“Never Heard Anything So PREPOSTEROUS” | Andy Burnham's Plans | Keir Starmer Eyes Top NATO Job

...say a very good morning to Talks International editor.We love having her on.She won't be nasty to me.Isabel Oakshaw, good morning.

Good morning.Well, no boo -hoo for you.You're always really happy in the mornings.What's going on?

I am.I'm just not very happy about being 61 next week.I don't want to talk about it.

I don't.I think it's irrelevant.It's just a number.

And you're supposed to say you look very good.We'll do that again.You're supposed to say you look good.

You look amazing.I mean, I have to say, you look amazing.I had no idea that you were anywhere near that.I thought you were at least a decade younger.

Oh my God.Richard Tice, move out the way.I'm a coming.Isabel Oakeshott, Andy Burnham.I'm going to start with David Maddox, and I'm going to start with being honest to you, because I know you're always honest to me.There seem to have been a few rumours about Nigel Farage over the weekend.

There were a couple of newspaper articles.Is he exhausted?Is he worn out?Has the reform bubble burst or whatever, despite the fact of leading in 300 and whatever it is, polls?David Maddox, I put a scenario to him about Andy Burnham and said that if, with the political credit he obviously got at the moment with his 400 MPs.Has he got the balls to either stop the boats, cut the welfare bill, and or, genuinely, hand on heart, call a grooming gang inquiry?

Do any of the three or four big things that need doing in this country?Cut the benefits bill, you know.David Maddox said, I don't know.But like me, he felt that if he did one of those, it would make a massive difference.But he said that there was a poll a week ago, when Burnham was thinking, which saw a 6 % bounce.And he predicted, David Maddox, that by the autumn, Labour will have overtaken reform.

and within another few months so will have conservatives.He said there seems to be something wrong and it's all going backwards.I just wanted your take on that sweetheart to get balance.

Yeah, it's super interesting.I think it would be a completefiction to say that there isn't some soul -searching going on in reform at the moment because we've just lost a couple of elections.If you're not looking at why things didn't go as you wanted them to after you lose a by -election that you've described as the most important in a generation, then there's got to be something very arrogant about you as a party.party.So naturally, there is some soul searching going on about that.

I think that reform leadership is acutely conscious of the potential for Andy Burnham to naturally steal the limelight and some of the momentum and momentum is everything in politics.And one of the many things that Nigel is so very good at is keeping the momentum on the side of whatever campaign or party he's running.So we've seen that for the last two years, you know, and it's things like holding a press conference every week, you know, where he takes, I don't know, 40 questions, whatever it may be, new announcements, always kind of trying to keep ahead of the agenda.And so I think the party knows that there's a big challenge coming.Of course, the party can also see that Kemi Beydinoch is doing better.Although the party is Reform, I think, is reassured that whilst Kemi is doing better in terms of personal approval ratings, the Tory party lags well behind that.

So I think it's a challenging time for reform as we enter, in a couple of weeks' time, the sort of slower summer period.And then everything kicks off again in the autumn with party conference season.And, you know, I think reform has to go at things with a bang in the next few weeks in order to dispel this whole, oh, the Stephen King...is going out of reform, you know.There is a scenario, of course there is, where all three parties kind of meet around the mid -twenties mark in the polls.How much does that matter?

Well, it all comes down to whether or not there's going to be a general election in another few months.If there isn't, then, you know, I'm really not, I think reform leadership wouldn't be too panicked by the fact that Labour naturally is getting a bounce from a new Prime Minister?

Yeah, and I think, look, I don't know.You know I know, Nigel, I know Richard and you, and I've sort of watched it, and there's no doubt that Nigel and Richard and others are spreading incredibly thin at times.And, you know, Nigel, the main face people would say of reform, and I've read articles saying, you know, you need... help and change but you're talking you're right when you say about structure if you don't if you don't take an opportunity to look in the mirror and go we need to do this differently we need to do that and and let's not we should never forget how far reform have come in such a small space of time and so occasionally you know take stock and and come back stronger but I would say to counter everything that we've talked about this morning Isabel 313 continuous opinion polls and millions of Britons across this country, supporting a party that was brave enough to stand up and acknowledge the problems in this country that nobody else was talking about.

Yes, that's true, but it's not enough for the party to rest on its extraordinary achievements to date.You know, politics is a constant state of flux.It's so unbelievably unpredictable.Now, I thought reform, I'll hold my hands up, at the beginning of the Makefield by -election, I thought reform would win it.I hadn't been to the constituency myself, but my colleague Christianwas up there in the early days and it looked really winnable for reform, but things can shift so quickly, can't they?

I do believe that any burn and bounce will very soon dissipate.

I genuinely believe that thousands of people in Makefield voted to get Starmer out.No disrespect to the reform candidate or anybody else.A Burnham win was going to do that.The Labour Party have gone, oh my God, he beat reform by 9 ,000.He's the man to slay the dragon.That's what's happened in essence.

That's the truth, isn't it?

