How Bad Could the Elections Be for Labour?

The last thing Keir Starmer needs right now are some pesky elections.His premiership has been rocked yet again by developments in the Peter Mandelson saga.Polls continue to show that Labour are down in third place, and there are persistent rumours that his party plans to topple him and install a soft left leader.So elections at this moment would only serve to highlight the scale of the problems facing the Prime Minister.Unfortunately for Stalmer though, elections are rapidly approaching.In a matter of days, on Thursday 7th May, Brits will be heading to the polls to elect new councillors in England, members of the Scottish Parliament and members of the Welsh Parliament in what could be a bloodbath for the Labour Party.

So in this video we're going to take a look at what could happen in these elections, specifically looking at how bad they could be for Labour and which parties look set to benefit.Never miss an episode and always feel in the loop by subscribing and ringing the bell.Now, we're going to split this video into three, and start by taking a look at the English local elections, then the Scottish elections, and finally the Welsh elections.So, let's get straight into the English locals.Because of the complicated nature of the council system in the UK, councils aren't all elected at the same time nationally.They're staggered.

This year, 136 councils are up for election, including all 32 boroughs of London.This means that a total of 4 ,992 councillors will be elected this week.Now, technically, only 106 councils were actually meant to be up for election, as the government had argued that because the other 30 councils were in the middle of a shake -up, with many two -tier district and county councils in the process of being replaced by unitary councils, their election should be postponed.However, following a legal challenge from Reform UK, the government backed down and confirmed that elections will be taking place in these places too.Now, as things stand, of the nearly 5 ,000 councilsup for election, 2 ,196 of them are Labour, 1 ,134 are Conservative, 663 are Liberal Democrat, 170 are Green, and 78 are Reform.

When it comes to these councils' control, 83 are Labour -controlled, 22 are Conservative -controlled, 22 are Lib Dem -controlled, 1 is Green -controlled, and 6 are controlled by Independents.The remaining 2 are the newly created East and West Surrey Unitary Authorities.Now, while Labour holds many of the councils up for election, they're unlikely to hold them.The latest polling suggests that Labour are on track to lose more than 1 ,000 of their councillors, while the Tories are on track to lose around 500.Smaller parties look set to gain from these declines, with the Lib Dems on track to gain about 100 councillors, the Greens nearly 400, and Reform nearly 1 ,300 councillors.It looks like many of Labour's losses will be in London and the North.

As things stand, Labour controls 21 of the 32 London boroughs, but a YouGov MRP poll shows that they're now on course to win the most votes in only 15 boroughs.The Greens, though, are on track to win the most votes in four London boroughs – Lambeth, Lewisham, Hackney and Waltham Forest.Similarly, Reform are set to win the most votes in three boroughs – Bromley, Barking and Dagenham and Havering.Given that the Greens and Reforms don't currently control any London councils, winning any of these would be a big victory for them.In the North, which has been a stronghold for Labour support, and is an area in which most of the councils currently up for election are represented by Labour, it looks as though Reform are on track to make inroads.

Britain Elect's polling suggests that Reform could form a majority administration in Wakefield and Sunderland, and there are a handful of other councils they could be the largest party in.For the Greens, there's also the prospect of them being the largest party in Sheffield.It looks then like the English local elections could be devastating for the Labour party, and could see them lose control of a significant number of councils up and down the country.Making matters worse is the situation north of the border in Scotland.Back at the time of the 2024 general election, things were starting to look up for Labour in Scotland.After four consecutive terms in power in Holyrood, the SNP were beginning to decline in the polls, and Labour were on the ascendancy.

It seemed as though SNP scandals about party finances and the breakdown of their working relationship with the Scottish Greens had finally caught up with them.However, the UK Labour government's unpopularity has damaged Scottish Labour, providing some relief to the SNP.As Starmer's premiership has dragged on, Labour has dropped further and further in the Holyrood polls, to the point that now they're polling at roughly half of what they were at the time of the 2024 general election.Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has even tried to distance himself from Starmer, with him publicly calling for the Prime Minister to resign.The SMP, however, have managed to steady up their polling, and slightly improved since 2024.Obviously, a lot of the SMP's comeback has been due to the collapse of Labour, but Swinney has also proved himself to be a very capable leader, and his focus on the NHS and cost of living does seem to have worked for him.

YouGov's MRP from last month suggests that the SNP could win 67 seats in the Scottish Parliament, enough for them to form their own majority, only the second time in the history of the Scottish Parliament that a party has won an overall majority.Interestingly enough though, Reform would be on track to become the second largest party, which would be a major breakthrough, with them projected to win 20 seats.Considering that at one point Labour had been hoping to dethrone the SNP, this would be a significant loss for them, and would pile even more pressure on Starmer.And finally, in Wales, it looks as though Labour is set to be replaced by Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with both looking to make significant breakthroughs.The latest YouGov polling suggests that the election will be tight, with Reform winning 37 seats and Plaid winning 36 in the 96 -seat Senate, leaving both short of an overall majority.With margins this small, it's hard to say with any confidence which party will be larger, but the general consensus is that either way, Plaid will have an easier shot at forming the next government, given that other parties are reluctant to work with Reform.

That same YouGov poll sees Labour collapsing to a mere 12 seats, which would be a catastrophe for the party that has won every election in Wales since 1922.This could see Wales starting to look a whole lot more like Scotland, where a nationalist party displaces Labour to become the party of choice for left of centre voters, fundamentally altering the political landscape.A result like that, along with a bad result in Scotland and the loss of swathes of council seats in England, could be the final nail in the coffin for Starmer.So you're probably wondering what's next for this story, and how it's going to develop over the coming days and weeks.But it might be overwhelming trying to sift through thousands of news articles, trying to find one that you can trust not to feed you a false narrative.Luckily, we have a simple solution for you.

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