New Alberta Pipeline Deal Could Change Canada’s Future | Brian Lilley

The federal and Alberta governments have advanced a climate and energy agreement that could see construction on an oil pipeline to the West Coast starting as early as September of 2027.To chat about this and other topics is political commentator with the Toronto Sun and BCN contributor, Brian Oli.Brian, welcome back.Thanks for being here.

Thanks for having me.

Okay, so Brian, you said this deal between the feds and Alberta brings many wins for Premier Danielle Smith, but you have some concerns about whether this actually moves things forward.Why?

She was very strong in her news conference and social media posts over the weekend, detailing all the different wins that Alberta racked up for this.And so, you know, some of her critics saying, well, you didn't get anything for this.I would argue that she did.But the question is, did she get enough?Look, Mark Carney is still committed to net zero.He's still insisting that the Pathways carbon capture and storage program be done in tandem with any future pipeline.

The industrial carbon tax will not be as high as it was, at least for Alberta.And that could be a problem we'll talk about in a minute.But the simple fact that we're talking about a decision by September 1st, 2027 leaves me a little cold, Jeanette.Prime Minister Carney said we need to act big, think bigger, move at speeds not seen in generations.This is moving at Ottawa speed.By the time we get to a decision, which we assume will be yes, but I mean, it could be no.

Who knows what consultations will do?Who knows what will come forward?But assuming it's yes, that will be two and a half years after he won an election promising to do the very type of thing that he's taking two and a half years to do, you know, at speeds not seen in generations.That quote was from election night 2025, April 28th, 2025.And now we're talking about, we'll have a decision by September 1st, 2027, and then construction and completion will be in the early 2030s.That's too long.

That is simply too long.

Right.And then now we have B .C.'s premier, David Eby.He's already raising concerns about Alberta having a lower industrial carbon tax.And Brian, you are now predicting that every other premier could ask for the same thing.So what will that process look like?

Well, which premier is going to say, you know what, I'm good with my jurisdiction having a carbon tax of $170 per ton by 2030, but Alberta, it's fine to have a carbon tax of $130 effective rate by 2040.I mean, you're going to be looking and saying, well, wait a minute, that's a competitive advantage.I mean, forget the fact that why are we doing this to ourselves?We're the only major oil producing country imposing a carbon tax on ourselves.Now we're going to impose it in different ways in different parts of the country.If I'm a manufacturer looking at expanding in Ontario, I might just say, well, wait a minute.

I can get a major competitive advantage by setting up shop in Alberta.And if you're Daniel Smith, that's great.You want that, you want those jobs, and that's good for your province.But David Eby is correct.Well, wait a minute.We've got to all be paying this.

Why do they have to pay something less?This is a problem that Mark Carney is going to have to address.My guess is that eventually everyone will end up at the same lower carbon tax.We should just not be imposing this upon ourselves.But, you know, Canadians do seem to like punishing our own economy while blamingthe Americans for all of our woes.

Right.And, Brian, despite your reservations, polling is showing that federal liberals with, showing them with increased support right now.So including right here in Alberta, which has not been kind to the liberals in past years.So do you think that the Kearney liberals would pick up more seats in this province if an election were held today?

No doubt.In Calgary, in Edmonton, maybe some other spots across the province, they would be picking up seats.You know, several polls have shown the Kearney Liberals trending higher than they did in the last election.I think they got about 26 % in the last election.That got them two seats, one in Calgary, one in Edmonton.I think that they would be picking up several more.

Leger had them, I mean, the Conservatives were clearly far and above.the liberals in the latest Leger poll for Postmedia, which is my employer.But the Carney liberals, I think they edged up as high as 41%.At that point, they're picking up a bunch of seats in Alberta.So despite my reservations, despite the reservations of many in the industry, people are feeling like the prime minister is listening to the grievances of the province and acting.How that's going to play out in the Alberta separation referendum, if that goes ahead, we don't know.

But he's getting kudos for doing something, even if in my view, in the view of many others, it's not enough and it's far too slow.

Far too slow, huh?Seems to be a theme today.slowly moving.Okay, Brian, the Americans have suspended a joint panel on defense.And when they did it, the official in charge pointed to the prime minister.Mark Carney is a Davos speech.

So what can you tell us about this?

So this is supposed to be thePermanent Joint Panel on Defense, and it was established in 1940 in Ogdensburg, New York.That's a border town just south of Ottawa, a meeting between Franklin Delano Roosevelt and William Lyon Mackenzie, or Mackenzie King.1940 until now.This has been going on.It's a forum where Canadians and Americans get together and discuss joint defense needs.

And this is before the Americans even joined the Second World War.This was set up.It was while the Second World War was going on, but before the Americans joined it.this is not a body that most Canadians know anything about, it's not a body that we ever hear anything about, it's not like NORAD or NATO, but it is symbolic and it's a signal from the Americans that they are upset.So speaking to Canadians who are in the know with what's going on in Washington because they're there or they're there frequently, there is a sense that The Americans just don't know if we are a reliable partner still.Yes, we can have the argument.

