'Moscow will burn': Ukraine's defiant warning after launching largest drone strike of the war

Moscow is under attack again after President Zelensky warned the city will burn in the wake of Ukraine's largest attack of the war.My name is Jerome Starkey.I'm the defence editor at The Sun newspaper.And this is Frontline, your weekly roundup of the most important news from the war in Ukraine.As we are recording this episode, there are reports that Moscow is under attack for the third time in a week, just hours after the most dramatic and largest drone and missile strike on the Russian capital, of the war.Some 900, nearly a thousand drones, according to Russian officials, were shot down between the 17th and the 18th of June.

Four missiles, they said, also shot down.But a number got through.And I expect many of you will have already seen the most extraordinary scenes from the southeastern edge of the city where the Moscow oil refinery, a major plant run by Gazprom Neft, was hit at least five times huge plumes of smoke, fires burning in the refinery, plumes of smoke so large that it really felt like a wall of thick black oily smoke rising over the southern edge of the city and blanketing some neighbourhoods.Reports of thick oily smoke dripping back down onto the city.And during that attack, one of the most spectacular images we saw was the lid of a large gasoline tank blowing off the tank as there was an explosion underneath it.Footage today has emerged suggesting that actually that explosion may not have been caused by a Ukrainian drone, but in fact was caused by a malfunctioning or misfired

air defense missile.A clip I've been looking at today appears to show a missile corkscrewing horizontally hitting that tank and exploding it and sending the lid flying skywards.In the 24 hours since, we've heard from Moscow's mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, who is saying that another 25 drones have been shot down today.So that suggests that the attack is continuing.And that large attack on the 17th, 18th that I was talking about, came 24 hours after a previous attack targeted the same place.plant and reports according to the Reuters news agency suggesting that the first wave of attacks on the night of the 16th 17th destroyed one part of the refining plant, the second attack targeting a different part of this plant.

We're going to talk about this attack or these attacks a lot in this episode because it's really important.This plant supplies around a third of the gasoline to Moscow.Gasoline and Jet A1 aviation fuel.It's just 10 miles from the Kremlin.So the very fact that Ukraine was able to strike it significantly and two days in a row, perhaps three days in a row, if that's what they're targeting again today, is extraordinary.It's a reminder of the leaps and bounds that Ukraine has made in terms of its long range strike capability.

Ukraine has managed spectacular long range strikes throughout the war.But what we've seen recently is the tempo and scale of these attacks increasing.The sort of audacity has been increasing as well, because before we saw these strikes on Moscow, we were seeing very similar strikes against refineries just outside St. Petersburg, so visible from St. Petersburg harbour.And of course, remember those attacks against the Ust -Luga portin the Baltics are hitting major Russian infrastructure, particularly oil and gas infrastructure, and in parallel, continuing to degrade the logistics support for Russia's armed forces.

So we've also seen, for example, this week, an ammunition dump hit in Belgorod and there was an oil storage site hit, I think it was in Krasnodar Krai in the south east.

Some speculation or analysis of what drones have been used in these attacks suggesting that they may have been the Sitchin or Bearmoth drones.These are delta winged drones, so in some senses like the Russian Shahids, but have these sort of telltale horizontal fins on the edge of those wings.That could be because those drones have technology which helps them evade Russia's air defences.That could be because of their range, their manoeuvrability.It could also simply be because they've managed to degrade Russia's air defences.I think there must be a combination of both.

It hasn't been explained by the Ukrainians exactly how they have done this, but They have owned it.President Zelensky very clearly saying that if Ukraine burns, Moscow will too.That's a really defiant message from President Zelensky.And I think the reason he was speaking particularly hawkishly, even by his standards, was because just before these strikes on Moscow, we saw a Russian attack on a thousand year old monastery on the banks of the river Dnipro.That was on the Kiev -Pechersk -Lavra monastery.Before we move on to what Russia has been doing, just want to look a little bit longer at the impact of the strike.

So this most recent targeting of the refinery in Kapotnia, that's the southeastern district in the southeast of Moscow.It's just inside the ring road.

It abuts the Moskva River as it flows.out of the city.Ukraine has hit eight out of the ten largest refineries in May.So in the previous month, fuel prices, depending on estimates, have risen between sort of four percent, but in some places as much as 40.Russian officials have launched an investigation into what they call price gouging because the prices in some petrol stations have been rising so much as a result of these strikes.We've seen rationing spreading to at least six Russian regions.

That's petrol rationing.If you go into a station, you're only allowed to buy perhaps 20 or 40 litres.I experienced that in the first days and weeks of the war in Ukraine when there was suddenly a massive shortage of petrol.Everyone was trying to flee from the frontline areas.

I know what it's like.It makes moving around very, very difficult.And similarly now in Russia, drivers reporting three hour queues.But these aren't in the far flung provinces.This isn't just in Crimea.This is on the main highway between Moscow and St. Petersburg.

