Election Special: Is it change or die for Labour? | The News Agents

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It does strike me that this wasn't an election in the traditional sense of the word.It was more of an arson attack.

Keir Starmer, for whatever reason, is despised by the public of this country, by much of the population.He is despised.And that is is a really terrible place for a sitting Prime Minister to be.Farage has been around for a long time.He's had lots of different political outfits, lots of different political incarnations.

We are now a country that believes it's better the devil you don't know.He is well and truly fucked.

Because the results are tough.They are very tough.And there is no sugarcoating this.We have lost brilliant Labour representatives across the country.These are people who put so much into their communities.so much into our party and our movement.

And that hurts.And it should hurt.And I take responsibility.When voters send a message like this, we must reflect and we must respond.

What does that mean, to reflect and respond?Starmer is pretty brutal about the state of Labour after last night.But has his own position, weirdly, changed?

just become firmer.And taking responsibility is one thing but there are an awful lot of Labour councillors who want some change as a result of this.And is Keir Starmer navigating a path out or does the problem just get worse and become existential for Labour?Welcome to the News Agents.

I thought his name was Nelson Mandela.

Yes, yes, yes.

Time will tell on that one.Everyone can identify as they prefer.

Let's not get bogged down with Nelson.Let's talk about where we are with the elections.We're recording this.It's 20 past two.I was up all night doing the election result programme for LBC, so if I'm incoherent, more incoherent than usual, we can blame it on that.

Sorry, I don't understand that.What did you say?

Yeah, quite.Reform are basically, if we're looking at the English councils now, and we're about halfway through at the time of recording, There's just no doubt Reform are the big winners from this election and they will continue to win.At the time of recording there were nearly 600 gains, pretty much from a standing start.Labour are losing support in every direction, particularly in the north of England to Reform.They're now down 400.they're losing about 50 % of all of the seats, all of the council seats that they are defending.

That is their attrition rate.There are midterm blues, but this is of a different order of magnitude for a governing party, not least because what we are seeing is not just traditionally what one might see with an unpopular government, in the sense that they are losing votes and seats and councils and support to the main opposition party.That is not happening.The Conservatives are losing council seats for the fifth consecutive year on the bounce, down 264 seats.There are some seats in some areas where they've got a little bit of sign of revival, but generally speaking, they too are losing ground to reform.Labour, the thing that makes this different for Labour, is that they are losing ground

and support in some cases to an existential extent i .e.e.being wiped out in councils in the north of England in particular in the Midlands that they have controlled for 50 years or longer ever since these councils were created and it is unusual because they are bleeding support in two directions to two basically new forces on the political scene, reform and the Greens.And we haven't even talked yet about what is going on in Scotland and Wales.Scotland looks like they may, Labour might not do too badly by comparison to some of the predictions.But in Wales, it is nothing short of catastrophic with two things at the time of recording that we're hearing.

One is, is that the Welsh First Minister, Eluned Morgan, is very likely to lose her seat.The first time that a head of government in this country anywhere has lost their seat at a parliamentary election.And Labour may be reduced in a country that they have won every election in for a century may be reduced to having about 10 % of the seats in the Senate, about 10 of 96.

Yeah.I mean, look, you didn't even hear Starmer or even Kemi Badenoch trying to pretend this was anything other than a night of pain.But it does strike me that this wasn't an election in the traditional sense of the word.It was more of an arson attack.You know, what has happened in recent years very effectively for both Farage and I guess increasingly now for Zak Polanski is you go around the country and you ask people if they're happy and you say if you're not happy then burn it down.Burn down the system, burn down the establishment, burn down the people who've been in politics.

for this long up to this point, and people have gone, yes, we will.In other words, we are now a country that believes it's better the devil you don't know than the one you do.The worst thing you can do.right now is part of the establishment, right?And so everyone who has got a history of political experience, be that Labour, be that conservatives, be that Starmer, who, you know, as director of public prosecutions, has been in the system for decades, they are now tarnished.And even though Farage, you know, we all know Farage has been around the block in many incarnations, many iterations, many name changes.

He's actually been in politics for longer pretty much than any of the party leaders.

He's managed to convince people with the sort of streak of an evangelist that he is the newcomer.And I guess the question really for reform, and there's some quite interesting numbers beneath the service, and one of the places that Peter Kellner, formerly of YouGov, has been looking at is that Reform look as if they've absolutely dominated the country, certainly in England.They have.But he thinks they'll be worried that this time last year they had a 41 % share of the English vote.Now it's more like 33%.You can't see that because you just see huge swathes of their success.

but possibly they're coming off.And there is a question of how long Farage can carry on being the neophyte, carry on being the outsider.As soon as he gets portrayed as part of the establishment, then maybe it's all over for him.And I would just argue that is a bigger problem than a problem for Keir Starmer or a problem for Labour, because it basically means we hate political experience of any colour, any shape.Right.We're done.

