'EVERYBODY HATES ISRAEL': Trump LIGHTS UP Bibi Amid Ceasefire Collapse

Good morning, everybody.Happy Tuesday.We have an amazing show for everybody today.Bro show.People live for the pound.It's good to see you, Ryan.

Thank you very much for joining me here on this great Tuesday.Oh, my God.What a difficult job setting up the elements.Iran.We're going to start with Iran.An explosive alleged new phone call between Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu, where he cusses him out uh... and uh... what is it what it is what else is he say he cusses him out he says i saved you everybody hates everybody hates you all of this Allegedly, what's up for you doing?

Yeah, what the fuck are you doing?Allegedly allegedly Netanyahu and his proxies are denying and all of this of course on the heels of this fire That from the Israeli side on to Lebanon after some Hezbollah rockets over Israel Trump says allegedly it's all over We'll see a little bit about that in terms of the ceasefire.We're gonna talk about AI Anthropic filing for its IPO their stocks skyrocketing trillion dollar valuations Stock markets are literally at all -time highs.Meanwhile, the Florida Attorney General actually suing OpenAI for harm to children, and we're basically just going to spend some time on this.The backbone of the entire U .S.

economy is AI, I guess.Hope it works out, and I guess hope it doesn't work out.Kind of screwed either way.And to talk about JD Vance, there's a new New York Times story saying Trump is hesitant on him being the 2028 fund, the front runner, asking and polling some people as Marco Rubio stock apparently is rising behind the scenes.Dave Rubin.We just, we had to do it.

I mean, you know, we don't usually do these types of segments.No, that's true.We do.You know, he traveled to the Jubilee set.He did Surrounded.And right before he went on Surrounded, there was actually a mashup of all of his failed predictions on the Iran war.

And it's one of the rare cases of these like 20 year oldsjust absolutely schooling this dude to its face.It's just fun.Let's all revel in it together.

Looking forward to that one.

And then finally, David Dayen of the American Prospect.He lives in California.He's going to join us actually here in studio.We're going to break down the California governor's race and then the L .A.mayor's race, the two highest profile races in their jungle primary system, which starts today.

I believe we're not going to know the results for quite some time because of the mail -in ballots and the way that things get tabulated.

And we'll see.And I'll probe Dan about some of the key House races out there, which reminds me, are there no House Republican contests other than Massey?I can't think of one.I haven't heard of them.Well, Troy, there are a few little ones.Democrats have a half dozen races around the country and they're growing where there's a real contest.

like for the direction of the party?It doesn't seem like that's happening.No, it's all just about Trump.

I mean, right now, in terms of the Trump endorsement, there's a few - Because they all vote with Trump, so what's the - Exactly, so there's really nothing to be said.Part of why it's so boring, having to really spend that much time on it.Thank you to everybody who has been subscribing to the show, BreakingPoints .com.This is gonna be a big month for us.

Yesterday was actually our five year anniversary.

We didn't even mention it.So here we go, five years here of Breaking Points.Now we have Ryan, we have Emily.We have a new big thing launching this month.So you're going to want to get in for that BreakingPoints .com.

become a premium subscriber.If you're watching this on YouTube, please hit subscribe.And if you're listening to this as a podcast, please share an episode with a friend.It really helps other people find the show or rate us five stars.But let's go ahead and start with the alleged big bust phone call, let's put it up here, on the screen from Mark Caputo and Barack Ravid, the dynamic duo over at Axios.I'm saving your ass.

Everybody hates you now.Everybody hates Israel because of this.Now, Brian, this allegedhappened in a Trump Netanyahu phone call yesterday afternoon Okay It came on the heels of that dramatic announcement from Netanyahu that they will be expanding their operation in Lebanon to include issuing an evacuation order in the Daya district of Beirut.And so what it signaled was renewed in massive strikes on the Lebanese capital, all in the midst of these alleged ceasefire negotiations and things that had been happening.We did report yesterday that there was some ceasefire talk and all of that going on.

