Even CBC Can't Ignore What's Happening to Carney

Donald Trump you know, for all his faults is smart.

The veil's been lifted.Welcome back to Moose and Loose on CBC.We've got pundits telling the truth about what's really going on with Kuzma, the renegotiations, Mark Carney negotiating with Donald Trump.Have they had enough of covering for the guy?Let's jump into this.Starting this episode off from the National Post, we've got Trump's new U .

S.customs rules could upend Canadian exports.On June 3rd, Donald Trump signed executive order that seeks to tighten U .S.customs enforcement to crack down on trade fraud.As we know that Trump is threatening another 50 % percent tariffs on goods under the 338 tariffs starting August 19th.

Carney facing a lot of pressure on this to get a deal.Well, it turns out this is actually worse than we thought.It says here they're going to a stricter importer regime directing U .S.authorities to strengthen the importer registration, bonding, disclosure, vetting and enforcement, said Martha Goncalves, partner for tax customs and international trade at PwC Canada.The U .

S.is actually raising the bar on who can import and how much information they must provide.America is making it harder.We've got these potential 50 % tariffs.Canada races for interim deal before Trump's 50 % tariff inflamed trade feud.There is so much pressure going on right now.

Polyev has come out with this saying no more caving.Polyev urges against concessions in U .S.trade talks.This is smart because if Carney caves, I mean, it doesn't look good.But then Polyev is saying no more caving.

He's taking the opposite stance.And really, we have enough leverage to do this.So this is a smart stance from Polyev, as he pointed out, using critical minerals and a stockpile of that as well as oil, gas, etc. having first buyer rights to America for anything that they want, germanium, or anything that they need for their night vision goggles, for F -35s, etc.All of that, which leads us over to CBC.

How would you assess, is it too early to sort of assess what the chances are, do you think, based on what we know so far, of whether there can be some kind of landing zone to have Canada avoid even more tariffs by August 19th?

I think it is too soon to tell, as I said a moment ago.There's a lot of energy, a lot of work going on, buttoo soon to tell.and they're right to say this, that they won't accept a bad deal.So if the Americans aren't willing to put some water in their wine and we come to the 19th, we could very well see talks break apart.And frankly, at this very moment, my judgment is it's more likely there won't be a deal than a deal on the 19th.

So it looks like they're trying to set this up.So they're preparing Canadians, maybe there won't be a deal that's coming.This guy's very liberal, but there's other pundits on here that not holding back on how Carney is negotiating.This is a very fast moving fluid situation and we're going to have to see what happens.

You are one of a very few Canadians who knows Jameson Greer.Jameson Greer was part of Robert Lighthizer's team who served in the role before he took this on.There was, of course, the Biden administration in between there.But you know him.What should Canadians know about Jameson Greer?career and who the Canadian team is up against right now.

Well, he's a smart guy.He's a he's a tough negotiator.He was there throughout the NAFTA negotiations as Bob Lighthizer's chief of staff, as you say.And so he Canadians should know that he is pushing for Donald Trump's agenda.He agrees with that agenda.He's pushing for it.

And frankly, that should be his job as as the USTR.

I was going to say of all the members of Donald Trump's cabinet, he is one of the most serious with the most experience in his particular field.And I think that for the Canadian government, that that might ultimately present an even bigger challenge because he is such a serious and sort of, you know, knowledgeable, authoritative figure when it comes to.

And we don't have that on our side.We don't have serious authoritative people on our side negotiating.Yeah, that sums it up.Now they bring on this lady and she just says it straight out.What Donald Trump is doing here, it's not good for us.but he's smart.

He's smart about how he's negotiating with us.

Donald Trump.you know, for all his faults, is smart.The 338 tariffs that are threatened to come in a week and a half target BC, Ontario and Quebec.So if those premiers say, no, our booze ban stays in effect, then those same premiers are looking at a 50 percent tariff that decimates some of their key industries.And so he has them cornered in many ways.The prime minister says we are there are positions of strength that Canada has.

He keeps those cards close to his chest.So we're just seeing what's in public.And I would say, you know, these are flashbacks for you more than for me, Katie, but they are much more careful in what they share and what they leak privately even, or even what meetings they acknowledge, compared to the last round that we saw in 2016, 17, 18.

Or where they will speak to the press or not doing it.

Or whether a minister was at public events that are later socialized on Instagram.Yes.There you go.It's quite the trip.

This is interesting here.Carney's lack of negotiating is getting exposed here.Basically, Trump is out negotiating the premiers and Mark Carney.

Ginny, one thing that here, Polly of the conservative leader had flagged earlier this week is that he is concerned that Canada has given up, made too many concessions and that it was whittling away its sort of bargaining power.Do you think that the reporting that we've learned today that that perhaps that might be something that he'll he'll sort of seize on as as he criticizes how the government's handled the Canada -U .S.relationship?you ship.

