Oberst Reisner: Warum Putin seine Angriffe auf die Ukraine verschärft | ZDFheute live

For the analysis is now with me Oberst Markus Reisner.He is the head of the officer training at the Theresian Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt.Hello Mr. Oberst Reisner, nice to have you here.

Good evening, greetings from Wiener Neustadt.

We would like to talk to you directly about the question of the stream at the beginning.This use of the Oreshnik missile during this violent wave of attacks on Ukraine on the weekend.Is this, in your opinion, a sign of Russian strength or exactly the opposite?Did Russia show that they are weak if they have to act with such a big gesture, with such a big attack?

Let's summarize what we usually do, and we have to realize that this is not the first use of a Horeshnik missile, but in the past we also had a use of a Horeshnik missile twice.And then you have to look at the background.The first time, the trigger was the fact that it was allowed in the two administrations at the time that Russian territory at Kursk would be attacked by further American weapons systems.And that was the trigger for the first use of a Horeshnik, and there was no further attack of American weapons systems on Kursk territory.The second time was already this year, when Trump made it official that the CIA supports Ukraine in the transfer of target data.And also the USA started with the detainment of Russian tankers.

And here we saw again the second time an Oreshnik.And that was also a clear threat to Russia.And the third time was now this operation, where two Oreshnik missiles were used by President Zelensky.And we see again that it is not so easy for the Russians to imagine this, because the trigger was of course the heavy air strikes of Ukraine on Russian cities, especially on Moscow.And that's why the Russians clearly set this sign, the symbolic effect on Europe, and that's why they chose this medium -range missile Oreshnik, because we know that the European defensive capability, which the strategic missiles have,level is concerned, is very marginal.

Let's take a look at a few facts from this Oreshnik missile to understand what it is, why it may be heavier than other missiles.The Orezhnik rocket has a range of up to 5 ,000 kilometers.It can fly more than 12 ,000 kilometers per hour.And it could, this is our third point, be used for a planned armament with multiple launchers, conventional or nuclear.It could.Now we have a question for you directly in the stream.

Is it possible that there are no launchers at all for the Orezhnik rocket, neither atomic nor conventional?

It can be assumed that these explosives already exist and that Russia would be willing to use them.But you must not forget that this is a clear threat measure, as well as in the past, and should serve above all to deal with this danger and discuss it, and not about what, for example, is happening at the front right now, where there is no further advance of the Russian troops.That is, we see here that the information is being played on very specifically by a weapon system that, admittedly, represents a real threat.But the goal of the Russians is actually fear and horror.to cause, as in the past, always then, when it did not go well for the Russians on the front.

And why did the Oreschnik now, when it was used, only do relatively little damage during this wave of attacks?

This is due to the fact that the selected multiple explosive head, which the Russians used, is not an explosive head in the way we might imagine it to be.That means that it has the effect of explosion, but in principle there are six types of non -kinetic bodies of effect that cause damage due to the blast of the shears.We were able to search for it after the attack and also during the previous attacks, the extent of the damage.So we have 36 pieces that were hit here by these throwing bodies.Each has caused a crater of two meters deep and three meters wide.This is comparable to the effect that a Russian Garand 2 drone causes.

That is, we have seen the use of 36 pieces of Garand 2 drones in a relatively limited space.This is not devastating.Of course, it can cause damage, but it shows that the Russians wanted to show that they were using these rockets, not that they were using explosives.

And what signal did Russia want to send with the use of the Orezhnik, but also with the entire wave of attacks from the weekend, except now revenge?So what signal and to whom?

Let me be clear, this attack was not a surprise.I also called a Ukrainian comrade before the attack, who predicted that she would expect this attack in the next few days.And that's exactly what happened.the trigger of this attack.And then we have to look back a little bit into the past, namely at the beginning of May.You may remember that the Russian parade was scheduled for May 9th.

Russia was afraid that this parade would be disturbed by the further attacks of Ukrainian drones.They then tried to instrumentalize the American president by offering him a ceasefire.which would be feasible if the Ukrainian president would agree.He first opposed it, but then he also agreed.And then it came to the first serious attack of the Ukrainians after the end of the hostilities on Moscow.And Moscow then responded with reproach, and Moscow had to explain itself above all to its own population.

