'If you haven't already realised Trump is a deranged, lying idiot, you never will' | James O'Brien

that another ceasefire is on the way or an extension to the current one and that this one may signal an end to hostilities in Iran, hopefully also in Lebanon.Although, as has become common, Benjamin Netanyahu responded to positive noises emerging from negotiations between Iran and the United States of America by bombing, by attacking civilians in Beirut.launching a new round of attacks there.That's what happened last week, isn't it?When Trump was also criticizing Netanyahu in conversations with reporters.Listen, it's the biggest story in the world and it's also the weirdest because I don't know how to talk about it anymore.

I know, for example, that Donald Trump will claim a victory when he has not won anything.I know, for example, that Benjamin Netanyahu will probably not be bound by anything that Donald Trump tells him to do and will probably continue with his attacks upon Lebanon.There being not a great deal left in Gaza for him to continue to attack there.I know that the deal, whatever it may be, will involve billions of dollars being released to Iran and promises to cease any attempts to develop a nuclear weapon, which is...exactly what Barack Obama secured and Donald Trump set fire to.

I know that the Strait of Hormuz is going to continue to impact upon the global economy most obviously but by no means exclusively through oil prices for months after the passages reopened.

I know that it was only closed because of Trump and Netanyahu's attack.

So they will be celebrating a return to roughly where we were three and a half months ago before he started a war that was supposed to take merely a couple of weeks.It's almost four months, let's say four months ago.

How do you acknowledge or recognise all of those moving parts?

It will be, at the very, very best, it will be what was in place four months ago, with obviously thousands of deaths.having occurred in the interim.Thousands of people having been killed.Israeli strikes in Lebanon believed to have killed more than 3 ,700 people, including 240 children.About a million people have been displaced.We know that in Iran, 100 schoolgirls were killed by the US.

strike on the very first day of the war, all of these poor souls have perished, all of these people have died, American troops, Israeli troops, and The best case scenario is that things will return, will revert to exactly where they were four months ago, which was a status quo not as good, not as safe, not as beneficial to the world as the one that was secured by Barack Obama during his administration.

And that is why it defies analysis.The people in this country that cheerlead for Donald Trump We'll just go quiet for a while.Dick Littlejohn in the Daily Mail will probably start writing about old episodes of The Bill.No, sorry, he's already done that.

He'll probably start writing about old episodes of Crackerjack in this week's column.

That would be great.Those were the days.Cracker Jacks, Friday, pencil and pen or something.A Cracker Jack pencil.Because they can't ever, as with Brexit, which we'll also be talking about this week.These people are absolutely incapable of putting their hands up and saying I'm an idiot.

I got absolutely everything wrong.

I was, probably in the case of Trump and Brexit, so completely seduced by the racism that I absolutely lost sight of the ball.

" So you're not going to have anything to push against when it comes to analysis.You're not even going to be able to do what I like doing on a daily basis and saying, let me show you why they're wrong.And then I run through it, not an opinion, just counting.And at the end of that process, you can say, oh God, yeah, they are wrong.Or you can say, I don't care that they're wrong.I still really love the racism.

and you can't really rely upon the experts because although the experts and you know you can rely upon them for some elements of what is going on like what what happens if the Strait of Hormuz is shut well this happens and that happens what happens if um Well, that's pretty much it actually.What happens when the Strait of Hormuz reopens?

Well, this happens and that happens, but it will not return to normal.Things won't improve, or at least the choke effect, the impact will continue for months afterwards.I mean, Iranian state media currently claiming that the deal will force Israel to withdraw from Lebanon.

Does Donald Trump have the capability, the wherewithal, to tell Benjamin Netanyahu to withdraw completely from Lebanon?If he doesn't...

What happens next?You don't know any of these things.And it's about $25 billion, the expected release of Iranian assets, as well as sanctions relief.So Iran, arguably, comes out of it better than it went into it, while Donald Trump, well, not even arguably.

Iran, despite the loss of human life, which the regime in Iran doesn't seem to care about particularly, I'm talking about the loss of Iranian life, they're going to be coming out of it better than they went into it.So how do you have a phone -in about this kind of thing?I don't think anymore, I don't even think you listen anymore, but people who think Donald Trump is anything other than a deranged lying idiot are worth talking to.That was one of the ideas I had, have a conversation about what's changed, but people who have notyet realised that Donald Trump is a deranged lying idiot... are never going to realise that Donald Trump is a deranged lying idiot.like Dick Littlejohn in the Daily Mail won't be able to talk about it or won't be able to mention it and will instead be writing about 25 year old episodes of Crackerjack for a few weeks.

So how do you, how do you have a conversation about something that is so completely bonkers, so completely and utterly bonkers?And that's presuming it sticks, which there's no guarantee it will.How many times has he announced a ceasefire?Roughly the same amount of times that he's announced the obliteration of Iran's military capability, which is roughly the same amount of times that he's announced that he will do terrible things to them if they don't fall into line immediately, which is about the same amount of times that he's announced that he's not actually going to do terrible things to them despite the fact that they haven't fallen into line immediately because he's changed his mind, because they're terrible people.

It's a win, I think, for Iran, in many ways, with that constant caveat that they've lost many people.Not as many as have been killed in Lebanon, of course, but, again, that doesn't seem to be something that troubles either the White House or Benjamin Netanyahu or the Iranian regime unduly.In fact, the only thing upon which they could all seem to agree is that the civilian deaths don't matter, don't matter.So what do you think has changed?What do you think has changed?A senior US official telling the news organization Zetio that the plan is the same as it was months ago when the White House kept leaking that the president was going to declare victory.

