FIM DE KHAMENEI E GUERRA NO ORIENTE MÉDIO I Professor HOC

What's up guys, and now? Can you hear me? Yes? No? The first thing has to be if you are listening to me I'm waiting there, everyone listening to me, it's working perfectly. Now we can talk about what matters, which is perhaps one of the most important wars of this century. A gigantic historical event.

What does Iran represent? And these changes are not small. Well, the attack happened yesterday, Israel and the United States together attacked Iran. We were waiting for this for a few weeks, talking about it, I already talked about it in the previous weeks, in the last few days too. is consequences and we are in a different conflict. This is not a punctual attack, two days, a bombing, it is not a single thing that will happen and stop. It is a bigger conflict that should lead to the fall of the regime.

To bring down the regime is not simple, I will talk about this during the conversation, during the live today. But it's what's at stake, not only because of Trump's statement, but also because of Iran's stance and all the activity, the amount and the American military mobilization in the region. And now, with the attacks reaching other countries, there will be political pressure to do something. There will be legitimacy, a justification by the United States to go further, to go deeper, until you achieve your goal.

Well, let me just give some basic messages here, and then we'll dive into everything that's happening. First of all, whoever wants to ask a question is at Rock Academy, I'll just answer the questions from the people at Rock Academy, so if you're at Rock Academy, ask a question, if not, take a look, download my Rock Academy app, it's on Google, Apple, and you'll have access to a lot of courses, a lot of things. And then we have a partner and a new sponsor for this live.

Actually, it's a release of something you'll like a lot. It has a lot to do with little bit what I'm talking about. And there are also special promotions for you to get to know and understand. So, I'm going to show you a little bit of the process of creating a website. I'm going to show you a little bit of the process of creating a website. I'm going to show you a little promotions for you to know and understand. Well, let's start from the beginning.

I was saying that this is a historical event, because it involves the fall and overthrow of an Iranian regime. An Iranian regime that came to power, the Islamic revolution in 1979. So it's been many years taking an ideology, a model, a type of policy to the Middle East.

This compared or implemented in a country as gigantic as Iran, 92 million inhabitants. It's a huge country. It's a millenary civilization, an ancient empire. Iran is not Iraq. It's not a smaller country.

It's not Syria. We're talking about a another dimension of things. Not only that, Iran, over the last years, has been able to occupy a space in the region that maybe no other country has occupied. We have not seen a regional rise as strong as Iran. So, destabilizing, taking down, changing the regime, ending the Iranian project in the region is a drastic change

and opens a series of opportunities and also a series of risks. I will talk about all of them, the opportunities and the risks. Let's focus here on the attack. And obviously, the attack was born with some objectives. These objectives were set by Trump's statement after the attacks began.

And Trump has already brought that the first objective is to prevent Iran from having an atomic bomb. But, Rock, the United States had not yet obliterated, this is the word Trump used to describe the damage. The damage was certainly done. The Iranian nuclear facilities were damaged and affected. But we have no absolute certainty that the Iranian nuclear program was obliterated. And let's assume, let's give the benefit of the doubt to Trump and believe that yes, it was destroyed.

Well, you destroy the program and you start to rebuild it again. Ah, will it be rebuilt the same way? No, maybe not. It will take longer because you lost equipment, you lost centrifuges, you lost a lot of things. The fact is that, whether it's true or not, or whether Trump was successful in last year's attack or not,

Iran will always be able to continue building. A consensus of everyone is that after being attacked, this didn't make Iran demotivate to have an atomic bomb. On the contrary, Iran was absolutely sure that it would have to have an atomic bomb. Which is a logical reasoning. If you are looking for a nuclear program, you are trying to have the bomb, then you are attacked. But the attack is not a devastating attack that destroys the regime, that destroys everything.

It is an attack that destroys some nuclear facilities. What do you deduce? Well, I'm not at risk of life. The Iranian regime, the leaders, think, well, what are they going to do against us? Attack our facilities again? More than ever, we need an atomic bomb.

So, the attack of last year, the American and Israeli one, it didn't change the rational, the logic, the Iranian objective of having an atomic bomb. That's why Iran will continue, and it continued, and it continues to pursue this objective. Which is within the logic of the Iranian project since always. Why would Iran suddenly change its mind? Oh, no, Iran can change its mind if the United States ends all sanctions, if the world embraces Iran.

Maybe if it wasn't for this regime. There are some conditions that we can imagine this happening. The fact is that in this context, with this regime in power, with the kind of attack that was made, with the time they are already spending to build this nuclear program, the attack of last year, in the middle of last year, is not enough to make Iran give up.

So, even if the attack was well succeeded operationally, Iran went back to work for his atomic bomb. And this time, according to Trump, the goal is to prevent this from happening in the future. To prevent this from happening, the only real, solid way to be sure that this will work is by overthrowing the regime. And then we move on to the second goal declared by Trump. I'm discussing here with you what the American goals are.

What is the United States going to do in Iran? What does it want to do? And why does it want to do these things? Well, the second goal is to overthrow the regime. Overthrowing the regime solves a series of problems. Why? Because the Iranian regime is a rival, an adversary.

The Iranian regime finances a lot of terrorism. The Iranian regime has a lot of militias. The axis of the resistance is weakened after everything Israel did. After the attack on Hamas on October 7th. Israel won many victories against Hezbollah, the regime in Syria fell, the Houthis were also badly damaged, the militias in Iraq weakened, Iran was on the rear, having to deal with problems in their own country, against direct attacks against their facilities,

murders and deaths against their leaders. Iran stopped paying attention to these other allies and focused more on that. But Iran managed to create a network of influence with tentacles in several places. In addition, Iran is part of the group of countries that I call the axis of the dictatorships, which are Russia, China, North Korea, Iran. Venezuela is disconnecting, disconnecting from this axis,

because with the American intervention, with the capture of Maduro, the regime in Venezuela hasn't changed, but the pressure and the American presence around Venezuela and the pressure and the withdrawal of Maduro are making the government in Venezuela recalculate its relationship with these other countries.

Including the US pressure so that Venezuela moves away from all of them. But Iran is not. It is still close to Russia, China and North Korea. Of course, I have already explained this to you on a smaller scale. On a smaller scale because last year we didn't see Russia, China or North Korea going to save Iran from the American-Israeli attack.

And today, or from now on, we won't see that either. We have to radically change something in the world for that to happen. But still, is still part of this group of countries that want to redesign the international order. They are revisionist, dictatorial countries that have common goals and have helped each other in different degrees. At the time of the Let's see, it's another story, as it is becoming clear, as it became clear with Venezuela,

first it became clear with Iran, then with Venezuela, and now it will be clear again with Iran. But anyway, so, taking the regime out helps the United States to deal with an enemy that can completely transform itself. I have said this in other scenarios. If Xi Jinping dies today, or if Putin dies, or if there is a coup in Russia, probably the war in Ukraine will be interrupted, there will be no continuity. China's deadlines with Taiwan would also probably change if Xi Jinping is no longer in power. And the same thing happens with Iran.

Since the Yatolas and this regime are not in power, and I say Yatolas, I'm not just saying the clergy, not just the religious, but the Revolutionary Guard too. And that's another point that I'll talk about in a little while. But the fact is that Iran, without this regime in power, it will be a different Iran.

It will have to start over. It will have to deal with real problems. It will have to achieve the legitimacy of his population, the legitimacy in relation to the world. This means a more fragilized bargaining position, and he will have to please the rest of the world,

please his population, and this will demand that he forget, put aside ambitious expansionist projects of power, or to dominate the country, to repress the population. A new regime, a new government in Iran will have to start again differently. Even if it is not exactly the most more smooth it will be.

On a smaller scale, we are seeing this in Venezuela. The regime in Venezuela, which is in power, Rodríguez, is willing to negotiate things that the previous regime was not. Why? Because the bargaining position has changed. Without the Yatolas and the Revolutionary Guard in power, everything will change within Iran.

So, this is part of the American objective. The third American objective, the first is to prevent Iran from having an atomic bomb, the second is to bring down the regime, and the third is to destroy the ballistic missiles and Iran's ability to build it.

