Can Starmer Cling On?

It's been clear for weeks, if not months, that Starmer was skating on thin ice, and could be challenged for the Labour leadership at virtually any time.But no one expected the first move to be made by Catherine West, a relatively unknown Labour backbencher.However, on Saturday, West issued an ultimatum to Starmer's potential leadership rivals, declaring that if no one officially challenged Starmer by Monday, she would launch her own challenge.While this plan seemed to fizzle out, by Monday evening the floodgates had seemingly opened, and more than 80 of Starmer's own MPs posted public statements urging Starmer to resign.Many thought that on Tuesday morning's cabinet meeting, Starmer would say that he knew the gig was up, and would outline a timeline for his departure.However, this didn't happen, and Starmer reportedly made clear that he intended to fight on.

So with Starma still clinging desperately to power, in this video we'll explain the events of the past few days, how Starma managed to stare down the rebels, and what's likely to happen next.The next issue of our magazine is out very soon, with this issue focusing on all of the wars that Trump has been involved in during his second term, with each dot on the cover representing a different military intervention or strike.Inside, we run through each of the conflicts, from Venezuela and Iran to Yemen and Ecuador, as well as discussing what he's really doing.Pre -order your copy today at toolong .news.So, let's start with a timeline of what's happened so far.

As we mentioned in the intro, this Labour leadership crisis was essentially triggered over the weekend, after it became clear that despite the frustrations of Labour MPs at the party's devastating losses in the local, Scottish and Welsh elections last week, the main potential leadership challengers, Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham, were not willing to launch their campaigns against Starmer.In fairness, there is a logic here.Historically, it's rarely been the politicians that make the first move against the PM whoultimately go on to take the job, with the recent exception of Rishi Sunak, whose resignation kickstarted the downfall of Boris Johnson, who he ultimately replaced as the Conservative Party leader.Anyway, frustrated by this, on Saturday, Catherine West, a Labour MP in North London, issued an ultimatum saying that if no candidate officially launched a leadership bid by Monday, she would seek the support of 20 % of the Parliamentary Labour Party, currently 81 MPs, needed to trigger a leadership election.She stated that her preferred course of action would be for the cabinet to rally around a single individual, saying that what I'd really like to see is not a leadership election, but for them to come together and appoint somebody amongst them who can lead us and give us a vision of how we're going to defeat Nigel Farage.

However, by Monday morning, no leadership challenges had been made.With Stalmer set to make a speech later in the morning, yet another attempt to reset his premiership, West said that she'd wait until after the speech to announce her next move.In the speech, Stalmer essentially promised to move further and faster on reform, saying we need a bigger response than we anticipated in 2024, and arguing that incremental change won't cut it.While he certainly sounded more fired up than usual, these arguments just didn't seem to cut it.He's been criticised throughout his term as Prime Minister for pursuing incrementalism, despite running for the leadership of the Labour Party on the promise of big, bold changes, like reforming student finance, pursuing a Green New Deal and improving workers' rights.He abandoned these as Prime Minister and is now arguing that incrementalism isn't working.

In response, Wes argued that the speech was too little, too late.And while she abandoned her plan to launch her own stalking horse leadership challenge, she said that she was, quote, collecting the names of Labour MPs to call on the Prime Minister to set a timetable for the election of a new leader in September.She later clarified that she meant that the leader should be in place by September and that the contest should begin soon.This triggered an ad hoc debateLabour MPs publicly calling on the Prime Minister to resign.By Tuesday morning, around 80 Labour MPs had stated that Starmer should go, and many expected Starmer to meet with the Cabinet and agree an exit plan.

Much of the debate was about whether Stalmer would announce that he would leave in the short term, a move that would benefit streeting, as Burnham wouldn't have enough time to win a parliamentary by -election and become an MP, a requirement to be the Labour leader, or whether he would leave in the longer term, which would benefit Burnham.In the end, Stalmer did neither, stating that as no leadership election had been triggered, he would get on with the job of governing.This has essentially shifted the burden onto the leadership candidates to actually do something.As the day wore on, more and more Labour MPs called on Starmer to step down.As of mid -afternoon on Tuesday, 87 Labour MPs had called on Starmer to go, including three ministers and six parliamentary private secretaries.These MPs represent all factions of the party.

Around 40 % are on Labour's right, 36 % on the soft left, and 20 % on the hard left.Despite this, no one has yet launched a leadership challenge.So let's take a look at what is likely to happen next.As we mentioned earlier, the issue that leadership challengers seem to have is that if they move first, their attempt to become PM could be thwarted if they're viewed as a traitor to the Labour cause and the person who plunged the party into civil war.However, since Dahmer has made it clear that he won't back down, we're getting to the point that someone has to move.There are rumours that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has found an ally willing to step down somewhere in Greater Manchester, paving the way for his return to Parliament.

As it looks unlikely that the NEC would block Burnham from standing as the Labour candidate in a by -election yet again.News of Burnham's candidacy might be enough to push Streeting, who it's understood probably does have the numbers needed to launch a challenge, into pulling the trigger on his own leadership bid.Or if things continue to spiral, Streeting could decide to launch a bid soon anyway, even despite any downsides of being the first to do so.While Reyna's name is often mentioned in these discussions, she's probably less likely than Streeting to launch a challenge.Reyna has openly backed Burnham's return to Parliament, and has met with him on several occasions in recent months.Kick -starting a leadership challenge before he's in Parliament, especially given the rumours that she could launch a joint bid with him, would certainly seem strange.

Anyway, while it's not exactly clear what the next moves are, it's clear that Stahmer's days are numbered.So putting to one side any questions about mechanisms or leadership challenges, who right now seems most likely to replace him?Well, bluntly, it still looks like it's Andy Burnham.Not only does Burnham have the support of senior figures within Labour, including Rayner, Deputy Leader Lucy Powell and Cabinet Member Ev Miliband, but Burnham is also the most popular potential challenger among both the party membership and the general public.Burnham also reportedly met with Labour MPs in London on Tuesday evening, adding speculation that he could make an important announcement soon.Regardless, there's clearly much more to examine here, and we'll be doing so in the next issue of our magazine, Too Long.

with a whole section dedicated to UK politics.

There we'll be diving even deeper into these elections and their impact, with our most detailed analysis.We'll also be discussing whether the UK has become ungovernable, unpacking Stalmer's attempt to cosy up with the EU, as well as the state of the special relationship.If you're interested in that, then you should subscribe using promo code SUMMER26.That way, you'll get 20 % off every copy as long as you stay subscribed.Plus, you'll get an additional £3 off your first copy, bringing the cost as low as £4 .99.While you're there, you might also want to grab a copy of this Spring's issue too, titled Disunited Kingdom.

In it, we discuss the various dividing lines in Britain today, from the growing political divides, to the fracturing of the Union, the North -South divide, the gap between young and old, and many more.It's not all bleak though, we also discuss what unites us and how Britain could be united.Both issues of Too Long are in the store right now, along with the whole archive.Subscribing really helps us out.It helps us grow the business, gets you more coverage, and ensures that the news we're making can stay free for everyone on YouTube.So if you're a TLDR fan, Too Long isn't just a way to get more news from us, including reporting from around the world.

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