Iran Supreme Leader STUNS Trump With Nuclear Red Line

Good morning, everybody.Happy Thursday.We have an amazing show for everybody today, bro show.Good to see you, Ryan.All right.Let's do it.

Let's go.You people, the people are so lucky that two subsequent back to back days of Ryan Grimm.

What more can you ask for?What more could you possibly ask for?

All right.Let's come up on me.We are going to start with Iran.We're going to talk about this new statement from the Iranian supreme leaders declaring that all nuclear material, including the enriched material, must stay in Iran.It throws a real wrench in the White House.of right double, and it would not help any teacher in Queens.

We're also going to talk about a new incident that happened in Israel, where the Minister of National Security, Itmar Ben -Gavir, was seen harassing flotilla detainees, an aid flotilla.Many of them have Western passports.It has ignited a major international incident, despite, Ryan, they do this literally every day, but they do it to Palestinian students.time around, they did it to people with Western passports, and they did it on camera, which I guess has never really mattered in the past.But this time, it was both of those things, where even the prime minister is like, this does not represent our values.It is amusing because it would be like Trump saying, Todd Blanch, the attorney general, does not represent the government of the United, you're like, wait, hold on a second, what?

How does that work?Like one guy gets caught insider trading, and Trump is like, that does not represent our values.Ryan's got a monologue.about Chuck Schumer.him some of the issues that he's currently having, you know, with Spencer Pratt, the rise there in Los Angeles, how he would govern the state, how he would handle Donald Trump.And he pressed him on the issue of Israel as well.

By the way, Steyer is the one who made that into an issue himself.And so Griffin really got him on that.I think you guys should check it out.And Griffin looks extra smashing uh in the suit uh which he bought after i shaved the stash he looks incredible yeah let's just give griffin his flowers here this the power of the suit can elevate literally anything i'm joking griffin is a very very handsome man okay please hit subscribe handsome with a suit he looks more handsome with a suit as doesHe looks more handsome with a suit.biggest sticking point of the entire deal, potentially even more so than the Strait of Hormuz, where the Iranians have shown some level of flexibility.

Effectively what this new directive from the Supreme Leader says is number one This cannot be questioned because it's coming from the Supreme Leader.So that means this is policy This is the policy that has been set out to Trump has said actually that all of the weapons -grade uranium In fact, all of the uranium has to not only be taken out of Iran But they would not even accept it being sent to China and to Russia which previously had been floated here The Supreme Leader is drawing a complete red line saying it is not leaving the country period, which means that they will retain some level of control over it.They have offered in the past to downblend their uranium under IAEA inspections, and I know this can sound a little bit technical, but the bottom line is this, it is a huge middle finger to probably the number one nuclear demand that Donald Trump has made from the outset in this entire war.

Yeah, and just for a little media literacy, Reuters has been very good on its coverage of Iran.They do have sources in the Iranian government.They haven't fallen for all of the different Lucy and the football moves that the US has tried to play here.And this is being done publicly.So this is, I think, you know, this is credible reporting that we can talk about as actuallybearing out, which is a thing we have to do when it comes to this war, unfortunately.

So Trump has repeatedly said that the issue is public relations, that the issue is optics.This is directly from Trump.He says that he has said so many times that he's going to get the nuclear dust, as he keeps calling it, that he needs to get the nuclear dust.He has set up his own kind of trap that the only way out is he's got to get it.And he has said psychologically, I would feel much better if I got it.That's not a very persuasive kind of argument or motivation from one side of the debate that you have to do it because you said you were going to do it.

If the actual goal is to make it so that the surrounding countries, but by which they mean Israel, are safe from any kind of nuclear threat from Iran, downblending under IAEA inspection would be plenty.Iranians agreeing just not to enter the facility where it's currently kind of under rubble would also satisfy that.Taking it to a third country, Russia, as was done in the 2015 JCPOA, would also satisfy it.But President Trump, while that was sort of on the table, like it was kind of floating as a possibility, President Trump never once grasped at that.He never once said, oh, okay, Iran, this is a way out.Iran seems willing to move this to Russia.

I can say the Gulf countries want me to end this war.Live Gulf is struggling.We got to get back to the basics.And we're going to end this.That was on the table.Now, the new Supreme Leader, and there was regime change, apparently, according to Trump, is saying, no, that's no longer on the table.

So now we have to see how Trump handles this kind of humiliation.

As of last night, Trump had said that we're right on the borderline.Let's take a listen.

After you said yesterday you're about an hour away from making a decision, where does that stand today?Have you heard anything from them?

Right on the borderline, believe me.If we don't get the right answers, it goes very quickly.We're all ready to go.We have to get the right answers.It would have to be a complete, 100 percent good answers.And if we do, we save a lot of time, energy, and lives, most importantly.

It could go very quickly.Or a few days.It could be a few days.But it could go very quickly.Iran is a defeated nation.We're dealing with some people.

