Crimea declares state of emergency as Kyiv launches 40-day Russia blitz | Russia-Ukraine latest news

I'm Roland Olyphant, and this is Ukraine The Latest.Today, Russian -occupied Crimea declares a state of emergency after days of intense Ukrainian attacks, as footage shows thousands of cars queuing to leave the peninsula.It comes as President Zelensky authorises a 40 -day operation against Russian targets to press for an end to the war.Meanwhile, Ukraine's row with Poland rumbles on, the EU says it will end refugee protections for Ukrainians of fighting age, and the United States denies Russian claims that it made a deal with Moscow to end the war.It's Friday, the 26th of June, four years and 122 days since the full -scale invasion began.Dom and Francis, as you can see, are away at the moment at the Chalk Valley History Festival, which is where grown men in Britain go to dress up as the Home Guard and drive around in Second World War jeeps.

So if you want to see Dom dressed as Captain Manoring, head down there.While they're away, you'll have to make do with me. I'm pleased to say I'm not alone.I'm joined by my estimal Telegraph colleague, Alex Nickel.And later, we'll be hearing from the EU ambassador to Ukraine, Kateryna Matanova.But first, the updates.Alex, where would you like to be?

begin with the military developments.

Well thank you Roland.So in lieu of Captain Manoring, no significant movements on the ground in terms of military operations.And also I wasn't able to work out essentially how a flag was placed on the Kinburn Spit, which Dom was talking about yesterday.However, significant updates in terms of the Ukrainian strike campaign.So we had one of the most extensive drone operations against Russian regions and the Okhai Peninsula since the war began.And Russia claims to have intercepted 660 unmanned aerial vehicles across 12 regions, including the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

Now, this scale shouldn't be a surprise.As you mentioned in the introduction, President Zelensky, after consulting the head of the SBU, has essentially started a 40 -day operation, as you quoted, to influence the aggressor state in order to press it.an end to the war.Now, it's unclear what's going to be included in this 40 day operation.However...

Is he talking about drones, though, when he says 40 day operations?

Yeah, I believe so.I think it's part of this sort of long range strike campaign, etc.Now, Dom talked about yesterday, key oil refineries being hit in Ufa and an oil depot in Krasnodar.So I think it's going to be a repeat of these sort of strikes, again, targeting key energy infrastructure, etc.And today the SBU claim to have struck two ships, a ferry and air defence systems in occupied Kerch.I believe we've got imagery of huge queues of cars trying to basically get out of the Crimea region whilst these attacks are going on.

And those are the last ferries still operating across the Kerch strait into Crimea connecting with Krasnodar.

Yeah, exactly that.We also have reports from Russia's Tula Oblast of a chemical plant as well as other energy infrastructure being struck by Ukrainian attacks.And these are being reported by independent telegram channels, including Exxarvona Plus Telegram which talks about explosions at the Azot chemical plant and the reports of residents complaining of a lingering smell of ammonia which can't be good for anyone.The local governor also talked about unspecified strikes on industry facilities, which we believe was that chemical plant.There are further reports of energy infrastructure being struck across the region, including power lines.Now, clearly, these strikes, as part of the 40 -day campaign, are having an immediate and desired effect for the Ukrainians, as Russian -stooled authorities in Crimea have announced a regional state of emergency.

Dear Crimeans, today at 13 .00 the regime of the desperate situation in the Republic of Crimea will be introduced.According to the agreement with Mikhail Vladimirovich Razvozhayev, this regime is adopted by Sevastopol and we act jointly and synchronously.This regime is being adopted with the aim of organizing financial, monetary, credit, contract and other relations and with the issues of recovery of damage, that is, this position should also be simplified.Therefore, I ask everyone to remain calm and trust only verified sources of information.Together we will break through.Thank you.

This happened, I think, just a couple of hours before we started recording.Yeah.

So on Telegram, the proxy leader in Sevastopol said, and I'll quote directly, the decision was made primarily to resolve issues of an economic nature.The legal regime of the state of emergency makes it possible to resolve issues of stable functioning of all spheres on which people's livelihoods depend as quickly as possible.

Now, stable functioning in all spheres on which people's livelihoods.You couldn't make it more legalistic kind of politician talk.What does he mean?

I think he means everything is going pretty wrong.And as we've seen in video footage and images coming out today on Telegram, enormous queues of people trying to get out of Crimea, which is supposedly meant to be a top Russian holiday destination.It is.Yeah.Well, perhaps no longer.And Other announcements today came that the actual train lines, they're being significantly reduced, clearly, with the strikes going on.

And again, the ongoing fuel crisis, you know, people probably are using their last bits of fuel to even get out of Crimea.