Ballistic missiles are also a project closely associated with the atomic bomb and closely connected to the regime. Once you solve the regime, you also solve this problem, this project. So the United States will destroy nuclear facilities, will destroy, try, right to destroy Iranian missile stocks, and finally, do everything to shake the regime so that it falls.

How do we know that the United States really wants this? Not only Trump's speech, but other Trump's comments indicate that this is a very firm goal, very solid, because he called the Iranian population to go to the streets, he called the Iranian population to fight for their freedom.

As I said on Instagram, on Reels recently, he didn't send the population out to protest now, he sent the population to protect themselves because now it's time for the attack, now things are going to catch fire. He said, many bombs are going to fall, protect yourself, go to their shelters, and then it's your chance to fight. And the United States will be with you. But in the first attack that happened last year, in the middle of the year, when Israel attacked and the United States came together afterwards,

everyone thought they could bring down the regime. There's no way you can bring down a regime from the outside, just from the outside. External air attacks don't bring down a regime. You need to have an internal mobilization, an internal reaction, be it a militia, be it a group, be it a part of the army, be it the people, I don't know. And this was missing in the attack of last year, in the middle of last year.

And then, we watched now at the beginning of the year, many protests and a violent repression of the Iranian regime. And now, this was perhaps another trigger that encouraged Trump and the United States to say, we can complement this situation by attacking Iran, because now the political situation is different. People are willing to protest and fight against the regime. Of course there was a massacre there, many people died, and the protests declined, they retreated.

And it was precisely when they retreated that the American military operation came. So things are more or less married, they are part of the same situation, right? Anyway, these subjects are connected. Guys, make a parenthesis, like the video here, right? And there must be a lot of people who are watching the live, who don't follow the channel. So it's time for you to follow, enjoy and follow the channel.

So these are the three American goals. I don't even want to get into this discussion, the United States can or can't do this. I think I've talked so much about this subject in Venezuela, I'll come back later if you want, but this is a discussion, I understand,

that is totally translocated, given the context and reality of the world we live in today. Nobody, nobody, not the United States, not Russia, not China, not Venezuela, not Iran, not China, it's not Venezuela, it's not Iran, it's not Israel. No one in the world is obeying anything.

No one.

It's simply Rwanda invading the Congo. It's Azerbaijan attacking Armenia. The world hasn't worked or operated within these rules for a long time. If it ever did, and I've talked about this many times, international law is very fragile, and in moments of instability, competition, rivalry,

it becomes even more fragile. In moments of transition of international order, which is what we are starting to live, for some time now, some years, but we are getting closer and closer to this possible transition. In other words, a great war, a great world conflict.

These international order transitions do not happen in peace, they happen with chaos, disorder, collapse, war, pandemic, economic breakdowns. So we are getting close to that moment. It is obvious that international law will not work. It was already there, this is not a current discussion, it doesn't fit, there is no context, we have already passed this point. And I repeat, we have not passed this point because the United States does what it wants, or Russia does what it wants, or China does what it wants. Everyone is doing what they want.

So we have to deal with this reality. Well, I want to talk now about the response, the first of the attacks, what were the initial targets. One of the first targets was the palace, the official residence of the Supreme Leader of the Iatola. This is an attack of decapitation,

an attack to cut off the head of the regime. In this case, it's the Yatolah. There are several rumors circulating that he was hit, that he was killed. We don't have this official confirmation. There are rumors that come from Israel, from the other attack Israel made with the United States.

We also had rumors about the death of officers. It took a while to consolidate. Israel had already said, some of these sources had already come from Israel and said that this had already happened and it materialized.

So we can't rule out that this has already happened, but I don't think that's the most important thing. Why do I say this? First, because Yatola is in a situation at the end of his life. He's 86 years old, weak, everyone was worried, there was a lot of talk about the transition, who would be the next Supreme Leader. So, of course, he has power, but it's not him, his figure is symbolic, it's very important,

don't get me wrong, it's very important, if he really had been eliminated, it would have been a huge blow to the regime, but it doesn't consolidate or determine the end of the Iranian regime. Why? Because the Revolutionary Guard is the armed tentacle, the strength, the pillar of support for a leader who is 86 years old, isolated,

with a weak health. All of this takes away his ability to exercise this power. There are many other figures who are exercising this power. There will be a symbolic upheaval, and this will motivate, for example, the population to understand and think that the time to end this project of the Islamic revolution has come.

In this sense, it has a very big impact. In the practical sense, for me, it is not the most relevant. The most relevant is for us to start seeing deaths or attacks and problems against the Revolutionary Guard. And there is another news that the Minister of Defense and the head, the leader of the Revolutionary Guard would have been eliminated as well. If confirmed, I think this information, this news, is very relevant for us to measure the level of regime support.

And here we are thinking about when the regime will fall, what needs to happen for the regime to fall. The regime is made up of a lot of people, but a lot, a lot. I'm talking about millions of people, literally. Will it be possible to eliminate, kill millions of people? No. That doesn't have to happen.

But all the heads, if the great leaders are all eliminated, the ability to coordinate this regime, the ability to command the rest of the hierarchy, begins to be weakened. And then there is room for the regime to fall. But at this moment, you have to have an organized group.

And who will emerge in this group? A totally outside figure cannot emerge. Remember that there is no opposition, there is nothing organized within Iran. There are dissatisfied people. Now the institutions, the police, the intelligence service, the Revolutionary Guard, the army, the judiciary,

everyone who is there is co-opted. Some of them would have to desert, the best ones would have to take the lead and say, let's solve everything. I don't know, it's not a very solid, very simple way out, it's not a very stable path. Of course, there is the discussion of an external figure.

Shah, the one who prays the word, who was the monarch, the heir to the throne, who doesn't live in Iran, is a figure whose name appeared in certain protests during the last months of protest, but he is not someone unanimous.

He doesn't have an internal network. Even if he arrives in the country, how does he consolidate, guarantee himself in power? He needs to have a large popular mobilization that gives legitimacy to this movement so that the other figures,

which are authorities, who have weapons, this is a fundamental point of this story, are on the side of an orderly transition. But, anyway, there is a lot to happen for us to go deeper and get to this discussion. This is a bigger discussion, a discussion about what Iran's future will be like.

We need to understand how the war will unfold. What is becoming clear is that unless there is a regime collapse, the war should not be such a short episode. It's not a one-off attack of one or two days and it's over. If the United States came back, mobilized all this, if Israel joined together, if all these countries on the side were attacked, now is the time once and for all to solve the problem. You can't start this problem, it can happen.

Trump changes his mind, you know, at any time. But it doesn't make sense from an operational, logical, strategic, you have mobilized all this, caused all this, arrived here and now do not finish the service, do not finish the objective, do not finish what you came to do. Of course, not necessarily, as I was saying, you can do this only with air attacks. But I think we're heading to war, taking another course, because of Iran's behavior and the way Iran reacted. Iran has shown that it's willing to climb, and it's climbing. And the next step in the climb, which is the most worrying

for the world in general, is the issue is the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world's oil passes. We're talking about a lot of things there. I think it would be nice to put the map here for me to show you. Guys, don't forget to like the video and follow the channel who doesn't follow I need to go back to I'm asking you guys in the poll if you think Ormuz Strait will be closed or not. I want to know your opinion. I posted some videos on Instagram and you must have watched these videos.

There is a video that is an explosion at the American base in Bahrain, which is the base where the 5th American fleet is. It is a mega base, it is located here in Bahrain. Qatar was also attacked, the Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. So, there are several countries attacked. This is the Strait of Hormuz, 1 fifth of the world's oil passes through here. Why does oil pass through here? Simply because you have all these producers, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait,

and Iraq. So the oil goes out, sails here and has to cross there. We are talking about around 18 million barris. So, you don't need to... Here, put this one so everyone can see the map.

That's it.

There are 18 million barris that will pass through the strait. And the strait, look, is this piece here. So you can close it. You don't need to make a blockade and forbid it. When I say close, when everyone says close, it's not forbidding this. You start making attacks, small boats, boats, attacking boats that are passing by. Ready, no more boat will try to pass.

