EXCLUSIVE | One Nation founder's grim prediction for next election

We've got a prediction coming from the One Nation founder, David Oldfield.I don't think it's a prediction that you're going to want to hear, but it's about what he's expecting at the next election.One Nation has just taken another hit in the polls.According to Resolve, support for the party has fallen for the first time in four months, their primary vote dipping to 26%.Mind you, it's still very high.Pauline Hanson's personal popularity has also suffered.

25 % of voters say she's the preferred Prime Minister.That's down 8 % since last month.Live in studio, David Oldfield, one of the founders of One Nation.Good morning, Ben.Thank you for having me.What do you make of the drop -off?

It was bound to happen, right?What goes up must come down.

I kind of thought that they had peaked, and when you get to 31 .5%, and then there was the press club, and there's been a few things that we've were difficult, so I was fully expecting it.I wasn't necessarily expecting another drop today, because there was one last week with Morgan as well, depending on which polls you're looking at.But I was expecting a bit of a downward trend for a while.But of course, it's a year and a half out.So, you know.

Why do you mention the press club?Was that address that she delivered at the National Press Club in Canberra that had an impact?What was it that she said that caused the problems?Oh, most things.

I don't think it won a vote.It was one of those scenarios where you sort of don't just want to beat people in the election.You want to torture them about it before you go to the election.It's a fundamental thing to understand about voting in the first place, if nothing else, to know who it is that isn't voting.voting for you, who is voting for you, and who you might be able to swing.And you mustn't play to your own cheer squad and kick the people that you hate, because that'll just put off the people in the middle.

I wondered about the monoculture argument from the start, and I said it the day after.I just think it's one of those words, for starters, that most Aussies don't understand.And I said to Kel Richards, who's our wordsmith here on 2GB, Aussie culture they understand.If Pauline Hanson had have said, we want everyone to adopt the Aussie culture,think everyone would understand that when you talk about monoculture most people have to reach for a dictionary.

Yeah I want to look I want them to do well and I'll continue to support them in my own little way but yeah monoculture that wasn't going to ring at all I mean it just it doesn't make any real sense I'm completely against multiculturalism and everything that we've been saying for 30 years about multiculturalism that's wrong with it is is true.I mean, it is a nightmare for social cohesion, formings of tribes, special grants to individual groups to buy their votes.Everything to do with multiculturalism is bad for Australia and people need to understand it's not about being able to go down and get a Vietnamese meal or get something from a Lebanese restaurant.It's not about food.It's not about all the good things.It's about the tribalism and the concept of people who come to Australia and they don't ever really become Australian.

They're like, for example, know, a Pakistani who lives in Australia.They've got Australian citizenship.I mean, look, for example, what happened with Modi the other day, 30 ,000 Indians packed into a stadium.Those people were just being encouraged to not be Australian.They were there with their Prime Minister.How is he their Prime Minister?

They're living here in Australia.Their Prime Minister is Anthony Albanese, God rest his soul.

And even the political experts on the ABC's Insiders program yesterday were acknowledging there are lots of votes in that room for Anthony Albanese.When you have a look at the million plus people originally from India.

That's what it's all about it's all about importing votes and they'll keep doing that for the next five years because as you know as I'd said previously I had been well before these poll changes expecting them to win the 2028 election and I've done a little bit more looking at that in in preparation.

Let's talk about that because you've been doing some research for us on what's going to happen at the next election so can you look into your crystal ball for us?

I can I can I'll just put on that funny hat like Paul Hogan used to wear, the genie stuff or Merlin.look it'ssituation like this where the worst case scenario is the most left -wing government Australia has ever seen.You'll have never seen anything like this before.The Greens, for a start, are the only real sort of clear, staying where they are at 14%, and that's constant.You can expect them, of course, to easily win back their six seats, because they'll get back two that went with payment and Also Thorpe, obviously they'll go.

So the Greens will be back in with a full contingent of 12 senators.

So they'll be stronger.

They will be stronger and they will control the Senate.There's not much question about that looking at the Senate figures.The Liberals will lose a few in the Senate.One Nation will pick up a few in the Senate.But bottom line is that the Greens will be calling the tune in the Senate and Labor will be making deals with them.But the really horrible part that I don't think anybody's really looked at is that we've now got this four way, and I call it a four way because we've got Liberal or Coalition, Labor and One Nation, all in that sort of fairly high two -digit.

scenario with the polls.And then you've, of course, got the Teals, the Greens, other independents.And there's a couple of seats in the House, of course, that are held by independents.There's Wilkie and there's Haynes and there's the fella in Calais.So there's a few of them.So you've got a situation where you've got like a fourth group that aren't going to be across the country, but they're going to impact individual seats and still play a significant role in this oddity of the other three competing in two digits.

it may actually lead to a situation where you finish up with the Albanese government or whoever's running things after 2028, but that government, that Labour government, could be in a situation where they're calling on support to form government from the Greens, who could win some lower house seats, because remember they lost three at the last election, but things are going back their way and Labour's on the nose.Then of course you've got the Teals, they've got a bunch of Greens,a bunch of Teals, a bunch of Independents.By the time Liberal and One Nation take some seats off Labor, you could be in a situation like we had with Gillard, with Oakeshott back in the day.