Well, they started a trade war.How dare they?How dare they question us?The start of the trade war with the Americans, which they don't view as a trade war, by the way, they view it as, you know, an attempt to rebalance trade.And we can agree to disagree on that, but that's how they view it.They look at us and they say they can't believe the level of anti -Americanism.

And I've heard that from Democrats as well.Democrats who have worked in and out of this country for years who say, you know, they've seen it bad before, but never this bad.The Americans are pausing this in part because they say, are we even going to be a partner anymore?Or are we looking to align ourselves with China and Europe so much and withdraw from the United States?that we no longer can be relied upon.The Americans and others have already excluded us from things like Five Eyes because we weren't reliable.

That happened years ago under the Biden administration.And so this is an extension of that.

Okay.Let's move on to a policy here.You know, there's another attempt by the Kearney government to change laws around how police access your information.So police are saying that it's a needed update that they need for the digital age, but cell phone companies and tech giants are warning that your privacy will be compromised.So where is the truth here, Brian?

Well, probably a bit of both, as is often the case.So yes, the law needs to be updated.You talk to anyone in law enforcement and they will say it takes far too long to be able to get information on people that are engaged in these scams where they steal money from seniors or child exploitation, online crime.that they need a better way to get at this.And Canada, they say, is a laggard.We are well behind other countries in updating our laws for the digital age.

That's all true.What the tech giants are saying is this law goes too far.And in fact, last week at committee, or sorry, it was two weeks ago now at committee, the head of government relations for Meta, which owns Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, They showed up and they said, look, we are completely fine with the first part of the law.We'd like to see a couple of tweaks, a couple of amendments, slight changes to the law.But the second part of the law goes too far.And we are not sure that we will be able to offer our encrypted services like WhatsApp is supposed to be an encrypted end to end service.

They're not sure they'll be able to offer that.Apple has said that they may need to stop offering some services to customers here in Canada, which they did in Britain.They cut off some services in Britain earlier this year due to a similar law.Signal, which is another encrypted messaging app, says they will just leave the Canadian market.And there's a Canadian VPN company that has said, they will withdraw from the Canadian market completely.So their headquarters here, all of their staff are here, all of their servers here, and they're saying they will need to move.

So you've got all the tech companies on one side saying, this law goes too far, we need to change it.And we've got Minister Gary Anderson on the other side saying, I don't think you understand the law.When it comes to understanding the law on an issue like this, I'm going to say the tech giants probably have it right.Are they right in saying the government goes too far, I think perhaps, and the government should come to the table and at least discuss with them.But saying they don't understand the law, these are the biggest tech companies in the world with legions of lawyers.And then you've got Minister Anders -Andersen.

I'm sorry.This does not compute.

Right.OK.Brian, looks like the Snowbirds are on a farewell tour.This is kind of sad.The iconic Air Force aviation team based out of Moose Jaw will get an upgrade to their current jests, but it won't happen for years.So what can you tell us?

Yeah, this is going to be their last season going around the country to air shows.And I don't know about you, but I've been amazed by the Snowbirds many times over my life.They've been going on for close to 60 years, which, believe it or not, is older than me.And so, you know, even as a young boy, watching them go up and doing their aerial acrobats, you know, just so amazing.Such joy.spread to Canadians coast to coast to coast on that.

But the jets, the Tudor jets that they've been flying in are at the end of their lifespan.In fact, they're probably well past their lifespan.and government has been dragging its feet on getting replacements.There was a horrible accident a couple of years ago, there were calls for replacements then, nothing happened.Well, National Defense Minister David McGinty has now announced that yes, they will be getting replacements, new jets are going to be ordered, but that won't happen until early 2030s.We don't know for sure when, you know, these things are always fluid, but we're going to see a four to five year span at the least where the snowbirds are not in operation.

So a sad day for folks that like to go to air shows, folks that like to, to see Canada, uh, you know, Canadian pride on display, but you know, at least they're not saying, well, we're just going to get rid of them now.They will continue.but they're going to take a multi -year pause.

Oh, interesting.At least they're coming back, hopefully, fingers crossed.And like you said, it is so nostalgic, isn't it, Brian?Because it brings back memories from when we were kids, and it's intergenerational.Grandparents are there with their little ones.

They're at the Toronto Air Show every year, and I haven't gone the last while.This year, I'll be making sure that I head down when the Canadian National Exhibition is on and the Air Show is on.I'll be making sure that I head down to to watch them.I'm assuming they're on the schedule for this year.They better be.

Brian Lilley, political commentator with the Toronto Sun.Thanks so much for joining us today.Appreciate it.

Thank you.