Is the ‘gateway’ to the Donbas about to fall? | Ukraine-Russia war analysis

So the world has been somewhat distracted by the Iran war these last few months.Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been continuing apace.Is Russia actually on the verge of a strategic breakthrough?Well, many of the world's media have been suggesting over the last couple of months that Ukraine appears to be on the front foot in its battle.Not only has it taken more territory than it ceded, also Russian casualties seem to be greater than their ability to recruit.As a result of all of that, President Putin will be angry, he will be determined to inflict his own control over the conflict, and there have been widespread suggestions that he will mount some form of summer offensive.

It appears now that offensive is in the Donbass, in this one area that he hasn't yet seized.

And Kostiantynivka, of course, is the first of those fortress cities.But why are these fortress cities so important to President Putin and Zelensky?Well, the key is that if those were to fall, it provides a gateway for Russian forces to go into central Ukraine.And therefore, they would not be stopped.They'd take a lot more territory.As a result of which, even though President Putin has suggested that if Ukraine was to give those up, it might bring an end to the war, President Zelensky can't do that.

He can't hand the keys to central Ukraine back to President Putin.

But of course Ukraine has known this is going to be a Russian strategy, therefore it's got very good defences, it's very well prepared and lots of provisions to try to make this a long fight.

But is the Russian assault at the moment on Kostyantynevka likely to deliver a strategic breakthrough anytime soon?Well the answer to that lies, we have to look back in time slightly.If you remember back at the start of the war, President Putin was focused on seizing Bakhmut.It was over a year later that the Russian forces actually managed to secure that.cost over the last year and a half.Russian forces have been trying to seize Pokrovsk.

They've eventually taken that as well.Therefore, most military analysts believe it will be at least a year to be able to take each of these cities.And that will be incredibly slow, incredibly costly, and, of course, highly attritional.And if you look at a time lapse of the Russian forces as they've advanced since the start of the year, we can see it's incredibly slow, that they've been held back in their assault.literally only by the time you get to June that all of a sudden the Russian forces have finally managed to go and extend their grip around the outside of Kostiantynivka.But of course, that does not mean the city is going to fall any time soon.

And the other issue here is that's clearly the main effort for Russian forces.

If that's the case, then clearly Russia will have pulled forces from elsewhere around the country to focus on that.That will leave other areas vulnerable.And that's something that Ukraine will be able to capitalise upon.But what is going to be the Ukraine's strategy here?Well, the first thing they have to do is not get dragged into a war of attrition with Russia.Russia is the bigger force.

That will be very difficult for them to win.The three priorities seem to be they've got to address Russia's advances in Kostiantynivka.They're probably not going to be able to withstand that onslaught.What they need to do is make Russia pay a huge price for every step they take.The second one is to stop Russia's ability to fund the war.That means targeting their energy infrastructure.

Ukraine has been developing its long range and medium Ukraine.One of the ways they do that is obviously by the land route.The second one is by the Kursk road bridge.

Is this been effective?Well, difficult to measure in hard currency, but a high

road in the long term.So, where does that leave us at the moment?Well, there's no doubt that Russia is putting pressure on the front line, pressure that President Zelensky and his forces are withstanding.This summer offensive, President Putin will want to deliver strategic gains, otherwise there'll be profound questions for him to answer at the end of this year's fighting season.Meanwhile, for Ukraine, very much like Iran, they have got to find a way of keeping their head in the fight because they may not win this war, but as long as they don't lose, that will be considered strategic success.