And we're dealing — actually, I must tell you, we're dealing with some very good people.We're dealing with people that are, I think, far more reasonable than the people that are really no longer with us.We're dealing with some people with talent, with good brain power, and we're pretty impressed by it.So hopefully those people will make a deal that's going to be great for everybody.

So at that time, he's gassing them up.At the same time, though, he says, I'm not in a hurry.I'm not in a hurry at all.Let's take a listen to that.

Would you be open to a limited deal that just covered the Strait of Hormuz?What does that mean?On Iran, just a limited deal just for a longer ceasefire.

We'd have to open the Strait.That would open immediately.So we're going to give this one shot.I'm in no hurry.You never think, Oh, the midterms, I'm in a hurry.I'm in no hurry.

I just, uh, ideally I'd like to see a few people killed as opposed to a lot.We can do it either way, but, but I'd like to see a few people killed.I just wonder whether or not they have the good of the people because some of the things they're doing to me means they don't have the good of the people and they have to have the good of the people.

Not in a hurry, not in a hurry at all.So maybe, maybe not again, uh, not in a hurry.media literacy, many of you should know this one.Let's put it up here on the screen.Barak Ravid over at Axios, who gets very testy if you point out his previous IDF military background.But anyways, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed a new effort to reach a deal with Iran in a difficult call.

Three sources said, one source said Netanyahu's, quote, hair was on fire after the call.So at first I'm like, hey, maybe this is a good thing.So here's what they say.A revised peace memo was drafted by Qatar and Pakistan with the input from the other regional mediators.The outline of the deal is a Memorandum of Understanding, Ryan.The Memorandum of Understanding would lead to a 30 -day ceasefire, even though this currency has been longer than 30 days, a gradual reducing of the US naval blockade and allegedly like Iranian lack of control over the Straits of Hormuz, some sort of sanctions relief in the immediate term, like a 25 % unfreezing.

However, it does require the Iranians to make at least some pre -commitments to an eventual deal on the nuclear file.This just doesn't really fit with a lot of what we've seen out of them.I do especially want your analysis here with Pakistan.Let's put the next one up here on the screen because they are the linchpin in this entire thing.This is from the Pakistani media.all the time.

There were some original reports Pakistan was going to, the Pakistani, who was it, the army chief was going to go fly to Tehran, present this deal, make it into a whole big thing.But then the news of the Supreme Leader announcement that came out this morning kind of throws a wrench into this whole thing.

Yes.And as people have been pointing out, Axios published by Barak Ravid, almost identical stories in June of 2025, right before the 12 day war started.And then again, in February of this year, right before this ongoing war started.So when some people saw that article like, oh wait, I've read this twice before and I know what follows, war resumes.And perhaps the Iranians are tired of this pattern and are kind of throwing in some type of new variable here, because otherwise it's like Groundhog Day, like Barak Ravid promises Netanyahu is furious and that Trump is on the brink of reaching a deal with them and then there's a surprise attack and they kill as many politicians and military figures and middle schoolers as they can in like a short period of time.This new fatwa about nuclear power, is it even a fatwa?

I don't know, it's a directive.I don't think it's a fatwa.I'm not enough of a Shia religious scholar to tell you the difference.

I mean the bigger difference would be harder to climb down from then a directive.Directive, issue a new directive.It shouldn't logically be that big of a deal because there are so many ways for you to ensure nuclear non -proliferation or make sure the inspections are robust enough, especially because, as Trump has repeatedly said, they devastated the entire program.

They killed all of the scientists.

It's buried, it's literally buried under rubble right now.As he said, we have sevenon it watching it at all times.That's that's true.They do.So what are you freaking out about?

Like, so that a deal should be there.But I don't know.Awfully pessimistic.

I think people should be pessimistic because in the way that Trump has talked, Trump has actually trapped himself twice ironically.So he did the escalation trap where he didn't defeat Iran and so now he has only two options, surrender and or basically escalation.The other trap that he made is he basically left himself no negotiating room whenever it came to the nuclear issue where he said no we're going to take it all and so those two things is way past the JCPOA and actually Iran in a stronger position now because of their drone threat, their ability to sustain and survive an onslaught of the full force and might of the United States Empire.Well, you also have the neocon faction here in the United States.Let's put A6 up here on the screen.Here's Lindsey Graham in only the way that Lindsey Graham can.

It's a subtweet with a belligerent phrase here at the top.I believe President Trump has done a brilliant job in weakening the Iranian terrorist regime to the lowest they've been since 1979.Hats off to our commander -in -chief, to all who serve under his command.Like everyone, I hope for a diplomatic solution.Yes, he does.It must be comprehensive to ensure Iran is no longer the largest state sponsor of terror.

It must be real.Negotiations must be reliable.I appreciate everyone's efforts.And now, he says, I'm hearing the Pakistan's field marshal may travel to Iran.What could go wrong?Maybe he'll report the status of Iranian military aircraft being housed on Pakistani air bases.