Yeah.I think there's a lot in that analysis.I think that the point about Britain having turned into arsonists i think that was ever thus at local council elections you know you hate the government in power so you voted liberal democrat that was the traditional way of showingyour displeasure and people would make these extraordinary predictions about how this was going to be the year when the Liberal Democrats were going to break through and suddenly become the next government.I mean what we've got is essentially at Westminster a system that is designed for two parties and we've now got five or six or seven and And there is kind of no way of knowing where this is all going to break.It was a terrific night for reform and for Nigel Farage.

And I think that I think that what we've seen actually during the campaign is the cleverness of Farage.and the problems that still exist for reform the cleverness when he's talking about immigration and i want to follow another american president who's been so successful and doesn't go to donald trump he raises barack obama understanding that the british public are not that fond of donald trump but him trousering five million quid as a personal donation i mean if you're trying to be the guy who says we are draining the swamp that looks pretty swamp like to be taking 5 million quid in a personal donation from some crypto guy who's got more money maybe than cents.So I think that there are problems of Farage in that as well.But look, let's not lose sight of this.The biggest problems are for Labour.They are for Keir Starmer, who has had a shocking night coming after a shocking couple of years in which he hasn't been able to articulate a clear vision of what it is that this government is about, wants to do.

And we heard in there, kind of in the introductory clip, they're talking about, oh, I take responsibility.Yeah, but what are you going to do about it?And a lot of Labour MPs, a lot of ministers, a lot of foot soldiers who've been out knocking on doors think it's time for Keir Starmer to go.And inevitably, that was the question that was being asked.when Beth Rigby from Sky caught up with him.

I'm not going to walk away from that and to plunge the country into chaos.

Did you contemplate that the problem might be you, that you might need to go to help Labour win these seats back?Did you even contemplate it?Did you acknowledge it as a conversation even?

Look, I think it's absolutely clear that the electorate are fed up with the fact that their lives are not changing quickly enough.This has been going on for a very, very long time.I think that we were right to emphasise to the country the difficult inheritance we had, the challenges we face, but we haven't done enough to convince people that things can improve, their lives can get better.The hope And I'm not going to walk away from that challenge.We made a number of calls which were the right calls in terms of stabilising the economy, investing in our public services and not getting dragged into the Iran war.But we also made unnecessary mistakes.

And my job now is to set out the steps that we will take to bring about the change that people want and deserve.

I think the Labour Party's got a decision to make.On the basis of these results, and it's not just these results, we've seen it over the past 24 months now, everyone you actually speak to in the Labour Party believes that Keir Starmer is a disaster for the Labour Party and he's proving himself a disaster for the Labour Party.The question is, is whether the Labour Party for once has got enough guts, enough bottle to do something about it.Why do I say that?Look, lots of things can be true at once, right?There are complexities with these election results and with politics at the moment.

We know that Labour is losing ground in every direction.They're losing to reform, they're losing to the Greens, and very often it is the Green vote which is costing Labour individual seats, absolutely, so it's not just all in onedirection to the right.Reform are often winning on small percentage of the vote for the reason you say, John, which is that we've got a fragmented party system being funnelled into this absurd anachronism, really, of first past the post.But none of that takes away from the fact that if you look around the country in places as different geographically and in tenor as Hartlepool, Tamworth, Tameside, Redditch, Newcastle -under -Lyme, Wigan, Bolton, Salford, Southampton, what we're seeing in Wales, what we're seeing in Scotland, reform are taking their place arguably as the most national party of any of the parties which are contesting these elections.A party that can genuinely say it is representing Great Britain from North, South, East and West.

And the truth is, is that what makes these election results different for reform, by comparison, you're right, Emily, Farage has been around for a long time, he's had lots of different political outfits, lots of different political incarnations, none of them ever before have made the sort of inroads into local government and different governing bases around the country, as he is now doing.UKIP never managed it.He never managed serious inroads in Scotland, a bit in Wales, but not really.If you go back further than that as well, the SDP never managing to achieve anything like this.As a breakthrough force, we haven't seen anything like this before.And I'm sorry.

Well, we have in the sense that Brexit broke everything, right?So he did it in a sense in 2016.He did it a decade ago which opened the way for and we've seen reform overnight and today perform much better still in Brexit voting areas.

Sure, but as I say UKIP never managed to achieve anything like it and you're right in a sense what you can sort of say is it is true to say that reform are doing better in the UK.in brexit voting areas you can say sort of in a way that politics is kind of local government maybe is catching up to that realignment perhaps but let's be clear even in jeremy corbyn's nadir even in his worst years he wasn't losing seats like this at the heartof the Brexit process.He wasn't going backwards like this.I'm afraid if you talk to people who've been out on the doorstep and you talk to Labour people privately, sometimes publicly, they'll all say the same thing.Fairly or unfairly, and some of it is unfair, No question, some of it is more deserved.

Keir Starmer, for whatever reason, is despised by the public of this country, by much of the population.He is despised.He is a massive electoral liability and the Labour Party have to basically make a decision.Do they want to stop a reform government or don't they?Because on the basis of all the evidence we have, Keir Starmer is not the man to do it.

I would suggest it's not that simple.Really?Yeah, I would.And I'll tell you why.Because when Liz Trust took over from Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer was the one who repeatedly called for a general election.Labour and Those around Starmer argued that the Conservatives no longer had a democratic mandate because the public could vote for Conservatives under Boris Johnson in 2019, not for trust.

