Iran 'deal': Ex-NATO commander reveals ‘the bad news’

the U .S.and Iran have reached a framework to end the fighting.A signing is set for this Friday, and what needs to be worked out before then, what they're actually agreeing to, in what timeline, and what's left to be worked out is a very big question.Joining me right now is CNN's Senior Military Analyst, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Admiral James Stavridis.It's good to have you here on a day where there's some answers and a lot more questions.

Admiral, can you characterize this moment For us, in your mind, how close are they to ending the war, do you think?

I think it's like a car kind of chugging down the highway.It's been moving in this direction, Kate.You and I have discussed it over the last couple of months.We always kind of felt there was a 65 % chance we'd get to an agreement.Here we are.So car is chugging along.

Here's the bad news.There's a lot of sand in the gears.You mentioned a couple of them, but tactically, I'll add another one, which is the mines.How many mines are in the strait?When do they get cleared?Who is going to clear them?

Are there going to be escorts for those ships?Those are tactical concerns, very real, believe me, to the mariners who are going to be asked to sail through the straits.And then secondly, operationally, as you mentioned, it's Israel.Lebanon, Hezbollah, that deadly triangle, very much unfinished business, certainly in the minds of the Israelis.So that's operational.And then strategically, it's the nuclear material, as President Trump calls it, the nuclear dust.

It's hardly dust.It's 1 ,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium.And there's no clear path to get that out of the country.So CAR is still chugging, finish line ahead of us.Will we get there?I still think it's a two and three chance, but a lot of sand in the gears.

Let's go back to the tactical, because I was going to ask you, I was kind of in my mind thinking it was like logistics, like how challenging or maybe think about it this way.How quickly can the Strait of Hormuz truly reopen safely and fully to give the confidence, not just in statements, but just to give the confidence of the companies and the shippers and the people who are going to be traveling through the Strait that they can?

We say in the military, and you put your finger on it, the amateurs are talking about all the war fighting and the missiles.The professionals are talking about logistics, meaning, your point, we've got to clear the strait to a level of confidence for these mariners.As you know, I've been through this strait close to 100 times.And it's tough navigation without all the missiles and the mines and the small boats.So to answer the question, I think it's probably not months and months, but it's certainly weeks and weeks.Here's something to watch.

The president is about to land.for the G7 in Europe, can he get the Europeans on task here?I hope so.Europe ought to step up and participate with the U .S.in at least this phase of the operation.

I think they will.Look for European minesweepers to help do that.It'll still take weeks before those mariners are fully confident in the Strait.

This gets to another piece I wanted to ask you about.There's an aspect of the interview the president did with David Sanger of the New York Times over the weekend that I wanted to read.He wrote this, in part, about his conversation with President Trump.Speaking on his 80th birthday, as his family could be heard gathering in the background for a celebratory dinner, he, the president, praised two authoritarians, President Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir Putin of Russia, for aiding in the settlement, or at least not interfering in the settlement.the blockade of the strait.You read that, and then with in mind what you just said, that the president is about to arrive in France to meet with the G7, and it's just how much this Iran war has impacted, maybe reshaped the relationship with traditional U .

S.

allies.Indeed, it has, and not in good ways.And it's driven a kind of wedge between the two sides of NATO.You can feel that transatlantic bridge kind of creaking at the moment.So my message to the Europeans is, here's an opportunity to show Putin and to show Xi that we, the West, can come together, can fulfill this mission together.I think it's an important moment for Europe in that regard.

And then finally, Just a spot of good news is that this is bad news for Vladimir Putin, because as oil prices come down, he has less money to finance his illegal, immoral violation of international law war in Ukraine.

I'm going to bring in CNN global affairs commentator and former deputy Pentagon press secretary, Sabrina Singh.So Sabrina, good morning.Thank you for being here.So first, I want to just talk about the latest Iran saying, look, we're not doing anything until money is unfrozen.And then the U .S.

disputing that.Here's the U .S.ambassador to the U .N., Mike Waltz, speaking on Sunday.

We'll talk on the other side of that.The Iranians are incredibly difficult negotiators, coupled with the fact that they're having a very hard time getting guidance from their supreme leader.And they're not always on the same page within their team between the civilians and military.So, you know, the team has had their hands full dealing with them.but the president has every intent to get this done.

He sort of nodded to something I think that maybe people don't fully appreciate, which is that Iran's regime is pretty much in place, even as though a tier of leadership was killed in these strikes.So answer the question that he's raising here of like, Negotiation, the money, what are the complications?

going to drag its feet on, which are its nuclear program and the highly enriched uranium that is still sitting in Iran.Like Mike Walls was saying, Iran knows how to play the game to draw the United States out.If we're talking about negotiating at minimum within 60 days, that is bringing us up right up to the midterms.And I think Iran knows that the United States is not going to want to start up kinetic action right before the midterms, right before voting starts in November.

Two military questions.One, when we say the strait is opening, does that mean that they're going to, Iran just backs down, the U .S.backs down?Are there mines in the strait?Like, are there still dangers there?

could say today that the strait is open and that they're clearing the mines from the strait, but the only ones that are going to determine if the strait is open are the shipping companies.Are they willing to allow their ships to start going through the strait and potentially incurring costs if, let's say, a drone is launched from Iran or there's crime in the strait?the two sides.

So even though Donald Trump is saying, on friday the street is open it is still we won't know until ships pass exactly last thing militarily israel israel and we're gonna talk about this program across the political spectrum unhappy with this deal and in part because of military reasons they say it doesn't address their issues around proxies that iran backs like hezbollah it doesn't even talk about ballistic missiles that's not even in the conversation around the memorandum of understanding at least so far this is kind of the same criticism that the Obama deal had.

I mean, you might not have agreed with the JCPOA, but that was something under the Obama administration, but that was something that took almost two years to negotiate.Now, with Israel, what's interesting about this agreement that this administration has negotiated, Israel is not party to the agreement.And they have said, I mean, I think as early as this morning, that they might continue to conduct operations in Lebanon.So between now and Friday, Things could get derailed very quickly.I think President Trump, he wanted a win on his birthday, which he got this agreement.And he also wanted to walk into the G7 with saying, hey, this war is coming to an end.

European partners, now it's time to do your part and help us clear the streets.

Can he do that if Israel has seized an amount of land that's like around the size of New York City and says it's going to continue its battle against Hezbollah?

I think it's going to be very difficult if Israel continues to conduct military operations for Iran to agree to terms with the United United States when it's going to say to the United States, this is also an aggressor in this war that also struck our country.You need to pull them back.And that's why you saw the president sort of react in some of these interviews that he was giving on Sunday, saying, you know, what is Bibi doing?Because he does not want to see this agreement go off the rails.