Iran BOMBS Kuwait After US ATTACKS Oil Tanker

Good morning and welcome to Breaking Points.Emily, how you doing?

Doing great.Glad to be here.

Big show today.We're going to have three different guests coming through.Really huge show.We're going to start the show talking about the Iranian attacks yesterday.Well, U .S.

attacks on an Iranian ship, Iranian retaliation kind of across the region.But it seems to have calmed back down, but it's kind of set anew.status quo, I think, which we'll talk about.We'll talk about the latest back and forth between Israel and Lebanon and Hezbollah.We're gonna be joined by Josh Paul, who has a new look at the way that the U .S.

is helping the Israelis use their antiquities laws to effectively annex the West Bank.Huge story, huge story.And then we're gonna talk about do as much as we can on election results, California, because it is a failed state, takes 10 days, weeks to count its votes.But we do know enough that we can, I think, confidently forecast some significant results.

I like that we agree on California's failure as a state.

We talked yesterday, Sagar and I, with Dave Dayen.I know Democrats want to break it up so they can get more senators.I think they should just break it up because it's a failed experiment.And just start fresh.Start over.Like, new rules, all those props that you passed, those are out the window.

Direct democracy, man.

It's got some problems.

Do new props.Yeah, let's see what happens.

Or don't do any props at all.

Also, we have interesting...Props not working.Interesting, I agree with that.Interesting election results outside of California, too.Some really interesting stuff in Iowa.Interesting stuff, Ryan, in New Jersey, where...

Where are we?That's right.We interviewed him on last Friday's show, but he won last night.So we're going to break down all of those election results as well.

Yeah.Bill Pulte.is, like Marco Rubio, adding a job.He is the head of the...FHFA, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, where, as everybody knows, he sifted through loan documents to try to find Democrats who didn't fill their paperwork outright and then prosecuted them.They're putting him in charge of national intelligence.

I'm sure that will be fine.

Why not?

This is a man you can trust.He's currently under investigation for what he did at FHFA, which he's not leaving.

Oh, he's going to do both.

He's going to do both.

That little detail I hadn't picked up on.Good.Good.

He'll have access to everything.

The acting DNI we deserve.Yes.

Yes.Yes, indeed.Walla Blagay, who is running for Steny Hoyer's seat in Maryland's Fifth District, which is Southern Maryland, taking a little co -host prerogative because That's my district.

— There you go.

— Went to college there and also got grad school at Maryland, which is also in that district.Steny Hoyer is trying to put an Oracle lobbyist in the seat.As he's stepping down, he's been in office since, like, 81 or something.

— Unbelievable.

— And he wants a Larry Ellison lobbyist to replace him.— The absolute state of the Democratic Party.

And Pulte is the state of the Republican Party.

— And Wallaby Gley and Harry Dunn are running against him, plus another Democrat.dozen candidates.And then the other co -host prerogative, Orrin Cass.

That's right.Orrin Cass, fresh off interviewing Treasury Secretary Scott Besant last night.He is going to be here.We're going to talk a little bit about all of the chaos in New Jersey, outside of Delaney, but also how the right now with the powers in his hands is handling the issue of labor, migrant labor, as it attempts to chart a course for the future.

Yeah, and we have not - In the shaky economy.And we have not covered the conditions and the protests at Delaney Hall enough at all, so I'm glad that we're doing this.

Yeah, so lots to get to, as we said, big show, big show.All right.

Let's kick it off with Iran here.So the IRGC last night launched strikes on both Kuwait and Bahrain in response to an Iranian ship being targeted as it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz.The attack, and you're seeing some of them being intercepted here, the attacks were much more, I think, severe than the attacks than the U .S.expected.The U .

S.statement was, we intercepted everything, but they have previously said, there was this great statement that they put out where they were like, yeah, two MQ -9 Reaper drones were destroyed and five service members were injured as a result of an intercepted ballistic missile.It's like, I don't know if that's what intercepted me.You're not supposed to intercept it with the MQ -9s.with your base, you're supposed to intercept it in the air.Not when it hits the ground, that's not an interception.

So we have no idea because we can't, we will find out in days or weeks how significant the damage was and what got through.Put up A2, this is what the Iranians were responding to, Descentcom put out this footage.You're about to see a Hellfire missile slam into the engine room of this ship and it blows up.blew the video into pixelated form.And so this is what the IRGC then responded to with its fusillade back at them.And the understanding that's coming out of, from Iran analysts, is that Iran is trying to say we're not doing tit -for -tat stuff anymore.

Like you do a tit, we're doing ten tats.That they're trying to say no, you're not doing tit -for -tat.not going to degrade us back into the pre -February status quo.We're trying to lock in the gains that we have established here.And if you don't want to reach a peace deal, we're going to make it painful, not just economically, as fuel inventories are like, people are staring at the bottom of these barrels.We're also going to make it more damaging for you militarily if you hit us.

