they're not doing so well.

So there's a long way to go before an election.And that's where I think Stalmer might be right that, you know, reform may have there within reach and they are vulnerable.

Did you see the little pub garden sign ahead of this scorch of a weekend?More shady than Farage.

Well, again, we talked about it the other week.Again, I think the chances of Farage quitting before the next election, those odds have shortened again after last night because, you know, he always wants to win.And if he starts to seriously believe that it's slipping away from him, this is a party that relies on momentum, momentum, momentum, momentum, vibe, vibe, vibe.And if that slips, and undoubtedly their momentum has been seriously dented after the great local election results, that's a real problem.But I also think it showed, look, they ran a pretty poor campaign in Makerfield.We already talked about that.

idea of, you know, Stepping Stone and everything.That backfired.And frankly, Rob Kenyon, who, their candidate, who in some ways I had a little bit of sympathy for because he seemed out of his depth.I think what it revealed, the selection of Rob Kenyon to some extent, it revealed to me, it felt like a middle class person's idea of what a working class person is like, Rob Kenyon, i .e.that basically they're all just and they kept saying it with regards to social media activity.

Oh, this is what working class men are like.No, no.Most working class men are not like that.Yeah, they might enjoy a bit of banter and speak in a way that perhaps the SW1 classes don't speak all of the time.But most working class men, if they do say something offensive, also apologise for it, which Rob Kenyon And the Reform Party, I think could basically, because they were inspired by Trump in the US, never apologised under any circumstance, refused to do.And actually a lot of maker feel people actually watch that question time and actually gives me some hope that we're not as polarised as the US, because in the US, basically, it doesn't matter who the hell, what numpty they put up there.

They vote for them anyway.Actually, people watch that question time audience.They looked at Kenyon, who I'm sure is a decent man who's in the T .A.in his own way, whatever.But they looked at him and they looked at Burnham and they thought, working class people thought, I think we know who we want to represent.

Isn't that the great miscalculation of reform?to think that they can just transport and transpose American style politics and MAGA politics into Britain.And it will work just as well for them here as it did for Trump in the US.

Well, the point also of somebody like Robert Kenyon is they are meant to make the establishment candidate sound like a posh, out of touch git.And it just so happens that Burnham and Kenyon voice wise sound quite similar.So you're not actually thinking, oh, we're going to support the underdog, you know, against the posh git.

That's not, that doesn't hold anymore.There's also just such condescension about what people want in their local representative.This idea that somehow that working class people just want an exact version of themselves to be in parliament or wouldn't want to have a prime minister, always want someoneIt might be quite good for Makerville.

Who knew?I think the next World Cup final could be held at Ashton Town FC, given the publicity it's got.All the press were there this morning.We were there the other day.I mean, Ashton Town FC.

And wherever we go, World Cup nominations follow, of course.

We just want to play Qatar.

Yeah.Theoretically, we will be back on Monday.No, that sounds kind of existentially, we may not be here.This is our last show.This is our last show.Who will last longer, us or Keir Starmer?

What I mean to say is, that there may be events unfolding over this weekend.And if there are events unfolding of such a significant nature, we'll be back before Monday.I didn't say that very well, did I?I think that was fine.

You know, it was a long night.Either way, I'll be on my Sunday show from 10 on LBC with all the big interviews and exactly where we'll be by then.Who knows?

But we will guide you through one way or the other.We'll see you then.Bye bye.Bye bye.The News Agents podcast is brought to you by HSBC Private Bank, opening up a world of opportunity.

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