I think that's exactly right.Now, we don't know just how many people voted for Labour just to get Starmer out.We don't have that data, but it's a significant number.Now, it could be that it's not enough to kind of make an excuse, if you like, for reform not winning, but I think it would, if we knew the number that had done that, it would definitely take the shine a bit off the idea that Burnham is, you know, kind of almighty, all -conquering hero that can win these seats back for the North.I mean, here we have him today talking about a 10 -year strategy to kind of fix Britain.And I agree with him that it's at least 10 years.

I think it's probably longer than that.I think so much has gone wrong in such a deep -seated way.that it is going to take a very, very long period to put right again.But is he going to get 10 years?I would be astonished if he gets anything like that.

How long does a party need?If reform got elected, in your mind, you know far more than me, how long would you need to right the wrongs of this country?

Wow, there's a question.I mean, normally, what I think an incoming reform government would want to impress by doing some really symbolic things, never mind in years, but in the first few weeks, I think an incoming reform government would want to symbolically stop the boats in the first few days, you know, they would be ready to do that.Obviously, I can't speak for the party or know whether they have a plan that would enable stopping the boats within days, but I would have thought they would be aiming to come up with something like that.You know, deportations...

Instantly, to show that they're good to their word, is what you're saying.Burnham, we talked with you last week and you were saying you've known Andy for a while and we sort of, I described him as sort of the Boris Johnson of the Labour Party.There's undoubtedly going to be a bounce.But it is fair, is it not, to say, however you dress up, devolution to the north, mayors setting benefits cuts, blah, blah, blah.Every single Labour leader that I've ever known in my time has done one of two, well, two things.They borrow money or print money to pay out the people that got them to where they are and they've promised, most notably people in unions in the past.

And inflation hits 30 % and we end up broke.Well, we're broke already.And when I hear Louise Haig over the weekend, the transport secretary with the pink hair who got sacked for fraud, she's now back in the limelight with a Rachel Reeves bob that's deep Auburn.She says capital gains should be increased.We should relax the fiscal rules set by the chancellor, borrow more, and give more away.That's Labour's philosophy, but we're screwed financially already before they've started, Isabel.

It's insane.And you know, all these warnings that we're getting now about more taxes on the middle classes.I mean, I think when you're raising taxes, you've got to have a very clear answer to the question for what?What are the middle classes, so -called?And it's a very big and fluid bracket, basically, which extends to pretty much anyone who's not living on the state.What are the middle classes being asked to fund?

And what exactly, and here's a really important political question, are they getting in return for their endless sacrifice.And the reason so many voters are so angry at the moment is because they've seen their taxes already go up to punitive levels and they're not seeing anything in return.I think most of us are willing to pay good taxes, decent taxes, for fantastic public services or even for decent public services.You know, one way or another, States always get you.So even in regimes where there is ostensibly no income tax, you pay for things in another way.And you don't mind any of this, as long as what you're getting is of a high quality.

And unfortunately, politically, what has happened in the last 10 years, over the years of the Tory rule, has been that taxes have gone ever upwards on people who are working hard and in return they are seeing nothing but things getting worse.Whether that is the state of the streets on a local level, whether that's crime, whether that is their ability to get their children into good state schools, the best local state schools, whether that is the state of the NHS.None of this has got better and yet they keep being asked to pay more and more and more for declining public services and an ever -expanding pool of people that just don't want to work or don't have any skills.

Do you think that Burnham has the courage to go back to something I was talking about earlier, the political capital, toattack that welfare bill, to drill in the North Sea?Do you think he does or not?Or do you think he's your average archetypal socialist politician?

I don't actually think in his case it's a question of courage.I mean, I think he's shown courage.a fair bit of courage, taking the gamble he did, running for that by -election, which he might have lost.He's positioning himself as someone who's going to save the country.Well, that takes a lot of fair bit of guts, doesn't it?I mean, we can all sit here in our comfortable studios, you and me, Jezza, and critique from the cheap seat.

But it takes guts to put yourself forward.It's not that he doesn't have the courage to do these things.It's that he doesn't believe in it.

This is what people are saying.How do we know what...But then I sort of had a tad of...People will attack me. I sort of thought this morning, I walked in, you know, who the hell does he think he is giving a prime ministerial address at 11 .30?The leadership hustings haven't even opened.He's right up...

And then on Friday they were going, who does he think he is when we don't even know what he stands for?To even think that he could be prime minister?I was thinking, well, he's got to say it at some point.It'll be really interesting, though, that bounce that Maddox talked about.I get that.But it'll be interesting to see how The other big news story of the day, and I just know you will have so much to say here.

I can't believe this, right?Tell me if I'm missing the point.We all know we've got a boats crisis.We know that nobody seems to be able slash willing.That's the thing to stop the boats.Shabana Mahmood.

And of course, you've got this whole thing at the moment where all these vipers in the same nest are all rushing around trying to kill each other so they get the job.Apparently, Burnham's not as sympathetic on immigration as perhaps Shabana Mahmood is.So she's come up with an idea over the weekend.It says the public should have a say in asylum appeals as ministers look to replace judges.So her idea is to use ordinary, hundreds of ordinary members of the public.Isn't it lovely being called ordinary?

