Is Putin Giving Up in Ukraine?

On Saturday, after a conspicuously stripped -back military parade in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia's special military operation, the Kremlin's chosen euphemism for its invasion and war against Ukraine, was coming to an end.Putin also raised the prospect of talks with Europe, naming former German Chancellor and friends of him, Gerhard Schroder, as a potential mediator.The comments came amid a multi -day US -brokered ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, to mark the anniversary of the defeat of Nazism in Europe, and against a backdrop in which the Kremlin finds itself on the back foot in Ukraine, and facing domestic frustration over the economy, internet restrictions, and war fatigue.So in this video we're going to unpack Putin's comments, how seriously we can take them, whether they represent Putin in some sense conceding defeat, whether Europe will step up in negotiations, as well as what all of this means for the trajectory of the war.

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Pre -order your copy today at toolong .news.On the battlefield in Ukraine, Russia is struggling.According to the Institute for the Study of War, in April 2026, Russian forces suffered a net loss of territory in Ukraine for the first time since August 2024.It said in early May that the Russian rate of advance across the battlefield has been steadily declining since November 2025, pointing to Ukrainian counterattacks and mid -range strikes, the blockingof Russia's use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and the Kremlin's restrictions on Telegram as factors exacerbating the existing problems within the Russian military.

According to the New York Times, based on the average monthly rate of advance so far this year, it would take Russia more than three decades to seize full control of Donbass, i .e.the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.Furthermore, Ukrainian and Western officials say that Russian military recruitment has fallen below its casualty rate.The Ukrainian military, which, like Russia, is grappling with a shortage of military manpower, is nonetheless on the front foot for the first time in years.This is in part because, according to the ISW, Ukraine has managed to gain an edge over Russia in drone capabilities, a critical part of the war.

Ukrainian drones and missiles have also managed to bring the war home to Russia, with mid - to long -range strikes that are capable of reaching deep inside Russia and hitting things like energy infrastructure.Recent Ukrainian strikes that have hit oil refineries and terminals have reportedly significantly reduced Russian oil export capacity, too.And for the first time in nearly two decades, Russia's World War II Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9th featured no military vehicles or weaponry, and security surrounding the event was boosted, a sign that the Kremlin feared the possibility of a Ukrainian attack.Ukraine did, however, agree to a three -day US -backed ceasefire with Russia over the weekend, but in what was a cheeky jab at Russia bid to remind it of Ukraine's potential reach, Ukraine's President Zelensky issued a decree giving permission for Russia to hold its May 9th parade without the risk of a Ukrainian attack, even posting the coordinates of Moscow's Red Square.And finally, the domestic situation in Russia is also not pretty.Despite record high energy prices, the Russian economy is struggling.

It shrank 0 .3 % in the first quarter of this year, the first quarterly contraction since 2023, andthis week, the government more than halved its economic growth forecast for 2026, expecting growth of just 0 .4%.Interest rates and inflation remain persistently high, and these factors, combined with the Kremlin's tightening restrictions on the internet, have fueled frustration among the Russian public, sending Putin's popularity to its lowest point since before the invasion of Ukraine.And if you want to know more about this, we actually made a video on the subject, which we'll link in the description.So that's the backdrop you need to remember when hearing Putin's recent comments.Speaking to reporters on Saturday, Putin said of the war in Ukraine, This naturally generated a lot of chatter and headlines over exactly what he could mean.

Not helped by the Kremlin's later response to questions about the comments, which was to say that there were no specifics to discuss.It's worth being frank up front here.This was not Putin capitulating and ordering an end to the war.Instead, he indicated that he thinks the war will come to an end because Europe will realise that it cannot inflict strategic defeat on Russia.Furthermore, in his comments, he reiterated his justifications for the invasion, claiming that the quote, globalist part of the Western elite had provoked this conflict with NATO expansion and Ukraine's desire to join the EU.The Kremlin has also given no indication that it will shift its maximalist demands.

For example, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said last week that a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from eastern Ukraine's Donbass region was a condition for resuming trilateral talks with Ukraine and the US, something the Ukrainian government has rejected.Even if this is the case, though, some analysts see Putin's comment about the war ending as a sign of the Russian president's tricky situation.Essentially, it was a signal from him to the Russian public that he's not waging a forever war.Russian analyst Stefan Meister for the German Council on Foreign Relations was quoted by the New York Times as saying that Putin wants to sendmessage that he understands this war needs to end soon, but it needs to end on his conditions.Zelensky, meanwhile, said that Russia had no intention of ending the war and was instead preparing for new attacks.

Putin also gave a nod towards potential talks with Europe, saying that his preferred interlocutor would be former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder.A suggestion roundly rejected by European leaders, given Schroeder's close ties to Putin.The EU itself is apparently split over direct talks with Russia.Some, including the French and Italian governments, suggest that Europe, with the blessing of Ukraine, should prepare for talks with Russia so that the EU has a seat at the table, having been sidelined and shut out of US -Russia talks.Others, however, say that Europe should bide its time and weaken Russia's hand before engaging.As for the US -led talks, they've largely been on ice since late February, when the US suddenly got distracted by its war in Iran.

And, according to a new Financial Times report, both Russia and Ukraine think there's little prospect of reviving the US -led talks.Putin, maintaining his maximalist demands, has reportedly shifted focus to capturing more Ukrainian territory by force, while Ukrainian officials, buoyed by recent strategic successes, now feel less vulnerable to US pressure for a quick, unfavourable deal.So, all in all, despite Putin's talk of the war coming to an end, Trump also claiming that a peace deal is close, chatter about Europe -Russia talks, and more, there's not much actual evidence that either Ukraine or Russia are prepared to budge from their positions, or that any negotiations are close to a breakthrough.

Greenland.For decades, it's been viewed as little more than a giant ice sheet on the edge of the world.A massive ice fortress that most of us only ever saw from 30 ,000 feet on a flight somewhere else.However, that ice is receding, and as it does, the world's superpowers are beginning to move in.At TLDR, we've spent almost 10 years explaining things from behind a desk, but some stories are too big for our studio.So to understand why this island, and the Arctic more generally, has suddenly become the most valuable real estate on Earth, We had to go there.

As you'll soon discover though, this isn't just a political briefing hosted from the cold.We're hiking through the wild, discovering melting icebergs, and uncovering the rusting remnants of secret military projects abandoned in the snow.I used to think I understood what cold was, but that was lying to myself.Over three episodes, we're asking, what's the big deal with Greenland?From the scramble for rare earth minerals, to the new battlefield for Washington, Beijing and Moscow.We're camping out in the glaciers that are changing our climate and discovering the country caught in the middle of this global tug of war.

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There's the whale.Bright whale.Rather appropriately for the world's largest island, this is the biggest project we've ever taken on.A documentary about the beauty, power and future of our planet.Coming this summer exclusively to TLDR Party members.

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