Yeah, so just before we came on, I looked at the official Russian telegram channel for the Crimean, the Kursk Bridge, where you can go and kind of check traffic conditions and so on.And they put out an update today saying that Let me see, it was about four o 'clock local time.From Taman going towards Crimea, there are no queues at all apparently, but going the other way from Kirch in Crimea over the bridge towards Taman in Russia,there is a 2 ,200, well there was when they put this up a couple of hours ago, 2 ,290 vehicle queue with a waiting time of more than five hours.And I've seen some suggestions amongst the Russian bloggers that maybe some people on those queue are actually driving to Krasnodar Krai to try and get some fuel there because there's none left.

Well, I know, but if I seem to recall, that exact spot got struck the other day.So I don't know how much fuel they're going to be drawing from there.So a great day to commute into Crimea, terrible to get out.To make the fuel crisis worse, on Wednesday, we had a strike on the Norsey plant, which is located in Kostovo, which I believe is sort of east of Moscow.Now, that's the fourth largest oil refinery and second largest producer of gasoline in all of Russia.And that was hit on Wednesday.

And that is now no longer functioning.So another critical blow for Russia's energy sector.Of course, it's not just Ukraine that's been striking overnight.We've had plenty of Russian strikes as well, particularly a wave of ballistic missiles on Kiev, with the mayor Vitaly Klitschko saying at least two were injured, with some significant fires at warehouses within the city.But there were air alerts all over the country, including western Ukraine's Rivine Oblast.I believe overall at least four people were killed in those attacks, with 38 and counting being injured.

But one significant moment was a Russian drone attack on southern Odessa Oblast, which actually caused an air alert from the Romanian government.And they said they had to scramble a helicopter at sort of four o 'clock local time to monitor the target and other aerial targets moving in the area.And although nothing crossed over, and there was no quote, unauthorized airspace intrusions, this does come only a month after the residential building in Galati in Romania was struck.So it can't be doing anything for the heightened tensions that exist between the two countries.neighbours and their views on essentially Russian incursions into their own airspace or territory.into actual buildings, it seems.

Moving away from the Russian strikes and back to Belarus, which I know we've discussed heavily on the pod this week, President Zelensky has warned that Belarus is close to completing new military infrastructure along its border with Ukraine.And that's citing intelligence that suggests Minsk is preparing for a possible expansion of Russian military operations.Now, that doesn't specifically say whether that's Belarus conducting operations out of their own country or, as at the beginning of the war, Russia using it as a launch pad as it did at the commencement of the full -scale invasion.Now, Zelensky had received this briefing from the acting foreign intelligence chief, which I quote from Zelensky directly, You know, that's pretty night and day.Now, there's lots of talks where Belarus or Moscow says there's nothing going on.They sort of countered Ukraine's arguments.

And Russia says, no, we're not going to abuse our relationship with Belarus.And also, Ukraine said Belarus had turned off technical equipment, which was assisting Russia in its own drone campaign.However, as we saw at the beginning of the full -scale invasion, These sort of signs, the build -up of military infrastructure, equipment, obviously eventually troops, these are key indicators that something could be about to happen.It might not be in the next few days or a few weeks, but that's important infrastructure for Russia should it choose to open a second front later down the line.And the level at which this has been taken in terms of seriousness by the Ukrainians, just today the AFU's commander -in -chief, Sirsky, said that Ukraine's going to have to form whole new brigades.And that's not adiantic.

another front being opened up in Belarus is so extensive that it could essentially increase the front line, according to his assessment, by 160 kilometers.And Ukraine's already stretched for troop numbers.They've got their own manpower issues.We talk a lot about Russia's manpower issues, but Ukraine's also suffering.And so 160 kilometers frontage is a serious threat.

It's a big thing, isn't it?And that's obviously where the invasion originated back in February 2022.And I know Dominic Francis has been looking at this all week, this ongoing row over Belarus.

Ukraine, Zelensky issued some threats to Belarus saying, you know, if you don't remove these installations, we're going to remove them for you.You know, Belarus came back saying, you know, we're not going to be threatened.There can be our own consequences.And then they did turn off the installations reportedly.So there is a bit of flip flopping.But I think what is undeniable, if you start seeing, you know, important military structure building up on the border, you've got to take the threat seriously.

And the Ukrainians assessment would be that it would require 70 ,000 troops to open up a serious front.

For who?For the Russians?

For the Russians or combined with the Belarusians, 70 ,000 troops for a serious invasion from there.However, there's also an element that even if you don't, you know, launch another attack from Belarus, you create this sense of uncertainty.And that requires Ukraine to draw resources, whether it's intelligence resources, whether it's, you know, physical military resources, or as the commander in chief said, you know, they're gonna have to increase the size of the army itself to be able to counter anything that comes from there.

It's a big issue, isn't it?I was going to mention this in the diplomatic updates, but I might as well do it now.Just before I quickly folded up my laptop and hurried up here to start recording, I noticed that Paul Pervova, which is a Russian telegram channel that basically covers the Kremlin Vladimir Putin,News, said that Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko will be meeting later today.I'm not sure if that's in Minsk or Moscow or elsewhere, but there it is.So, I don't know, Lukashenko responds to Zelensky's entreaties and threats, and now he's got to go and face Putin.

