Iran Crumbles, Critics Scramble: Trump’s Long Game Leaves the Media Exposed | Victor Davis Hanson

Hello, this is Victor Davis Hanson for the Daily Signal. I think we should take another look at the Iranian war and I would call it a longer view, not the short-term 24-hour news cycle. What's happening right now is the media and the left wing of the United States political spectrum, the Democratic Party, and they are a nexus now, a borg, they react in 24-hour cycles. So anything that looks unfortunate from the point of the American success in Iran, they cling to.

So on last Monday, it looked like Donald Trump, after his tweet on Easter that he was going to end the civilization of Iran, and I mentioned before he meant the regime, the theocracy, the civilization of radical Shia jihadism in Iran, they wanted to impeach him. They said he was a warmonger, a Hitlerian figure. The next day he announced that negotiations would take place and then he was a taco, a Neville Chamberlain, a George McGovern, a Jimmy Carter.

Trump always chickens out. But it's indicative that they don't look at the war empirically, they look at it entirely in political terms. In fact, people as diverse as Tom Friedman or Bill Kristol, if you collate what they have written, they almost feel that anything that happens negatively in Iran might be positive because it would hurt Donald Trump and then therefore that would be in the long-term interest. Forgetting that we have 100,000 soldiers in the theater risking their lives and they're risking their

lives to eliminate the real opportunity, the real likelihood that Iran could get nuclear-tipped missiles very quickly, not just aimed at Western Europe, but in two or three years perhaps the United States as well, given the participation of North Korea, China, and Russia in their arms industry and their agenda. So we have to look at the long version.

And the long version is the only way we can do that is look at history. And history says it's very unusual that one side has been so victorious in an asymmetric war, especially against the strongest power in the Middle East, by all accounts. 93 million people, a huge territory, and people were terrified of it. Not just the Gulf monarchies, but the Europeans. They de facto, we say the Strait was open before the war.

Yeah, it was open, but it was open on the conditions that Iran would close at any minute or could make things difficult. Prior to this closing, it had closed it in 1980, 79 and 80, and again in 2019, and it threatened to do it on many occasions. It's not going to be able to do that in this war. So if you look at it realistically very quickly they don't have a military so to speak

they have lost probably hundreds of billions if not a half a trillion dollars in a half-century investment in missiles and now in drones and sophisticated aircraft and submarines and capital ships. Their command and control is down to the second and third tier and no one knows who's in power. We don't know if it's the

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, we don't know if it's the political class, we don't know if it's the theocracy, we don't know if it's the army. But we know two things, that they are each afraid of each other. They don't want to seem as if they're too compliant, so they want to be as hardline as possible, but we don't know what that really represents. If it, if all of these communiques that are so lunatic may be just intended for internal consumption. The other fear they have, any one of them is looking at these

four different groups and says, if they cut a deal with the West or the United States in particular, and there's a transitional figure and the people take over, we're all going to be dead for what we've done. And so it's a very fluid situation politically. But militarily, it's clear that this has been an overwhelmingly devastating war for Iran. And who are the winners and losers of it?

Take Russia. Russia has no presence in Venezuela now. It has no presence in Latin America. It has no presence in the Middle East. Its Assad regime is gone. It had a drone back and forth relationship with Iran.

Maybe it's supplying some weaponry across the Caspian Sea, we don't know about, but for all practical purposes that's been severed. It's bogged down in a war with Ukraine. It's lost over a million and a half people. It enjoys a little spike in the oil prices and that may help it, but it would be much more likely that they would want to now get out of the Ukrainian war, have some kind of deal, armistice, and then have sanctions lifted off them because they feel that maybe the Strait of Hormuz doesn't have a good future,

which turns us to the Gulf itself. The Strait of Hormuz has 20 percent, not 80 percent, 20 percent of the world's oil going through it every day. The Saudis are going to expand their Red Sea pipeline. The Emirates are going to expand their pipelines that serve other countries that are oil producers in the Gulf of Oman. They're talking about going across the desert through Jordan to Haifa. And you could envision in four or five years the Gulf might only serve Iran. Instead of being an asset, it could be a liability. If anybody wanted to close it, it would hurt, what, Iraq and Iran more than anybody else.

