Iran war enters perilous new phase, with more US troops dead | DW News

The moment Iran hit a U .S.air base in Jordan, two American soldiers were killed.Another is missing.So far, 16 U .S.

service members have died and over 430 wounded.How many more deaths will there be and how much longer will this war go on?The United States has been intensifying its attacks on Iran ever since Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8th.The Islamic Republic has been stepping up its attacks on American allies in the Gulf.A statement attributed to the Supreme Leader warns of unforgettable lessons if the U .S.

keeps attacking.Though it is unclear if Muqtaba Khamenei is actually alive.Here's what one of his advisers had to say about where the conflict could be headed.

If U .S.strikes continue for several more days, we will move into a phase of full -scale offensive operations.Should they try to seize any part of our territory, we would enter that same phase of offense and reciprocal measures, abandoning our defensive posture.

Robin Wright is a foreign affairs analyst at the Wilson Center.What phase would you say this almost five -month war is now in?

Well, there's debate about whether it's the first, second, or third.But the reality is, the president has declared more than 30 times that the war is either over, it's been successful, or it's about to be over.And, of course, the problem is that the war has only escalated.It gets more complicated, especially over the past week, where we've seen the United States hitting infrastructure, not just military targets, and the Iranians have started hitting across the Persian Gulf, Oman, Kuwait, for the first time Saudi Arabia, Jordan.So this is now a region -wide war, not just one between the United States and Iran.Iran.

I guess you're referring to these three strategies, is that right?A former senior Bush official, you quoted him as saying that Trump has tried out three so far, regime change, relentless bombardment and then diplomacy.Are there others Tehran could look forward to when it comes to strategies?

Oh, I don't think that there's the prospect of diplomacy anytime soon.I mean, I think, frankly, that the United States and Iran both don't want to see this war continue to escalate.generate costs, whether it's in humankind or in military expenses.But the problem is, how do you get out of it?Diplomacy has not worked.We're still battling over issues like the Strait of Hormuz, which was not a flashpoint at the beginning of the war.

And of course, Lebanon looms out there as well, with Bibi Netanyahu looking after Israeli interests.not American interests.And so the danger is that this continues to unravel in a way, it's very hard to see an imminent end.

But you reckon Trump is ad -libbing all this time.That's what you wrote in the New Yorker.

I did indeed.And the sense in Washington, which is where I live, and I've covered administrations going back to Richard Nixon, and there is a sense of despair that there's not an exit strategy.And this is at a time that the United States has spent a quarter of a century, most of the 21st century, at war in the Middle East, having lost one in Afghanistan, our longest war, having tried two wars in Iraq, and now against Iran.And the United States has not done well under either Republican or Democratic presidents in terms offiguring out, you know, how do you generate peace in the world's most volatile region?And so there is this kind of gloomy sense of, you know, where does it go and how do we end it?

In that piece, in The New Yorker, you say the US is mired in an intractable conflict of Trump's own making.So basically, he's created exactly what he promised he would never get involved in, his own forever war, yeah?

Absolutely.And this will be, I think, really interesting to see how the American public votes in November, given the fact that many Republicans, many independents particularly, voted because Trump promised not to make this, not to engage in the Middle East or in any war.And of course, we've seen the president engage in, you know, Venezuela and in regime change, that he has been you know, stunningly aggressive for a man who promised no more wars.

Do you think he will suffer consequences in the upcoming midterms?

Well, remember, we have 50 states and each state has its, you know, its own representative and its own political preferences.And we are a red state versus blue state society now, tragically polarized.So, you know, there are questions about what happens in Republican states traditionally, like Texas.And, you know, is that a place where you see a Democratic senator elected for the first time in a long time?This is where the balance of power could play out in ways that Democrats hope it goes one way, and Republicans still think that they are kind of holding onto the bag.I think this is a nation that's really traumatized.

And if the presidentdoesn't see a way out, you know, in a run up to the election by September, that I think that he will pay a cost.

How dangerous would you say ad -libbing a war is?

