Dave Smith: Trump Must Accept Humiliation, Defeat In Iran

Joining us now to talk about the war and some of the political aspects of it is Dave Smith.He, of course, is comedian, commentator, notable libertarian, and host of Part of the Problem Pod.Great to see you, Dave.Good to see you, man.

Oh, good to see both of you guys.Thanks for having me.

Yeah, of course.So just give us your sense of where things are right now, where things are going, and what you see as the least bad outcome at this point.

Oof, man.It's such a weird position to be in.I know you guys have been in the anti -war world for a while, and I have too.And it's just, for all of us, it's like, this is the war that we've been warning against.I've been against this war for 20 years, you know?And because they've been trying to push it the whole time, as Benjamin Netanyahu has been saying, they're weeks away from making a nuke.

And it's this weird, dark feeling to be vindicated in the worst possible way.And you're like, just so many years of being like, this will be a disaster.We do not have escalation dominance.They can close the Strait of Hormuz.And then it goes down and you're like, yeah, exactly, exactly what we all thought.And, and party, like, part of me at the very beginning of the other thing where they're like, they're really convinced that they can, take out this regime through the air and I'm kind of like, I don't know.

I mean, maybe it seems unlikely, but we, we do have a very impressive air for like, maybe they could hit the guy.And then it goes, Oh no, it's exactly what we thought.That's right.Um, so I mean, look, I, I know you guys have been covering this.I've been watching your show every day for a very long time.And, um, there's, so I guess if I would just put this together at this point, this is the terrible situation that we're in now is that the best case scenario is that Donald Trump just walks away from this.

But it is just so politically impossible, and particularly with the personality of Donald Trump.You know, when Donald Trump gave that, what was it, a couple weeks ago, he gave a speech right after the markets closed at like 8 or 9 p .m., and he signaled, if you remember, that we don't really care about the Strait of Hormuz.He said, eh, that's not really our problem.Everyone else gets their oil from the Strait of Hormuz.

We make all our own oil.And then he said, it'll just naturally open up.And he called on other countries to open up.But there was something very positive about that signal, because at least he was signaling, we're going to call it a win regardless.But then, of course, you saw what Marco Rubio said just on Monday about how, well, we can't accept the reality of Iran You know, determining who can and who can't cross and what currency they can use.And I was saying on my show, I know you guys were saying back then that even when Donald Trump was trying to make it out, like, Well, the problem here is that if you were to leave right now and leave Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz, then this is the greatest military defeat in the history of the United States of America.

There's zero comparison, just zero comparison.And no, we didn't lose, you know, we didn't lose as many people or spend as much money as we did in Vietnam.And we've had losses in Vietnam and Afghanistan and Iraq.However you determine a loss, You know, you lose hundreds of thousands of people, kill millions of people, spend trillions of dollars, and the communists still rule Vietnam.Well, then I guess that's a loss.But we've never transformed our opponent into a global power to take Iran, this relegated, sanction -crippled, third -world country, and then transform them into a global power.

And, you know, I talked about this a bit when I was on Tucker Carlson.And then me and Sagar, we were talking about this a bit after where we were at my place getting really high, and me and Sagar were talking about, we were so baked.And then, I'm just kidding.

I, um, what did, what did Bill Clinton said?He said, I inhaled, but I didn't know.

But so like, and we, me, I'm just so interested in talking about this because it's like, look, if you're trying to be a political actor here, then you should say what Joe Kent is saying.And he,and of course, he's a different guy than me.He's a Ken doll military guy.And so he'll say, Donald Trump is the only one strong enough to walk away from this now and still survive.But I'm no good at being a political actor.

I tried to like influence the Trump campaign and we all see how well that worked out.So I'm only good at telling the truth on podcasts.And the truth is that that's not right.That's not right.Donald Trump can't save his presidency by leaving.It's still the best thing that could happen, but Donald Trump would have to accept humiliation and defeat.