I mean, Iran has other ports, but it would be an inert asset. And so holding onto the strait and threatening the world means that people are going to find alternative oil supplies and they're already doing it with the US and Venezuela. And if Russia is smart, it will try to find a ceasefire and join in this alternate supply that's non-Gulf. China has been hurt because it got 80% of all Iranian oil and that'll be contingent on the United States. It's already contingent

whether they get Venezuelan oil on the United States. It won't be sold to them at a discount. They look at the war and what do they say? What do they see? They see that drones, submarine drones, surface craft drones, aircraft drones, and now the United States has broadcast to the world, they're gonna acquire what a half a million, a million of them. They're late to the party, but when we get riled up and we get activated, we can

outproduce almost anybody. And the idea that they're going to go across 110 nautical miles into Taiwan after what they've seen in Iran would be very foolhardy. The United States fleet could sit on the other side of Taiwan, arm Taiwan to the teeth, which they're doing now. And it would be very hard for hundreds of, if not thousands of Chinese shipping to come across that strait without being under a constant fire from a sea of ballistic missiles and drones.

Europe is a big loser. We didn't ask all that much of them. We just said, supply us by letting us use your bases and your airspace. That was a very modest, they wouldn't do that. The Spanish closed their embassy in Israel and they kept it open and around. For all practical purposes, Spain is a belligerent.

France wouldn't let us use its air power. They won't even go into Lebanon, their special post-colonial friend and responsibility and help get rid of Hezbollah. Britain said they were going to go protect their interest in Cyprus. They have a base that was targeted. They can't even send one destroyer there. Turkey is a NATO member, and what has Turkey been doing? It's been

really siding with Iran, and it's threatened to invade and attack Israel, a NATO partner. That's who we, that's our other NATO partner. Italy we thought was a close conservative friend. They wouldn't let bombers land in Sicily. The UK has been the most disappointing. Maybe it'll try to help, but it doesn't have much resources anymore. It's sad to say given the history of the Royal Navy, but my gosh, if we were to say, if we had said to Margaret Thatcher when she asked her aid in 1982 to help in the Falcons we could have just quoted what

Stumer would later say. This is not our war. It's not our war. It's not our war in Serbia. It's not a war in Libya. It's not a war in Chad. So you can see the problem with NATO name only and it will be a bilateral, lateral, it'll be a bilateral alliance, I think, more and more, that the United States will pick and choose which NATO members that it will fully work with, because the rest are either neutral or hostile to the United States. And finally, the United States, if this war ends in two or three weeks, it'll still be seven months for the economy

to recover and the oil will start flowing out of the Gulf and more importantly, Venezuelan oil, American oil and even perhaps Russian oil will get on the market to capture these high prices and people will avoid the Gulf as much as they can. And the Gulf will be opened one way or the other. And so there's a good chance that the economy can return and there's a better chance that people will come to the realization

after this 24-hour hysteria and media cycle and left-wing fanaticism is over, when they look at the situations empirically, they're going to say, my gosh, Iran is not threatening the Middle East. My gosh, they don't have a ballistic missile threat. They do not have an immediate avenue to get nuclear weapons. They have no military. Their entire command and control has been wiped out. Their population is furious. It's stewing.

This could be like the fall of the Berlin Wall, which, not the next day, not the next week, not the next month, but within months or in the case of the Soviet Union, within two years, you could see a regime change. So the United States is in a good position, especially because we chose not to fight on the conditions that we did in Iraq and Afghanistan, where we're fighting house to house in Taji or Fallujah or don't know who's friend or who's enemy in a village in Afghanistan.

This was fought on Western American terms and the asymmetry shows it. So we don't know what the ultimate prognosis of this war is, but if we take the long view, it's far more favorable to our interests than it is our enemies. Thank you very much, Victor Davis Hanson, for The Daily Signal. Thank you for tuning in to The Daily Signal. Please like, share, and subscribe

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