So you're saying that Anthony Albanese could be dragged even further into loony land than he is now?

Absolutely.Because they've shown, they demonstrated only last week, that they'll do deals with the Greens, which they said they wouldn't.So you picture you get to 2028 and the Teals and the Greens are saying, well, we'll let you form government.

If the other team that could form is a coalition One Nation team, but then again, they're kind of stealing each other's lunch at the moment, aren't they?

I don't think they can form government at all.I think the government at 2028 is either going to be a straight Labor reduced minority, sorry, minority government, sorry, majority government, but reduced from what it is currently, substantially reduced from the 94 seats, probably something into the 70s.But if it gets well below that, then you're looking at five or six teals and there could be some more teals because the way the votes are going and the instability generally in the electorate causes more people to get engaged as a form of independent.So there'll be other people that will come up in the next year and a half that we don't know anything about yet.So that will cause upsets in various seats.So you picture a government that is at the behest of the Greens and the Teals when you've already got the left wing of the Labor Party in charge in the first place.

So as things stand, despite the rise of One Nation, even though they've come off a little bit in recent polls, you can't see them forming government with anyone.

No, because there is simply not going to ultimately be enough seats between the coalition and One Nation for that to happen.The Liberals may actually get back one or two seats, potentially from Teals, because the Teal seats, which are really strong Liberal seats normally, they vote Teal because they feel comfortable about the economy and it's nice to have an independent that's not Labor.They're a bit like that.And you've probably noticed you rarely, if ever, see an independent labor seat.It's always moved in into strong Liberal seats that go independent or go something like the Teals.So there's more and more chance potentially for Liberals under normal circumstances to get those seats back.

But they're so diminished going into this election that that may not work for them.

What advice would you be giving Pauline Hanson?Well, there's too much to say.

The first thing is, of course, understand who's not voting for you and stop kicking them in the guts.Understand who is voting for you and stop playing to them and having them cheer the torture that you're giving to the people you don't like.because the people in the middle see it all and they make the decision.The monocultural thing is an issue.But Ben, I do believe these things can be addressed to a great deal during the course of the next 18 months.It's not all over Red Rover, so to speak.

It's a poll very early in the cycle, but it shows a trend that they need to very strongly address.And the fundamentals I don't see anything that they do that shows that they understand the fundamentals of how this campaign should be operated.The only campaign that's ever been anything like this was the 1998 state election in Queensland, which was also a four -way contest of independence, coalition, which was split into two parties then, National and Liberal, and One Nation and Labor.

We'll be leaning on you for your analysis in the lead up to that next election, and I think Anthony Albanese would be waking up and Thanking his lucky stars despite all of the dramas, the broken promises, the new taxes, he's still getting away with it.

And be afraid, be very afraid, because the scenario of a Greens lead or a Greens organised government with Greens and Teals, think of that loony left involvement.I mean, imagine Maureen Faruqi as the Minister for Immigration, for example.Now, it might not get to the point where they actually get ministries, but they'll be calling the shots on a whole range of things because a lot of the left of the Labor Party agree with a lot of the Greens stuff anyway.So the taxes that they think they now couldn't get away with are all then on the table.In between time, of course, they'll have between now and 2028, and then once they win in 2028, between then and 2031, to stack the country with more imported votes and fast track citizenship.So think about things like, I believe there'll be a GST increase to begin with.

And I think right at the end, what we'll see is a capital gains tax threshold removed from houses from your own home.I think that'll go, amongst other things.And of course, I think there'll also be an infrastructure tax on business, because this is the sort of thing that Labor does.Oh, you're going to build something to make more money.We'll tax you on that.Mining tax we'll be back on.

They will hit everywhere that they can get money.They'll do it because they're going to keep Running out of money.

I know that you share your thoughts on social media for people who want to follow you and your opinions online How do they find you on Instagram at voice for Australia voice for Australia David Oldfield good to catch up and thanks for dropping by you Ben You take you will be talking to David regularly considering his experience with One Nation