Because the big narrative that is used here again and again is that the special operation, that's what the Russians call it, this war in Ukraine is not taking place in Russia, but quite far away.And because the Ukrainians manage to send these drones to Moscow, they need an explanatory model.And that's what Russia delivers.On the one hand, by declaring that it is the NATO's fault for these attacks, because it supports Ukraine, but on the other hand, it also delivers the condition that one could even confess, by doing much worse than Ukraine can do.So we see here in the information space, carried out on a strategic level, an exchange of blows that serves to intimidate the others, but also specific Europeans, because the Russians know that European companies of course support Ukraine in the construction of those drones that they have attacked again and again in the last few weeks.

This threat, this escalation, of course, but there is always an escalation in this war.Does it sound to you as if there would be a resumption of negotiations with the USA, with Ukraine in doubt, as if that would be realistic from the Russian side?

And the tragic thing is that the USA has actually been justified that it has withdrawn from the peace negotiations and will only get involved again when the two conflict parties are ready for these negotiations.That's not good news.However, this shows that there is a certain confidence in the United States, especially considering that the United States is currently facing the Iran conflict.What we can see is one of the interesting statements on the one hand by President Zelensky, who said that it may well be that the war will come to an end at the end of the year, and even President Putin said on the eve of the celebrations of 9 May that the war could come to an end.What is the background?This can be clearly addressed.

On the operational -tactical level, both sides have to determine, the defender and the attacker, that they actually have no means to overcome this path in the war leadership, this drone war that we are now seeing, which has created a death zone of 50 km in width, which both sides can hardly overcome, which benefits the defender, but makes the attack incomparably more difficult.And what is happening now is that we are trying to escalate on the strategic level through these air attacks and each side hopes to force the other into its knees to have a possible result at the end of the year.in order to avoid that the war would cause sustainable damage in the economies of Russia, for example, or in the Ukraine.Key word, collapse of the front.

We will switch to Ukraine in a moment, then continue talking to you, because the reason is that Russia is now threatening again.Threatening with further attacks, foreigners, embassy staff, diplomats.They should leave Kiev, it says from Moscow.How serious do you take this threat?

Of course, it is quite serious.But from my point of view, nothing special is happening now.But if you look closely, you have to realize that the Russians are already threatening Ukraine will attack with about 150 to 200 drones.These are, above all, the Garand 2 drones, whose explosive power we have briefly described before.And we see these heavy air attacks every 5 to 10 days.The last air attack was also a heavy air attack.

Now only because the Russians have used these 2 aircraft carriers.This means that the Russians are trying to escalate on the strategic level, because they are in an apathetic situation on the operational -tactical level.And they can do that through these attacks.We have to know that Russia is supported by countries like China, and China makes it possible for Russia to maintain a production rate of launchers and ballistic missiles, which makes it possible for them to carry out these attacks.And of course these attacks have an effect.You will see that at the latest when the Ukrainian president forced to write a letter to the American president, in which he emphasized in every paragraph how important it would be to get these new petro -missiles that have been produced, because they are in a situation where they have managed to stop the Russians on the front, more or less, but they have hardly any means against the strategic air defense of the Russians and they need these petro -missiles.

And that also shows that it is not going so well for Ukraine, as one would imagine, and that it is getting very close.

What would interest me right now, after the conversation with the correspondents, what would it take, in your opinion, for Russia to be willing to negotiate at all?Do you see opportunities there?

Allow me to answer this question in a comment to what the previous speakers said.And I'll tell you this very clearly, I'm not saying this as an officer or military member, I'm not saying this as an Austrian, I'm saying this as a European.It won't help Ukraine.that the Europeans negotiate about who is allowed to negotiate, but what helps Ukraine is that it makes it possible that Russia does not have a chance at any point, whether it is strategic, operative or tactical, to achieve success against Ukraine.And for this it needs, on the strategic level, keyword air attacks, air defense missiles.That means that in Cyprus we would actually have to discuss a new initiative to start, who in Europe, in what extent, air defense missiles, ...produces weapons that can keep up with the Petro system, like the MPT for example, and that would have to be delivered to Ukraine in large quantities.