Putin.So let's see what comes out of that.What else have you got for us?

Yes, I've got two scandals coming out of Ukraine.The first one is to do with the commander of Ukraine's 425th Separate Assault Regiment, also known as the Skelia Regiment.And this is Lieutenant Colonel Yuri Hakavi.Now he's been suspended while military authorities investigate allegations of abuse and violations of soldiers' rights within the unit.Now, this comes after an investigation by the Ukrainian news outlet, Babel, which essentially revealed that there were allegations, you know, large -scale allegations of mistreatment of recruits, including torture, intimidation, and at least 26 non -combat deaths at training facilities over the past six months.Non -combat deaths?

Yes.

That sounds very serious.

Yeah, extremely serious.And I know we were discussing earlier about This is a sort of a potential hang on from the sort of Soviet mentality of the Ukrainian army, which is undergoing a rapid transformation since or since before the full scale invasion.And these sort of scandals, well, they don't make it very easy for Ukraine to see like an appealing NATO partner.At this sort of military level.

I mean 26 non -combat.I mean is the what's the implication there?Is that murders?Is it suicide?

Well, I think I think again the details whilst the investigation is ongoing are slightly scant But I think it would likely be a mixture of two there have been other reports You know since the war began of similar behavior, but 26 now is a large unitI think it's about 10 ,000 strong, which, you know, for the UK that's almost a division, so slightly confusing with the term regiment, but still 26 non -combat deaths.Now if that's focused on recruits, now as mentioned a second ago, you know, Ukraine is suffering from its own recruitment problems, you know, it doesn't make it very appealing if the unit that you're you know, could have a very good chance of going to its assault unit, it needs the most, you know, constant refreshment of troops, has been accused of non -combat deaths, you know, abuse of power.this sort of thing triggers people to want to, you know, certainly not want to join the army and certainly leave the country if they fear they're going to be recruited and join a system such as that.

It's not appealing, is it?And it is obviously something that we've seen a lot of on the Russian side.

Well, exactly.Which leads me on to a story that was flagged to me just before we came on.The Kremlin said today that it was looking to a military veteran's viral social media posts.which accuses Russian military commanders in Ukraine of torturing ordinary soldiers.Now this received a response from Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who rather cryptically said that the post contained strange formulations.Now I'm not sure what that means.

Who was this?So the actual soldier was a Russian soldier, I believe he was a sergeant, called Alexander Lunin, and he posted a video address directly on social media.addressing Vladimir Putin directly saying he was threatening a military mutiny if he was not allowed to meet with the Russian president on live television because he needs to tell him, and I quote, the whole truth about what is happening in our country right now.He said that he recorded the video because representatives of high -ranking officials from the defense ministry and security services had met with him and decided to use him to relay this urgent message to the president.Now, it's received 11 million views already.11 million?

Yeah.So it's gone, this is like super viral.Oh, you said this guy's a sergeant?He's a sergeant, yeah.And I think he, I believe he's, he'd already been kicked out of the army, has become sort of a bit of a mill blogger and poster.Now, what, you know, he's obviously clearly not going to be able to meet Vladimir Putin.

And I doubt he is going to get the same level of treatment as those involved in the investigation within the Ukrainian army.But why this is interesting is when we do see videos such as this, that it is an insight into things that we already suspect, and there's been plenty of coverage, a particularly good documentary that came out, I believe, at the end of last year talking to Russian troops that were being tortured by their own commanders.But the fact that this is being circulated internally within Russia, again, is this a signal that more and more people are waking up to what's going on within their own military, and whether they can do anything about it is highly unlikely, but it's always interesting to see clips like this.

And throughout the war we've seen these clips, particularly from the Russian side, of units kind of saying, look, I protest against Colonel so -and -so who has been putting people in a pit or stealing their wages or acting in other rough ways.but I mean to threaten to march on the Kremlin.It doesn't seem to me like a great way to get Vladimir Putin on your side.

No, I fear that may be the last we see of Alexander Lunin.That was sort of quite Pugosin energy.

Yeah, very fascinating stuff.

And I've got one final scandal, one final story from me, is that a Kiev court has sentenced former Security Service Ukraine, so SBU, counter -terrorism chief of staff, Dmitry Kozyura, to life imprisonment after they found him guilty of high treason, for spying essentially damage assessments on objects in Kiev, but also the locations of SBU units, data from military units, other official documents and analytical materials.I think there was also something to do with energy infrastructure, gas pipelines, etc.So he was arrested following a long -running SBU counterintelligence operation which was codenamed RAT.very fittingly, and during which investigators allegedly monitored his communications and documented multiple instances of espionage, essentially him being incredibly shifty.Now I think the chief of staff of the SBU, clearly that is a high -ranking official within Ukrainian intelligence apparatus, and that will have a lot of people worried.That level of penetration is extremely scary for any organisation, but particularly for something as important as the SBU.

