Is Reform Losing its Polling Lead?

With the return of Andy Burnham, things are really looking up for the Labour Party.Despite falling in the polls significantly under Keir Starmer, to the point that, at certain points, they were behind Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens, it's already looking like Labour are on the verge of making a comeback in the polls.The latest Survation poll, with fieldwork conducted between the 10th and 14th of July, the last few days of Starmer's premiership, had Labour level with Reform on 24 points.Similarly, the latest YouGov poll, with fieldwork conducted between the 19th and 20th of July, after Burnham became Labour leader but before he became Prime Minister, showed that Labour Labour had risen to 20 points in the polls, only 3 points behind Reform.Both of these polls contribute to the well -observed uptick in support for Labour, and the relative tailing off in support for Reform.So, in this video, we're going to have a look into Reform's decline, outlining the potential causes, and whether it's possible they can stem the decline and reassert their dominance in the polls.

Which flag is better, Canada or Iceland?What about Japan or Mexico?Albania or Barbados?How about a battle of the dragons between Wales and Bhutan?Cast your vote in our official flag ranking survey by clicking the link in the description.Back in March, we argued that while Reform was the most trusted party on immigration, other policy issues were becoming more important to the electorate, and that immigration was declining in importance.

On both counts, this still seems to be the case.Reform is still the most trusted party on immigration, although the proportion of people saying they trust Reform has been slipping for a few months, and immigration is generally still on the decline as an issue of importance.The second reason we cited for Reform's decline was, for example,personal approval polling stemming.Again, this still seems to be the case.Opinium has suggested that Farage's net approval is sitting at minus 23%, seven points lower than in March, and the lowest Farage's approval rating has been since the 2024 general election.

The third reason recited for Reform's decline was the party nominally hitting their poll ceiling.Now, in our video from March, we relied on data from November to have a look at the difference between people saying that they would vote for each party to the number of people saying that they would consider voting for each party.This showed us how close each party was to their theoretical polling ceiling and, therefore, whether there was any potential for each party to rise further in the polls.We showed that reform was only one point from their theoretical ceiling in November.This was significantly closer than any other major party, demonstrating that they just had little room to grow, and that this might have been hurting their polling.YouGov has, in the last few weeks, published new polling that allows us to update this.

It, again, shows that reform is much closer to their poll ceiling than any other major political party, and that this, potentially, is contributing to their struggles in the polls.So, all in all, it seems that the factors we identified back in March are still hurting reform.What else accounts for their decline?Well, there are obviously two major updates since we last made this video.The Clacton by -election and Andy Burnham's coronation as Prime Minister.When it comes to the Clacton by -election, as we've already outlined in a number of other videos on this channel, despite it being an attempt to claw back some momentum for reform and sideline the Standards Committee, it's descended into a bit of a farce.

All the other major parties have opted not to field a candidate, and we're now in a situation where the only person Farage is really facing is Count Binface.almost certainly going to beat Camp Binface, the contest has not gone down well with the wider public.Only 16 % of people polled by Ipsos think that Farage was right to resign as an MP and stand in the by -election.74 %believe that the Standards Commissioner should be investigating Farage, and 33 % of people believe that Count Binface should win the by -election, compared to only 21 % who have said they'd prefer Farage to win.On top of this, the public don't seem to think that Farage has been honest about his finances.

According to YouGov, only 12 % of people think that he's been honest about his financial affairs, compared to 60 % who say that they don't think he's been honest.Making matters even worse is that, even among reform voters, only 40 % say that they believe Farage has been honest.So, not only is Farage's decision to resign and trigger a by -election gone down badly, but it's also kept stories about his finances in the news, likely hurting his polling even further.When it comes to the news about Andy Burnham succeeding Keir Starmer, it appears that this too has only worsened Farage's position.As we have explained in countless videos on this channel, Keir Starmer was a deeply unpopular Prime Minister.with his Ipsos approval rating, at times, showing him to be the least popular Prime Minister since the 1970s.

As such, when voters were asked who they preferred as Prime Minister back in May, 18 % of people said that they backed Farage, compared to 16 % that said that they backed Starmer.More recent polling, though, shows that a massive 30 % of people prefer Andy Burnham, around double the proportion of people, 16%, that said that they preferred Farage.Again, this is only making matters worse for Farage, demonstrating just how much more difficult his job will be now that a more popular politician has moved into number 10.So, all in all, both the Clacton by -election and Burnham's promotion have contributed to reform's decline.Additionally, though, there's a third factor seemingly starting to work against reform.The favourability of other parties on the right of politics.

Recent polling is starting to show that reform voters are increasingly willing to consider voting for other parties on the right.YouGov polling has shown that 43 % of reform voters have said that they're willing to vote for Restore Britain.allowing upstart political party headed by former president.MP Rupert Lowe.On top of this, Lowe holds a plus 20 % approval rating among Reform voters, which shows just how much of a threat Restore has become to Reform.While on its own this is already pretty bad, it's actually not just Restore that's posing a threat.

The Conservatives are also ticking up in the polls, and YouGov has again shown that 40 % of Reform voters would be open to voting Conservative, and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch holds a plus 22 % approval rating among their voters.Clearly then, it's not just events working against Farage at the moment.Reformer also losing their grip as the dominant party of the right.Perhaps then we could be witnessing the beginning of the end of Farage's hopes of winning the next election.

Greenland.For decades, it's been viewed as little more than a giant ice sheet on the edge of the world.A massive ice fortress that most of us only ever saw from 30 ,000 feet on a flight somewhere else.However, that ice is receding, and as it does, the world's superpowers are beginning to move in.At TLDR, we've spent almost 10 years explaining things from behind a desk, but some stories are too big for our studio.So to understand why this island, and the Arctic more generally, has suddenly become the most valuable real estate on Earth, We had to go there.

As you'll soon discover though, this isn't just a political briefing hosted from the cold.We're hiking through the wild, discovering melting icebergs, and uncovering the rusting remnants of secret military projects abandoned in the snow.

I used to think I understood what cold was.But I was lying to myself over three episodes.

We're asking What's the big deal with agreement from the scramble for rare earth minerals to the new battlefield for Washington?Beijing and Moscow we're camping outin the glaciers that are changing our climate, and discovering the country caught in the middle of this global tug of war.

This is funny to you, Jet.

It will be funny to you in the future.

Hello.

Hello, deep there.Jesus Christ.

That's the whale.

Bright whale.

Rather appropriately for the world's largest island, this is the biggest project we've ever taken on.A documentary about the beauty, power and future of our planet.Coming this summer exclusively to TLDR Party members.If you're not a TLDR Party member already, you can sign up right now.Members not only get access to too long documentaries like this one, but they also get access to the audio versions of every article in our magazine too long, each narrated by the writers of those articles, allowing you to listen along to it all.You also get access to our behind -the -scenes podcast, The Bullpen, access to our extra podcast, The Last Move, and The Last Word, our brand new news quiz, plus our brand new UK politics podcast, Andymonium.

Becoming a member costs £3 .99 a month, but for the very best deal, you should grab the Too Long and TLDR Party bundle.That way you get both our quarterly magazine Too Long, as well as access to all of the benefits of TLDR Party, for a very discounted rate.Plus, if you use code GREENLAND, we'll give you an extra £4 off your first bundle payment, making it basically the same price as a standalone subscription.Find out more and support the channel at toolong .news forward slash party.