Those calls for a general election became even louder after the mini -budget.When she resigned, Starmer said the Conservative Party has shown it no longer has a mandate to govern.He demanded a general election.So let's just fast forward to this place where the something -must -be -done brigade get rid of Starmer, right?It is entirely possible that changing the personnel at the top of the party does fuck all.right?

Because there isn't somebody with a massively new vision that's coming in.There isn't even a Burnham in a position where he can lead.There's lots of people around Starmer who frankly sound quite similar to him or would take the party in a way that actually might even help reform.But more important even than that is the fact that they will then get calls from every single party leader saying, well, if you think here Starmer had the mandate, which was what you said,Boris Johnson in 2019, then... bring on the general election.

And they'll ignore it.

Yes, they'll ignore it, as any governing party does.

And then they get into this cycle of, well, we can't trust you, well, you're the party, well, you said that, well, you're the hypocrite.They start on exactly the same process to self -destruction as Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak.

So they're in a burning building right now.They're in a burning building and they're going to burn and die within that building.So the choice is, is do you grab the hose and give yourself a chance?That's the question the Labour Party, can it be bothered?Is it willing to simply acquiesce, acquiesce to defeat?Because that is what the Labour Party does far too often.

They basically accept, because they do not very often have the guts, because they do not have the will to power that the Conservative Party does.

Because they don't have a standout alternative, frankly.

Frankly, at this point, anyone would be better.

But Lewis, I've spoken before about kind of Labour venerating its losers and kind of being shocked at people who turn out to be serial election winners.And that is part of the sort of where the Labour Party is so different from the Conservative Party.Conservatives historically where there is that brutality in the conservatives that its power at all costs I think that what's interesting and what you just said Emily is that no I was talking to someone this morning who's been around the top of labor politics for a long time and he says, you know This person thinks that Starmer is absolutely hopeless but says unless you've got a different policy offering what it you know, labor has consumed itself and with politics not policy and Labour has not told a story to the British people of what it's doing, how it all coheres, how it all adds up, and what it is the direction of travel that we're now embarked on.And I was told this story of a cabinet minister who was discussing Ed Miliband's energy policy.And the cabinet minister goes, yeah, I know, it's nuts, isn't it?It's terrible.

Could cost us the election.Well, what are you going to do about it?Well, it's difficult, isn't it?Because he's in quite a powerful position.And so I think that the problem that Labour have, I agree that Keir Starmer has turned out to be an absolutely hopeless advocate of what it is that Labour is meant to be doing and unclear and just hopeless at expressing a vision for the country.But equally, he's not going to change.

No, no, no, he's not going to change.

I mean, we had some briefing overnight saying the prime minister is going to prove himself to be less technocratic and less legalistic.I mean, I'm sorry, a phrase about old dogs and new tricks comes to mind.OK, Starmer is who he is.He's a man in his 60s who is a lawyer and he's been a leader of the Labour Party since 2020.Does the Labour Party in its soul, in its heart of hearts, its bones really believe that he has another gear, another mode, that he has something else to say?Or are they going to confront the fact that, as I say, fairly or unfairly, much of this country, much of the historic Labour base, does not want him to remain as prime minister?

Look, it would be great if Keir Starmer found a new narrative.It would be great if he had the guts to say, we need to do more Europe, or we need to do more alignment, or we need to work out actually where we're going to get the growth from.I don't doubt that.But I'm going to turn this on its head and put another proposition to you, which is, if you go back to kind of my original thesis, which is this is an arson attack.This is everyone feeling unhappy and blaming the people who are in government.There is a world in which the smartest thing for Labour to do right now is to say, come on in reform.

Yeah, come on in.Let's everyone get to know you.See what you're like in local government.See how you do the council.See what you do with your tax rises, with the council bills, all the rest of it.Because These figures, and I'm encouraging people to look below the headlines now, if you go back to Kelner, they were winning 41%.

This year they're on 33%.In other words, reform have peaked, right?I mean, we still have places to go.Reformhave in actual numbers come off their top.So if people get to know this party better, if they become the party of establishment, if they become not the neophyte, not the kind of evangelist who's just walked into town, not the guys on the stag do who say burn it down, rip it up, come on, tie yourself to a lamppost.

If they have to become the people that are part of the structure of local government, let's see what happens in two years' time.

I think we had this discussion this time last year.And I'm honestly thought...Staffordshire County Council.I thought that, look, I know that we'd like to think that, you know, there's going to be all this scrutiny of reform in local government and that that's going to somehow reveal to the public that they won't like them after all and they'll go back to the mainstream parties.I think it's fantastical.Honestly, I really do.

I think what this country is clear for 10 years now, at least, it has been crying out basically for economic change.It has been crying out.And it's no surprise that some of the most deprived parts of the country are swinging to reform hardest because they have nothing to lose.They are rolling the dice.

The economic change that they cried out for was Brexit, which has actually made us hugely, hugely worse off, right?So exactly the same people.

