New Poll: The Public Is Turning on Farage

Hi, my name's Phil.I like talking about politics.So we can see that there's increased scrutiny for Nigel Farage.We can see that he's handling it very badly.We can see that he's losing confidence.But can we see whether the general public are noticing?

Not just those who are politically engaged, but the general voting public.Well, according to Opinion, Nigel Farage basically dropped from minus 19 approval rating to minus 26 in the span of the first week of July.This coincided with the revelations about more undeclared funding, his close association with the convicted fraudster, his ham -fisted attempt to cover up the news of criminal investigations by triggering a by -election, and the news that Nigel Farage is now trying to claim he's making a serious point by spending a quarter of a million quid of public money on a popularity contest with a bloke wearing a bin on his head.And the thing about approval ratings, to bear in mind, is that the actual number, OK, does have some impact on voting habits.A genuinely popular leader has an easier time getting voters to turn out for them than for one who's simply seen as the best of a bad job.But the most important approval rating is the relative approval rating.

Keir Starmer is, by some distance, the least popular of all the current major party political leaders who operate across Britain.But this time next week, Keir Starmer will be the sixth person to become an ex -prime minister in the last 10 years.This time next week, Nigel Farage will be the party leader with the lowest approval rating and by a significant margin.Interestingly, Opinion reckon Burnham's rating is negative and below that of Ed Davey and Kemi Badnok.So he's going to need to make sure his summer of public engagement is a powerhouse performance.but eyes on the prize.

And the key contest from a general election point of view is between Andy BurnhamNigel Farage.Because when it comes to those who vote in elections as if it's a presidential system and they put a lot of store by the leader.You know, when it comes to those approval ratings for the leaders, it's the head to head between the leaders who can credibly become prime minister after the election, which matters the most.And right now, Burnham is 19 points ahead of Farage.If Burnham can improve his rating and if Farage sinks lower due to the piling scandals and investigations, This could add another layer of pressure onto Reform UK.

Consider just how much money Christopher Harbourn alone has doled out to Farage's project.£5 million to him personally, for reasons unknown, but something to induce him to stand for Parliament, which would be illegal.But he has donated a total of £25 million to the Brexit party in Reform UK over the last few years.That is a major investment in a project clearly designed to achieve regulatory changes to benefit his business interests because Nigel Farage became crypto's poster boy after receiving the money.Earlier on, I imagine the aim was to help Farage steer the Conservative Party towards more extreme policies, something he was successful at.Now they think they can get Farage himself into Downing Street.

That is why the money has really ramped up, because I say £25 million, over half of that, I think, has been donated in the last year.So that's why I think the money's really started coming out since Reform UK took the top spot in the polls, because they now think they've got a bigger prize on offer.But what if the polling for Farage and Reform UK starts tumbling?Farage lost eight points in a week, as I say, but Reform UK also slipped down a couple of points in that same period, according to this poll.If Burnham can pile on the pressure by making Labour look a better prospect to dissatisfied voters, if there's fewer reasons to vote Reform UK, we could start to see a spectacular reversal.And these things happen.

I mean, you look at the way the polls flipped wildly in 2021, for example.It's not unusual during politically intense times.And as I said at the weekend, the second half of 2026 is going to be a politically intense time.We should also be aware that this is not a blip for Farage.This is the start of a lot of shit coming his way.I remember back in early 2022 when Boris Johnson's supporters thought it was just a rough period and he would ride it out.

No mate, I said, not only was Partagate a really bad scandal, but more scandals would keep coming.And they did.In the end, it was the Chris Pincher scandal, sometimes known as Bojo scandal number 643, that technically sunk him.Similar thing with Farage.He can't be forced out like Johnson was.Like, if Nigel Farage wants to ride it out, he will be allowed to.

But that doesn't matter, because if he does, he'll destroy his party's credibility and have to increasingly hide out in his private clubs because he clearly doesn't like it when journalists keep mithering him about the increasing charge sheet of dodginess.Some of the investigations, especially the criminal investigations now, they may conclude in Farage's favour.He will use those moments to try and claim some sort of victory and draw a line under the whole thing.But even that might be difficult.Like, how does he claim vindication if the establishment says, oh yeah, you've got no case to answer?Because he insists that the establishment are making up investigations against him.

So why would they not just charge him?But even when he gets the odd bit of respite by learning of an investigation ending without him facing any further action, there will still be others ongoing.He will claim that the establishmentwill just keep making up new investigations to replace the old ones, but this doesn't appear to be washing with the public if the dip in polling is anything to go by.But of course we have to be careful about getting too excited about a single data point.But if there's to be a trend over summer, then come say September, we might be more confident that Reform UK are on a downward spiral.

And they have their party conference in the first week of September, so that'll be a good time to take stock.Now, imagine if Farage wins his by -election, but not by the dominant margin he really should against nothing but joke candidates.Imagine if Burnham has an absolute flyer during the summer recess.Imagine if the polling is even worse in September for Reform UK than it is now.Will Nigel Farage put on a triumphant speech at the party conference as he's been used to over the past couple of years?No.

I mean, yes, he will hail the gains in the May elections, but I can see him spending most of his speech airing his grievances, whining about the pressure he's been put under, complaining about the unfairness of it all, claiming to be the most persecuted person in history.Perhaps he'll even start wearing orange slap on his face.This is Andy Burnham's mission this summer.Get Farage and Reform UK falling in the polls.It doesn't have to be a demolition job.We can't expect approval to collapse in a few weeks.

But get the downward trend established.Get it fixed in people's minds that they're on the way down, and the pressure will mount on Farage.Restore Britain and their allies will push him on one side.Burnham can push him on the other.journalists and commentators will get free clicks out of reporting on it all because I'm going to guess Farage will be too stupid to stop giving us all free material with his childish rants.And what do you imagine the mega donors who have funded this project will think of it all?

They thought they had a decent chance of getting a traitor to his own country into number 10.That's why the moneystarted rolling out really quickly.A puppet who would do whatever they wanted.A pound shop Trump, but even more compliant.I don't think it's realistic to expect to collapse rapidly, but it is very possible that 2027 becomes the year Reform UK loses its lead.

From there, the momentum could cause them to genuinely implode.It needs more than further reporting on Farage's scandals and him raging about it.There must be pressure from the outside as well, chiefly from Labour, I feel, because I don't think Badenoch's even trying.I mean, after all, why would she?She has somehow found herself polling as the least unpopular leader of the five main parties active across Britain.So she's not exactly going to feel the need to step up her game, is she?

So it's all down to Andy Burnham, really.We'll see over the next few months if he's got it in him.If he does, and he's given us encouraging signs so far, but if he can actually make people feel things are moving as prime minister, which won't be easy, but if he can, The next 12 months could be spectacular.What do you think?Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.Please subscribe to the channel for more content.

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