The cost of the navigation insurance in the middle of missiles hitting hotels. Hotel in the Emirates, Arabs in Dubai were hit in Qatar, Bahrain. You have Iranian attacks against civilian targets. Imagine the ships, which is where they really have leverage. So Iran needs to do a few operations here to close. And of course, this will cause the United States to react even more,

because it is not in the American interest that the price of oil rises too much. It will rise, because the fear is how long it will take to reopen, how long it will be safe. One of the things Trump said is that he will destroy the Iranian Navy. Clearly, the goal of destroying the Navy is to prevent Iran from continuing to threaten this.

So we're going to have a lot of confrontation here at sea. This will interdict, it will hinder the oil flow. This will cause some uproar in the price. The point is that this is a measure, it is not definitive. Bastu Iran will come and say, no, I stopped, I stopped trying to close, I stopped attacking. And then things go back to normal. So here we can see that it is an action that can be withdrawn at any

time. Of course, perhaps the ships will not start sailing the next day just because Iran said it would have to have some guarantee, some confidence that this is safe. But the idea is that this Iranian retaliation is not the worst of all, from the point of view of the economic impact on oil.

It's not.

There are some scenarios worse than these for the price of the barrel of oil, than the closure. Imagine if Iran decided to destroy and attack oil and energy facilities in all these countries. Because for now, it has launched missiles in hotels. And if it decides to explode refineries in the Emirates, Kuwait in Saudi Arabia, in Iraq, if they decide to do this, then the destruction is much greater, because you exploded, you will have to rebuild, it will take much longer, all this will

create a bigger problem. So, anyway, let's go back here, I want to show you that Oman, a place that was not attacked by Iran, was Oman, which is this country that is here at the exit of the Persian Gulf. And Oman was not attacked because it has a neutral position. It was even the one who was mediating the talks, the negotiations between Iran and the United States. So, Oman is intact. These other countries, besides having American bases, and this is an important question, why is Iran attacking these other countries? There are two reasons.

The first is that these countries have bases, are allies of the United States, a way to retaliate is is attacking them. And supposedly he should attack only the American bases and not other things. But of course it's war, so not everything is controlled and we don't even know if this is on purpose. If the attacks really on other countries like the Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, are purposeful attacks, Iran is doing this to create panic and force these countries to put pressure on the United States

so that the war does not continue. They will put pressure on us and say, look, the US will stop because they are attacking us, they will destroy our economy, our country. That's crazy. I'm not part of this war. And we have to remember that when Trump threatened

to make this first offensive a few months ago, or two months, one month ago, the Gulf Arab countries were all against it and said, you can't use our bases, our territory to make these attacks. For Iran, this distinction does not exist. Oh no, you have an American base there, but you didn't let the plane take off from your base,

you didn't let the plane take off from Qatar base. You didn't let the plane take off from Qatar. Qatar, by chance, is the headquarters of the Central American Command. So, the headquarters of the 5th American Fleet is in Bahrain. And Qatar is the headquarters of the Central Command, which is one of the divisions of the American Command that divides the world into several commands, areas or territories. And the Central Command, which takes care of the Middle East,

is based in Qatar. This means that for Iran it doesn't make a difference, oh no, they didn't let the plane take off from Bahrain, the missile wasn't launched from Bahrain against my country, my territory. For Iran, it's enough to have the base

and to be an ally, which is already enough. And this can make the Arab countries put pressure on them to end the conflict, but it can also force them to take sides and this time get out of the wall and say, look, no, you have a base here, but you can't use the base, I'm going to participate in the war. Saudi Arabia, all of them, may really want to enter. They didn't make this explicit decision on time,

but it may be that they already decide to allow direct attacks from the countries here. Many of the American planes this time stayed in Israel, it is not so close to Iran and stayed in Israel because these countries here did not allow the attacks to come from here. Another place that has an American base is Jordan, Syria also has an American presence, so none of them accepted. And now they will have to make a decision, we will watch this in the next few hours, this is part of the discussion of how it will happen and how...

I'm hearing some other... Yeah, Iran says that it killed 201 people so far. Well, we are in this impasse here, to understand how Iran will continue to retaliate. I also commented on my short video that I put here on YouTube, on Shorts and on Reels on Instagram, that Iran used around 500 missiles, drones against Israel in the war in the middle of last year. And now he has reestablished his stocks, he has thousands of missiles and drones. So he has the capacity and ammunition to take this retaliation for longer, much longer.

The fact here is that now he needs to decide what he will do. The more Iran continues to escalate, the greater will be the justification and the need for the United States to also resolve this situation once and for all and escalate in the same way. Before the war, there was a discussion about whether Iran wanted to make an agreement with the Americans. And my reading was that Iran, deep down, didn't want an agreement.

It wanted war. Why? because he simply didn't believe that the United States had good faith in the will to make an agreement, and, in the end, the demands that the Americans would make for Iran at that time of negotiation were maximalist demands. That is, I want zero enrichment, this was an American requirement, zero enrichment for Iran. Iran, I will not give zero enrichment, I want to be able to enrich, in the Iranian argument,

for peaceful and civil purposes, to generate energy, but I want to enrich. This is a right of mine and I don't want to give up. The United States would say, we don't trust you, you have a hidden nuclear program, you can't enrich. You can't enrich anything.

So, there wasn't much space, the Iranian bargaining position was very bad. And the United States would want very solid verification mechanisms. And Iran knew it wouldn't be able to deliver these mechanisms, because, deep down, Iran has another goal, which is, yes, to have an atomic bomb. So, for Iran, the war, it might have brought a better situation.

Why better? In the sense of having the Arab countries, for example, saying, I don't want war, my airspace is closed. Or how much the economies of the Gulf countries today are big hubs of logistics, of transport. The largest airlines in the world are all located here. We are talking about Emirates, Qatar, Errad, all these companies, they start from all over

the world from these countries. So they are great points of connection with the planet. They are logistical points too, you have financial areas. You transformed, the Gulf countries have transformed into cosmopolitan poles of connection between the West and the East, precisely because they are placed kind of in the middle, depending on the angle or point of view,

where we look at the world. And the economy of these countries will stop. The Middle East is stopped now. The flights are canceled, people are afraid. I received several messages here from a lot of people who are in the region, Brazilians who are in Qatar, who are in the Emirates.

A lot of people sending me messages, sending me videos, telling me things, asking me with fear what I do, where I go, if I go to Oman, there are all kinds of situations of people there. So you can imagine the effect that this has on these countries. And Iran is saying that they put pressure. And if there is a ceasefire,

Iran's bargaining position improves. So, there is a place, or a logic, that Iran understands that war makes sense. And, clearly, both understood that, and that's why we're here. And that became clearer now, right? For me, at least, it's evident.

Iran really wanted war too. Given the response Iran is having, it's a sign. Why do I say this? Because we can compare it to the other American and Israeli military actions. When Trump in his first term killed Soleimani, who was the leader of the Revolutionary Guard, he simply... How did Iran retaliate?

Iran went there and threw a telegraphed missile, combined, at a base, warning... This was not a real retaliation. For what? To give a save face, turn and say, Look, it's okay, a glorious exit, I've already retaliated, but look how my retaliation was,

I don't want to continue. This happened several times between Israel and Iran. Last year, in the beginning, in the middle of the year, the other year, all the confrontations that we've seen in the last two years, after the attack of Hamas, October 7, between Israel and Iran, the downhill, the ramp of descent of the downhill was like this. It was exactly the two there acting that way,

the two sides signaling that they wanted to end the conflict. How do you signal that? You don't scale it, you just make a symbolic attack, a choreographed attack, you send a message. You don't attack 10, 5, 6 other countries. You don't do that. And that's what Iran is doing. So, it's clear that Iran was also betting that a conflict would be better for it.

There's another thing that Iran is also bets on, which is very interesting, few people talk about it. The reading of the Iranian regime was that in the war of last year, in the middle of the year, the population did not turn against the regime. And it is plausible that this happens, right? Sometimes when you have an external enemy, people

unite. This is common, because the external enemy is different, it is not Iranian. Ah, the regime is terrible for us Iranians, but we are still Iranians. Against whom? Against the Israelis, against the Americans. So, here in Brazil we are fighting. But if Argentina starts attacking Brazil, well, we leave our fight aside and unite. And this is a bit of what Iran bets. That a greater war against Israel and the United States will make the population unite in favor of the Iranian identity,

of the Iranian nation, of the country against the external enemy. So, in the Iranian logic, the war makes sense. And of course, in the Israeli and American logic, too. So, this is not a war simply of reaction, defense or problem, but maybe a war of veiled consensus. Both sides want to fight,

they wanted to fight, they think that war is the best way to deal with the problems that are put on the table, it's not that they want to fight, they wanted to fight, they think that war is the best way to deal with the problems that are on the table. It's not that they want to fight for sport, they want to fight because they have problems, threats, it is clear that Iran also wanted to do this. There are a lot of people who are arriving later. We have 25,000 people live. Like this live video. We're talking about what's happening now. It's one of the most important conflicts of this century.