Well, actually, a lot of those places, actually, Emily, there's not that much evidence to say that those places in particular are much worse off.They were poor before.They were looking for economic change.They pulled on the exit lever because they had nothing to lose.And I think, frankly, the establishment, I don't like that phrase, but for want of the best phrase, is making the same sets of mistakes all over again by sort of pointing to people and going, no, look, these people are too radical.These people will destroy everything.

people don't have anything to lose.They just don't have anything to lose.I think this country is looking for political and economic shock therapy.

But we've been saying that literally for a decade.Maybe Labour needs to deliver some of it.Okay, so look, I think there is something that's really interesting in this discussion.which is what is the lesson from these local elections?What have we learned about the mood of the British people?What is it that they are anxious for and in previous election cycles you've said well Thatcher the poll tax it just has to go look at the way the Conservatives have been hammered at this election that's something that needs to change or maybe taxation maybe something else I don't know what the takeout is from this other than that people absolutely are contemptuous of of this government and are contemptuous as well, I think.

I mean, little, little tiniest green shoots for Kemi Badenoch, but I mean, you've been the principal party, you've been His Majesty's opposition for the past two years and you've got a uniquely unpopular Labour government.People are not flocking to the Conservative Party.And so I do think that it is very difficult.

Which I think is helpful.Weirdly, if what had happened overnight was that people had gone, we're done with Kirstarmer and Labour, we're going back to the Tories.And actually, there is some sign.I think the Tories' seat loss rate was 68 % last year.That's much lower this year.So, you know, they're having green shoots.

But it's not like people have gone, OK, we don't like Labour policies, we're going back to Conservative policies.They're saying, we hate all of you who've ever been in power, close to power, around power.within the establishment.We just want people who break things now.Right.Which is, it's why I keep saying this is an unsustainable model for our entire democracy, because Farage...

It's already broken for them.It's already broken for them.I don't think that's right.I don't think that they want people who break things.For a lot of these people who are voting for these parties, as we're seeing in other European countries as well, it's already broken.The political economic system for them is already broken.

They've got nothing to lose.

Yeah.But this is what we're saying.It's the same thing.They're going to the party that is not actually saying, I will do this, this and this.Right.We don't know what, apart from immigration, we don't

know what Farage's plans are for local government.We literally don't, right?He's, he's, what did he say last week?We're going to put, you know, migrant detention centres in everywhere that doesn't vote reform, right?I mean, is that why people voted reform?You know, he says actually, that was the point at which people started looking at them going, that's not very grown up.

That's a bit stupid.That's actually pretty, you know, un -British.It's not It's not something that a serious political party says.People aren't looking for serious politics at the moment.They're trying to tell everyone that they're really hurting.And I understand that, but let's wait and see what they actually come up with.

I think the Labour government, whether with Keir Starmer at its head or someone else, it needs to have a clear story of what it's doing and why it's doing it.It needs to be able to sell it compellingly and to kind of make people realise, you know, accept that an awful lot of people think they are absolutely hopeless, useless, shysters and are not very good at what they're doing and that they need to lean into that.And I think that if they're able to...Or being useless shysters, what?Yeah, but know that they've got a story to tell and they've got a direction of travel and they have got a policy agenda that is going to make them better off.I think it's virtually impossible right now.

So go on then, what is that?Well, I don't know, but given the Iran war...

But it's interesting because every time I've listened to an interview this morning and I've heard somebody from the Labour Party, some from government, try and set out what they're actually doing.And the interviewers always cut them off and say, yeah, yeah, but it's not working.Nobody wants to vote for you.Right.And so in a way, like.You know, and we're probably as guilty as this.

We don't talk that much about government policy.We don't talk that much about the things that are actually being done.And maybe that is about the message and communication.And, you know, I'm not I'm not I'm not here as a pretender for the Labour government.But I am trying to say we've got to a place where we just we just want to shout and scream at everyone without actually listening.

Let me give you one example of where Labour are probably getting into the right place, which is youand fostering a closer relationship with the European Union.Is that being sold as because it is a good thing to do and it's for our wealth or is it because we've got no option left and it feels like the Labour government is doing this saying yeah I know we've tried we've tried everything and it's been crap so we I think we just have to do this now that's not a very compelling argument to make to the British people if you want to win them over and I think that that's is it about personality then are you saying optimism I think I think there is an element of it which is absolutely personality I think it's more than an element honestly I I think I I really believe Look, people talk about this government needs to be more progressive.

You make a strong argument that this is one of the most progressive governments, most left -wing governments we've had for... for decades.If you look at the actual legislative agenda that the government has in all sorts of directions, whether we've seen it in Employment Rights or the Renters' Rights Act, which has just gone through, there's lots of other stuff as well.Tenants, housing.Yeah, pouring loads of money into public services.Increasing the pension.Yeah, you can make a strong argument this is the most social democratic government that we've had for decades.

And yet we have this situation where the Labour Party is bleeding votes to the Greens.I think that partly does go back to Keir Starmer's political strategy, the Morgan McSweeney strategy, where they decided to try and sort of basically tell the Greens or left wing voters, you know what?If you don't like it, you can leave.And guess what?They did.And they went somewhere else.

