Has Farage's By-Election Gamble Already Backfired?

Despite reform still topping the polls, things really don't seem to be going that well for Reform or Nigel Farage.

As we've mentioned in a couple of videos already in the last few weeks, the scandals surrounding Nigel Farage and his finances have put serious pressure on him, drawing negative attention towards the party and kick -starting rumours that Farage may just not have the drive to continue in his role as leader.

In an attempt to counter this narrative though, last Tuesday Nigel Farage announced that he would step down as an MP in order to trigger a by -election in Clacton.There were two reasons for this.Firstly, it would allow him to frame the by -election as a way of letting the people of Clacton, rather than the Standards Committee, decide whether he should still be an MP, in light of his financial scandals.Second, it would give him the opportunity to prove that reform is still able to win by -elections, after a string of pretty miserable results for the party.However, already it's looking unlikely that Farage will be successful on either of these.So, in this video, we're going to have a look at this new by -election, what's likely to happen, and whether any of the likely outcomes will improve either Farage or Reform's position.

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Now, it's worth starting this video by going through in a little more detail exactly why Farage stood down.In the last few weeks, Farage has been accused of failing to declare benefits or payments made to him in the 12 months before he became an MP in 2024, which, as per the rules of the House of Commons, he was required to do.That is, unless the benefits or payments were personal.This is why Farage has claimed to havegiven to him by Christopher Harbourn was a gift, and that the security and social media staff provided to him by George Cottrell were provided in a personal capacity.However, this isn't up to Farage to decide.

As we explained in our other two videos on Farage, the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner launched an investigation into the Christopher Harbourn payment and it seemed possible, likely even, that an investigation would be opened into Farage's financial relationship with Cottrell.If the Commissioner decided that Farage had broken the rules and suggested that a suitable punishment for Farage was a 10 or more day suspension from the House of Commons and the Parliamentary Standards Committee agreed, then a recall petition would have been opened.If at least 10 % of Clacton constituents signed it, then a by -election would have been called.It seems that Farage was hoping that by calling a by -election himself, he would have been able to skirt this process.This isn't the case though.The Commissioner will continue their investigation if and when Farage is re -elected as an MP, opening the possibility for a second Clacton by -election later in the year.

Nonetheless, Farage won a stonking majority back in 2024, 20 points ahead of the Conservative candidate, and looked incredibly likely to win this by -election, and any other potential future by -elections this year.So, what's the problem?Well, as we explained in the intro, Farage nominally had two main aims for the by -election.To sidestep the Standards Committee by securing a mandate in Clacton, and to build momentum for reform and prove that they can win elections.he will likely achieve neither, and actually make both situations even worse.The biggest problem comes with the first aim.

As we already explained, the Commissioner will continue their investigation when Farage is re -elected, which Farage and his team probably already knew.If they get to the point of sanctioning Farage, and assuming he is suspended from the House for more than 10 days and a recall petition is subsequently triggered, Farage's team probably backed on being able to stop 10 % of residents signing it.They could have pointed to the earlier Clacton by -election, and the mandate Farage won, and claim it's just unnecessary.Failing this, if 10 % of residents did sign it, Farage could have tried to simply undermine the legitimacy of the second by -election.He could have just argued it wasn't necessary, as Clacton residents had already had their say.However, none of this works now that the other parties have said they won't stand a candidate, as the by -election has already descended into farce.

The only notable figure standing against Farage is Count Binface, and barring the British public being very funny, everyone knows Farage will win comfortably.It's worth pointing out that this isn't something Farage expected to happen, with him responding to the Daily Mail, who asked him if he had considered the possibility of him being the only serious candidate, No, of course not.Why would they not contest?It's a real election.Essentially then, as Farage isn't standing in a real competitive by -election, he can't attempt to undermine the need for a second one.Making matters even worse for him is the fact that this also means that this by -election is unlikely to help Farage achieve his second aim of building momentum for reform.

Sure, Farage will win this by -election.But, again, the fact it's not a competitive one means that little can be taken from this victory.If he'd increased his majority from 2024 in a by -election in which other parties were standing, he could point to this as evidence of reform's momentum.However, pointing to an increased majority from 2024 in a by -election against Count Binface doesn't really do this.What all of this does do, though, is keep reform in the headlines for all the wrong reasons.Discussions will continue about Farage's finances, and about his failure to declare his financial interests when he became an MP in 2024.

So what does this all mean for Farage and reform?Well, given that there was already speculation prior to this whole saga that Farage may be growing tired of leading the party, and frustrated that things aren't going their way at the moment, there is an increased risk that Farage could step down as PM.Reform polling is only going to be pushed down further with the arrival of Andy Burnham as PM, who will likely see a honeymoon period bounce in the polls.In fact, we're already starting to see this play out.Additionally, with Farage's finances in the spotlight, it's likely that this will only damage reform polling even further.Polling shows that even among reform voters, 40 % think that he's being honest about his finances.

And it should go without saying, if Raj does opt to resign as leader, reform is in for a world of problems.There would likely be a bitter leadership contest between the highly ambitious senior figures such as Richard Tice, Zia Yousaf and Robert Jenrick.Both the old -school, formerly Tory -era sceptics would clash with the younger, more right -wing supporters in this battle for the soul of the party, undermining unity and causing very public rifts.For a party attempting to show it's different to the mainstream, and hold on to its polling lead, such a contest would be a disaster.

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