It can change the Middle East a lot. This whole story is very relevant. And it's a continuation of a process that we have been witnessing in recent years. First, Iran consolidating itself as a regional superpower, with a very expansionist project, with a success rate. Iran left, it was there contained, and then it conquers or dominates or starts to influence totally what happens in Iraq after the American invasion. How does this happen?

He starts to influence Iraq after the American invasion in the second war of Iraq in 2003. Because with Saddam Hussein's downfall, most of Iraq's population is Shiite. But Saddam Hussein was Sunni. So, imagine, Iraq's ethnic composition was reversed. A minority dominated the majority, and the majority is Shiite. But the Iranians are Shiite.

So, Iran always had a problem. It couldn't influence a country that was dominated by an anti-Iran minority. Because, remember, we had a war, almost 10 years of war, between Iraq and Iran. Saddam Hussein against Iran, in the 1980s. And this had an impact on Iraq.

When the Americans overthrew Saddam Hussein, then the majority of the population becomes Shiite. And if they are Shiite, they naturally align with Iran. So Iran, after 2003, gains new territory. I've already explained this to you on several occasions, for those who watched the video here on the channel, which is Iran's geopolitics. If you haven't watched it, you have to watch it.

After the live, you have to watch this video. Iran's geopolitics. There's Israel's geopolitics too. Two very important videos for you to understand the region. There's also is also geopolitics of Turkey, three very relevant countries. In Iran's geopolitics, I explain that historically the Persian

empire, the Persian civilization, only becomes an empire when they conquer and dominate a territory adjacent to his, which is Mesopotamia, which is Iraq. Why? Iran is a great mountain, a mountainous fortress, so this gave protection throughout history to Iran, but it also prevents them from leaving the fortress to project power out. How did Iran manage to become an empire if it is imprisoned inside its own fortress?

It needs to conquer this territory. Which one? Mesopotamia. This is a military launch platform, a projection platform, an extension of Iranian territory for it to project power in the rest of the region. If he doesn't have the presence, access, control,

tranquility with Iraq, he can't do it well. When Saddam Hussein is overthrown, what happens? Iran starts to have this territory available. And then he creates a terrestrial connection

between Syria and its country. Syria already had a proximity with Iran, Bashar al-Assad's regime was already close to Iran, but then it gains even more proximity. And if you have a terrestrial, a land connection that connects Iran, Iraq, Syria,

you can get to Lebanon, where Hezbollah is, which is also a militia, a Shiite terrorist group. So, see, Iran reaches a peak of power, and this power goes even further. Why? Because it creates another group here in Yemen, down here. And this group is located at the exit of the Red Sea, in the Horn of Africa, and the Red Sea connects with the Suez Canal. In addition, Iran can also have an influence over Hamas. Hamas is already inside Israel.

Iran has reached an unimaginable regional geopolitical, unimaginable. And then it is so big, so strong, that it starts to move more boldly. And the big movement, or that triggers this overthrow of Iran, this process of tightening that Iran is going through, comes with the attack of Hamas against Israel. Then Israel is surprised and needs to react. When Israel reacts, the reaction doesn't come only against Hamas,

it comes against the Iranian project. Because the Iranian project was very successful. And then the whole story starts to turn in a different way. Because Israel starts to get results against Hamas, explodes Hezbollah literally with the Pagers in Lebanon, and attacks.

And by the way, yesterday Israel did some operations here in southern Lebanon attacking Hezbollah positions to prevent or signal to Hezbollah, don't get involved in the war, don't defend your boss, Iran, because you will suffer even more casualties. So Israel wins against Hamas, against Hezbollah, the regime in Syria falls, Israel also gets a more advantageous position here. Israel starts for the first time a direct confrontation against Iran. Direct attacks against Iran. We saw these confrontations last year and the year before.

And then Iran starts to be shaken up. And it becomes clear that Iran is in a weaker position. And with that, Trump looks at the scenario and his victories in foreign policy, he is winning several victories. The first of them was against Hamas, or in favor of Israel. Making Hamas hand over the hostages and manage to put out the fire. And an ambitious project to change Gaza, this is a more complicated discussion.

But the fact is that Trump achieved an unimaginable victory, unthinkable, against Hamas. And he did it because he put pressure on all Arab countries, created a great coalition, brought Turkey, brought Qatar, brought everyone, pressured everyone, pressured everyone, pressured Israel too, and said, look, it has to end. And then things got lost, the focus is no longer on Gaza, and the siege was closing, and then came the Israeli attack.

When the Israeli attack is successful, Israel manages to eliminate a number of figures from the regime's high-level, and is perhaps ready to bring down the regime, Trump says, no, not bring down the regime, calm down. He didn't let Israel bring down the regime, but he joined the attack. And when Trump enters this attack,

it's an attack that the ground was already prepared for. Trump only comes with his more sophisticated bombers, and throws some bombs. And he comes back. It's over. So, a clean, safe attack and the United States participates.

So, another victory. And then, the operation we watched at the beginning of this year, which is the capture of Maduro, which is much more miraculous, much more daring and well-succeeded again. So in Trump's head, Iran is weak, Iran is on the ropes, it's screwed, it's better to solve this problem once and for all. I've already done three other very successful international movements, why not?

So Trump has a conviction and maybe it will work. Of course, the operation is more ambitious, it is bigger, it has two aircraft carriers. One of them is here, which is Gerald Ford, which is the largest aircraft carrier in the world. I commented with you, I posted here saying that Gerald Ford has a problem with the toilets. There are 650 toilets inside the aircraft carrier. It is the largest and most expensive aircraft carrier in the world.

It cost 13 billion dollars to be built. And there are 650 toilets around it. And there are around 5,000 soldiers. And the system of these bathrooms is a vacuum system that was brought from tourist cruises, which is a modern technological system and that was for the first time implemented in a military vessel.

It is the most modern one that exists, of all. But it needs maintenance and of course a cruiser is not like a aircraft carrier, a war machine like that. And American aircraft carriers have an operation deadline. They are sent for missions and combat in the high seas for six months. And this is the necessary time for you to do maintenance on the machine, on the equipment, on the aircraft carrier,

and for the people who are living in there. And the operation in Venezuela lasted more than six months. This aircraft carrier has been operating for 8 months, and now that it came here, it is on this side, and the fact that it is here, more distant, is because it is operating in the rear, as a defense platform. Who? All Arab countries, and especially Israel. So, it's positioned here. That is, if Iran tries to attack,

Israel is almost attacking an American aircraft carrier. And also, the aircraft carrier is a war machine with an immense combat capacity. So, this capacity is stationed on the side of Israel to help defend Israel, to help defend the airspace of Israel from Iranian attacks. Because in the last war, a good part of the batteries,

of the missiles that protect Israel with its system, with its defense shield, was exhausted, or was diminished. The Americans sent more, but we don't know how long the war will last. Maybe it won't. So the best option, or an option to guarantee security, was to park the Ford here, the aircraft carrier here.

This one that has a problem in the bathroom. And the bathroom story is to show you that this aircraft carrier, the sailors are exhausted. Probably now that this war has started, it is being said that this aircraft carrier will stay in operation for 11 months. This would be the record of the American Navy in a high-sea operation. Of course, there are a lot of people in there who are dissatisfied, who are tired, and this hinders the ability of the operation. When the Americans attacked Yemen, here, the Houthis,

there was another American aircraft carrier that had been in operation for 8 months, the Truman. And the Americans lost the fighters in this operation. And a thorough analysis was made of why these planes were lost, shot down, came from the high intensity and fatigue of the operations.

So, a carrier plane that has been operating for so long, brings problems. For this reason, probably, that Ford is probably in the rear, not in the front. The front line is here with Lincoln. It's parked here, in the Indy. So, you have this first one to attack.