So what we take from this is that the war is coming home to ordinary Russians.And that's always been an objective of the Ukrainians, not to kill civilians, but to make Russians understand that their country is at war, that it's being waged in their name.Because for many people in a tightly controlled media environment like Russia.They are inured perhaps to the realities and the horrors of what is happening on the front line, to the massacres being inflicted, both of their own soldiers who are being sent like cannon fodder into battle and of course on the Ukrainians.But by pushing their drones into cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, targeting infrastructure like these oil refineries and plants, which are essential to bankrolling the war effort.

Ukraine is achieving two things.They are degrading the Russian economy.They are choking the coffers.that Vladimir Putin needs to fund his war.

And they are also bringing that war home to ordinary people so they can see it, they can feel it in those plumes of smoke.

Another way they might feel it as well while we're on that is the chaos at the airport.So during these strikes, all four of Moscow's main airports have been shut down.They've had to close their airspace.

Final thing to say on the oil shortages, the Moscow Times reports that one of the shortages may be particularly significant at this time of year because we're coming up to both the summer holiday season, when many Russians who don't ordinarily use their cars ordinarily go on long journeys, may contemplate those sorts of journeys to holiday destinations to see families.

And of course, because we're coming up to summer harvest season, so farmers are going to need fuel to harvest their crops.And if the fuel prices if the fuel is scarce or the prices are high that makes both of those things significantly more difficult.Also this week Russia has claimed that Ukraine hit a bus, a civilian bus carrying a youth football team.These are again really uncomfortable claims we've addressed claims like this in the past.I think this one we have to be a bit more wary of.The reporting has been mixed.

It's very unclear what actually happened, but a drone appears to have hit a bus.A number of people injured.I think a couple of people were killed.There were children, civilian children, on the bus.Ukraine's SBU intelligence service says it has intercepted Russian reports saying that their own investigators have concluded that it was not a Ukrainian drone.But the Russians have certainly not made that public.

In fact, quite the opposite.They seem to be pushing this narrative of Ukrainian blame and some concerns, according to the Institute.for the Study of War, a respected think tank which analyses this conflict very, very closely, suggesting that Russia may be amplifying that narrative to justify a major strike on Ukraine.I think it's almost inevitable that we're going to see some sort of major Russian reprisal, not necessarily because of that strike on the bus, we don't know who was responsible, but simply because both sides have been escalating.

We've also heard reports from the Ukrainians that in Crimea, the spokesman for Ukraine's Navy has said that in Crimea, Russia's security forces are preparing for an amphibious landing.

This is interesting because you'll remember that last week we talked about how Ukraine had been choking the supply lines into Crimea.They'd be hitting a number of bridges in at least three areas to the north of Crimea that connects the peninsula to mainland Ukraine.That's created logistical problems both for people in Crimea, but also most acutely for soldiers north of Crimea who rely on Crimea for supplies.It's very interesting hearing the naval spokesman saying this.It sort of fits a narrative.

It builds perhaps concern among the Russians that Ukraine might be planning an amphibious landing.We have talked about this before.Amphibious landings are really, really difficult.

But by seeding these sorts of ideas, certainly what Ukraine will be doing is seeding that doubt in the minds of the Russians, perhaps forcing them to divert forces into defending, more forces into defending Crimea from that sort of attack, more resources into building up those defences if indeed they need reinforcing.

In the other direction this week, of course, Russia has continued its massive missile and drone bombardments.

About 1 ,600 missiles and drones fired at Ukraine over the last seven days, as reported by theair force.There hasn't been a lot of movement on the front line, a tiny bit around Konstantinovka, a little bit further north around Slovyansk, but nothing particularly significant.These lines are not frozen, but they are pretty sluggish, and the price for territory, the price in terms of lives, remains very, very high.

Outside Ukraine, on the political front, there's been a meeting this week of NATO's defence ministers, which was briefly attended by President Zelensky.And he was there in the midst of those strikes in Moscow.Britain has announced it will send another 150 ,000 drones, or rather buy 150 ,000 drones from Ukraine for Ukraine.

So that's effectively funding Ukraine's arms industry.That's on top of 120 ,000 that they've already bought.NATO Secretary General Mark Rutter was pretty stark in his conversations or his outlining his expectations of NATO allies to set what he called a clear path to 3 .5%.So that's getting NATO allies to spend 3 .5 % of their GDP on defence.This is a target which the alliance has agreed It felt like particularly pointed criticism towards Britain because, of course, you'll remember our defence secretary and our armed forces minister both resigned just over a week ago in protest at the fact that the Labour government, the embattled Labour government here in the UK, has been unable to set out that path.That was then amplified, that criticism was really then amplified by Pete Hegsdeth, the US Secretary of War, in a statement he gave to Congress.

absolutely berating allies for his words, free riding.And he was also very critical again of those countries that did not support America's war in Iran.It's his point of view.The American point of view has been made many times already.

would say is that I think true friends do not help their friends if that friend is about to commit an act of self -harm, and they certainly don't hold the knife.Historians are yet to decide whether or not this the American -led war on Iran has been a success, but I think certainly in the short term, apart from those people close to the White House who were trading on the oil prices, it has depleted Americans' missiles, it has demonstrated Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz.And I think it has knocked the image of American might while also clearly creating huge costs and uncertainty to the Gulf allies, America's Gulf allies around, so that's the UAE, that's Bahrain, that's Saudi Arabia and Qatar.One other thing worth mentioning on a slightly happier note is that at the Eurostory Arms Fair, a massive arms fair in Paris this week, the Ukrainian fire point stand had on large screens behind their missiles a a display of those strikes in Moscow.So not quite in real time, but moments after, as those fires were burning in Moscow, they were being displayed at that arms fair at the Firepoint stand.Firepoint, the company making some of Ukraine's most advanced weapons.