So there's bad political strategy from the beginning.But it's more than that.Honestly, I think it is about Keir Starmer.It is about the man.You know, sometimes we we talk about this guy as if he's Atticus Finch or something, that he's a man of sort of pure integrity and pure self -interest and pure sort of interest of the Labour Party.Let's be honest.

Right.If the Labour Party cared about its survival, and it cared about keeping reform out, they would be moving hell and high water right now to get Andy Burnham a seat in Parliament, the most popular Labour politician in the country, and either giving him a very simplerole or giving him the whole damn show.That's how high the stakes are.I think they probably are.

I mean, frankly, I think they probably are.I think this is going to take, what, four months?But I think by October, we will probably be there.

So I spoke to someone a couple of days ago, very close to Andy Burnham, who said to me, look, this is all moving, and it will move.and that what's going to happen is that a Labour MP will stand down, force a by -election, Kirstein will say, no, you can't stand because you're the mayor of Manchester, and he said, fine, I'll resign as mayor of Manchester.And the NEC has already said they won't get in his way.And press the nuclear button, and Burnham will get back to Parliament.Now, what is a safe Labour seat right now, given the results in the North West, which is where he would stand?Islington.

Are you talking North West London, not the North West of England?Exactly, that's how they've been going on.You can imagine that, you know, look, there are huge risks.for Andy Burnham in all of this, because he could roll the dice, resign as mayor of Manchester, stand in a by -election and lose.And then he is well and truly fucked.

Yeah.And Andy Burnham may have a bit of the David Miliband to him, right?Somebody who sort of goes towards the flame and then sort of backs off.I mean, we've seen that a couple of times with Burnham now, right?I think there probably is still a fire there.And I think he's probably just trying to choose his moment well.

But if I remember back to David Miliband and Gordon Brown, right, he kept on saying something must be done.Nothing happened.

all the circumstances that will save Keir Starmer and there are a few factors that you could sort of line up on a ledger and say well this might save him and that might save him they're all really negative reasons there's not a really great reason for say I mean yeah the bond markets will take fright at the idea of a more left -wing Prime Minister coming in and the cost of government borrowing will go up well that might save him there's no agreement about who the alternative candidate should be well and thecan't sort themselves out about that well that might save him none of them are arguments which says we should save him because he's bloody good at the job nobody is saying that you know when when Brown replaced Blair It was the battle that Brown fought and his allies fought, an attritional battle that Blair has to give a timetable by which he will stand down.And he was forced out.There were an awful lot of people who thought, my God, this is madness.Blair is brilliant.Why is this happening?

No one is saying, oh, yeah, but Keir is absolutely the right man for the job right now.And that is a really terrible place for a sitting prime minister to be.We'll be back in a moment with Luke Trill.

Well, Luke Trill has just walked into the studio.More in common.I thought you looked like a zombie, Luke, but you're kind of disgustingly fresh.It's ten past one in the afternoon.We're still waiting for quite a lot of Scotland and Wales.What would be your top line at this point?

What is your takeaway if people are just tuning into this?

Well, I think my takeaway is that we really can now write the obituary for two -party politics.You know, these elections have proved that the notion that we are in a Conservative versus Labour world is quite literally, dead and buried.And I guess that electoral fragmentation that we saw in 2024 and we wondered, you know, is this a blip?Is this a one -off?Is this an unenthusiastic election or an election which looked like it was going a particular way so people could afford to vote independent, green, reform?Was it just a book?

No, no.That fragmentation has gone into turbo charge in these elections.You know, there are places in the north of England where you've seen 50 point swings from Labour to reform.In places like Essex, reform have absolutely dominated that Leave voting heartland where Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverley have their seats.In other areas, you know, there have been wards where the Greens have pushed Labour from first place into fourth.They've just won the Hackney mayoral race on more than a 20 point swing.

You know, our politics is sort of kaleidoscoping in all sorts of different directions.

So if I did the sort of unforgivable and fast forwarded this to a general election picture, and obviously we know that this is about local issues, but it's also not We're talking about the potential of the party of government being won on a really small majority now, right?I mean, what is the smallest?Could you imagine a reformed government on basically 25 % of the vote?

Well, certainly on the high 20s, you could see that.And we see that in some of our MRP modelling.But I think that leads to another interesting thing that we're clearly starting to see a lot of in these elections, which is tactical voting really coming into its own.In Wales, from the early reports, we're seeing Labour squeezed because people think it's a plied reform fight there.But interestingly, I've been looking at some areas where the Tories hung on.So Bexley, Broxbourne, where it looks like, and this would have been unimaginable a few years ago, it looks like some Labour and Liberal Democrat voters lent their votes to the Tories because they saw them as the best vehicle for stopping reform.

So we're also moving into an era of politics.where it's going to be much more about who you want to stop rather than who you necessarily like.

Meanwhile, with the locals, we're seeing all these councils fall into an overall control, this big, massive grey.I mean, is that going to be an absolute shit show for governing there?Are we going to feel that?

