Canada’s Insane Immigration U-Turn Explained

For most of the 21st century, Canada has had one of the world's most liberal immigration regimes, which Canadians broadly supported.Today, Canada has one of the largest foreign -born populations in the world.Canada's previous Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, was arguably one of the last in a dying breed of explicitly pro -migration politicians, setting ambitious targets for new permanent citizenships in recent years and implementing generous refugee programs for asylum seekers from war -torn countries like Syria and Ukraine.However, in the past year or so, Canada has experienced a dramatic reversal.Immigration has cratered and net migration has actually gone negative for basically the first time ever.So, in this video, we're going to take a look at this insane reversal and explain how it happened.

Anxieties about material self -sufficiency, a turn towards protectionism, great powers asserting their spheres of influence, this all looks suspiciously similar to the build -up to the First World War.In the latest issue of our magazine, we explore the remarkable parallels between now and then, and ask whether we can avoid a third one.That's just one of 80 pages in the magazine, because there's more in Too Long than you'd expect.

Purchase your copy by clicking the link in the description.So let's start by looking at the stats.For most of the 2000s and early 2010s, net migration ran at between 200 ,000 and 300 ,000 people a year.It started to rise after Justin Trudeau's election in 2015, coming in above 400 ,000 in 2018 and 2019, but really skyrocketed after the pandemic, rising to over 900 ,000 in 2022, over 1 .1 million in 2023, and then 800 ,000 in 2024.As you can see from the graph, this was partly driven by an increase in permanent residents, but mostly driven by an increase in non -permanent residents, who mostly comprised students and temporary workers.This was largely because, in response to post -pandemic labour shortages,

the Trudeau government loosened the Temporary Foreign Worker Programme, allowing employers in a number of industries to hire up to 20 % of their staff through the programme's low -wage stream.Trudeau's government also encouraged more student visas by essentially making it easier for students on temporary visas to become permanent residents.At the same time, Canadian educational institutions were becoming increasingly reliant on tuition fees from foreign students, which is why the number of student visas rose from about 200 ,000 in 2015 to a peak of nearly 700 ,000 in 2023.However, in the year or so since, things have gone in completely the other direction.In the first half of 2025, with Trudeau resigning that January, net migration came in at just 60 ,000.This was a pretty dramatic shift in and of itself, but in the three quarters since, net migration has, somewhat astonishingly, actually gone negative, meaning more people are leaving than arriving.

In the third quarter, for instance, it fell to negative 90 ,000, then negative 100 ,000 in the fourth quarter, and then negative 50 ,000 the first quarter of this year.It's hard to overstate how unprecedented this is.Canada has never seen such rapid emigration in its history and 2025 was apparently the first year in Canadian history when net migration came in below zero.So, What's going on here?Well, the first thing to make clear is that most of this shift is being driven by non -permanent residents, with the non -permanent population falling by more than 500 ,000 since 2025.This is in part a consequence of policies introduced by the new government.

led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, including, most notably, a series of caps on temporary residents.In fact, in his first ever post -election press conference, Carney pledged to bring the total number of temporary workers and international students down from over 7 % of Canada's total population, where it was when he took over, to less than 5 % by the end of 2027.Carney's government has also made it more difficult forworkers to become permanent residents, which was previously acting as a so -called poll factor for at least some temporary workers.These policies were a response to public sentiment, which turned sharply against immigration as net immigration skyrocketed during the last years of Trudeau's tenure.According to IIRCC polling, for instance, the percentage of people saying there were too many immigrants coming into Canada rose from about 20 % in 2020 to an all -time high of 54 % in November 2024.

Nonetheless, it's worth noting that, while most of the reversal has indeed been driven by non -permanent residents, net migration among permanent residents has also fallen.This is both because the number of new permanent residents is falling, in large part because the government has made it harder for temporary migrants to become permanent residents, but Also because the number of permanent residents and Canadians leaving the country has risen slightly in recent years.We're not exactly sure why this is, but there's some evidence for so -called brain drain.In other words, well -qualified and well -educated Canadians leaving in search of better economic opportunities elsewhere.A TD Economics analysis published earlier this year, for instance, found that better qualified Canadian immigrants were actually more likely to leave the country, suggesting that Canada's job market struggles to absorb or provide for the best qualified candidates.Surprisingly, this is all having a pretty severe effect on Canada's demography.

Because Canada's natural population growth is already negative, in other words more people die than are born every year, without immigration Canada's population actually shrank by 100 ,000 people in 2025, the first annual decline since World War II.It will also probably bring down Canada's fertility rate.In other words, the average number of births per woman, at least in the short term, which currently sits at about 1 .3.Nonetheless, it seems to have been good news for Mark Carney's political prospects.While Pierre Polyev's Conservatives still enjoy a very solid lead when it comes to who Canadians trust more on the issue of immigration, as net migration hasfallen, its salience as an issue has declined, with voters focusing more on other issues like the economy and Canada's tetchy relationship with its southern neighbour.

The number of Canadians saying there are too many immigrants coming into the country, for instance, has fallen from a high of 54 % in late 2024 to 47 % in late 2025.While the percentage saying the right amount are coming has risen from 34 % to 38%.And that gap will almost definitely narrow further in the future.given how sharply net migration has declined.It's also plausible that falling immigration rates have played a role in bringing down Canadian house prices, which has also helped boost Carney's numbers, at least with aspiring homeowners.This has all helped bolster Carney's impressive poll numbers.

The latest Abacus data poll suggests his government has a net approval rating of plus 23, and Carney personally of plus 19, making him perhaps the most popular centrist in the world.All in all, the fact that the famously pro -immigration Canadians are rewarding Carney for his relatively restrictive migration policies should serve as yet another reminder for centrists and liberals of quite how far public opinion has shifted on the issue in recent years.

Canadian politics is incredibly nuanced though, with plenty of outlets online reporting this story on Mark Carney visiting Saudi Arabia.And even now we can see that there were 53 sources reporting on it.But how can we be sure that what we're reading isn't hugely biased?Well, that's a problem we face when making these videos too.And luckily, that's where this week's sponsor, Ground News, comes in.For this story in particular, most of the sources reporting come from the left.

If we dig deeper into how the story is being framed, you can quickly see the contrast in how the story is being reported across the political spectrum.Some sources on the left emphasize the human rights concerns, while right -leaning sources shift their attention to Karni's bid to expand ties with Saudi Arabia.We're only able to get this level of deep analysis and transparency in reporting because of ground news.who we've been partnered with since 2023.Their incredible website and app collects thousands of articles, putting them all in one easy -to -access place, to help expose outlets' political bias, how reliable their reporting practices are, and who owns them, with all of their information backed by ratings from three independent news monitoring organizations.By now you know how much we appreciate Ground News, and how we're such massive fans of all their features, but especially their Blindspot feed.

If you're not familiar though, this is where you can discover everything that's being disproportionately reported by one side or the other, whether it's a mile from your house or on the other side of the world.And that just scratches the surface of what Ground News has to offer.They're completely subscriber funded, so there's no corporate influence deciding what you see.And we partnered with them to get you the same 40 % off unlimited access vantage plan that we use.Get that by clicking the link in the description.Go to ground .

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