Just think about where we're at.To avoid catastrophe, Donald Trump has to sacrifice his ego.Like, if that's not out of a Greek tragedy, I don't know what is.But of course, as I think Professor Pape has done a very good job of breaking down, and I never have as much confidence in any predictions I make as he seems to have in his, but I do think that he is right that essentially, it's almost like the obvious answer here would be to just walk away, let other countries figure out the straight.All of the economic incentives are for them to work out a deal, right?Like Iran wants to have some control, but they don't want the thing shut down.

But the problem is that that hands him a win, that hands him veto power over the region going forward, and it's just an utter humiliation.But at least we could end this without a catastrophe if we were to do that.But that still means Donald Trump's sinking down to probably in the 20s in the polls.I mean, if this whole thing is over and he has nothing to show for it, like he didn't get the enriched uranium, they still support Hezbollah, the regime still stands, and we have this issue with the strait that we didn't have before the war, there just is no spinning that into a win.However, the alternative is the escalation trap, which is just really bad.And he knows he can't follow through on bridge and tunnel day because he knows the Iranians could take out a desalination plant or two.

We don't have options.And then just the last thing I'll say.you guys have been covering very well.We really don't know how much damage we've already in crude.You know, like we don't know.I mean, these things, the markets are not very good at predicting these things.

You know, the markets in, I think you guys made this point on the show, but when they were pumping trillions of dollars into the economy in 2020, while the country was locked down, just huge infusions of cash, The market was at all -time highs.The bailout worked.The market was crashing.They pumped trillions of dollars into it, and it went into all -time highs.The market wasn't foreseeing crippling inflation, but that did come the next year.And so the fact that, I don't know, this is beyond my pay grade, but 20 % of the world's oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz.

I'm reading all the reports the same you guys are.Since the US blockade, less total ships have been getting through than at any other point in the war.It's even worse than just the Iranian blockade.I don't know what we find out in four, five, six months from now.How much longer can we go?These are big questions, and we're really risking calamity already.

Right.I talked earlier in the show, there's a new $350 jet fuel surcharge for any flight from Japan.And I was like, well, that's the least of our problems, because in a few months, there'll just be no flight.It was like the flight's just not going to happen, which is, I mean, a disaster.Dave, to your point, I want to turn a little bit to domestic politics, which you talked about.There's some new polling here showing Trump actually lower than Jimmy Carter on the issue of inflation in 1980.

Let's take a listen.We'll get your reaction.

It's the number one financial issue.It's the number one issue folks saying it's facing their families right now.And Donald John Trump is in the worst position he has ever been on inflation.And more than that, these are the worst numbers I've ever seen for any president.I mean, just look at this.Look at this.

According to Ipsos, look at this net approval rating on inflation.We got the latest poll out.He's 49 points underwater.That means that 49 percent more of the public disapproved than the proof of the job.doing.I went back, you remember Joe Biden.

Inflation absolutely crushed his presidency.But at his worst, according to Ipsos, he was just 43 points underwater.So Trump is lower now on inflation than Joe Biden ever was, according to Ipsos.And I will note that the inflation rate right now is only about a third as it was back in June of 2022.Yet Trump's numbers are significantly worse than Biden's ever were.You think about inflation sinking presidencies, you think of Jimmy Carter.

But just look here.OK.If we look right now at we're talking about net approvals on inflation, this number should actually be 46 percent, minus 46.And if you look at this, though, even if I raise it a little bit and I correct my error right here, live on air, we're talking about minus 46 points versus minus 49 points.Donald Trump is in worst position on inflation.Jimmy Carter was when, of course, Carter then got blown out by Ronald Reagan back in 1980.

Of course, the living country is on the wrong track or right track.Look at this.Among independents, 75%, 75 % say the wrong track, just 9 % say the right track.Look among Republicans.The plurality of Republicans say that the country is on the wrong track when it comes to the cost of living versus just 39 percent, 45 versus 39.Donald Trump has lost every single part of this electorate.

And when you take his name out of the equation, you see even the plurality of Republicans say that the country is on the wrong track when it comes to beef prices.