I think so.I mean, Jono gets at the challenge for all the politicians involved.The politics is very different from the reality.And that challenge is much worse for the prime minister.These premiers get to, whether they have an election soon or an election down the road, they get to make this entirely political because they're not the ones that have to do the deal.And they love the politics of playing tough.

David Eby loves the politics of playing tough, and he keeps trying to elbows up, push back against Trump.It's not working.You look at the polls.David Eby is tanking to Carrie Lynn Finley.So while some of these primers are trying to use this like Wab Kanu to elbows up against Trump to rally up, it doesn't always work.And it's backfiring in some situations.

months in the lead up to becoming prime minister and then ultimately through the campaign and that now that he's since prime minister.And I think that's going to be the point that Pollyann's going to try to make is you can't have it both ways.You can't you can't say your elbows up, get the political theater, get the political benefit, and then also be the person that's that's that's compromising, you know, not included in this reporting because it happened earlier.Maybe it was, but not as part of the deal was coming up on the DST.You know, all these sort of concessions that we that that the Prime Minister made up to this point where we heard, oh, maybe we're going to get a deal now.The Americans have asked for this.

We're going to do it.Those concessions already happened.We can't get those back.And now we have fewer and fewer things on the table to play around with.And we know that the PM doesn't want to move really far on supply management.So maybe he's willing to make some tweaks.

So I'm curious to see what is beyond the reporting that we've already seen, because we also know that the president drives a hard bargain and he's not likely to settle for sort of going back to the status quo.

I'm recap - and Donald Trump is smarter than me.and negotiating better than him and cornering our different sectors in the different provinces.These kind of panels here are going to start to wake people up because there's only so long Carney can hold on here and he's starting to lose it.

It was the Globe and Mail that first broke this story this morning.I'm just wondering what stood out to you from the reporting that your team has done on this as well.

Well, we have more reporting and updates coming tonight.And I think what stands out to me is that As Janie and Jono mentioned, the prime minister will have to make concessions in this, and it wasn't part of his branding coming into office.And public opinion polling shows it's not where Canadians are.The prime minister's office has not done a lot of groundwork laying in terms of setting expectations for Canadians in terms of the concessions and the possibility for pain as part of this deal.It has been very close to the chest.what that means and so that leaves I think Canadians in the dark and it leaves a question for me politically as to how they now sell this to Canadians.

But one of the things we're starting to hear is that a baseline across the board tariff is part of the talks on the broader USMCA.I'm sure that doesn't come to you as a surprise, Katie.But the fact that people are now acknowledging that I think is really significant.

You hear that baseline tariff across the board on USMCA baseline tariff.Now, while the current agreement is in place for the next 10 years, they could renegotiate it.Is that what Carney's going to do is put a agree to a five, 10 percent tariff on everything to get these other sectors opened up?That would be good for America.He's 91 percent invested in America.Oh, what's going to happen here?

Canadians voted in the wrong person.

And it leads to more questions about So what else?Again, this is early.Talks are still ongoing.They're changing by the day.So who knows where this lands?But we are hearing more and more from Canadian officials that some form of tariff is going to be here to stay.

Yeah.So some form of tariff here to stay.Carney's flip flopping.He's conceding.It's all theater.Donald Trump is out negotiating him.

Carney is getting destroyed.He is getting exposed on CBC to the very people that vote for the guy.This is a good panel for Canadians to watch.I sure hope a bunch of Canadians do see this.

I understand it to be around the 232 tariffs and the steel and aluminum.Those are not going to be going away.But the question is, can the Canadian team get those lowered?Our reporting has been through industry sources that the Canadians want to be able to go out there publicly and say, we have the best market access.to the Americans and want to be able to hold on to that and point to that factually.So they want a lower rate than what others are doing.

But it's, Jono, you know, how difficult is it, a point that Marieke made, how difficult is it going to be for the Carney government to try to sort of sell this as a win to Canadians when it is going to have to come with concessions?

Look, we've gotten this far.We're 14, 15 months into the Carney administration, and Canadian public opinion seems to have followed along as things have evolved and I think there's probably a general understanding, I don't think that far into the weeds, but a general understanding that Getting the best deal possible, getting a deal that is an improvement over the current situation, not the status quo before all of this, but the current situation, so if it's reducing the 232s on those core industries, if it's having a baseline tariff that's low and lower than any other country, yes, he's gonna have to sell that as this is the best deal possible, but if we compare it to other countries, and if in fact that's the case, we stand in a better position, Canadians so far have gone along with that and I suspectprobably will.It'll depend on really where the pain points remain and where.

This guy is so nervous, you can tell.Former advisor to Justin Trudeau, he doesn't know what to say with this.He knows Canadians are starting to lose support in Carney.Carney is not living up to his promise of getting a deal with Donald Trump.That's why people voted for the guy.He said he could get a deal.

He's proving he cannot.