Trump, by the way, has now said that Hezbollah has agreed.We'll get to that here in a second.But let's throw the next element up there on the screen just to show you what the reaction is like from neocons here in Washington.Mark Levin saying that the leak in Axios was a violation of federal law and provided support to the Iranian regime and its Hezbollah.Wow, to Israel's prime minister.It must be treasonous, right?

in our military and our diplomatic strategy.If the leakers or others believe Israel should abandon its survival for some deal, they will have a hard lesson to learn.If the substance of the call is accurate, it is bad enough, in my view." You know, I mean, what I think is just really shocking, Ryan, is in any way that this phone call where he curses him out is indicative of real policy.We have seen this time and time and time again,from five American presidents now who curse Netanyahu in private, sometimes they even curse him in public.

And yet when it comes time for the dollars, for the bombs, for the Iron Dome and for the fad, man, it sure does seem like they get every single thing that they want, doesn't it?

Yeah, we, right.We can talk about like how it happened, what precise words he might have used, the severity of his anger, the number of cuss words he threw at him.But you're right, what matters is what's on the ground, and that is that Trump is still stuck in, and I hate to glaze Professor Pape, but stuck in that escalation trap.He's stuck right in there.And okay, so it does look like he got him to not bomb Beirut right now, You know probably saved hundreds of lives in the you know for the for now for the near term They've killed Israel has killed thousands of people in in Lebanon southern Lebanon They continue to encroach forward.They've pushed across the Latani River at this point and You know the the agreement that Netanyahu is saying he's reached is that okay?

Well, we won't shoot at them as long as Hezbollah doesn't shoot inside Israel What Netanyahu seems to be trying to do is lock in?The kind of territorial gains that they have made to this point to say like, okay Now we're we're everywhere that we are.You can't shoot your FPV drones at us anymore.You can't attack us We're just claiming all of this right and Hezbollah's like no no, no, no No, here's an idea like leave Lebanon like go back to Israel if you don't want us to shoot at you in Lebanon Don't be in Lebanon anymore and they are taking significant casualties like yesterday They took that stupid Beaufort Crusader castle or like took it a couple days ago.We cover that and then yesterday It looks like three Israelis were killed with FPV drone attacks in that in that areaor right around outside of that castle and according to my colleague Maz What has below saying is that because Israel celebrated their conquest of this Crusader castle and put up videos as well as able to study exactly where they were and just quickly send a drone swarm and and killed several of them and it's it's Also a pointless fort to be holding right which Griffin told me there's actually a film.

Yes, like 2007 about the futility of taking this last time It's almost like these religious crusader wars Don't usually have a point and don't particularly work out for anybody and but I guess for the people who will get a sequel Hopefully, let's put this next one up here on the screen Netanyahu's proxy Amit Segal of Israel says exclusive according to a a very senior official on the PM's team.I wonder who that is, the late night Netanyahu call.The access report is inaccurate.Trump did not make personal remarks about jail or claim Netanyahu is hated globally.Instead, he focused on the conflicting social media posts.Trump felt Netanyahu implied that the war was continuing at full intensity, while Netanyahu felt Trump implied a total ceasefire.

Trump did note that defending Israel's global position is difficult and breeds hatred.Ultimately, the call ended with an understanding Israel will hold off on striking Beirut as long as it's not attacked, within its own borders.So that last part actually makes a lot of sense because What Netanyahu currently has been trying to do is saying that every time Israelis who are occupying Southern Lebanon, IDF soldiers get attacked, that is then itself a pretext.However, remember, they are occupying almost half of the entire country, not just occupying, saying, we're not leaving.Like, you don't take casts.You can't be here.

You have to evacuate.

You have to leave.Like, literally.I mean, the craziest thing, I think you guys reported this, was when they were contacting someone,what was it, Sunni and Christian families, and being like, hey, if you've got any Shia people, they gotta go.

Right, yeah, the Christian villages.