And it shows that Russia, you know, whilst we talk about it being on the back foot, which it is in many ways on the battlefield, it still has highly capable army intelligence services that are able to do things like that.And so it'd be interesting to see if any more falls out of Russia.Rat, if there are any other key figures wrapped up in that.But yeah, one to watch.

Yeah, definitely.And it was always apparent, I mean, ever since even before the full -scale invasion, the massive, massive Russian intelligence penetration of Ukraine.So it's it's interesting to see these, you know, the details of that slowly emerging over the years with these with these investigations just who was working for who and And so on Alex.Thank you so much for for for the military overview Of the current times.I'm just going to quickly switch to diplomatic news So this is a rare bit of what looks like actual Russian Ukrainian diplomacy And I think slightly slightly more than we normally see so it's it's about prisoner exchanges which is as we know kind of the the easiest bit of of trust -building there has ever been between the two sides throughout the conflict.And this is from Yana Lantratova, who is the Russian Human Rights Commissioner.

She says that she and her Ukrainian counterpart, Dmitry Lubinets, have agreed to jointly visit prisoners of war, which is interesting if they're going to be doing it together.And it comes after, oh, and that they've exchanged lists of soldiers being held by both countries.

And is that with some actual exchanges as well?

There's been an exchange today.OK, yeah.So 160.from each side exchanged today and more promised in the coming days, according to her.Is this a sign of a greater thaw?Obviously too early to tell, obviously balanced against everything on the battlefield that you've just discussed.

It's not a step towards peace, but I would just note that prisoner exchanges and prisoner welfare have often always been the easiest bit of trust building between the parties.Whenever there's a peace talks or any sort, often jam up but they come to an agreement on prisoner exchanges.

And I suppose also, both sides looking internally, you know, if you're the Russian government, you know, we've got soldiers complaining on Instagram about how everyone's being tortured.If you are seen, we're bringing, you know, we're bringing people back.that's a positive win within your own country.Obviously, the Ukrainians do a lot.But I suppose one of the small things that if the Kremlin wants to seek any sort of approval, it's trying, at least trying to bring its soldiers back.Trying to be seen to be bringing the boys home.

Yeah, exactly.Exactly.So I've noticed that interesting thing that was today, 160 prisoners of either side exchanged, presumably across that border.that little border point.It used to be down in Sumy.I'm not sure it's the same border point where they go across these days, but that's where they used to do it.

Moving on, the Ukrainian Recovery Conference in Gdansk, which Dom and Francis were talking about at length yesterday, has closed today.I'm not going to go into details because they did great job kind of unpacking what that was all about yesterday with a receipt of service from Chatham House.But just to bring you up to date with the with the final outcome.So Yulia Spiridenko the Ukrainian prime minister who was representing Zelensky there.She said in a social media statement that the summit resulted in a total of 160 agreements worth more than 10 billion dollars.billion euros being signed.

She flagged a few of the key ones.3 .2 billion euros in the first tranche under the EU's new Ukraine support loan, which is Brussels' new financial instrument for supporting Ukraine.four billion dollars in a new agreement with the World Bank and the launch of a European flagship fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine.The British Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, Britain doesn't want to be left out of this, so the Foreign Office put out a press release saying that Britain has also contributed a new package worth around two or nearly two hundred and ninety million pounds for Ukrainian recovery and energy.security.I went through the Through that it was a bit a bit dense to be honest language But it seems that a large part of this is a two hundred and ten million pound deal for a UK based company called you're in co to provide nuclear fuel to Ukraine's national power company and ergo atom which caught my eye partly because partly because I didn't know we exported nuclear fuel.

It's nice to know we still have high -tech industries in this country.

No, well, and I guess, again, everyone's thinking heatwave.Why do we care so much about energy right now?But they're always looking six months in advance, and they're thinking about the next winter.

Thinking about the next winter.And they've still got that fleet of nuclear power stations in Ukraine, Soviet -built, and I presume probably would previously have been a customer of Rosatom, the old Russian nuclear monopoly.So that's the kind of economic outcome of the conference.For more details on that, do tune in to yesterday's episode with Dominic Francis and Arisia, with much more details about what that was all about.The other thing, the Ukraine -Poland spat is rumbling on, and it rumbled on yesterday.There's yet a new development today.

Of course, the summit was in Gdansk in Poland, which created some kind of tension.So, Sviridenko met with Donald Tusk yesterday evening in Gdansk, both their delegations sitting down at a long table, in what looked to me like an apparent attempt to kind of make things look like business as usual and to smooth over the row over Second World War history.Now, she didn't refer directly to the quarrel in her statement, but she had kind of warm words for Poland as host of the conference, spent a lot of time talking about what the countries have in common.She said the conference was especially productive and demonstrates the strong interests of Polish businesses in Ukraine's recovery and long -term development.Talked about expanding collaboration between Ukraine's Naftogaz and Poland's Orlon, so energy projects.Said Ukraine and Poland share many common priorities, challenges, and interests.