We're heading into summer.

Just take a look here.Chance that April, 2026 versus 2025, the beef prices are 15 % higher.According to the calcium prediction market, 75 % people are feeling the pain across different issues, including beef prices, as well as at the gas tank.

Quite something, isn't it, Dave, for the president who was literally elected to try and to get inflation under control, to end up back here.And you know, I was talking about this early in the show.I'm curious for your reaction.I will not forgive Biden.You and I ruthlessly criticized the man over inflation and over his management of the Russia and Ukraine.At the end of the day, he did not invade Ukraine.

This time, Trump actually is the sole reason why this entire thing is happening.The actual choice element of it is, I think, why it's starting to reflect in the polls over inflation and over betrayal by so many of the voters.I'm curious for what you think.

Yeah, well, that's I mean, I think that's almost the only explanation that could explain how like, I was surprised by that poll, because I thought his numbers would be bad, but worse than Biden when the immediate price inflation was so much worse.And same with Jimmy Carter.And I think you hit on it.Right.I mean, the idea is that the whole your whole point, the whole thing you ran on was to not get to not focus on stupid foreign wars and instead to focus on bringing prices down.And of course, as you guys know, I mean, you know, inflation is cumulative, so they brag about how it's down.

But I think it was Michael Malice who first had the joke, but it's just so perfect.But it's like if you gained 100 pounds in a year and then the next year you gain 50 pounds and you go, I've lost weight.And you're like, no, you have not.And for everybody who actually, you know, for regular people, which is the biggest story in America right now, is that regular people I mean, he is just, he's memorized every anyway.It's, it's incredible.

I used to co -host a show with him on MSNBC.I first started there, and his brain is just different.If you give him a date, you can say like January 21st, 1991, and he will tell you what the headlines in the newspaper were.He can tell you what he had for breakfast.He can remember his day.

It's just on another level.I still turn into MSNBC on election day is just because Steve Kornacki knows every county in the country.But like, anyway, this guy should be launched to the to the front lines.He should literally have for them running that MAGA 100 percent approval poll nonsense at the beginning of this thing.really seemed to of course because Donald Trump is Donald Trump he's brought it up like 15 different times like it really seems like that actually pushed him to and it's on the level you know like as you guys know the way you could manipulate polls like so when Barack Obama first became president he was very very popular had approval ratings in like the 70 % he was had no track record he was charismatic great public speaker we all hated Bush we were hoping he would be better By the end of his presidency, his approval rating was way down from there.Not like Trump's, but it was way down.

And imagine someone had just run... but amongst hope and change Democrats, he's still at 100%.Well, yeah, if you put his slogan in front of it, but like what, so they, they, they really in an effort and you guys have been doing a good job covering this, but there's this like faux opposition by the democratic and media establishment that's like, Oh, we're against this thing, but we're also going to kind of like give you all you need this war.If the polls tell us anything, I don't really trust polls.You know, remember during the campaign when it came out that the internal White HouseDonald Trump's approval ratings are about where George W Bush's was were after two disastrous wars and he destroyed the economy Yeah, and if this thing keeps going bad Donald Trump's gonna be in the 20 % like if this is gonna and you're gonna see look as long as he's trying to overthrow the Iranian regime, or as long as there's a chance that he might topple the regime and the war is still going, the Israel lobby will be behind him no matter what.If he stopped short of regime collapse, they will turn on him.

But what you're going to see in the next few months is the not Israel lobby just kind of pro -Trump Pundits the Stephen Crowder's and Benny Johnson's those guys They're gonna all start turning on Trump too because as soon as they realize that there's just no popularity anymore in Defending this it's all gonna go downhill.So but these numbers I mean if when you really dig into where he is with independence and and as you guys said on this this inflation Which is the biggest issue?I mean, look, people give them credit for securing the border, and I do too.I mean, I think that was a real crisis that is over now.But the number one issue, this is why Democrats are winning on unaffordability.It's all anyway.