Right, yeah, going to the Christian villages, any Shia residents, they have to go, and if you shelter them, we're gonna kill you.They're checking the attics.Wow.

Yeah, it's like, bro.

Bro.Really?Yeah, exactly.Very, right, yeah, you can draw the historical parallel there for yourself.Let's put A1 up here on the screen.This is Trump's readout of the call.

I had a very productive call with Netanyahu.There will be no troops going to Beirut.Any troops that are on their way have already turned back, which, by the way, was a real breaking news because that's not even originally what was being told.They said they were going to bomb them.We didn't know that they were going to Beirut.I mean, they may be, though, right?

They may have actually been on their way.Likewise, through highly placed representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah.They agreed that all shooting will stop, that Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel.Remember, Hezbollah has already come out and said, no, that's not true.We will definitely attack Israelis who are in Lebanon.Israel.

yesterday in terms of the Israeli strikes that were on this city, allegedly, again, always a Hezbollah stronghold.So you can see why in Lebanon, you have already had, what, hundreds of thousands of people displaced, IDF soldiers occupying a significant part of the country, issuing evacuation orders, which thousands actually abided by in the Dayya district of Beirut.They're like, okay, hey, we gotta go.They're about to level off.Iran had suspended all diplomatic communication and messages with the U .S.,S.

, according to Iranian state media.The decision was reportedly due to Iranian opposition to the Israeli strikes against Hezbollah.And so, again, to bring it back, I think, to Professor Pape's analysis here on the show, he said two things.First, he has his framework of the escalation trap.But the second was about how Iran has turned into a world power.And what you have watched now is this great strategic folly of Israel.

Iran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and over the nuclear issue and the ability to not surrender to the United States has enabled them to use the Strait of Hormuz and diplomatic talks, which Trump desperately, desperately wants, as leverage to obtain restraint on Israeli action in Lebanon.And so, whenever they say, hey, we're pulling out of the deal, or we're suspending all talks if these strikes are going to continue, Trump immediately has to pick up the phone and restrain Israel.First of all, it shows why this is probably a doomed effort in the long run, because Israel is there and constantly wants to be pushing these things, but it demonstrates Iranian veto power.And this is really what Mark Levin and others are freaking out about, is that for them, it's intolerable because they created this monster Iran able to shut the Strait of Hormuz, able to have all this leverage in diplomatic talks, while also having literal Israeli action, even yes, extreme Israeli action, be restrained.I'm not going to say they haven't won in the near term with all their occupation, but the fact that Iran has that ability literally to just come in and say, nope, the entire thing is off if this continues.And then the president has to pick up the phone and call them only demonstrates their power in these negotiations.

Yes, absolutely.That's the key point.Iran said, as a result of all of these Israeli attacks on Lebanon, we are cutting off contact with the American mediators, the mediators between us and the United States.And Trump immediately called.Immediately.Yes, that is the key point.

But Trump does not seem to want to take that to the next step.Exactly.Which is, okay, if that is genuinely the power relationship that exists here at this moment, certainly given oil prices and the global economy approaching freefall, then I need to do something about this.He gets that, but the something, he just can't get himself to it.Because there's just no way to thread the needle of resolving this without it being utterly humiliating.I mean, I would sign on to some type of thing.

I won't make fun of him for two weeks, a month.

What do you need?Let me put A4 because this is where I really want your analysis because it's really complicated.Let's put A4 up here on the screen.that Hezbollah has agreed not only to cease attacks on Israel, but also to cease attacks on all IDF soldiers in Lebanese territory as a request of the Lebanese government, which again is not Hezbollah, but they're, you know, have some sort of back channel.How much faith should we put into this?Because again, Hezbollah had denied at least some of this in part.

We don't know yet how much of it is true.but could you explain those dynamics of Lebanese government, Hezbollah, the current ceasefire talks?Because it doesn't actually include Hezbollah.That's what's so confusing.