And of course, you have several other American ships here. You have submarines, you have all the here, you have submarines, you have all the American bases that you have in the Arab Emirates, in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, even Turkey.

And there's also the island, Diego Garcia, which is around here. I won't be able to identify her because she's too small. But it's an island where the planes land, the big American bombers. So, the United States brought a large contingent,

two aircraft carriers parked for this operation. This happened after the October 7th attack. In the Gulf War, in 2003, that I explained to you, for you to have an idea, which was the biggest mobilization, but then there was a terrestrial military intervention, boots on the ground, soldiers invaded Iraq, then the United States had sent five aircraft carriers, but the number of aircraft that are for this war at the moment is very substantial, it is the largest in decades, perhaps even comparable in some size to what happened in

2003. In terms of aircraft carriers, no, five against two, of course, the United States doesn't even have 5 aircraft carriers operating normally. The United States has a total of 11 aircraft carriers. And simultaneously in operation in the world, deployed, there are 3. What happens to the other 8? They are in maintenance, they are going through training. People, the military, need to train constantly.

And these machines need to go through maintenance. A curiosity, the vacuum problem in the bathroom, which breaks one of the bathrooms, and then all the bathrooms in that section and region, because they are interconnected to this vacuum system, break too.

So the maintenance team of the aircraft carrier seems to be working 19, 20 hours a day trying to fix the bathrooms all the time. The ideal system to deal with this is a cleaning system with chemicals that are thrown in the pipe. But this costs $400,000

and can only be done when the aircraft carrier is at its base. That's why maintenance is necessary. This is a curiosity here of the operation.

Hi?

Bibi, yeah. Well, Netenharrow just came out here to the news saying that... Netanyahu came to public and said that we have signs that Ramanay is no longer, or is not alive. This is not a confirmation of his death, but if Netanyahu is saying this, it is because the Supreme Leader probably really died, was eliminated.

This has an immense importance, as I told you, because it is the symbol of the Iranian theocracy. It is the symbol of the Islamic revolution. Since the revolution was implemented in 1979, we only had two supreme leaders, two hiatolas, Khomeini and Khamenei.

So, it's just these two. And if he was killed in the advanced city, we are getting close to the end of the Iranian regime. Of course, what I said, this does not mean that the regime has fallen, because even in recent years, the Iranian regime is no longer a theocratic regime

to become a military dictatorship. Over the years, for Khamenei to consolidate in power, he began to exchange access and power with the Revolutionary Guard. He began to distrust all his partners and leaders, so much so that several other religious leaders of the clergy are arrested, monitored, watched, and forbidden to speak in public, and a number of other things.

So there is a consolidation of power around a single religious figure. Of course, he has his religious police, he has a number of things, the religious ideology is still present, but this is only possible because he has joined, allied himself with the military of the Revolutionary Guard, not the army. Iran has two military forces.

It has an army, but with a weak, weak army, and the Revolutionary Guard. And the name itself says it all. Why do they have these two military forces? Because the Revolutionary Guard is The name says it all. Why do we have these two military forces? Because the Revolutionary Guard is not there to protect the country, it is there to protect the revolution, the regime.

So, it is a military security force stronger than the army. And it is like that because it wants to protect the regime, she was born with this function. So, Iran is not so much a theocracy, it is a theocracy on paper, but the power group that controls the economy,

that controls the nuclear program, even the illicit activities within the country, is the Revolutionary Guard. In Iran, alcohol consumption is prohibited. Who sells the alcohol that is smuggled, the prohibited alcohol? The Revolutionary Guard.

The Revolutionary Guard prohibits and profits in the normal, formal economy, in the oil industry, in other normal activities, in construction, but it also profits in the illegal economy, in the oil industry or in other normal activities, in construction, but it also profits from the illegal economy, from the informal economy. So, it has an economic domain,

a domain of the use of force. It is a central figure in this story. Many leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, important figures, have to be eliminated so that the rest of the soldiers can look and say, well, it's no use resisting, we better have immunity, which is another point.

Trump offered total immunity to those who delivered the weapons. In other words, you will not be condemned, arrested, guilty for everything you've done since 1979, to this day, those who are still alive, of course, but everyone who participated in this regime. Well, guys, I want to take a break here.

What?

Like it before, like it here in the video and follow the channel. You already follow, you don't follow, I want to take a break to talk now about our new partner and I told you that it's a novelty and it's a very interesting thing, it's very ahead, right? That few countries in the world are experimenting, dealing with this type of technology, and now it has arrived in Brazil. This partner, our new partner, we are making a launch here, it is not fully operational, but I will invite you to sign up, to know.

I'm talking about a platform of a forecast market. It's called VoxFi. And VoxFi is a forecast market. Forecast markets in English are the prediction markets. Maybe you've heard of it. They are markets where you can market, negotiate contracts about events of what is happening in the world.

I asked you here, in the live, if you think that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed or not, this kind of thing. Did you have a hunch? Did you think that Israel and the United States would attack Iran? Did you think it was just the United States? Were you sure it was the United States would attack Iran, did you think it was just the United States? Were you sure it was the United States and Israel?

Now, with VoxFi, which is the first Brazilian national forecast market that is being launched. We are launching it here first-hand for you, people. The platform is not fully operational, but we are making an opening here

for you to know and understand what it is. And if you had a hunch, if you read the scenario, what will happen in the world, now you can turn it into an economic result. You can buy contracts,

you can negotiate your perception of reality. And this is very interesting, it helps you to protect yourself from events that can bring you problems, bring problems to your business, to your industry, to your sector, bring impacts or problems to your business, to your industry, to your sector, to bring impacts or problems to your trip.

There are a number of situations that you can imagine that you can predict what will happen and buying a contract of this prediction makes you protected. I'm talking here about a real market, like a stock exchange, like a stock exchange,

like a derivative market. What is a derivative market? Future dollar purchases, future soybeans, future commodities. To the point that here there are no companies and no commodities. We're talking about events, information, news. And here it is.

This is the page. This is not the platform, guys. This is a page that we are launching in Brazil. This already exists in the United States. Maybe some of you already know, have heard of it.

Many imagine that it doesn't. We are launching here in market here in Brazil. And then you can buy the contracts and it works here, right? For example, here we put a simulation of one of the contracts for you to bring your opinions, your guesses. Will Raminei stop being the supreme leader of Iran until March 31?

And then, 97% yes or no? Events can only be yes or no, people. So, it's a binary event. And this question, will it happen? Yes or no? 97% believe it will happen. And it's obvious that the price of this contract, this reality, has just changed.

Because Netanyahu, who is the leader of Israel, and everyone knows he is the Prime Minister, is an authority, a figure. Israel has intelligence capabilities, it did a lot of operations, it killed Hamas' leader, Hezbollah's leader, the Iranian leader, it killed a lot of people.

And if it's saying that the Iranian leader is no longer there, well, we're very close to that reality. And look how interesting, the forecast market works according to the information, the news, the reality. So there is no distortion of the price of these contracts.

This has nothing to do with bets. Nothing. This is a market where the price is defined by the probability of the event. And what is the probability? It changes according to what? According to the information of everyone.

It's not just the news. It's the information of people who have some knowledge. So, everyone who believes in something, really, goes there and invests in it, buys a contract. And then 3% think no. Uh...

What?

That's it.

So, guys, this is the page. I'll leave a link here with QR code, there's a link in the description too, there's a promotion. Since it's not working completely, we're doing a special promotion for you, your first release, first time that this is talked about in Brazil, and you will be privileged here. The first thousand people who enter, register, there are 21 thousand people now on the live, so the first thousand people who enter, they they will earn double the deposit. If you buy a contract for R$10,00,

if you put R$10,00 here in the contract of yes or no, you will earn double, you will earn R$10,00 more. If you put R$100, 100, the platform will earn 50, maximum 50. If you put 50, the platform will put you 50 reais more, only for the first 1000. So you have the ability now to test and to the economic result. So, take advantage, sign up, there are three other contracts, I don't know if they are here. Here is the explanation.

Explore the markets. And then, let's go, right? Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz until March 31. 50% think yes, 50% think no. The US forces will be in Iran until March 31. 66% think no and 35% think yes. Let me explain an interesting point here for you, people.