A reminder to people that Eurostory what this is all about, if that reminder was needed.And also, of course, a reminder about the capability of Ukraine's weapons.

Very briefly, two other things that have been interesting reports about Russian inaccuracy.One was an interview by Jack Watling, a Russia expert on the war in Ukraine, who I often read and quote and speak to.

He was talking about how whenever he goes to Ukraine, he looks at captured Russian maps.He said they rarely reflect the reality of what's happening on the ground.He gave two reasons.One is that

the traditional way of annotating maps in Russian military doctrine does not allow soldiers and commanders to describe the grey zone.

So there's a effectively, the language of annotation doesn't just doesn't have the vocabulary for the reality.And the other reason is that commanders on the ground exaggerate and lie about the progress they've made.They exaggerate it because they don't want to be punished or transferred into different units with more dangerous roles, relieved of commands or transferred into more dangerous roles.Another report that was quoted in the Moscow Times from an organization by Dallas Analytics, and I haven't come across Dallas Analytics before, but interesting because it was talking about the Oreshnik missile, that's the hazelnut, that's the intercontinental ballistic missile that Russia has fired twice at Ukraine, once at Dnipro and once at Lviv, saying that it's inaccurate, significantly inaccurate, because it uses a Soviet -era gyroscope which effectively isn't working as well as it should, could just be like 0 .5 of a degree out, but over the course of that missile's trajectory that could leave it 10 kilometers off target at the other end.Worth noting, worth keeping an eye on.

As ever, if you've got any questions, please do ask them in the comments below.Actually, I love reading them.Some of them really make me laugh.A lot of them really make me think.I do try and answer as many as I can, either on the show or I do get into the questions, into the comments and answer them there as well.

Three this week.Thank you very much for them.Question number one.As Roman Abramovich sort of emerges as an envoy to President Putin, is there any evidence that the Russian oligarchs are turning against their Russian leader.Firstly on Abramovich.Abramovich has played some role as envoy for a very, very long time.

this conflict.I think sort of different levels of prominence.But I think behind the scenes, Roman Abramovich, the former owner of Chelsea Football Club, has been acting as a conduit.I haven't seen any evidence that either Abramovich or other oligarchs are yet turning against Vladimir Putin.Clearly they're likely to be smarting because so much of their money, largely their looted money, is frozen in European banks but it's too early I think and perhaps over -optimistic to hope that they are turning on Putin yet.But that is a risk to him because these people have a lot to lose.

But Putin throughout his tenure has slowly been ratcheting up control over these people and has effectively made it known that if they want to continue their lifestyles and to continue having the wealth which they took from the Soviet state when it collapsed, then they have to remain feel to him.Question number two.Is Ukraine softening up Crimea for a beach landing?We've touched on this a bit already with that interview that Ukraine's Navy spokesman gave.I think what Ukraine certainly wants to do is to try and hold Crimea at risk, to seed that doubt in the minds of the Russian forces in Crimea, because that forces them to commit resources, forces and resources which cannot be used elsewhere.But an amphibious landing would be incredibly difficult and costly just cast your minds back to what you know about D -Day.

It was successful, but a lot of people died on the Normandy beaches.Question number three.

How come Ukraine can manage to exercise fire control over these logistics routes, particularly on the land bridge from Mariupol to the top of Crimea, when they are losing, simultaneously losing, terrain in Konstantinovka and other places like that in the closer battle?

It's a really good question, because fundamentally, on the one hand,hand I'm saying Ukraine's gaining superiority and yet on the other hand Ukraine's losing terrain and they don't seem to marry up.But fundamentally these are two different parts of the fight.In the close battle, Russia, the fundamental advantage Russia has is willing to sacrifice lives.So both sides fighting with drones, both sides creating these kill zones where almost anything that moves gets killed, but Russia happier to risk the lives of its soldiers to make those incremental gains, and Ukraine ceding that territory slowly after exacting a huge price from Russia.The logistics, the war, the medium range strikes which are choking logistics, nodes and routes, is a different type of campaign.

It's being fought with these medium range drones.

Fundamentally, the more Ukraine can succeed in choking those supply routes, the harder it will be for Russia to make those territorial gains by sacrificing its soldiers, because it won't be able to get the soldiers there, won't be able to get the food, the fuel, the ammunition to those men right on the front line.And that may also be why we have seen those territorial gains slowing to a snail's pace.

As ever, thank you very much for watching.Please do ask your questions in the comments below.And I've said this a couple of times before, if you want to follow more of what I do in terms of my defence coverage for The Sun newspaper, then you can follow me at Jerome Starkey on Twitter and Instagram or look for the stories on The Sun's website.