Yeah, I mean, this is all just totally unexpected, because I was under the impression, two impressions.First, we had a ceasefire.There is no war right now.There's a ceasefire.So everything is right by Congress.There was no need to actually get Congress's permission here, no ongoing need.

And second, that the war is over, because Secretary of State Marco Rubio was testifying in front of the Senate yesterday, and he told us the war is over.Let's watch A3.

Iran has lost a substantial percentage of their missile launchers, and their economy is far worse today.And I mean far worse today than it was six to nine months ago.And they are looking at hundreds of billions of dollars of reconstruction costs just to get to where they were six months ago.

Mr. Rubio, you keep telling us how we're winning this war.The president keeps saying - Well, the war's over now.Completely annihilated.The war is not over.

The war is over.You heard that straight from the Secretary of State testifying in front of Congress yesterday on the split screen, basically, with what we just showed you.

The war very much not over.War is over if you want it.

Yeah, that's right.It's a vision.It's a peaceful vision.He's vision casting.

It's pretty incredible.So what are we talking about then?The war is over.We just said the war is over.All right, let's just skip to the next segment.

Yeah, we're done.This is good.You will never hear us talk about Iran again except in the context of peace.

War is over.

on everything from where he was during negotiations to Cuba.Let's stick on Iran for the moment.This is A4.

— I was shocked to see that you were at a party with President Trump in Miami instead of accompanying Vice President Vance to Pakistan for negotiations.

— What party was I at?

I was at a party?It's publicly reported and there's photos there.But what party?

No, no, no, no.But you're going to say that.I'm going to answer it.

I'm going to answer that question because that's an absurd statement.Let me finish my statement.

I was not at a party.Let me finish my paragraph.He is the second in line to the presidency of the United States.He was president.Mr. Whitkoff is the president's envoy for negotiation for peace deals.Mr. Kushner is a private citizen that serves as an advisor on these functions.

They were the team that we sent to Pakistan.I was not at a party.Where I was is next to the president.because in the midst of those negotiations, I was in communications with them.And in fact, I think there is media reporting from that evening on how multiple occasions I went into a back room, I came back out and spoke to the president and was constantly updating him.On that evening, I spoke to Mr. Kushner and our negotiating team and Mr. Woodcock on at least six occasions, including twice on a secure line from from the phone they had access to over there.

You don't know what you're talking about.Well, let's just bring in his response on Cuba for good measure while we're on the secretary's testimony yesterday.A5.

or the misunderstanding about Cuba.Cuba's actually not controlled by the government.Cuba's controlled by a military holding company named Gaesa.And Gaesa virtually owns anything.They own the tourist sector, they own mining, they own the gas stations, they own everything.They generate about 70 % of Cuba's GDP is under the control of this military company.

And they're sitting on between $14 and $17 billion in assets.So you have people literally starving, people literally like power grid that hasn't been maintained in 10 years, and yet you have this holding military company sitting on these assets.And by the way, not a penny of the money in the military holding company translates over to the public treasury.So the fundamental challenge we have here is that Cuba needs to be, in order for it not to continue to be a failed state, which poses a threat to the United States,they need systemic and serious reform.They need to have economic reforms.

And the question is, can they possibly reform, given the people who are currently in charge, both of Gaiza and of their government?And I think the answer is they can't.I really don't believe this system is capable of reform unless new people take over or a new mindset takes hold.Now, we've engaged in conversations with them.We've offered them what I think needs to happen in order for their economy to recover.And that's the last point I would make, because I think somebody raised this issue of oil blockade.

Cuba was having blackouts well before January 3rd of this year.They were having blackouts for years.And they were having blackouts for two reasons.Number one, no one will give you free oil except Maduro.That's what's changed here.What's changed here is they're no longer getting free oil from Venezuela.

— What do you think, Ryan?Reading the tea leaves there, are we closer to two pieces?Some people may say we would have two wars, but there is no war in Iran.It's over.So maybe we'll also be closer now to a peaceful transition in Cuba?

— Yeah, it's so wild to hear him talk about Cuba.So, yeah, GAESA, which the New York Times has done a bunch of recent reporting on this, so people are hyped up.

— He's kind of cooking on GAESA.

— So, okay, $14 billion.Like, we have spent— at least twice that in the last couple weeks attacking Iran.Like 14 billion dollars does not really make the most threatening intimidating kind of like institution like this is we're supposed to be we're supposed to be scared of this and yes there is there is it is a communist government and and Gaiza is the kind of economic engine that you know, that the government uses to like national, you know, run its national economy.

A huge swath of the economy is.

Yeah.Yeah.And in the last, you know, several years, they often also opened up private businesses.And so now there's this actual competition on the island between private businesses and public businesses and a bunch ofprivate ones are actually outperforming the public ones.And the public ones will then use like socialist, like anti -capitalist arguments to try to get people to come to them, even though the other ones are kind of outperforming them at times.