This is not the same as a research of public opinion.

This is not the same as a research of public opinion. 66% think not, and 35% think yes. Let me explain an interesting point here for you, people. This is not like a public opinion survey, ok? This is a forecasting tool. Why? Because you add information from everyone. And it's not just any opinion. If you are willing to invest or negotiate a contract for it, it is because you really believe in what you are saying.

If I turn to you and say, what do you think? Give me any opinion, it's different from putting it in a contract. When you put it in a contract, you only say it, you only believe in that, if you really have a conviction, you have a foundation. So it's a very transparent platform that works on the basis of analysis, knowledge, information. And everything you follow here on the channel with me is essential for you to be able to participate in a market like this. Because you have real information, you have a deep analysis, you have reflection. It is a market that is based on knowledge, on logic, on information, on reflection.

And not, oh, it's a kick, I think, that's not it. This is a serious thing. This type of market was created in the world for you to deal with big events that have gigantic impacts. Gigantic, this war can have a gigantic impact. All events can be...

You can predict events, and predicting events has a huge economic value. Even more so when we live in the age of information. Information has value. And here we can make it tangible and have clarity about this value.

And it's not because... Oh, it's the opinion. This is not an opinion. It's not just any question, guys. It's not... When you say 35%, this 35% is worth much more than me doing a poll on my Instagram and people answering.

People answer anything, if I'm wrong, damn it. When you have a contract that you put investment there, you don't say anything. So this 35% is much more solid. Obviously, this is likely to change according to the news. That's why being connected, being informed

has a value. And it has an even greater value for you to protect yourself from events, for you to use your knowledge with an economic result. The platform is fantastic.

There are others here, right? You set fire between Russia and Ukraine until June 30. Yes, 18, 83. Will the United States buy Greenland in 2026? 18% says yes, 83% no. And then, of course, Donald Trump will win the Nobel Peace Prize, then there are other normal subjects

that are not international politics, Neymar goes to the World Cup or not, there are a lot of things. But here is a demonstration, this is not the platform, the platform is very cool, I've tried it for a while now, it's really well done. So I invite you to use my coupon, ROCKY, write it down, you'll get a bonus of 100% of what you put in. Up to 50 reais. If you put 50 reais, you'll earn 50 reais more in the operations you do within the platform. This is huge in the United States and around the world, and this is the first forecast market in Brazil, very serious, and this is totally different from the other things you've heard out there.

So, enter here, the link, QR code, it's all there on the page. Remember, the first 1000, run there, sign up and get this promotion. When the platform starts to work, you'll be able to use this money to buy the contracts in what you think will happen in the world. Let me talk a little bit about the axis of the dictatorships. So, let's go to that one. The axis of the dictatorships, people.

What do people want to know? Oh, ok. The axis of the dictatorships will help Iran, right? And then everyone should already be in this story. I forget that every time there is a war, everyone starts, ready, it's over, it's the end of the world, it's the third world war. You know that I speak a lot, explicitly.

The government of Israel found the body of Khamenei. Khamenei died in the war in Iraq.

Who said that? The government of Israel in Iraq. Who said that? The Israeli government said that they found Khamenei's body and he is dead. So let's take this as a fact. Now, if we go back to the market, it would be 100% and if it is proven, and of course these contracts have rules on how to verify the market, it would be 100% and if it is proven, and of course these contracts have rules on how to verify the proof, for example, 100% payment is made because the event happened.

So if the event doesn't happen, it's 0, and if it happens, it's 1. And we were at 97%, now if the event happened, then it's 1. So a new news, a new information changed the market, and in this case this contract would be or will be closed, because it was reality. Well, so is it a reality? Now the question is who takes over the power in Iran.

Who is in power at this moment? The situation is very bad for Iran. Actually, for Iran the situation is hopeful. It has never been so hopeful. The situation is very bad for the Iranian regime. The Revolutionary Guard is surrounded and probably Israel has the targets selected, knows where they are, has intelligence.

This is not a simple operation to just bomb a place. There was previous intelligence to get this right. For months, it was said that Kaminei was in a bunker, for obvious reasons, hidden. And how come he wasn't in the bunker this time? And if he was in the bunker and was still killed, it means that Israel had information, knew where he was, he was able to make a successful operation, a successful attack. All of this shows that the Iranian regime is compromised.

There is another possibility here, given this confirmation on the first day of the attack, that Khamenei was killed, and the success, these are possibilities. We don't know, things are unfolding, we don't have all the information, but there is a possibility here,

maybe even a negotiation with the rest of the regime, in the same way as it was done in Venezuela. Maduro was removed, the regime remained, but the regime remained with the idea that it would cooperate. I don't think Iran is like Venezuela, and it's not easy to do it the same way. Why? Because the Revolutionary Guard is much more ideological. The Venezuelan regime is not entirely so ideological. Rodrigues, for example, is a less ideological person.

She is more pragmatic, she is more afraid. The Revolutionary Guard is more radical, it's a military guard, a military force. So, maybe they have to clean a lot more people from the Revolutionary Guard, so that some of them are left and there is no total collapse of the government and the country. This is a huge fear of the United States and the Arab countries. They wouldn't like to see Iran ungoverned,

with no one in power, because that would provoke a series of separatist movements.

Let me go back to this big screen. Great. Iran is not composed only of Persians.

Persians are an ethnic group within the country. Here, in the north, on the border with Azerbaijan, there is a huge concentration of Azeris, the ethnic people of Azerbaijan. In fact, 25% of Iran's population is from Azeri. Khamenei himself is from Azeri, he is not Persian. Then you have the Baluches, then you have the Arabs, there are Iranian Arabs, then you have the Kurds here too,

you have Pashtuns, you have a series of ethnic groups placed and spread throughout the country. This means that an Iran that is ungoverned, collapsing, would cause a great separation and a rupture of the nation.

And then several other groups would separate and want to join. The dream of Azerbaijan is to recreate the great Azerbaijan. These 20% here in Iran, 25%, join Azerbaijan and become one Azerbaijan. The dream of the Kurds is to join the Kurds of Iraq, Syria and Turkey, which is the largest apatrid people, the largest people that have no state. They join and have a state. They have to come together and form a state.

There is a great fear that Iran will follow the path of Iraq. Of course it's different. Iraq is an artificial state, reconstructed afterwards. You just have to look at the border here, everything is straight. Iran is not. Iran is a millenary civilization, it has a history, it has this identity glue, but it is also an identity glue built in modernity on the basis of a lot of repression.

First, the Shah, the monarchy, repressed to keep everyone united, so there would be no separation. Then the Islamic Republic does the same thing. In the war with Iraq, everything was fine, the Iranian unity consolidated, but after the war ended, they started fighting again. And given all the repression in the country, many of them don't want to stay there anymore, they want to leave, they want to go to other places.

They want to be autonomous, they want to have self-determination, to govern themselves. So there is this concern that Iran will not collapse. By this logic, the United States may not necessarily go in an cannot go to the downfall of the regime in an inconsistent way. And certainly some kind of channel and negotiation is open at this

moment to talk. And then, if you accept a transition, if you abdicate everything we want, maybe we won't continue the attacks. Obviously, for Israel it's different. A revolutionary guard will continue to be an enemy of Israel. And Israel is in the neighborhood, it's part of the same region, it's close, there's a bigger problem. But for the United States, maybe it's be interesting to go to the last consequence.

The fact is that the end of Khamenei is the end of the Yatolahs. So, basically, at this moment, the Iranian theocracy is collapsing. What's left is a military dictatorship, controlled and commanded by the Revolutionary Guard. We are making a final regime transition. As I was explaining to you, this has been happening in recent times,

in a staged way. This was already done. The way Khamenei positioned himself, what he offered to the Revolutionary Guard in exchange for protection, in exchange for consolidating in power, in exchange for the paranoia with the West, with external enemies, which is a DNA of the Iranian Islamic regime.

A paranoia with external actors, with an attempt to overthrow them. This is very important. But I was going to talk about the axis of the dictatorships. If the axis of the dictatorships will or will not help Iran. And I would say no. I recorded a video about this recently, explaining what they did in Venezuela,

how they did nothing in Venezuela and why they didn't. Because, folks, Russia is here, worried about Ukraine. They mobilized the country, they's in a giant war against Ukraine. Russia's focus is Ukraine. She's losing soldiers, she's losing money, she's losing ammunition.