And these are purely defensive weapons.So for everyone who says, for God's sake, the escalation is right in front of the door, no.You help Ukraine with defensive weapons.to prevent the attacks of the Russians so that the Russians have no advantage.And Ukraine knows, despite the positive news, that it has the chance to prepare for the next winter this summer.And if it doesn't do that, and if it can't do that, then the next winter will be even harder than the last winter.

So you have to address this point very clearly.

We'll talk about defensive weapons in a moment, but the question from Rainer still fits here in our stream.Every day of war costs life, resources and an incredible amount of money.Wouldn't it be conceivable that Donbass and besieged areas would become something like an independent region?What is your opinion on this?

Of course, he's absolutely right.It would be great if diplomacy would finally gain space, because then the death would stop.But let's listen carefully to what is being said.Many say that President Zelensky is to blame for why there are no negotiations or a result.That's not true.President Zelensky said last year, okay, we understood it.

We will probably not be able to recapture and free Ukraine in its old form, but we want at leastwant the front to be frozen and we at least don't want the Russians to advance with one jump behind our last defensive positions.That's what he says.So he has put a maximum compromise on the table.Now, of course, everyone is wondering why nothing is happening.The reason is because the Russians are simply not ready for it and say, no, we are not ready to go into this, but we want to have fulfilled our maximum requirement and that is at least the entire ton that belongs to us.

We are one step behind the last Ukrainian defense positions and the Russian calculation is, if there are no security guarantees, then we wait a few years, arm our forces and attack further towards Dnipro.Who can prevent this from really happening?And that is the hidden situation.So it is not the case that there is no room for diplomacy, but the problem is that it simply needs two sides that are willing to go at each other.And the Ukrainian side, don't be mad at me, does that, but the Russian side says no.

It is also crucial how well or badly things are going for some at the front in the said Donbass.You have brought us two maps.We would like to look at the situation at the front, at the maps you have brought us, and from you the current assessment.What does it look like at the moment in terms of the Russian approach to the advance at the front in the Donbass in the east?

Let's take a quick look at the situation.First of all, I have to say that Ukraine has done it.I am now using a term that I think is appropriate to prevent the Russians from advancing along the entire front by means of a kind of drone wave.The Russian, former offensive, is buffed.Let's take a quick look at the Russian combat forces.The Russian combat forces are dislocated in so -called operational maneuver groups.

They start in the north with the group North, move through the middle section to the south to the group Dnepr.The north and the south section are actually next to war zones.The center, you can also see it in the groupings, is the area of the Donbass, Donetsk, this area essentially.What Russia is now trying to do in preparation for the summer offensive, and it is happening, in short, is to exert pressure in the north and in the south.the If that doesn't work, the Russians will try to take over Donbass.That is the goal that Putin set out.

These operational manoeuvre groups were created in such a way that at the beginning of the conflict, the Russian military districts set up individual groups.And during the conflict, which also pushed back Russian groups, which showed success for Ukraine, these associations came to lie where we see them today.That's why we often have a bit of a confusing designation of north, west, south, actually in the east, and then all the way to the south again east and Brazil and then Dnipro.But that's the background.These operational manoeuvre groups They act like an army.They are independent and are able to define their goals.

And you can see it very well in the crowd in the center that the center of gravity is there.In concrete terms, it is now about the city of Konstantinivka.

Konstantinivka, you are talking about it.Let's take a look at it.How is the current situation when it comes to defending Konstantinivka for Ukraine?Will Ukraine succeed?

At the moment, we have two narratives here, and unfortunately it reminds us of many other cities whose names we have forgotten, which we have discussed intensively, be it Bakhmut, be it on the FK, Ugleda, now also Konstantinivka.We see that the Russians are trying to attack from the front and from the flanks in the old -fashioned tactic.We see that the Russians have now perfected the system in the depth of these attack groups, practically with drone units, such as Lufthansa.to interrupt Ukrainian logistics, so as to thin out the Ukrainians, to make it impossible for them to bring supplies into the Kressel, but also to evacuate the wounded and to take possession of these cities over the weeks and months.Konstantinovka is the entry into the fortress belt that continues from Konstantinovka via Trushivka and the goal of the Russians is to get a foot into the door of this fortress belt and then continue to mix.The Russians claim that they already have about 33 % of Konstantinivsk.