We're working together on practical solutions.So this kind of boilerplate warm words.Let's move on.Donald Tusk himself did allude to the quarrel.I would say this was kind of he struck a firm but conciliatory tone at least that's what I take away from it.He said we can build the future only on truth on mutual respect on an understanding of history.

Ukraine rightly wants to be a part of a united Europe.The condition for true full unification has always been an understanding of one's own history and a genuine capacity and willingness for reconciliation." So not backing down, but reconciliation.What a word.I would say, striking a slightly conciliatory tone without backing down, but Jaroslav Kaczynski, the head of the right -wing opposition Law and Justice Party, pouring fuel on the flames.saying he's returning a medal that was awarded him by Ukraine as an expression of my attitude, not so much towards Ukrainians, but towards the Ukrainian elite.

He also urged Warsaw to block Kiev's EU ascension talks.And I also saw Kirill Budanov, Zelensky's ex -spy chief and chief of staff, attacking the Ukrainian, the Poles, sorry, and saying they're being incredibly immature about all this.

Yeah, I think he returned an award as well.

Yeah, exactly.So, despite efforts of some to smooth this over, it looks like this is, this row is going to keep on simmering for the foreseeable future.Not a great thing for Ukraine, you know, to see that rift with itshas been one of its closest allies throughout the war.OK, and then I've got something that relates back to what you were saying about the treatment of soldiers and recruitment crisis.So this is yesterday.

First it's Denmark and now it's the rest of the European Union.Yesterday Denmark said it was no longer going to grant refugee protection to Ukrainian men aged 23 to 60, i .e.those who are eligible for the draft.literally to stop Ukrainian men from avoiding conscription.That was yesterday.

Today, the EU as a whole has proposed following suit, following the Danish example, which means that men of that age who are eligible for the draft will no longer be granted refugee protection in the bloc.They say it comes from a request from Kiev.Magnus Brunner, the European Commissioner for Internal Affairs, said the proposal provides that temporary protection should not be granted to newly arriving persons who are not allowed to leave Ukraine because of their military obligations.So what that basically means is that the European Union granted Ukrainians temporary protection after the full -scale invasion.They've been extending that, I think, every six months, every year or so.The current extension is set to expire in March.

So they're talking about extending it for another year until March 2028 It won't affect any men who are already living here But it means that any new coming men between 23 to 60 who are banned from leaving the country Will be excluded from the scheme.

So that's interesting that they've that's been a request from Kiev itself And I wonder if that's why that suddenly happened because they had actually I believe they changed some of their laws allowing I believe if you were 18 or above, you weren't allowed to leave the country at all.And then in the past year, they changed that.So I think if you were under 21, you could leave.And now they've made that request.I wonder if that's something to do with any plans to increase the size of their own army or some change in mobilization.It's just, you know, it feels slightly out of the blue.

A long running issue in Ukraine is this shortage of manpower and the tensions and the resentment that's been created by press ganging.and the restrictions on men leaving.So a significant development.And lastly, I just want to draw your attention to this row that's just erupted between Russia and the United States, which I think is really interesting, because it sheds light on the entire diplomatic kerfuffle around ending this war.So you might have noticed over the past few months or so that whenever Russian officials start talking about or asked about the possibility of a diplomatic end to the war, they talk about something called the Anchorage Formula.Now what they mean by the Anchorage Formula is an agreement on ending the war that they say was struck between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump when they met in Alaska last year.

The problem with the Anchorage Formula is that no one else has seen it, at least I haven't seen it, so I've spent a long time over the past several months kind of wondering if I can find this written down anywhere.Personally, if anyone has seen the list of what this is, I haven't seen it.All I've managed to kind of glean kind of obliquely from the statements of Russian officials is that they seem to think that it includes a provision that Ukraine is basically going to give up what's left of the Donbass region.Anyway, they've been going on and on and on about this.But now Marco Rubio, the U .S.

Secretary of State, has come out and said it just didn't exist.And I think it's the first time an American official has contradicted them on this.So this is what he said.

There was no agreement in Alaska.There was a proposal in Alaska, but there was no agreement in Alaska.If there had been an agreement, we would have had an end of the war.So, as I said, the president is prepared, as the United States remains prepared, to play whatever constructive role we canto bring about an enduring end to this war.

So there you are, no Anchorage formula.But Sergei Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, he's hit back this morning with remarkably detailed claims about what he says actually happened in Alaska during those talks.You remember Vladimir Putin?flies to Alaska, he sits down with Donald Trump, no one quite knows what's being said behind closed doors.Well, Sergei Lavrov says this is what happened.He says that, and he was there, that Vladimir Putin went through a series of US proposals that Trump's envoy Steve Whitkoff had brought to Moscow days earlier, and he says Putin listed them point by point, checking with Whitkoff, who was present, that he Putin had noted them correctly.

And Lavrov says that each time Witkoff had answered each time in the affirmative.And Lavrov writes in answers that were published on the Foreign Ministry website today, therefore when my colleague M. Rubio is basically kind of moving away or abandoning this idea of being a neutral negotiator or just kind of abandoning Ukraine, pushing Ukraine to some kind of settlement.And in a way, moving towards a more openly pro -Ukraine stance.