She started this and she has to get this result. Ukraine is much more important to Russia than the base in Syria, so much so that Russia abandoned Syria. Not abandoned, the base is there, but it abandoned Assad. When it saw that Assad was going to fall, it sent troops to save Assad.

Why? Because it has no condition. It told Assad, well, you can come and live here if you want, but I won't help you anymore, I can't. This can't be my problem. Russia abandoned Armenia when Azerbaijan attacked Armenia. Russia abandoned Venezuela when it was attacked. This means that Russia has other priorities, other focuses.

Is it important to have an axis of allies? Yes. But what is the number one priority for Russia? Ukraine, Europe, not the Middle East. And China? China even less, right? China is worried about Taiwan.

It's here, it's worried about Taiwan. She is here, she is worried about Taiwan. Taiwan is what matters. She is preparing for it. In fact, we have a few months until Xi Jinping's term, which is from 2027, the Chinese army has to be ready to take Taiwan,

force if necessary. We are in 26, already entering March, the third month of 2026. It's the moment that China is more focused and dedicated, where the tension with the United States is at the highest point in its history.

Of all, with matters of currency, commerce, finance, several other fronts are open to confront the United States, the technological race of artificial intelligence. Taiwan, China, even less, because China doesn't do that anywhere. China has a much more distant position.

Of course, China buys all the oil from Iran. Iran sells around 1.5 million barrels of oil. Everything they export goes only to China. China has stopped buying from Iran. It's decreasing and buying more from Russia. But that's the problem.

China can buy from others. If it doesn't buy from Venezuela, Venezuela won't produce a million barrels a day more. It's so shoddy. Iran is 1.5 billion. China won't come and rescue Iran.

Nothing will happen. This won't become the third world war. It won't. This is not the point of the third world war. And I repeat, I always explain to you that yes, we are moving towards the third world war,

and I believe it to be something inevitable, unless we have something much bigger is much bigger than the Third World War, like the domination of machines over humanity, which is a super intelligence, and then those scenarios of exterminator of the future and things like that. Otherwise, we are moving towards World War III. But this is a process.

And the pieces are being positioned for this. But this won't happen. This doesn't happen in a trigger. We haven't reached this point yet. This trigger is not the attack against Iran. This trigger can be the attack's attack on Taiwan.

Yes, this could be the trigger. When China makes a naval siege on Taiwan, starts positioning naval assets, military vessels, close to Taiwan, I'll be here doing a live for you, and then you ask me,

ah, Roque, are we getting close to the third world war? Then my answer will be, yes, we are close, but here, no, this confrontation is not with China, China and Russia. Even though they are close to Iran, the Iranian regime is the most distant of the two. It's the strangest, the most different. It's an Islamic religious theocracy. Both China and Russia have problems with Islam

in their territories, in their country, with resistance forces, fundamentalism, or not, or only the domain, the relationship is not that simple. There is an ideological and dictatorial alignment in the sense of being a revisionist power

and helping each other, but helping each other in the face of war, this American war machine? No. And then Trump is right. He makes mistakes by being... very...

light with Putin, with Xi Jinping. It's not that he makes mistakes, but he... he gives space to both sides that he shouldn't. Even more so with Putin. With China he still has some tougher positions. But he's not even a little lenient with the other weaker parts,

like Iran, Venezuela, Hamas, even North Korea, which is quiet lately. But this is the relationship with the dictatorship. Let's open for some questions? Just to remind everyone, the questions come from Rock Academy, Rock Academy is my app.

What's in my app? Deep courses. If you think there's a lot of content here, there are amazing videos, you like what you watch here, then imagine what you can find in Rock Academy. It's more content, much deeper,

I'm not the only teacher, there are other teachers, and there's a section, an area of the Rock Academy called the Rock Bunker. And what's in the Rock Bunker? A real-time news feed with everything that's going on in the world. That is, if you want to follow everything that's going on, you have to go to the Rock Academy. If you want to study, if you want to take courses, if you want to understand geopolitics, you already realized that geopolitics is determining where the economy goes,

where the finances go, where international trade goes, where technology goes. If you are watching what's happening with the dispute between Claude and Antropic, with Pentágono, this is the center, the core of the discussion of geopolitics and artificial intelligence. All these more in-depth subjects will help you to have relevant information, will help you to read the world better, including even for you to participate in the forecast market like VoxFi, which is our partner that is being launched here, as I mentioned to you and presented, and I talked about the unique opportunity, so who hasn't been there yet,

go back there and sign up, you will gain the opportunity to double your investment. Let me see the first question. André Gustavo asks, Professor, how long can the attacks last? I'll ask André. There are two factors I'm looking at to answer this question. The first is the intensity of Iran's retaliation. And so far, the intensity shown shows that the conflict can last not for days, but perhaps weeks. But it's no use for Iran to be able to do this on the first, second, third day, if on the first day the Supreme Leader is already dead,

has already been killed. So, there is another element to be considered, which is simply the Iranian regime's ability to stand up. And if the operations, basically, I would say, Israeli, obviously, along with the American force. And this is the effectiveness of this action so far.

What has been agreed here since the beginning, which was different from the last time. The last time Israel went alone and started doing everything. And then, in the end, the United States came in. This time, the two came together. Since the beginning, Israel has been bringing its intelligence assets,

its information assets, penetration within the Iranian regime, and using the strength and power of the American war machine. This combination is very effective, given that on the first day of the attack, the Supreme Leader was killed. If this continues, the war won't last for many days. But we'll have to see if the next targets that keep the regime standing

will be able to survive. I'd say these are the two factors. Let's say, let's kick it. It's a kick because every new news is changing, but... Let's talk about it, from one week to three weeks, a few more days maybe, if it's not a week, how much?

But two, three days. If in the next attacks a lot of people from the Revolutionary Guard will die. We'll start to see people going out into the streets. Then I think the war will end. Igor Cabrera Marques asks the following. Will we see a change in the behavior of the Arab countries after Iran's retaliation.

I think I've already commented on this, Igor. They have two options. Either they will press the United States to end the war, because they are afraid, or they will have to take sides. And for them, it only makes sense to take sides if the Iranian regime falls. Now that the death of Ayatollah has been confirmed,

I would say that they are more inclined to take sides and want the regime to end once and for all. I think that would be the best. Unless they are very afraid of Iran collapsing and turning into a great civil war, a great tumult. That would be something that would resist them. Jonathan Frad asks, Professor, in June and July there is the World Cup in the United States. If this war lasts until then, will Iran be able to use terrorist attacks in the United States? Look, I don't think it lasts until then.

It's been a long time since I've seen this happening. And I don't think it's easy to make terrorist attacks in American territory. This happened when the Americans were caught by surprise. Of course, we've had several other smaller, punctual attacks. Lonely wolves in life, that can happen. But I don't think it's that disruptive. and the World Cup will have a lot of security. I don't see this as a problem or something possible.

Claudinha Zane asks, Professor, even though I'm a premature, I wonder if you see the possibility of the heir to the throne, the word, being welcomed to take back the reins. Is there such a possibility, Cláudia? I don't rule it out. I don't think he's a person with a lot of legitimacy in general, because he's out, but we have to remember that

when the Supreme Leader struck and started the revolution, he wasn't there. Khamenei wasn't there. He came and ruled the country. Maybe the heir of the monarchy is an option of someone who will be a figure to make a transition.

He has said that this is his goal. I think it makes sense, he's out, he was raised out, he has a different view of the world, he doesn't have the structure for his own power project. If he does that, I don't think it would be bad for Iran. There's a figure there who organizes it.

I said, okay, this guy has a history of legitimacy, but it's temporary. Because if he says he's going to stay, he's going to create other resistance groups, because the history of the monarchy is not a positive history either. Iran was modernized, it was opening up, but there was a lot of internal repression,

there was a lot of control, a lot was happening. Kaiser Junior says the following, Professor, do you think that with the fall of this Iranian regime, another one, even worse, can take over? Look, the worst would be the Revolutionary Guard, but I don't think that neither the United States nor Israel will make it so easy for the Revolutionary Guard. And then I don't see anything so bad. Anything that comes from bad is less bad than Islamic theocracy and the Revolutionary Guard. Another one, Diogo.