Well, it's really interesting, right, because, you know, I think we've visited 40 different parts of Britain in the run -up to these elections and the one thing which has come out consistently is people want change.People feel that local national government isn't delivering on their priorities.Now if, and this is obviously in Westminster, a government with a huge majority can't deliver What is it going to be like in these local councils where every day is going to be bargaining between different parties going across them?It actually could be a recipe for making the disillusionment that people are rebelling against even worse.

So at the end of kind of today we've already heard Keir Starmer come out and say I will be the Prime Minister fighting the next election.Is he more vulnerable or is he safer?

I think he is more vulnerable because in some ways I think it would have been easier for Keir Starmer if we had come out of today and seen there was a very clear pattern of either Labour was particularly losing votes to the right to reform or was losing votes to the Greens.Because then you can do a pivot.Then you can start to say, do you know what, this is going to be the direction he's going.He's losing in both directions.My worry, if I were the Prime Minister, and look, I don't think that the seat losses are going to be at the very bad end of where they might have been, although I think Scotland and Wales are going to be pretty bad.But there's still going to be bad losses.

And we still haven't had places like Sunderland, in places like Manchester, Labour losing a lot of seats.There's more of London, where they will do badly.But I just wonder, from the conversations I've had with people in focus groups, whether the Prime Minister's window to reconnect is still there.That said, that there needs to be an alternative who can connect.

And in your focus groups, are people talking about other potential leaders?

Yes.The one thing I will say is that, you know, prior to the tax scandal, people used to talk really favourably about Angela Rayner.People used to say she's different, she's got something else, particularly that Keir Starmer doesn't have.As a Prime Minister?As a leader perhaps, but now people say, well she got in there and she was just the same as the rest of them.It's been a really tangible thought for Angela Rayner and I think Westminster seems to have almost moved on from the attacks, the public haven't.

Interestingly, the one person in the Cabinet whose name has started coming up more organically is Wes Streeting.It's not huge numbers of people, but I quite like that Health Secretary seems to be doing a good job, but he obviously has problems with the left of the party potentially, whether he could win the membership.And then, you know, I was in West Yorkshire, that's where we did our final road trip of this campaign.And even in West Yorkshire, on the other side of the Pennines from Manchester, people were bringing up Andy Burnham and saying, you know, we wish we had an Andy Burnham here.Actually quite cross with Starmer for having blocked him and saying it doesn't say good things about how they view the North.But then he's not in Parliament.

And whilst I think Andy Burnham has a big personal vote and would probably win a by -election, the results in parts of the North West do make you think.There isn't such a thing as a Labour safe seat any more, so you'd have to pick the right one.

And last thought, you talked about Angela Rayner's tax problem, but it seems like Nigel Farage's £5m donation isn't a problem at all.

It's interesting because again the five million does come up and I'll be interested in where reform and look reform are going to you know when the PNS which is the way John Curtiscalculates the national share.It'll be interesting to see if they're as high as they were last year.I think, based on the results we've had so far, they'll be around there.Still in focus groups, I was getting a lot of people saying, I'll vote for him this time.I'll give it a go.

But he does just seem to be getting a bit establishment.I've heard that phrase, establishment.About Farage.About Farage.And I think the five million plays into that.Look, for his true believers, doesn't make a difference.

There's another group who say, well, yeah, all politicians do it.But there's this other group who are sticking with them for now, but are saying, I don't like everything that I'm seeing.And I think the next few years will decide whether he keeps that group or whether actually things like the five million make them go, actually, you know, it doesn't feel right.

Really interesting.Luke Chill, thank you.

Thank you.

And I should just admit, as Luke Trill was sitting here talking about the end of the two -party system, he had a red sock and a blue sock, which is his customary neutrality.But it's starting to look quite anachronistic now.

Are you worried the news agents with our colouring is looking distinctly reform?I, for one, welcome our new reform overlords.

We got there first.But I think Luke needs about five other legs.to cope with where we're going.It's going to be a spider.A spider.Talking of which, or not really talking of which at all, John Curtis has done his projected national share, which is the sort of drum roll moment.

This came out about half an hour ago.What's the time?It's about half past two.And the projected national share is that moment where we're all allowed to go, OK, we're going to pretend for a moment these aren't local elections.What would happen if this was a general election?Just a bit of fun.

Just a bit of fun, as they were saying.There's massive fun.lights all over the BBC.That's exactly what gets you off, correct.Exactly.They always say things like, obviously, these are all about bin collections and potholes, but just for a bit of fun, let's have a look.

So here we are, drum roll.If this was a general election, it would be, and I guess, is this just for England, then, I guess.

I mean, it's complicated, isn't it?

It has to be.So reform would be on 26 % share of the vote, Labour on 19%, the Conservatives also on 19%, the Lib Dems on 18 % and the Greens on 16%.So what you've got there, essentially, is one out in front, clear leader, winner, but only on 26 % share of the vote, and then this cluster of all the other parties, basically within two points of each other.

So we've talked about Labour a huge amount on this and we've also talked about reform I do think there are moments that just cut through in politics that kind of just it causes the scales to drop from the eyes and I do think that the brilliant, as I think that Farage has been in the way that he's navigated a lot of the politics of the past two years.I do think this five million quid thing is problematic.I agree.I think it sticks in the mind.I think it makes him look just like every other politician and that claim to be above it all.And I'm bringing change and I'm the outsider.

