Capehart and Continetti on Talarico’s chances against Paxton in Texas

Well, this week's midterm primary elections showed more signs of strength for President Trump within the GOP.That unfolded as Jill Biden spoke up for the first time about the former president's health while he was running for a second term.For analysis of all of this and more, We turn to Jonathan Capehart and Matthew Continetti.Capehart of MS Now and Continetti, a Wall Street Journal opinion columnist and scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.David Brooks is away this evening.It's always good to see you, gentlemen.

So the biggest political story of the week came out of Texas, where Attorney General Ken Paxton routed longtime Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary there.You've got Cornyn, who represents the Republican establishment.Paxton, who was backed by President Trump.He's faced security fraud charges dating back a decade.He was impeached for purportedly misusing his office.There have been accusations of infidelity.

Jonathan, what does a nearly 30 -point margin tell us about where the GOP is right now?

Well, what it says, you take Cornyn's loss by almost 28 points.You take Cassidy's loss in Louisiana, coming in third, another sitting Republican senator losing by 20 points.To me, what it says is that President Trump is king of MAGA.in that specific core base.But it also says he is the ruler of the Republican Party.And if you are a Republican running for office, you fear not getting the president's endorsement.

The question is, Does that translate to the general?Now, the president's approval numbers are in the 30s, depending on which survey you look at.In Texas, he is underwater by three points, and it went for him by 14 points in the 2024 election.Democrats have always wondered, ooh, Texas, this is the cycle we're going to do it.This might be it.But the test is going to be, does the popularity of the president within his own party translate to the general?

ballot?

You know, if he loses by 30 points, what message does that send to other incumbents?

Well, I think the message it sends is that the Republican Party under Donald Trump is a conservative populist party that is extremely suspicious of incumbency.Use the word establishment.That is a curse word in today's Republican Party.If you have ties to the Republican establishment in town, the non -MAGA establishment, then you're liable to bring in one of these primary challenges from a Trump -endorsed nominee.The Trump endorsement's the most valuable commodity in politics.Whether it translates to the general, I think we're looking for a contest between Paxton's biography and James Tallarico's ideology.

And in a red state like Texas, that blue wave is going to have to be mighty high to overcome the partisan tilt toward the Republican Party.

What about that?Does this put Texas in play, potentially, or is that more theory than reality?

Well, I mean, if you look at the Cook Political Report, the moment Cornyn lost, they switched it to no longer, I think, from toss -up to lean Democratic.But again, as I said before, Texas has been the whale that the Democrats have been hoping to turn for at least 20 years.This might be it.But to Matthew's point, this race is going to be ugly between the two of them.It's already starting to be ugly with some of the innuendos about James Tallarico.The question in my mind is, will Tallarico, how will he take the punch?

And then how will he respond to the punch?And that'ssomething that Democrats nationally will be looking at but I bet that's something Texans of all sorts who will go into the voting booth will be watching for it to see, like, is he Texas tough?

And no matter what, it's going to cost a lot of money, money that I think Republicans would have preferred to spend in other battleground states, but now they'll have to spend it in Texas as well.

We'll say more about that because you have Republicans defending congressional majorities in this political environment that includes concerns about inflation and gas prices and voter fatigue over President Trump.What do Republicans see as their strongest argument to voters heading into midterms?

addressed one of the main causes of his election in 2024, and that was the crisis at the southern border.But of course, voters are always asking, what have you done for us lately?And unless the president can show real gains in the Strait of Hormuz and on the price level and income growth, it is an uphill climb for Republicans in the fall.

Well, it's not helpful when the president is out there seemingly every day saying, I don't care about the economy.how all of this is hurting Americans' financial situation.Oh, it's peanuts.You cannot tell people they feel economic pain when they are feeling it every day.And if they're not feeling it, they're seeing it when they drive by a gas station.

Yeah.

Well, former first lady, Dr. Jill Biden, she's out with a new memoir.And of course, you know how this goes.In order to gin up publicity and interest in the book, there has to be a headline.The headline in this case is that she was frightened after her husband, Obviously, President Joe Biden's 2024 debate performance, and she thought that he might have been having a stroke.Here's what she said on CBS.

I wasn't horrified.I was frightened.Because I had never, ever seen Joe like that before or since.Never.Or since.

Yes.

Or since.You've never seen him like that?Never.No.What happened?I don't know what happened.

I mean, as I watched it, I thought, oh my god, he's having a stroke.

So the issue of Joe Biden's health has been litigated in public exhaustively.We're talking about it again because she's talking about it.But the fact that she was so concerned and thought that there might have been a serious problem, that is not what top figures in the Democratic Party were saying at the time.So Jonathan, does this undercut their credibility?That's not what she even said.

Right.The day after, she said, you answered every question, Joe.This is not helpful.This is not helpful, certainly, for Democrats who have a unique ability to circle the wagons and then just fire at each other while Republicans watch with glee.a sort of a second self -inflicted wound on the party, the first one being earlier last week with the draft of that autopsy that was released.To my mind, to your point, Joe Biden's health has been litigated up and down, even when he was in the White House, which stands in stark contrast to what is happening today with the current sitting president, who's went in for yet another physical at Walter Reed.

He's only been in the job for 18 months, three visits to Walter Reed.Why are we, as a profession, not talking as extensively and exhaustively and urgently about the health of the sitting president of the United States when we did that to Joe Biden for four years.

disclosure should the public reasonably expect from any president, especially this president, who is the oldest president to ever be sworn in?

I think they should expect a reasonably high level of disclosure.I mean, you have the two oldest presidents back to back, right?But I mean, you mentioned earlier, what is the Republican argument going to be in the fall?One of the biggest arguments is going to be Don't look at me, look at the alternative.Exactly has Joe Biden campaigned in 2022?The one thing that the Republicans are banking on is the Democratic Party failing to learn from its mistakes in 2024, including the way in which the Democratic Party establishment handled questions about Joe Biden's capacity to run for a second term.

And it is quite striking to hear the former first lady make these comments.It is not true.There were signs before that debate.There were signs on the trip to Europe.There were signs at the Juneteenth celebration.There were earlier signs.

And it wasn't until it was exposed into the entire world that we had those three weeks of panic until finally he relinquished the nomination to Kamala Harris.

Does all of this point to a bigger problem, not just having to do with any one president, but a system that gives presidential administrations strong incentives to disclose as little as possible to the public?

Yeah, I mean, it is a problem.And it's only made worse by this current administration where on any policy, I question, am I being told the truth?And I think I mentioned this last week when we were talking about the possibility of a deal between the United States and Iran.And I don't know, because I don't trust the administration, and I certainly don't trust the Iranians.So if that's my mindset on something as important as war, then you can imagine my mindset when it comes to the president's health, the president's economic plans, the president's plans to beautify Washington and all sorts of other things that he's doing and saying.

I think Jonathan is expressing exactly how Republicans felt during the four years of the Biden administration.

Matthew Continetti, Jonathan Capehart, good to see you both.Have a good weekend.Thanks, Jeff.

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