Well, you know, this was the first war of the 21st century, maybe.But the United States has, you know, since Vietnam, not done very well.Remember Beirut?I lived in Beirut for many years and watched the Marines come in as peacekeepers and then leave, having suffered the largest loss in U .S.military life since Iwo Jima in World War II.

So, you know, this Trump just doesn't seem to understand the region.I don't think that foreign policy is his strength.He seems much more absorbed in what does the reflecting pool in Washington look like, and building arches and other facilities that have his name or his imprint on them.And this is a tragedy.This is not a foreign policy president.But even our foreign policy presidents of this century, Barack Obama, you know, couldn't get out of Afghanistan.

And so this is where I think the mood at the moment is so important.Our track record is now so bad.And I think as you, where you are right now, know that the world doesn't look very favorably on the United States and its foreign policy right now.

Could Trump have bigger things to worry about personally?I mean, have you seen that massive billboard in Revolution Square in Tehran showing Trump in a coffin?Many Iranians have chatted death to America for decades.More recently, it became death to Trump and now kill Trump.Does he have something to worry about there?I mean, how easy a target is the US president for Tehran?

I think that's much more difficult.The Iranians don't have air power over the United States.If there were some kind of individual assassination attempt at a golf course, you know, but I think the Secret Service is very aware of the threats from Iran.You know, what's really striking about a lot of the artwork in Tehran is how vivid, how angry it is.And you don't feel that in the United States yet, because Americans have paid a price militarily.They've paid a lot in munitions.

But even with the two deaths in Jordan, we haven't paid a huge human cost yet.And so while I think Americans are frustrated, angry, about the war that Trump has gotten into, we don't feel it as tangibly as those in the Middle East do with the airstrikes.I mean, think of Kuwait with its water purification or desalinization plants hit by Iran.I mean, these are becoming existential issues for many countries across the region.And so I think this is where there is a political mood in America.There's not yet the kind of dynamism there is in saying Trump must end this war now.

And that's why November will be interesting if there's, you know, how strong the sentiment is in this country by then.

You talk about the anger in Tehran.Do you see that hardening?I mean, there are reports right now that hardliners are gaining more control in Iran.

Absolutely.And now I've been covering Iran, traveling to it since 1973.And I've gone through the revolution, the takeover of the U .S.embassy, I've seen, I covered the war in Iraq on the ground.And so I have not seen the anger within the regime.

I also have not seen the fear within the regime.Its eight -year war with Iraq was with you know, a counterpart in the region.And Iran managed to hold out for eight years and then agreed to a U .N.ceasefire.Now Iran is facing a superpower with you know, 50 ,000 troops in the region, aircraft carriers, destroyers.

We have fired drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles at Iran.And Iran has paid a huge price.But I think the kind of clip you just showed from Mohsen Rezaei, who, former minister of defense, former leader of the Revolutionary Guards, an advisor now to the new supreme leader, is you know, trying to sound bold and defiant, but Iran also is paying a price.And so this balance between the fear, the anger, and the sense that there's a lot at stake, not just physically, but in terms of the political existential nature of the Islamic Republic, now in power 47 years.

At the same time, the goalposts in this war keep shifting.Trump is ad -libbing when it comes to his shifting strategies.What would you say then is driving the conflict now?I mean, is it nuclear weapons?Is it Tehran's newly discovered weapon, the Strait of Hormuz?What's actually behind the momentum right now, do you think?

Well, that's a very important question.And obviously, it's shifted dramatically.The United States originally said it was over Iran's nuclear program, even though American intelligence said Iran had not yet weaponized.It had centrifuges, advanced centrifuges and enriched uranium to 60%, which is not far off weapons grade.And now the only issue is the Strait of Hormuz and the free flow of navigation.20 % of the world's energy resources come from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.

And so you can see in the memo of understanding that the Strait of Hormuz is really the key issue.And Iran is not going to give that up.That's the only leverage it has over the United States, its Gulf neighbors, or the international community.And it intends to hang on to it.And so this is, again, why your question is so important.If we can't find a compromise over this tiny, narrow way, navigational quarter, then it's, you know, how do we end the war?