Well, definitely.After, I think, they discussed yesterday how there'd been an assessment from the US government saying that Ukraine was now winning the war.Exactly.I feel like that's sort of in conjunction with that.

Exactly.It fits with that.It fits with what we're talking about.on yesterday's episode of the podcast, that Donald Trump had been kind of, he basically praised the Zelensky and the Ukrainian war effort, saying they're doing quite well in this meeting in the White House with Mark Rutherford of NATO just the other day.He's come a long way from that infamous meeting all that time ago, saying that Zelensky has no cards.And then there was Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, who gave a joint press conference with Giorgio Maloney yesterday.

And he said at the last week's G7 meeting, He felt that for the first time the U .S.has joined a joint statement with us that clearly states that it's no longer a neutral mediator but stands alongside us in supporting Ukraine's territorial sovereignty and integrity.And he talked about a significant realignment between the U .S., Canada, Japan and Europe.

So, you know, after all this time talking about a transatlantic rift and the Americans abandoning the European position, I don't know.I don't know what's going on, but we can see a trend here.

I think I can see a trend.

No, I agree.Absolutely.And one final bit of news I want to flag from Russia.It has been reported by Russian state media that Sergei Ivanov, her former Russian defense minister and ally of Vladimir Putin, has died.I'm flagging this partly because He hasn't played a significant role in recent years in Russia, but he was once a really, really big player.He was Putin's defense minister from 2001 to I think around 2007.

He was later his chief of staff and then special envoy environmental affairs.He kind of disappeared from public life over the past decade and a half or so, but he's always kind of remained a member of the Russian Security Council and was thought of at one point as Vladimir Putin's Successor they served together in the same KGB unit back in the 70s Cause of death not announced but kind of a he was 73.Yeah, same age as pussykind of a, it's kind of, it's a moment that Kremlin watchers, shall I put it that way, Kremlin watchers will mark this moment.

But he wasn't a known critic in any way?He was absolutely not a known critic, no.

He was thought to be extremely hawkish, somewhat more intelligent than Vladimir Putin, it was whispered to me.He was in the, kind of, in the actual foreign service of the KGB, which required people to be a certain cut above the rank and file.But an interesting moment to mark for the Kremlinologists.Next, this week, the podcast has reported on Hungary's attempts to delay Ukraine's long -sought European Union membership bid.It presented a fresh stumbling block not long after the EU opened the first formal negotiating chapter for Ukraine and for Moldova.Even with Budapest's intervention, the speed of Kyiv's path to membership has rankled some Balkans nations who have been campaigning for ascension to the bloc for many years.

It's in this context that Adelie spoke to the EU's ambassador to Kyiv, Kateryna Matanova, and began by asking if Ukraine's ascension to the bloc should be fast -tracked.

Well, first I would like to say that Ukraine has been eyeing the EU accession since 2014.We only on the EU side started looking at the issue after the filing of the official application, which came four days after the full scale invasion, 28th of February, 2022.That's when they formally applied.And it surprised all of us at that point.But they have been really striving to join the EU ever since the Maidan Revolution of Dignity in 2014.So for them, The fast is a very relative, very relative word.

And what is important to realize that since 2014, they have been carrying out very transformative fundamental reforms.They have accelerated the reform agenda and adoption of the reforms after 2022.But they've been at this for 12 years.So a lot of their anti -corruption efforts are now paying off.The institutions have been set up.That's why you hear about corruption cases being revealed, because there are institutions that address it.

They have addressed a number of economic sectors, for example, in the over four years of war.You didn't have a hiccup in the banking sector, even for a day.That means that has been thoroughly reformed and transformed into a very, very solid structures.And I could go on and on.Therefore, I don't think that.it would not be based on merit, because we often mention, oh, it's merit -based.

Well, Ukraine has merit, and I think it should continue to be merit -based, but I think there should not be any more unnecessary delays.And if you ask me whether they can technically be ready by the end of the next year, I would say yes.

Really?Do you think that's feasible what Zelensky has been saying for the last year that Ukraine could join in 2027 or 2028?

I think that joining will still take some more time because you need to have consensus on this among the 27.You would need to go in many countries to national parliaments for ratification.So that still takes time.But I think that in terms of the technical part,and adoption of the necessary laws and setting up the necessary processes, I think if there is a political will to open the remaining clusters, that's the first step which needs to happen now, because there are six negotiating clusters altogether.And then opening and closing the individual 32 or 34 by now chapters of the of the accession talks.

I think that's doable, but it would require concentration, it would require mobilization domestically, and it would require willingness to move that fast also on the side of the EU.