There's one statistic that defines America more than anything else right now, which is that the average first -time home buyer is 40 years old.It doesn't matter if you're left or right or progressive or conservative, you can't run a functioning society that way.If 25 -year -olds, 28 -year -olds, 29 -year -olds have to get a check from their mom every month, or have to live at home, or have to, then they're not grownups.They can't go start families.They can't go like, there's, as we all know, right?Cause we used to be kids and now we're grownups.

There's a thing about like, it doesn't matter.I'm not saying you have to be in a mansion.You gotta be supporting yourself in order to like feel good about yourself, in order to feel like an adult who's contributing, to be in the ownership class,you actually care about society.You know how the difference between when you rent a place and when you own a place, and all of a sudden when you own a place, you're like, eh, all right, let's not freeze any pipes.Let's make sure this doesn't, like, have a functioning society.

Also, Dave, the idea of some punk ass kid on my lawn, It enrages me.Now that you own a lawn, you're like, get the fuck off my lawn.Like you have no idea.

Someone drives a little too fast.Oh dude, someone drives a little too fast by my house.In a school zone?

I'm hot.You guys would fit in well in my HOA apparently.Let me, to your point, Dave, let me put some, there's this focus group done by the New York Times of Trump voters who are disappointed in Trump.And it's very interesting, some of the things that they say.First of all, the median voter brain is something I will never be able to fully comprehend.But in any case, put E4 up on the screen.

We grabbed a couple of the, of the comments.from this group.And first of all, you've got, in one or two words, finish the sentence, I'm feeling blank about the country these days.Disappointed and sad, disappointed and hopeful, okay.Concerned, worried, anxious, frustrated, annoyed, discouraged, surprised, and discouraged.concerned, apathetic, betrayed.

And that betrayal really ran through a lot of the responses.Let's put the next one up on the screen.What grade would you give Donald Trump's second term?One dude gave him a C. Everybody else gave him D was the most dominant answer.And then three people gave him an F. Let's go to the next one here.I think we have one more slide.

What word comes to mind when you think about your vote for Trump in 2024?Regret.Is there anything you wish you could tell your 2024 self as you were about to vote in 2024?Think carefully.When people show you who they are, believe them.Don't trust any of them.

Argonis, who's the one who said don't trust any, said it exactly.I would repeat it.Don't trust none of them.If someone's making big claims, they're probably overcompensating for something else.I like that.insight.

But, you know, you do raise a good point about, look, the truism about Trump's base is he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and it wouldn't matter.And it is true that his voter, like his core base, not his voters necessarily, because some of them were independent and had voted for Biden previously, et cetera, but his core base does still support the war, is still with him, will still buy if he comes out with some kind of a victory narrative, even as we're looking at it and like, this is insane, they will still believe it.So what makes you think that there will be even among those individuals that there could be some erosion as a result of this catastrophic decision?

Well, so like when you, as you said at the beginning there, it's like getting inside the voter, the, the, the head of like the median voter is a very, like, it's hard for, I think we always got to remember, right?There's a difference between the median voter and the people who are say watching breaking points.The people who watch your show or watch my show or what, they're just, they're more invested.They're more involved in this.

Top 5 % of news consumers.

Right.Well, look, I mean, if, if Joe Biden, so, so when Joe Biden was, was 30 -something percent, maybe 40 % of the voters.

Yeah, I think you probably would have gotten, if I had to guess, 45, yeah.

Right.So even in the worst case scenario, even when the president is a vegetable, there's still like a huge percentage of people who just, yeah, they vote Democrat or they vote Republican.So the question, like the action is always in the coalition.So the difference between Donald Trump having like 50 % approval ratings, as he did a year and a half ago, or having 33 % approval, well, that's the whole difference.That's the difference between a blowout loss or winning the popular vote in every single swing state.So he's already destroyed that.

Now, I'll just say this.I don't know.I guess, you know, and I've been getting in some arguments, uh, with, with some people about this.Yeah.You know, I'm known to even some people close to you, but listen, I mean, and, and look, I, I have really nothing against.Kyle or anything like that.