The key line here and the way it's phrased is with the scope of the ceasefire subsequently being expanded to encompass the entirety of Lebanese territory.So what that means is it's going in phases.So first, Israeli strikes on Beirut have to stop.And then Hezbollah strikes on Israel will have to stop then some other things have to happen that that's what's left Unsaid in between the comma and the width here and then subsequently there would be a ceasefire across all of Lebanon So then that's where the that's those the that's where the devil resides in between there what else what is Hezbollah asking for a full agreement with Iran and that includes Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, which is Iran's demand in which case Subsequently not firing within Lebanese territory would make sense because there would be no idea of troops there.They've they withdrew last time Who's there's I suppose hoping that they will withdraw again Israel's clearly doesn't have any intention of doing so so This is a very difficult difference to bridge here.

Yeah, and let's put A5 up there on the screen immediately after his Netanyahu call leaked Trump truths.Talks are continuing at a rapid pace with the Islamic Republic of Iran.Thank you for your attention to this matter.And so, look, all of this was market related because what happened is Netanyahu, as we coveredBrent crude surges by 8 % stock futures drop after the Trump phone call with Netanyahu leaks and his truth social post is Goes up, then the stock futures went up and I believe some oil went down, but let's not forget I mean, what's the Brent crude 85 early at let's say?$93 on Maryland And if I were to look at gas prices nationally, it's still $4 .29 a gallon, and diesel's still sitting around $5 .43 a gallon, which is only 40 cents or so off of the all -time high back in 2022.

All of this together, it's not like anything is really happening.

I mean, last week - and strategic reserves like depleted.

Yeah, yesterday, I believe that the SPR will reach its lowest level ever by next week.Total oil inventory is near record lows.We were gonna cover this yesterday.The Chevron CEO was talking about how it's basically inevitable for oil to go to 140, 150 a barrel, which translated to gas terms is roughly $6 a gallon.simply because he's like, look, we don't have any more oil.

It's like, we don't have that much oil.

It's like - You want it, you gotta pay.Yeah, he's like, somebody's gonna have to pay for it.It's a global commodity.The straits close, Japan, Korea.You have multiple months now where, you know, it takes a long time for these tankers to move across the ocean.So a lot of the orders placed in the middle of the war, some of them are already just now either arriving here or are caught on their way to their current destination.

And, you know, it takes a while for all of this stuff to empty, but the bills come and do.And I mean, basically already do with gas.$4 .29 a gallon.Let's go to A6 here from Trump.This was also his immediate reaction, by the way, just to show you how flailing this entire thing.When the news initially broke that Iran was going to cut off talks, he told this to an NBC News reporter.

I think we've been talking too much, if you want to know the truth.I think going silent wouldbe very good and that could be for a long time It doesn't mean we're gonna go and start dropping bombs all there.We will just go silent We'll keep the blockade blockade is a piece of steel I think I can wait as long as they want they're losing a fortune the art of the deal author He said also seemed to have been some grudging respect for negotiators when I first asked about reports or suspending talks quote It's an appropriate thing to say because they're better negotiators than they are finance You know, I mean, Trump is pretty good fighters too, apparently.Yeah, not bad.I think what they are seeing is the futility of this Gordian Knot that they are in.

He can either buckle or he can escalate.And that's the escalation trap, ultimately.In the meantime, they're trying to have everything half -assed.And even just with Israel, can we all ruminate for a second that, you know, the best thing The Titanic phone call is over Israeli strikes on Beirut, not the occupation of half of the country, which they claim will never be given back to the residents ever again.They literally say it.What do they say about Lebanon?

Southern Lebanon, they're like, you will never return.You will literally never return.They just say it out loud.And that's the ceasefire position.If anything, by the way, the Hezbollah and Iran and all of them, not willing to fight while half of their country is occupied is nuts, I mean, from their perspective.

And it's also crazy that the sticking point between two countries, the United States and Iran, when it comes to reaching a deal, is what Israel wants to do in Lebanon.Like, if you just came to this cold, you'd be like, well, that sounds like a separate thing.because the wars between the United States and Iran, as far as we're told, and it's like anti -Semitic to say anything else.So then why is it being hung up by this other conflict that doesn't have anything to do with us?