Yes, what I'm hearing is you're saying that Ukraine is very keen almost ready, but it's not necessarily matched on the side of the EU.And I think one of the signs of that was Petr Madia, the new PM in Hungary, who said he got the phrase as soon as possible removed from the EU's joint statement this week that Ukraine could join as soon as possible.Do you foresee Hungary continuing to be an obstacle for Ukraine to join the EU?And We've talked a lot on this podcast that Petr Madia was, yes, maybe a bit more European, pro -European and a bit less anti -Ukrainian than his predecessor, but he was not completely warm to Ukraine.Is that something that you foresee will be a problem down the line?

What I foresee is that there are going to be any number of countries that are going to feel queasy about such a big step.And I would like to remind the listeners that this is the case with every round of expansion of the European Union.When Spain and Portugal were applying to get in their widerindustry was very scary for Italian and French winemakers.Now, the four wine producers coexist and there is no issue.When my country, I come from Slovakia, when we were joining the EU in 2004, before that, you may remember, the big scarecrow was the Polish plumber.

and a Czech truck driver.And we got transition periods of seven years when we couldn't access the labor market, not in Britain, but in most of the other countries.So there is always uneasiness about expansion of the EU.And in this case, the uneasiness comes from the fact that Ukraine is a large country.the largest by landmass in Europe, in fact.It has a very potent economy, whether it's agriculture, innovative industrial potential.

Just look at the drone industry that have been able to develop in three years from nothing, literally nothing.So it is a scary prospect.So I think that Perhaps the Prime Minister was reflecting views that are not going to be completely isolated.

You've mentioned earlier the corruption cases and how the fact that we hear about these cases is actually a good sign because it means that it's being tackled by Ukraine.Did you have a moment last summer of doubt when President Zelensky considered shutting down the anti -corruption instances like NABU or SAPO, for example?Was it a sign that was worrying for you that maybe there was some backtracking or not as much maybe political impetus?

It was certainly a moment where wemobilized just like the Ukrainian young people mobilized as well.Also, the international community very clearly signaled that this would not be a very welcome step.Look, I have worked on reforms and on institutional and legal reforms and anti -corruption for many decades in different jobs.Progress is never linear.There are vested interests that fight.

You always have back and forth.You need to look.And I have the benefit of having worked on Ukraine for over a decade now.I was in the European Commission before, and now I am in Kiev as the ambassador.And I have been watching and observing the trend, which is, if you look with with the perspective of the 10 years has definitely been positive.So this was, of course, a moment of unease and tension, but when it was signaled both by the street and by the international community, a corrective measure was taken almost immediately.

And so as a result, we now have two ministers and a former head of the presidential office under investigation.One of them is behind bars.The other ones are out on a bail.So that just shows that the process is very much ongoing.

On the reforms, you said Ukraine was almost there.What else does Ukraine need to do in terms of reform to get to EU standards?What are the big areas that need to be worked at?

Ukraine needs to continue adopting the really massive amount of what we callacquis communautaire, that means the body of laws and norms and directives and regulations that bind the EU member states together.And in a number of technical areas, this is very dreary and demanding task, while maybe politically not as controversial, but it's also demanding institutionally.I think the biggest areas is to finalize the judicial reform.and make sure that the anti -corruption institutions continue to function.And they have been building a track record which is very solid by now.

So I think that's one area.The other area which will be important for the EU is once the war is over, how to move from a martial law to...I mean, it's amazing that under martial law they are actually reforming and keep the democratic institutions, but whatever was done under martial law will have to be undone in a reasonable way.And then I think that the two biggest areas economically that are going to be sensitive for the EU is certainly agriculture, transport, and the export across the various sectors that are competitive in Ukraine.I mean, case in point, the steel quota that we are now discussing, which is one of the areas where Ukraine has a lot of capacity.But ultimately, for Ukraine to join is going to be a tremendous benefit to Ukraine, but a tremendous benefit to the European Union.

And I think that's important to keep in mind.

Do you want to go, because I know you feel very strongly about this, do you want to go into a bit more detail about what Ukraine can bring to the European Union?

I mean, the obvious thing is, you know, the most battle tested and best best army in Europe.That is the obvious one.But very closely linked to that is the the drive, the innovation, the capacity, the potential of the defense industry, especially now as the world that we used to know for 80 years doesn't seem to exist anymore.I think that Europe being stronger and being more innovative and more prosperous with Ukraine in its midst is very achievable because we constantly talk about how non -competitive Europe is.There was the Draghi report, et cetera, a couple of years ago.And I think Ukraine is the one that can fill the innovation gap.

And they can talk about the rare minerals and the mineral wealth and the agricultural potential.All of that is going to ultimately make Europe stronger and more competitive if Ukraine is in it.

Going back to the reforms for a moment, you said how Ukraine would have to move forward from the martial law and what it's implemented.That will be a big transition democratically.Do you worry that some of the reforms cannot be implemented during wartime and that it will need peace in order for Ukraine to just get to that final mile?

Well, I'll give you one example.under attacks by Russia and in bunkers.You can draft laws, but it's very difficult to untangle things like the bowels of the state, right?And so there are things like this that will need to be done in the last mile in peacetime.But what is actually quite extraordinary is that the reforms are at all happening.And I frankly, I have worked on reforms my whole life.