But I do think that, look, it is true.There's always been this criticism of Donald Trump supporters that they're like a cult -like following.There's no question that there is an element of that.And then the comment about shooting people on Fifth Avenue, like, yeah, okay.Essentially, we're running that experiment right now and finding out who will stay by him no matter what.But I do have to say, just just my opinion and maybe I'm not the best guy to sell this message because I did support Donald Trump and vote for him and I did come on your show before all the others and apologize for that even though that that is very that is very trendy these days I was I was seven or eight months ahead of most people on that but whatever I can't really brag I voted for Donald Trump and now I'm saying that was a mistake but I'm just saying Barack Obama ran on peace.

He ran on ending the wars.He ran on closing Guantanamo Bay.He ran on restoring habeas corpus.He ran on a million things that he just never did.And not only didn't do them, but expanded the worst of the Bush policies and himself was even worse than George W. Bush.If you look up the civil war that he kicked off in Syria, the toppling of Gaddafi in Libya, backing the Saudis in Yemen, Barack Obama killed like a couple million people, just slaughtered innocent people.

you next time.surged in Afghanistan, and then pulled out of Iraq and then re -invaded the country of Iraq.How many prominent, how many of the most popular pro -Obama people turned on him in the middle of his presidency, said he ought to be impeached and removed, he's maybe even the Antichrist, this guy, not that many.And with Donald Trump, it's been a tsunami.So look, I'm not, I don't think the move, like at the same, I mourned the death of the anti -war left for 15 years.I was the anti -war left before I got converted to being a libertarian.

It broke my heart that they all disappeared under Obama.And when they all came charging back about Gaza, I was like, let's go.They're back.Like, I don't think we need to sit here and get into these arguments of, but you supported Biden and therefore the genocide is all your responsibility or something like that.Like, look, man.Joe Biden and Kamala Harris deserve to lose a thousand times.

They deserve to lose a thousand deaths and be launched to the moon and never allowed back on Earth for funding the genocide in Gaza for their whole last year of their administration.Just totally unforgivable.And Donald Trump deserves the same for all of this.So I think at this point, we're in a really dangerous situation.This war could really spin out of control very easily.And We've never really been in a situation before where there's a war launched and the propaganda apparatus is non -existent.

They cannot sell the American people for this.This is why Mark Levin is openly talking about how we got to bring tech censorship back.These guys know they got to shut all of us down.So instead of us sitting here quibbling with each other over who in a forced binary decided this candidate versus that candidate and for what reasons, I think we should just all be opposing this as loud as possible.was your favorite president.You don't have one who you give a pass to.

And it's like, yeah, they're all war criminals.They're all genocidal maniacs.Why should we set the standards so low?They all get an F. The grade from George W. Bush to Obama to Biden to Trump, every single one of them gets an F. It's just terrible.And I think you do, you know, you do see maybe, yes, there are a percentage of people who will support Trump no matter what, but I think less so than any other president of my lifetime.I hope so.

I hope you're right, that we at least see that whenever it comes to war.Dave, as always, we appreciate your time, my friend.Thank you very much.I'll see you at our next smoke session.I think that's what they call it.I got some good stuff.

I got some good stuff for us.Don't you worry about that.

I think that's what the kids are saying.

No, I really, can I just say, I really, I know I say this every time I'm on, but I really do admire both of you guys so much.This show is phenomenal.I've been watching you guys since Rising, and I will say, I think this war in Iran, I think this has been the best period of your show.

Well, thank you.even with the overwhelming propaganda on the genocide in Gaza, on pushing for war in Iran and all of that, that people are seeing the truth.Now, do we have a democracy worth its salt where that matters too much?That's another question, but that's something to work towards in the future.Dave, good to see you.Thank you so much.

And if you'd like to get the full show free and in your inbox every morning, you can sign up at BreakingPoints .

com.That's right.Get the full show.Help support the future of independent media at BreakingPoints .