Really?There's five million, then there's crypto.

And I will say this as well.I mean, actually, the relative lack of scrutiny.I'm not one, as we know, we talked about a lot, you know, to say, oh, it's always the media, you can blame the media for all Labour's problems, sort of in a way it was ever thus.But my word, I mean, the relative paucity of scrutiny about this, you know, when we think we had two months talking about a pair of bloody glasses and some suits or whatever happened to be at the Starmer, which actually, so much of the rot, you still get voters talking about it now, freebie gate, they're taking freebies and whatever.And then we discover, and alsoof those by the way they were declared they were declared and we had this five million which you know i mean i was asking reform spokesperson after reform spokesperson person last night on on the on the election show well okay Nigel Farage says it's for security.

Well, can we see the receipts?Can we just check so we can all just be absolutely certain it's all above board and so on, not even the meanest hint of impropriety.Oh, we don't need to do that.One point Richard Tye said.I said, well, why didn't we?Why don't we need to do that?

He said, well, you can just take my word for it.All right.That's OK.That's fine.

Look, Louis, little Louis.I mean, what this comes down to is unexpected versus Expected, right?That is the tragedy of this.Why was the Keir Starmer stuff a story?Because it was unexpected.With Farage, it's kind of expected.

It's built in, right?Is it a surprise that he goes off and launches a cryptocurrency, you know, company with Quasi Quarteng?people barely bat an eyelid.

I think that's such an interesting question, because then you're into the sort of Trumpian world as do different rules apply.Totally different moral compass.Well, I'm not sure about that.I think that we have, you know, Trump was the TV entertainer, the flamboyant business guy, the property tycoon from New York, always surrounded by beautiful women, etc, etc, etc.And so people said, oh, yeah, well, he would do that, wouldn't he?I think that British politics is judged differently even Boris Johnson who seemed to have that sort of Teflon coating he was brought down by you know his own behavior in the end in the end in the end but it happened quite quickly when it gathered speed and you don't know whether Farage will be damaged by this I'm just putting it out there I think this is something but also Labour just need to get that act together in terms of of firepower in attaching this stuff to the guy.

I mean, something that I thought, and I was talking to a couple of Labour people about this who had their heads in their hands during the campaign.I don't think we did it on the show because there was so much else going on, probably with Iran.But there was a point in the campaign where Labour actually had a very effective party political broadcast, where they basically got someone to mouth all of the different things that reform had sort of said, different sort of spokespeople, controversial things, controversial policy.That was the entire party political.And for some reason, Ofcom said that it wasn't allowed.Now, whether it is against the rules or not, can you imagine If reform, all the Tories for that matter, if that had happened to them, you would have had every reform MP or every Tory MP tweeting about it, saying this is a rigged system.

How dare you?The establishment is trying to shut us down.For just telling the truth.Because the Labour Party, frankly, are a bunch of political herbivores to offer.The MPs just go, oh, no, OK, that's fine.Yes, I suppose we probably did break the rules, didn't we?

They've got to change the game.They've got to realise that the game is different and they need to start acting like it.

So what about the Green Party on the strength of last night?Because we talked about, earlier this week, that Zak Polanski had had a bumpy few days, the comments he'd made after the stabbing of the two Jewish guys in Golders Green.Bumpy few days doesn't cover it.In that last poll from Luke, he was down, I think, 14 points, right?So do we think that the Greens are here to stay as an enduring force, or are they going to be kind of you know, have the lifespan of a mayfly where they kind of are bright coloured for a brief period and then disappear.

Can I say one thing?I think there's a very interesting observation in the response to that.tweet mistake.The entire Green Party, including Zak Polanski, have come out saying, I got this wrong, hands up, I fess up, which is not the position that a Boris would have taken or a Farage would have taken.They would have ridden it out.They would have said, as you say, you know, oh, stop it, the establishment, blah, blah, blah, blah, I should be allowed to say it.

I think there's something really interesting to see whether an apologyin 2026 works to restore damage done.

Paul Polanski's apology.

Yes.I mean, does it limit damage?

I mean, he's apologised so much for hypnoboobgate or whatever it's called.You know, he's asked about it in every single interview.And it doesn't matter.He has to.Yeah, it's interesting, because like on exactly that point, he apologised every single time.It doesn't get him anywhere.

You know, like he just asked to apologise.But does it stop it getting worse?I'm going to take a completely more cynical view of that apology, which was he didn't apologise for talking about whether the police had used too much force.He apologised for making it public and saying, I should have spoken to the commissioner privately.Yeah, you're absolutely right.He should have gone to the police himself.

Yeah.And in doing so, Ensured another news cycle where the story is not about the two Jews who've been knifed It's about the Muslim guy lying on the floor And I thought there was something distinctly Trump Ian about that in the way that you do something that you know A lot of people will find obnoxious but maybe you keep ready to your supporters and so it's perfectly possible that's also an explanation for the so -called apology?I mean, the Greens, I mean, they're having a good night.