Professor, for everything Mossad has done, from the annihilation of Hezbollah to clandestine actions in other countries that we know, we cannot say that Mossad may be behind the capture of Maduro. Actually, no, because this is not a subject for Mossad, you know? Ok, Israel was interested in Venezuela not having the presence of Hezbollah in Venezuela. Yes, the Revolutionary Guard was in Iran.

Yes, Israel can have some kind of presence or information, assets, intelligence, assets, of assets placed in South America? Yes, but South America is not the place where Israel directs most of its resources, because Israel deals with much more dangerous threats in many other places. And people forget that Israel is a very small country, with a very limited resource and budget, and that it has very effective operations and actions.

What does that mean? It means that Israel has no way of directing resources to be so effective in so many places in the world. Now, it has to be ultra-effective with Hamas. For example, it wasn't like that on October 7th. It has to be ultra-effective with Syria. It was.

It has to be ultra-effective with Hezbollah. It was. It has to be ultra-effective with Iran. It was. Israel is concerned about directing its scarce resources and its scarce labor, a small country with a small country, with a small population, with a small number of agents proportional to the country,

and that has to choose where it will infiltrate, where it will put, where it will direct these resources and these people, to the immediate, direct enemies of its region. And these enemies are very serious. Israel is directing its resources to this, not to Maduro, which is not an issue for Israel.

It's too far from Israel. This is an issue for Brazil. Brazil should have the little bird there. Shigeio Izotani. I think I said it right. Correct me if I'm wrong, Shigeio.

What is Brazil's position regarding this attack? I saw some news saying that the Brazilian government has rejected the attacks. What is the relationship with the United States and Israel, Brazil has this tendency, this attachment to the axis of the dictatorships. Brazil has been getting closer diplomatically, and more and more, it is an external ideological policy.

Brazil wants to be on the side of Iran, Hamas, China, Russia, and wants to be against the West. This has already cost, in 2025, sanctions, tariffs, and a diplomatic and political crisis with the United States. It seems that Brazil has learned. Trump and Lula have reacquainted, were placed close, some agreements were reached, and Lula lowered his tone.

But he will never say anything again, because he can't do that to his base, to his political and ideological position. We saw that in Maduro's operation. On the first day, Lula made a comment criticizing the American operation, but then he also shut up, he didn't say much more. Lula made a comment, the Brazilian government commented on the subject, criticized the American and Israeli attack and defended Iran. We don't know how intense this will be.

I don't think... Given what happened in Venezuela and how Lula has responded, I think he understands that he can't keep provoking the US, especially now that Brazil has the possibility to resolve, especially in the election year. I don't know, it depends on what he reads,

what the researches, what the strategies of the PT say, how he can position himself and what kind of problem he can cause. I think that causing a problem now with the United States can stain the image of what he wants to sell in his reelection. I think it was a punctual criticism. We already know the position of the PT and Lula government

in relation to the axis of the dictatorships, in relation to the United States, in relation to the Western world. Brazil, despite being a Western and democratic country, seems to hate the West and democracies, and it brings its own essence and DNA. But I don't think it will be like Lula in 1924,

all day long just talking against the dollar, or even in parts of 1925, until Trump imposed the tariff on sanctions and other crises. I think he's a little down on the ball. Okay, Amir. Amir.

He asks, with the death of the Supreme Leader, will Iran retaliate? It should, but the retaliation is more of the same, right? It's to keep launching missiles against everyone, it's to close the strait of Hormuz more and more, and keep doing everything he can. But they are also on the defensive, they are retreating. Why?

Because there is an attack coming all the time from all sides. So it's a good indicator. We see what kind of response Iran will continue to give

or will give to the confirmed death of the Supreme Leader. But we are living history, right? Khamenei has been in power for 46 years. The Islamic Revolution has been going on since 1979. Maduro and Chávez's regime was in power for 26 years. There are many relevant things happening in the world and I recently talked about several of the changes.

With Iran's loss of power,

the Middle East will have a reconfiguration. about several of the changes. With Iran's loss of power,

the Middle East will have a reconfiguration. And if there is no Iranian project, and let's go back to the map for everyone, if there is no Iranian project, we are seeing other types of alliances forming. I made a video about this, but I will comment here with you. I haven't published this video yet. Before the attack, the day before yesterday,

Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, was in Israel. And it was the first time that an Indian leader visited Israel. India had no diplomatic relations with Israel and was very close to the Palestinian cause. With Modi's arrival in power, this started to change. And with Hamas' attack on Israel, Modi got even closer to Israel, he became more solidary. Why? India is dealing with the fundamentalist Islamic threat from Pakistan. The Pakistani terrorists are attacking India. And we had a war.

Both are atomic powers. Almost a nuclear conflict. Trump said he was the one who solved it. He brought peace. It wasn't him. This is a marketing play. He's solving other things.

Yes, he's solving some things. He's not solving the others. And he says he solved them. We have to understand what is narrative, political discourse, and what is reality.

What he did with Hamas is reality. He who decided the war between India and Pakistan, no. They both decided to retreat, they both have a bomb, they don't want to start a nuclear war. Anyway, India came here to Israel. Israel is very close to India.

Israel is also close to Ethiopia and Somaliland. Somaliland is this part of the African Horn, which is an extension of Somalia, which declared itself an independent country. Israel was the first to recognize it. And, of course, there are some countries that are not liking it.

Saudi Arabia is not liking it. Turkey supports Somalia, but is not liking it. So, what I'm talking about here is a reconfiguration happening in the Middle East. So, two new blocs are emerging. On one side, you have Greece, allied with Israel,

and dealing with problems with Turkey. Greece and Turkey are arch-enemies, rivals. So, Greece is working with Israel to deal with Turkey. Turkey is becoming, or wanting to be, Israel's number one enemy, after Iran, and now the number one enemy of Israel after Iran, and now that Iran is going to this increasingly weak place,

Turkey can replace this place with Iran. Saudi Arabia, which was very pragmatic, which seemed to be getting closer to Israel, with the Abraham Accords, was the central piece, the most important piece of the Abraham Accords, the Abraham's agreement didn't come. Saudi Arabia didn't join it. And few people believe that the agreement will come out with Saudi Arabia.

So Saudi Arabia is not liking this group. It has other interests here in Africa, in South Sudan, Ethiopia, Sudan, Yemen. And on the other side, you have the Emirates, which has always been under the Saudi Arabia's umbrella, and which signed the White Day Agreement with Israel,

so the Emirates is closer to Israel. So, let's go. Greece, Israel, Emirates, India, are forming an axis, an alliance. And the other alliance is being formed with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt on a smaller scale.

And these countries are fighting for influence within Syria. Syria will take Kikara. Who will it be on? And Ethiopia? And Sudan? And Somalia?

And Afghanistan? So, there is already something else being drawn with the lack of importance and relevance of Iran. So, The Middle East will always be highly geopolitical,

but this change in Iran can mean a lot to the region in the short term. We still have to follow what will happen, whether the regime will stand up, be a supreme leader, what are the next steps. The confrontation continues, we are in the middle of a war,

a gigantic American mobilization, well-succeeded operations, several other countries being attacked. The war will not go, unless the regime collapses, but it's a war that is taking a proportion bigger than all the things we've seen

in the last two years in the Middle East. I have a lot of other questions here, but I won't be able to answer all of them, obviously. I think we've been here for two hours, live. Two hours of live, yeah. How many people are we with now?

17,000 people, I think we've hit 26,000 people, I think we hit 26 thousand people. I want to remind you guys of our new partner, that we are launching here in Brazil the first platform of a forecast market, VoxFi, and in this special pre-launch you can use your knowledge,

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debate, analysis, knowledge, it gains more value, it gains importance, relevance. So, take advantage, look there, follow, also follow the networks there, there's their Instagram, I'll keep going, I'll do a series of interviews, this week will be intense, a lot of podcasts too, and I'll be here with you, posting, talking, if news happen I'll do other lives, so stay tuned, don't forget to like the video and subscribe to the channel and if someone starts talking about this topic, share the live so people can watch it I've been talking for 2 hours, I've said a lot of things, there's a lot of valuable information. That's it, guys. I hope you enjoyed it. See you later.

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