Like so many, I'm watching very closely what unfolds.Yet again, another effort to reach a deal with the Iranian regime.I wish all -involved success, that it is real.Very, obviously, thinly veiled subtweet.in this entire thing.And I think what it demonstrates to everybody is that Netanyahu, Bibi, the Iran War lobby, Mark Levin,

and others, if you just watch all of their communications over the last 72 hours, they are freaking out as if the deal is real, but they also are laying the ground to make it so that when he resumes the war, they can claim that this was the correct policy, and also it demonstrates, they'll say, oh, well, by Trump drawing the lines where he has, they can say, oh, Iran's not negotiating good faith, when in reality, this was never on the table from the beginning, after the war, before the war, it's just literally never existed.If you want to go and take the nuclear dust, if you will, then you're going to have to go and get it.The consequences us for here at home are remain immense.Let's put the next one up here You actually flagged this one Ryan 30 -year Treasury yields have now topped 5 .19 percent the highest since before the financial crisis.Is that good anyone?

Is that a good thing?Who's that good for?

So they said rates were us following a string of reports suggested inflationary pressures were Reaccelerating as rising oil prices tied the conflict with Iran push costs higher higher.The development has spooked fixed income investors and caused traders to bet that the next move by the Fed could actually be a rate hike instead of a reduction.What that means is that this is elevated borrowing costs for the government and for everyone.So this is going to affect credit card rates, mortgage rates.The bond market, remember, is what originally forced Trump's hand whenever it came to the tariffs.This time around, it's a little bit different.

He doesn't have unilateral control except for You know, a total surrender.So you have the financial markets where they are.Kind of ignore the stock market at this point, which is basically just all open AI and SpaceX mania and AI, literal AI mania in the stock market.But if you look at the bond market, you look at the oil market.Let me see.Where's gas at as of today?

$4 .56.a gallon.That's like three cents higher than when I checked it a couple of days ago.Diesel six five sixty five a gallon.I mean, it's just it's hovering there Bloomberg analysis came out this morning The median base case on Wall Street is that oil will remain over a hundred dollars a barrel for at least the next year So what's that about four bucks a gallon something like that?

So yeah, good luck, but we're all gonna be paying that for quite a long time It's not just gonna be a blip a blip or a short excursion as Trump continues to say and Brent is down over the last couple of weeks as the ceasefire has kind of held, so that flies right back up if he starts shooting again.Imagine if the United States government, with the world's most powerful military and a very powerful economy, is paying 5 .2 % for a 30 -year note, what are you gonna pay when you go to the bank trying to get a mortgage?You don't have a military, unless you have something, I don't know, you got going on over there.You don't have the world's most powerful economy behind you.You can't print money to pay it back.So you're gonna be paying well into the sixes, five, six, pushing seven, which completely seizes up our real estate market because you can't afford your mortgage then.

The house that you're gonna wanna go out to buy, It's going to cost you a lot more per month and then you're going to be stuck.In your apartment.

Well, it's extremely ironic too because Trump just appointed this new Fed chair whose entire Directive was to lower rates and now the traders are like no He's actually gonna have to increase rates based on where things are right now.So yeah things even awesome more chaos, right?So we're yeah, we're headed to a stagflation and basically just 1970s nonsense and then finally I wanted to get this in here just came out this morning Let's put a 8 up here on the screen Iran is now actually rebuilding the military -industrialU .S.S.aircraft would be more at risk based on the new tactics that they've used.

I mean, the U .S.has studied it too.There's going to be some changes that they've made.I actually, interestingly enough, I don't know if you've seen this, have you seen all these drone cages going up all over the UAE?So, I mean, this is going to be the new world that we live in, is that every critical piece of infrastructure will have a hideous cage, a hideous metal cage that surrounds it just to block a drone from being able to smash in.

Obviously a missile still would be able to, but those are much easier to hit than a $20 ,000 drone.But I did want to flag that just in case hostilities.

Your five star hotel with this little cage around it.

Imagine that, right.And so that's kind of where.

Beautiful fountain with a cage around it.

Yeah, a gorgeous fountain.Imagine the guests.at the Dubai Fairmont or whatever, whatever their ship hotel is, the seven star hotel, I forget the name of it, or the Burj Khalifa, but with the, the Burj Khalifa looks a little different, doesn't it?Whatever, you've got a cage that runs up the entire side of it.

A cage on your balcony?

Yeah, don't think it's gonna help the Dubai cratering real estate market or the hotel occupancy rate or Dubai International Airport.Look, flagging all this because hostilities could resume at any moment.If they were to resume, In Trump's mind, it would be a limited strike.Now, in Iran's mind, it wouldn't be.But in Trump's mind, it would be a limited strike.And so if he were to do it, it would happen over the weekend, I think, because the oil markets and the stock market couldn't react.

And he would want some chance of being able to go in and then stop before marketswere able to open on Monday.But look, that's where things are right now.And in a very strange deja vu, we can now turn to Cuba to talk.It feels like only yesterday we were talking about the kidnapping of a Latin American dictator and the potential conflict coming with Iran.So yeah, wow.

Three months later, and we're exactly the same.We've got our good friend Juan David Rojas standing by.Let's get to it.

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