Being trained up as a judge.because there's a record 20 ,000 foreign offenders avoiding deportation and perhaps an even more impressive figure this morning is there's 4 ,300 who've been deported and have found their way back.My problem with this is so many -fold, right?You're basically saying, I don't trust the judges to pass the sentence that I think.So if I was the Home Secretary, I'd change the bloody law so that the judges knew exactly that they shouldn't be conned with terribly stupid excuses about why somebody should say common sense.She thinks, let's train people.

Do you not think in this DEI -obsessed world, Isabel, that some of those might end up being illegal migrants who have been trained to be adjudicators to make sure it's nice and balanced.

Well, we've got so many illegal migrants that would probably happen just on the law of averages.Precisely.I think it's a terrible idea.It is an absolutely terrible idea.It's a complete acknowledgement of defeat, isn't it?When your system has become so overwhelmed, you're thinking of just farming it out to every Tom, Dick, Harry, Sue and Charlotte to adjudicate.

I mean, and Mohammed as well.Honestly, words fail.How about the government just does the job?What they're elected to do is control our borders, not subcontract our borders to ordinary people who may have a range of political views and backgrounds.We elected them to control our borders, to keep us safe.So get on with doing that.

It's a number one priority.And don't expect others.to be trained up to do the job for you, honestly, for goodness sake.

I mean, it is almost unbelievable, not as unbelievable as the final thing I want to talk to you about today, and I want the camera on Isabel Oakeshott's face.I don't want to look at this footage.I need it on Isabel's face, if I could please.

No fear, no pressure.then.

Imagine this scenario, right?You lose the prime ministerial ship of this country because one of the biggest criticisms from your Defence Secretary and Armed Forces Minister who resigned is that you don't have the wherewithal, the desire or the will to protect your own people and you wouldn't find the money to increase our defence.Not a week after you have to resign humiliatingly in front of your wife and child and three other people because Rachel from next door wasn't around.You're letting it be known that you'd like to be the next Secretary General of NATO.Just, just, just, I'm not sure how that works.You're going to basically go around Europe saying to countries, I need more money from you for defence.

Really?Well, you didn't spend a bloody penny, Starmer, so you can do it.He wants to be, look at her face, he wants to be the Secretary General of NATO, Isabel.

My God.Look, they all seem to think they can be Secretary General of NATO.Is it just that there aren't any other plum EU kind of jobs?I know that NATO is not the EU, but normally, Starmer's kind of reflex would be to see if he could get some EU job.So maybe there aren't many of those at the moment.So he's thinking, well, maybe I can run NATO.

I've never heard anything so preposterous, frankly.

He likes to prosecute troops, remember?Remember the Troubles bell and Legacy outrageous?

He's completely unqualified for that job.It's an incredibly important job.NATO is, without it, you know, so many serious dangers will be, that we already have and we're already facing, will escalate.You know, NATO is in a perilous position as it is.We know that Donald Trump kind of blows hot and cold, doesn't he, when it comes to NATO?this incredibly important alliance.

And the last thing we need is some total muppet in charge of it that can't even run the defense system of his own country, never mind start trying to organize all the many, many member states there are, most of whom don't know how to pay enough into it either.

It's absolutely true.You've never been to a darts match, have you?

No.To think about that, but no.

No, one of the biggest chances, Keir Starmer, that was quite famous.

Yeah, I do know about that.

How long do you think would it take with Burnham in power for them to be singing, come back Starmer, all is forgiven, come back Starmer, because we are about to see a massive shift to the left, aren't we?

It's terrifying, Jezza, but that's for that reason that I just don't think this bounce is going to last very long.I give it three to six months, absolute maximum, and then I think the country will be absolutely up in arms as it has been for two years now.

Margaret in Birmingham says, um, good morning to Isabel, Jez.I really hope Nigel recharges his batteries and keeps fighting.The bounce will be over by Christmas.I've seen it all before.I'm going to finish with a joke, uh, Isabel Oakes shots, because I know you will use this at those high -end dinner parties you go to.

I don't go to any of them.

No.Um, so a Blairite a brown knight and a Corbynite get in a taxi and the taxi driver...

Have you heard the joke as well?I think I have yeah carry on.

The taxi driver says where do you want to go Mr Burnham?

Oh yeah there we go yes I had a second there but yes I've heard that it's a great it is a really good political observation joke it's not exactly belly laugh funny is it but no if i wanted to make you laugh i'd take my shirt off but i'm not doing that on telly uh there's a promise well you see you've ignited something now

See, ready?I'm going to read this to you.Hope the birthday card is the first one there.Posted Friday.Also there for Christian, the team, says Mags.But here's the point.

Pete says 61.Next week, Jez, only 19 years away from being 80.Brilliant.Reg says anyone could look that good at the tender age of 61 with the amount of you frozen your face with.Great.Isabel Oakes up.

Stop bloody lying.Jeremy Kyle does look 61 and not a day younger.That's from the woman who disagreed about Harry and Meghan.Isabel Oakes, I love you loads.Thank you so much indeed.As ever, Talks International.

We love having her on.