Just say that we won.It doesn't matter whether you did win or not.You will just keep saying Donald Trump won, America won, Donald Trump won.If we said enough times, it will come true, won't it?And that was, I told you that weeks ago.I said that was what was going to happen.

It'll end up worse than it was before.It will end up, obviously, and measurably worse than what was in place after Barack Obama negotiated the JCPOA, but he will march around like a pigeon playing chess insisting that he won.Barack Obama! has made it pretty clear that the likelihood of this deal being better than the one he negotiated is almost non -existent.And, of course, also acknowledged that chaos had been unleashed on the global economy.Characteristically diplomatic, Obama said, it is doubtful that any agreement that arises is going to be significantly different or a significant improvement from the deal that we had in the first place and worked for for a long stretch of time before we, the United States, pulled out of it.a reference to Trump tearing up Obama's deal in his first term, which, in case you don't know this, left Iran free to enrich uranium.

They started again to about 60%, which is close to weapons grade.

So, what have you learned?Does that work?How much damage has this war done?

And now we can make a list of targets.How much damage has this war done to Benjamin Netanyahu?

I don't think it's done any damage to Donald Trump.I would love you to tell me that I'm wrong.I would love you to tell me, James, I've listened to you for years, I thought you were talking absolute gibberish about Donald Trump, but this engagement has made me realise that you were completely right all along and I never should have listened to the other people.I just don't think you exist.Do you think that person exists?I could deal with the abuse of the disabled journalist, I was comfortable with the boasting about being a sex offender, the felonies didn't really trouble me at all, inciting the insurrection and then pardoning the people responsible for it who were baying for the blood of his own vice president, lying absolutely endlessly and egregiously about the result of the 2020 election.

I just, all of that, I was fine with it all James, but the war in Iran, oh that's really turned my head.I've got to admit now that he was wrong and all along and I can't believe I didn't see it sooner.That person doesn't exist, right?This is why it's such a weird thing to pick over or analyse.The person who would think, oh Trump's alright, what was Dick Littlejohn saying?I wish he was running Britain.

I've never been more ashamed to be British than when we didn't join in with this ludicrous war.So you're fine with the abuse of the disabled people.You're fine with the self -confessed sex offending.You're fine with the court case where he sued a woman who accused him of rape and lost.Make of that what you will.You're fine with the lies about the election.

You're fine with the pardoning of the people that committed the election.You're fine with all the felonies.You're fine with the hideous bullying of the Gold Star dead military veterans family.You can't even begin to make a list.fine with all of that yep still fine with that well never be more ashamed to be British that we didn't go to war with this clown and now today you wake up and you go do you know what I probably should have been a little bit slower to offer him my full -throated support Nigel Farage we should do everything we can to support him Kami Bainott we should do everything we can to support him or gone quiet or reverse or change so you can't what do you do how do you have a conversation about this can I do that as a phone -inHow do you have a conversation about this?

0345 -606 -0970.Is that asking me?Is that me asking you to do my job?How do we have a conversation about this?It's by far the most important story in the world.If your mortgage has gone up, if you've signed a new mortgage deal that's at a higher rate than you were expecting six months ago, it's Donald Trump's fault.

It's Benjamin Netanyahu's fault.It's their fault.That's why.It's gone up.If your food bill, your fuel bill, your cost of living, all of that, it's gone up more than you were expecting.It's their fault.

They did it.They did this.Benjamin Netanyahu because he was desperate to cling on to power.Desperate to stay out of court and therefore jail.Donald Trump because reasons.Someone told him it'd be great.

Someone sold it to him.If you listen to Marco Rubio, Benjamin Netanyahu persuaded him it'll be over by tea time and you can do a lap of honour claiming that you've done a better job of bringing peace to the Middle East than any other previous American president.Every single one of whom, Benjamin Netanyahu, had tried to persuade to attack Iran, but they all had the brains to tell him where to go.

And to Donald Trump, who didn't have the brains to tell him where to go.

I mean, what can you say with any certainty?The same thing you could say at the very beginning, Donald Trump will lose and he will claim victory.Or Donald Trump will end up in a situation that is worse, or at the very best, no better than the situation that the USA was in before with regard to Iran, and he'll claim a glorious victory.He'll claim a glorious, glorious victory.

Israel has been hemorrhaging goodwill and public support right across the world since pretty much the moment it became clear that the response to the October the 7th atrocity was going to involve incalculably more deaths than the October the 7th atrocity involved.

That's not an opinion, I'm afraid, that's counting, albeit that some people are still incapable of understanding.the human mind works when it watches death tolls rise.Has this damaged Israel any further than it had been damaged before?Has it seen a further hemorrhaging of goodwill and support to the entire country while the current regime remains in place?I don't know.And Iran, I mean the Revolutionary Guard, a theocratic dictatorship, the worst kind of government that anybody who believes in freedom or decency can want to live under.

They come out of it emboldened.They lost the last Ayatollah, but have you met the new one?It's his son.So what has changed?What have you learned?Where has the most damage been inflicted?

And I don't mean death tolls because that would be Lebanon, which didn't really have anything to do with this war in the first place.It's just that Benjamin Netanyahu saw an opportunity while attention was directed to Iran to wade in there and try to do another Gaza.So what is the question?What is the conversation?What does it mean?What does it mean?