Yeah.If you were to say, hey, we could all pay less in gas and we can negotiatebilaterally tomorrow, but Israel just has to withdraw from a country which is literally not theirs, everyone would be like, oh.Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah, cool.The only people who wouldn't sign that deal are the Israelis, right, who are for the most part intolerable.Yeah, we're like, okay, cool, yeah, fine.

We should still reach a deal with Iran.Yeah, we could just reach a deal with Iran.You guys just have to leave Lebanon.You know, it sucks for you.And if not, Iran can deal with it.It's not really a problem, exactly.

But ultimately, that's why, you know, maybe we can edit this in post.I've just been thinking about this all day.So one of my friends sent it to me.This is the mindset of Mark Levin.who basically is a traitor to the United States for doing something like this.We will soon celebrate the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

We're off to a good start, Ryan.The declaration was in essence a declaration of war against the most powerful military force on earth, the British Empire.He ruminates on the patriotism.Every delegate who signed that document had signed their own death warrant.Here's where it gets good.Let us remember this when we listen to the debates about whether or not we should defeat the Iranian regime.

So we have a full paragraph here, which is all about the courage of the American Revolution, and how much everything was on the line.And now he goes, all the arguments and even excuses against it, despite 47 years of its killing, maiming thousands of our fellow countrymen, 47 years of lies and deceit, decades of developing nuclear and missile technologies to obliterate our nation, and a far more dangerous and diabolical ideological agenda than that of the British monarchy, yet, George Washington and the brave founders of our country personally risked everything.Ultimately, the British forces surrenders.The Iranian regime will never surrender.They will never abide by a deal any more than they have abided by a ceasefire.I am mindful only 35 % of colonists supported a war with Britain.

My view may be similarly be a minority view today.I hope not, but if it is, so be it.So he links the pluckiness and the courageof the founders of the American revolution to his support for the war with Iran, which he now says is unpopular by his own view, but it's just as just of a cause as the American founding was.Imagine the psychology of that.

The irony, of course, which I bet a bunch of viewers have picked up on is that The Iranian revolutionaries were inspired by the American revolutionaries.We both threw off the British.The Iranians threw off the British.The Shah was an American and British puppet.We installed the Shah because Iran had nationalized British Petroleum, like a British oil company, and the Brits wanted us to take it back for them.

And so then the Iranian revolution threw them back.And I don't even know why we did it.In retrospect, when you read it, you're like, why did we do this?

Yeah, why did we do this?They wanted to be our allies.They were a democratic government.They just wanted control over their oil resources, which is a completely reasonable thing to want.

And we're not talking about 1912 or when the British Empire is at its peak.We're talking about, what is it, 1953?Yeah, they were already getting cooked in the Suez.

They were on their way out.

Why are we fighting for these people?

So yes, there are parallels to the American Revolution and the overthrow of the British monarchy.but it doesn't go in the direction that it thinks it does.

support for the American Revolution, to support for war with Iran, which is existential in no way whatsoever for the United States, but is existential for one country, to Israel, you should ask, okay, who are you loyal to?Literally, like, if you believe that it's so existential, then that means that you seem to be much more loyal to Israel than to the United States, because you know what's more existential to the US?Oh, I don't know, $6 a gallon gasoline, which by the way, he even says, is not that big of a deal.So yeah, he's willing to sacrifice all of you, you know, for his war and so on.try and tell you that you're just like George Washington if you support it.That's the level, though, in some ways it's good.

If that's how reductive the propaganda has gotten, then it shows how untenable support the war is for itself.Because this is what the Iraq War was like, and I remember it well.

As the Founding Fathers said, we must always go in search of monsters to destroy.I think that's what it said, right?

Yeah.address said, we must go abroad in search of monsters to destroy.So well said.All right, let's get to AI.