If you look at the pictures, you can see that these 33 % are still fighting fiercely.The Ukrainians are holding their positions, can be supplied, partly Is this now possible due to the use of ground drones, which are brought in over kilometers or by drones, which practically drop supply goods from the air?But the situation is very acute and we also see in the social networks on both sides, which are flooded with pictures of the fight in Konstantinivka, that this is really the hotspot at the moment, in parallel with the attacks of the Russians in the north and in the south, to dilute the Ukrainian forces.

I have a question in the stream, which just flew over briefly, which sounded like this.So the question to you, are you surprised that Russia seems to be weak militarily?Do you feel that at all?Is Russia weak for you at the front?

Don't forget, we have the 5th year of war and I often compare it to a boxing match.And if a boxing match is not decided by a KO or comes to an end relatively quickly, then we see that in the last rounds both opponents lie in their arms and have to be separated again and again by the referee to even start the boxing match, because both are completely exhausted.And that is also the case.On the operational -tactical level, both sides have suffered massive losses.We have a pad situation due to the use of these many, many drones.In principle, human hunting is being carried out on individual soldiers from both sides.

The Ukrainian soldier, if he dares to go to the surface from the bunker, the Russian soldier, if he tries to attack this bunker in small groups, and there is no breakthrough in essence.This is remarkable in my opinion.This is a bit reminiscent of the West Front in 1916 -17.Artillery duels marked the war at that time, small assault companies, and in principle this was the introduction to the last phase.And it is remarkable that Zelensky and Putin actually talked about the fact that the war is not coming to an end, because maybe it is actually the case that you realize that you can't go on like this and that death has to come to an end.

At the same time, the Russian side is spreading strong pictures, let's call it that, for the moment of a manoeuvre of the Russian nuclear forces.A power demonstration that was carried out there.We can show a few more pictures in a moment.If you show how nuclear strong you are, what should that serve?What do the Russians hope for when they show, okay, here, we can of course also use this.

These pictures have different target groups that they should address.On the one hand we see the Russian population, which of course also asks in the fifth year of the war how it should go on, because how can it be that Ukrainian drones are now attacking Moscow and the Russian leadership assures the Russian population that we can continue to escalate, we have our nuclear forces and if it becomes existential, then we will use them.The second target group is of course the West, here quite specifically on the one hand the USA, which shows that you can actually use things that are so dangerous, even if you look at this year's American News Service and Secret Service report, it is very clear and clear that the Russian forces have skills that are very dangerous and that you should not underestimate them.That is also what has been going on since the beginning of the war.Think of it, in the fall of 1922 we had an escalation, which is very well documented today, where the Russians survived.about using tactical nuclear weapons, and the United States did everything to make sure that this was not the case.

That means they take it seriously.And the target group, which we should not forget, is Europe.Now very concretely, due to the support of Ukraine, in principle, by drone components and drone components and engines, which are delivered from Europe.So where you threaten the Europeans and say, look, if you don't stop with the support, that's also the center of gravity, if you call it that, the Ukraine, the support of the West, then we will or will be able to escalate.But let me say one thing, no side is serious about breaking a third world war from us somewhere.And you can be assured that you pay close attention and communicate with each other that exactly this is not happening.

This is also the positive news compared to what we have experienced in the 50s and 60s of the last century, where you had not yet learned to deal with nuclear weapons as it was only the case at the end of the 20th century.

Russia has also spread pictures of intercontinental missiles from Russian production.I can imagine that this has now led to the questions I would like to ask you in our stream.A user wants to know, can the Oreshnik be shot down with NATO air defense in case of doubt?That's one question.And the other question is, what options are there to intercept hypersonic missiles?A user also wants to know for Germany.