Yeah, yeah.I mean, right now there are 76 seats.They're going to do well.They've been done really well in Manchester.They won the Hackney mayoralty.I'm sure we haven't had that many of the kind of sort of inner London results yet.

I'm sure they'll do very well in certain boroughs of London.It's also true to say that, you know, what is the big move that we've seen in politics with regards to the Greens?Well, it's been Polanski, who no, make no mistake, he has got them so much more attention, he has got them as part of the conversation.I mean, I don't know about you, I can't quite remember many times that Adrian Ramsey, when he was leader, made significant waves in the political conversation.And what he's done is moved them basically to be a sort of Corbynista party.That also has some consequences, right?

We've seen in some parts of the country, the slightly sort of more leafy, Lib Dem -y partsof the country, where they were starting to do well.Sutton.Sutton, exactly.That costs them because actually that sort of more economically populist, red -and -toothed agenda does not particularly resonate with those voters.But what we're absolutely seeing, there is absolutely no doubt that, you know, Emily, you talked about have reformed people.

Maybe they have.The worry for Labour is that maybe they haven't reached their floor.And it is possible that the Greens could have further room to grow.Let's not forget that Jeremy Corbyn, if we do accept that they are a sort of Corbyn Easter party, Jeremy Corbyn got 40 per cent of the votes in 2017.He got 33 .5 per cent of the votes in 2019.That's only 1 .5 per cent less than Starmer got in 2024.

And that's the other big part of this picture that we mustn't forget, right?Starmer was never very popular to begin with.And so, you know, there is potential room to grow and therefore there could be more places where they cost Labour more seats and more votes in other parts of the country next time around.

I mean, we should talk about the Hackney Mayor result, which is a 24 % swing from Labour to the Greens.And that was, you know, that's Diane Abbott, that's diehard red Labour stuff.Now, it's just one result.Obviously, we're still waiting on lots of London.They didn't, you know, interestingly enough, they didn't take the places like Hammersmith and Ealing and some of the places in sort of West London that we were talking about.You know, Labour did hang on there.

And I think that they will, you know, you were asking last night, where does Keir Starmer go to celebrate?

I guess that's where, right?

There are a few places in in West London that looked quite perilous for Labour at the beginning of this election, and they've firmed up.But we still don't know the rest of it.

I'm telling you what I'd be really interested to see is the breakdown of the age of the voters who are voting Green, and whether it's if you're in a young London borough, they're going to be voting Green in big numbers.And if it's a slightly older borough, they're going to be maybe a bit more prone to stick with Labour.

OK, let me say one other thing on that, because I think the same applies to reform now.If you look at where reform has done really well,on the sort of northwest parts of England, right, they are socially, economic, labour kind of strongholds, right.So labour must, so reform now must be thinking, what am I doing with Generic?What am I doing with Suella?What am I doing with Zahawi?

All these people that they just imported from the Tories, that's not who's voting for reform.

I may have actually started to be one of the reasons they may have peaked, if they have peaked.Completely.

So Reform's actually got to start thinking, you know, were they right to back the triple lock?Were they right to sort of go on this Conservative line?

I mean, the Tories kept Suella's own council last night in Farnham, in her own backyard.The Conservatives actually retained it rather than going to Reform.

Although embarrassingly, I think Reform would have taken Kemi Badenoxie in Essex.

And this is the thing, I mean, in a way, I mean, this is the conversation the Labour Party is going to be having, right?Even if it accepts at the time being that Starmer, they're not willing to move against him for lots of different reasons we've discussed.These elections, what they will do is intensify the two pillars of the party, basically the two parts of the coalition.You'll have large tranches of the party in London and urban facing seats where the Labour Party is dominated for 15 years.You say we've got to take the green threat more seriously.We've got to sound more progressive.

We've got to move to the left.And then you're going to have sort of the Red Wall places where they've got reform breathing down their necks.You've got to be joking.I mean, you mentioned the EU.Emily, and this idea that Keir Starmer is going to, you know, want to signal we're going to get closer to the EU.You're going to have a whole load of Red War voters who are going, what?

You must be joking.This cannot be the time that we turn around to my constituents who were heavily Brexit voting and now voting for reform.I mean, Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy.

I think it was Tamworth and Wigan where they were pretty much wiped out there, right?

And this is basically what the Labour Party's got to work out, right, which is that on paper, it's like the reform coalition now.You've got Essex, you've got these places in the north of England, you've even got some in sort of semi -urban seats.On paper, Scotland, Wales, it kind of looks like this isn't a coalition which should cohere, but that's the point.right?Successful political leaders do gel these unwieldy coalitions and Labour's got to find someone.I don't think it can be Starmer, but if it is Starmer, he or they have got to find someone who can gel these two poles again.

I mean, that's the thing.Brexit is still not over.

All other things being equal.We will be back on Monday.But this is not a weekend where things might be that equal.So who knows?Maybe see you Sunday.Maybe see you Monday.

Little Louis needs to go to bed now because he's been up all night.

I'm not going to bed.It's only 71 of 136 councils in May.

We think we are going to be speaking to Sadiq Khan on Monday.So we may get some more insights into just how the wider Labour family might be Labour leader by then.Indeed.Yeah.Bye.

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