I don't know any other country that has been carrying out really transformative reforms while fighting for their national survival.

I'm going to ask maybe like a more difficult question.But do you think the accession talks, which are obviously very important to Ukraine, and they're very important to the EU?Do you think sometimes it's a way to deflect from what else Europe could be doing in order to support Ukraine.And I'm thinking of how much time it has taken to rally funds, the issue of the Russian assets that we have reported on a lot on this podcast, but also how Europe has not been able to step up to the negotiation table in the last in the last year, or also militarily.Do you think the accession talks are kind of a way to deflect from these other issues?

Actually, I must say that we have done the walking and chewing gum at the same time quite well.When the U .S.started signaling it would no longer provide budgetary funds to Ukraine, there were worries who's going to fill the hole.And for the last two years, we have been financinggreatest majority by the EU with the help of Britain, with the help of Canada, Japan, etc., but predominantly the EU and its member states.

With the 90 billion loan that is now under implementation, it's actually the first time in history that the EU budget will be financing military expenditures to the tune of 60 billion.And that's in addition to the Pearl Initiative through which EU and other countries reimburse purchases of US military equipment.So I have not seen yet that the accession talks would have been a distraction.In fact, I think that what was really focused on was to deliver the political support and through sanctions, notably, and the financing of the budget and financing of the military.So, so far, it has not, I think, been a distraction.You mentioned the negotiations.

Well, they were quite confidently led by the United States.We now hear from them a recognition that that track needs to be rethought and done differently.And certainly there are parts of interests and aspects of future settlement where Europe has to be at the table.But mostly what needs to happen now is to get to a ceasefire.And I think there are now big debates in Europe how to be part of that, including at the European Council.

Some EU membersstill have strong relationship or strong, still have relationships with Russia.I'm thinking about the Illuminae plant in in Ireland, which was a big subject of conversation, but also the import of Russian gas.Do you think these countries and do you think these relationships could be an impediment to the negotiations, but also to Ukraine joining the EU?And should we be should Europe be looking at its own members a little bit more?

There are historical historical ties and contacts across a number of member states.But frankly, the speed with which Europe has untangled itself from Russia, including Russian gas, with the two exceptions, including taking businesses out, has actually been surprisingly successful.I think that the temptation among many economic players will be there, but I think that, including at the Wednesday European Council, the support to Ukraine is resounding and very much heard from all of the member states.So I don't think that this necessarily will be again, if you look at it as a trend line, there may be episodes that will be a problem.But I think the trend line is very clear.

I have to ask because we are the Telegraph is the Brexit newspaper after all.We know that joining the European Union has is incredibly popular amongst the Ukrainian public, the polling shows it that they're, they're in massively in favour.Is there any part of the Ukrainian population that or any circles that are not so keen on joining the European Union?

There's been some Euroscepticism among the young population according to recent polls.And I think it's a function, you know, you have this mismatch.Europe thinks it's working on enlargements since 2022.In Ukraine, the perception is of a much longer timeline since 2014.So you have inbuilt tension between what is the starting date for the expectation buildup.So I think that there's been some Euroscepticism noted there.

There are also business circles that fear competition.by opening up the market, so I spent quite a bit of time also talking to business people to sort of sort of maybe explain and what is the ultimate benefit.Because when you look at previous expansions of the EU, when you look at the cohort of 2004, 10 countries, I mean, every single one is much, much, much better off.Let's not forget that at the end of communism, Ukraine was a stronger economy than Poland.And now there is a big gap.So I think that it can all be explained.

And also, let's not forget, Ukraine is fighting a kinetic war with Russia, but also a hybrid and disinformation war.And Russian narratives, Russian subversion of, and Putin's desire to prevent Ukrainea member of the EU.is something he already showed in 2013 when he told former president Yanukovych that he's not going to sign the association agreement.Let's not forget that was the trigger to the Maidan revolution of dignity.So there is also a lot of this information about the EU that we picked up that is being spread by, you know, very capable a Kremlin narrative machine.

Do you think you'll be the ambassador to see Ukraine become European?

Well, Ukraine is European.Ukraine is historically, culturally European.Whether I will be the ambassador that will see Ukraine joining the EU, Probably not, as my term is for another year and three months.But I very much hope that I'll be the ambassador that will see Ukraine make very decisive steps on the path of joining the European Union.And who knows, maybe they will join at the same time as Britain will rejoin.

That's a question that we'll have to see.Katerina, it's been a pleasure talking with you.Thank you very much for joining me today.Thank you very much for inviting me.

That was Katerina Matanova, the EU ambassador to Kiev, speaking to Adelaide.That's all for today's episode.I've talked too much for us to have time for a final thought, of which I'm very sad.But Dom and Francis will be back in the studio, I hope, on Monday.Alex, thank you so much for helping me guide The good ship Ukraine the latest.

No, thanks having me.We look forward to captain managering, etc.Returning next week.Goodbye