You are absolutely right.This also gives us an answer to why Russia is so self -confident in spreading these drugs.There are basically short -range missiles, medium -range missiles and long -range missiles.It is particularly difficult to intercept medium -range and long -range missiles.It must be made clear that the strategic missile defense of Europe is in the hands of the Americans.The Americans basically have their capabilities here, which they make available to the Europeans.

The Federal Republic of Germany, the Bundeswehr, has for the first time with the acquisition of the Aero system, a proven system, that the Israeli forces use the opportunity to defend themselves against medium -range missiles as long as they do not carry out any saturating attacks, i .e.as long as they do notto be On the one hand, when you hear that the capabilities of the United States are being withdrawn, and when you look at the national security strategy and the national defense strategy derived from it in the United States, then you see that the Americans clearly demand that the Europeans take more responsibility here.And that means that we should not discuss in Cyprus who is negotiating for whom, but should discuss how the European deterrence and defense path is strengthened in such a way that these Russian threats are wasted.

Let's also look at the Russian side in this case, because Russia has to defend itself more and more.I mentioned it at the beginning of the show, because of more and more successful Ukrainian attacks, especially drone attacks on Russian territory.We often see pictures of missile defense in the middle of Moscow, in the Russian capital.What is the situation with Russian air defense?

Russia has the big problem that it has a huge country to defend and that Ukraine is very considerate here and also makes their attacks.They change their targets, once in the north of Russia, once in the capital, then again in the south of Russia.And if they attack in a saturated way, if they use many, many hundreds of drones, then it will not be possible to intercept all the drones with a three -fold defense ring in Moscow, but the drones will also hit the enemy.in Moscow, as we know it from the pictures from Ukraine.And that makes the Russians nervous, because, as I said, it no longer fits the narrative that this special operation of the war will take place somewhere else, but will now take place in front of the gates of Moscow or in Moscow itself.And that forces the Russians to take action here, which we have already discussed in detail.

But what we can see well is that the Ukrainian attacks are actually successful and measurable.that only the attacks of the last few weeks have damaged or destroyed 10 -15 % of the Russian oil production potential.If you add the attacks of the last few months and the last few years, then you can assume that about a quarter of the Russian production capacity has been damaged or destroyed.But a quarter is only a quarter of 100%, that is, it still needs a lot to force the Russians so far into their knees that they are ready to carry out these negotiations seriously.

Finally, I would like to end with a user question from the stream.Last week, we talked intensively about the Ukrainian attacks on Russia.Today, we talked intensively about the Russian attacks on Ukraine.Does anyone want to know why civilians and cities are still being bombed in modern wars?Has this ever been successful historically?

This question is also completely justified.If you look at the Second World War, then it is a monument to the prevailing air warfare, where the USA and Great Britain tried to force their knees through attacks on the strategic infrastructure and production facilities of air defense, as well as by thermal attacks, as it has become known, mainly by night attacks and the like.So both of them found it very cynical or very clear after the war that these attacks on civilian residential areas did not do anything, but it was the precise attacks on the armament industry that made the difference.On the air armament, on the transport routes, on the earth industry.If you now convert that to today's war picture, then you basically see the same theories, but carried out with much more precise weapons.It is, and please don't get me wrong, every single death is devastating, but compared to the attacks of the past, the collateral damage is much less compared to the heavy bomb attacks of the Second World War to today.

Even if you compare it to today,in the Gaza Strip, if you look at the attacks in Iran, if you look at the attacks of the Ukrainians in Russia or the Russians in Ukraine, the number of casualties is relatively low.As I said, every single one is devastating, but you can see that on the one hand, the weapons are very precise, or that they do not allow certain misfires to be avoided.Why are these cities being attacked?Cities are industrial centers, that is, there is exactly the critical infrastructure you need to be able to operate armament companies.There is power supply.

There is also the population that works in these arms companies, and with that we have the situation that these cities are being targeted.And one must not forget the symbolism.Kiev is the capital of Ukraine, Moscow is the capital of Russia.That means that if these capitals are actually on fire, even if it is only very limited, then of course it is a symbol that exerts an influence on its own population.Unfortunately, this is the tragedy of the 21st century, that despite all these precision weapons systems that have been developed, the principles of the war have remained unchanged.