And, and the President hasn't, you know, will invoke the nuclear program every once in a while, Iran will never get a nuclear weapon.But he's also said things like he calls the 1000 pounds of enriched uranium, dust.And he said it's so embedded now that he thinks Iran couldn't develop a nuclear weapon.So again, this is where he's all over the map.in terms of what is goal, what the strategy, and what the end game is, most of all.

And when it comes to goals and regime change, Robert, I'd love to hear you, based on all your time and experience in Iran, whatyou would say to Iranians right now who may be backing the current regime or hoping for change.

Well, I'm not a policymaker and I don't weigh in with whether it's the United States or Iran.I'm an analyst.And I think that, you know, we've seen with the death and funeral last week for Ayatollah Khamenei, who ruled for more than three decades, the turnout.And not just in Tehran, but in Mashhad, also in neighboring Iraq, where his body was taken to a center of Shiite learning, that you know, it was very striking how many turned out, and how many of those signs said revenge and kill Trump.And I think that was not what President Trump expected.I think he was led to believe by, you know, those who were hawks in the United States, as well as by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, that if the two nations went in and bombed Iran, took out its senior leadership, that the regime would collapse.

And, you know, that didn't happen.And the rule of thumb generally in political science is that if a government has 30 percent of the population, it can survive because it has enough to man the bureaucracy, man the security forces, and either get people to pay taxes or bribes.And so there's always been a question, I think, for more than a decade.whether Iran has that 30 % or not.I think the administration calculated that it was on the edge of the precipice.And what we've seen is that maybe not.

Just a couple more questions.How long do you think this war could go on?

Oh, I have no idea.I mean, as I said, the president said so many times that it's over or about to be over, that, you know, there's no credibility for the administration right now.And I don't say that as a member of either party.I say that as an analyst of the Middle East.You know, I wish there was a sense.that there was, you know, an urgency or a way out.

But it's not clear in Washington right now.

But what are the off -ramps, theoretically?

Well, diplomacy is the only way out.But it's hard to see how the Iranians trust the United States or how the United States trusts Iran.I mean, we've had tensions now for almost a half century.And, you know, the Iranians have how many, but many Iranians anyway, and shouted death to America for a very long time.And now you're seeing Americans very angry, whether it's the loss of American life or the fact that Iran has targeted our closest allies in the Persian Gulf.And that's why it's hard as this war expands to see that there's an endgame here, an exit strategy.

And this was, again, the same thing that happened in Afghanistan.You know, it was every, you know, turnover of whether it was a military general or an administration, there was a sense of one more year and we'll negotiate a way out of it.And of course, it lasted 20 years.It was America's longest war.And it ended up with the bad guys back in power again.So, you know, I think Iran will fight for a long time.

The question is who runs out of will, who runs out of munitions, who runs out of funds first, and who runs out of money.willing to say, you know, we surrender, we'll gauge in diplomacy, we'll give up something.And I'm not sure that either side is at that point yet.

Yeah.So I guess the question isn't really how long is this going to go on for?It's more how much worse is the situation going to be when this is all over?

Unfortunately, Ben, I think that's right.And this past week has been a real tragedy.in, you know, who has died, what's been struck, and the sense that there's no way out.I mean, a month ago, with the Memorandum of Understanding, there was a 14 points that kind of laid out the basics.Now, it was very imprecise.It was very general.

It was shoddy in many ways in terms of diplomacy.And each side could look at it, look at the 14 points and make their own interpretation.And of course, That's what happened.And particularly over the Strait of Hormuz.So, you know, I hope you have a better answer than I do.

Thank you, Robin.Another analyst told us it was a memorandum of misunderstanding, exactly what you're saying right now.Robin, it's been great having you and great getting your insights.Really interesting stuff.Thank you.

Thank you.

And what do you think?Is the U .S.locked in a forever war with Iran?If not, and this war is over sometime soon, will anything have been achieved?It'd be great to read your thoughts.

I'm Ben Fazoolan.See you again soon.