But yes, like, okay, this guy ASA is a thing.Rubio's point there that they only want free oil.That's all it's about.— No, the U .S.has blocked Cuba from getting any oil, even if they pay for it.

I don't know why he keeps lying about that.

— Yeah, they pressured Mexico not to give Cuba oil.

— Right.And sell, even.If they have $14 billion, as he's saying, they can buy oil.But we won't let them.It's such a flagrant lie that he just keeps telling it.It's so bizarre.

Yes, like there were blackouts before January 2nd.Yeah.Okay, that's true.We've had sanctions on them since the 1960s, and we really tightened them in 2019.

They've been poor stewards of their own economy, and we may disagree on that in some ways, but the bottom line is, does a military intervention make that problem better?Does a military intervention make that problem worse?And that's the real question.

poor stewards of the economy that have produced better education and health outcomes than the United States.Not recently, because now they're really getting smashed into the ground, but we should reflect on that.How is it that a communist government, under these intense sanctions that Rubio says is horribly mismanaged, how are they outperforming the United States?on health and education, even under all of those conditions.

It's a bit of a statement on our own management, of course, here in the United States.

And it might be.something about the value of a robust public sector.

Actually, let's go back to Iran briefly, because we have Trump posting on TruthSocial yesterday.This is at 8 -7.Speaking of what's true, what's false, Trump says, "[Fake news reports that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the USA stopped speaking a few days ago are false and erroneous. The conversations between us have been going on continuously, including four days, three days ago, two days ago, one day ago, and today. Where they lead, one never knows."But, as I told Iran, quote, it's time, one way or another, for you to make a deal.You've been doing this for 47 years, and it cannot be allowed to go on any longer.So there he started, speaking of the Cold War, starting the clock in 1979, it looks like, right?

Yeah.Can we acknowledge that doesn't make any sense?No, it doesn't make any sense.You have to make a deal, but this thing that you have, the Iranian government, can't go on any longer.But if you make a deal that keeps you in power, then it can go on longer.The point that they are still talking is an important one.

It was overblown.And at most, Iran threatened to suspend negotiations.And then Trump responded by calling up Netanyahu and saying, don't bomb Beirut.According to Trump, they're back on.The one Rubio clip we didn't play, there was this hilarious moment where I think it was Chris Van Hollen or somebody is complaining, maybe Schatz, complaining that the Strait of Hormuz is closed.He's like, why does everybody keep blaming us for that?

It's Iran that closed the Strait of Hormuz.And we have almost every country in the world signing a petition to the UN complaining about Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz.There you go.People are like, are you serious?Like, yeah, okay, maybe that's true.of them to do, but everyone predicted that they would do it.

And then they did it.

So it's in their national interest.Yes, this was a back and forth with Rubio in the Senate yesterday as well.It's just like, did you predict that the Strait of Hormuz, did you fail to predict that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed?But this is where, Ryan, again, You keep talking about war.Let's put up the last element on the screen.The White House posted this yesterday, and I fail to understand why this isn't working, Ryan, on you, at least.

Trust in Trump, all caps.Just sit back and relax.It will all work out well in the end.It always does.President Donald J. Trump.Chill out, man.

— Yeah, and Tucker famously said that right before the Iran war, he was like—Tucker was like, I really think this is a mistake.I really think this is going to blow up in your face.And Trump told him, I know you do, I appreciate it, but don't worry, it'll work out.And Tucker said, why?And he's like, because it always does.

It's so beautiful.

Yeah.What's amazing is that he's still using the line after it so plainly did not work out.Like, what about this worked out?

If the war is over, as Rubio says, it very much did not work out.These two things are not true at the same time.

What?What didn't work out?All of our bases are in ashes.Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz.Yes.

Gas is over $4 a gallon.

Iran still has all its nuclear dust.Yes.Gas is approaching $5 a gallon.Who was it?Chevron or somebody said they're looking at $150 to $60 a barrel in the next couple of weeks if nothing changes.All of the kind of Goldman and JPMorgan analysis that was propping up the markets assumed

that by July, the Strait of Hormuza would be wide open.I got a calendar on my laptop here.It's getting close.Clock's ticking.Clock is ticking.The whole time I'm reading these announcements, I'm like, what about this Goldman?

Are we sure?Why?And Trump's like, well, it's all going to happen.It's all going to work out.

— What's extra sad is that some of this we know from that big New York Times report with Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman on the byline.We know that it was Rubio and others inside of the administration predicting some of this would happen.Everybody could have predicted some of this would happen, and were lukewarm on Trump's decision to launch the February 28th strikes, partially because of what they're now defending as this successful war that's now over.

— Yeah, Rubio called the Israeli arguments BS.in that meeting.Trump's like, oh, well, if it's fine, let's do it anyway.