Professor Pape REACTS: Hegseth Says 'Red, White Blue' DOME Over Hormuz Strait

Joining us now is Professor Robert Pape of the University of Chicago.He also has the Escalation Trap substack, where he'll be doing a live briefing on May 10th at 5 p .m.Eastern time with the Escalation Trap, which we always look forward to.Link down in the description that you can go ahead and sign up for.Professor, thank you so much for joining us.

As always, we appreciate you.

Yeah, thank you very much for having me.

Well, let's go ahead and start, sir, with all of these developments in the Straits of Hormuz.Initially, we have this announcement from the Secretary of War this morning, Pete Hegseth, about Operation Freedom to try and to guide ships out of the Straits of Hormuz.Not to get them back in, but at the very least, in the initial time, out.Here is his announcement about a red, white, and blue dome.Let's take a listen.

As a direct gift from the United States to the world, we have established a powerful red, white, and blue dome over the street.American destroyers are on station, supported by hundreds of fighter jets, helicopters, drones, and surveillance aircraft, providing 24 -7 overwatch for peaceful commercial vessels.except Iran's, of course, which is why our ironclad blockade remains in full effect as well.In fact, six ships tried to run the blockade out of Iranian ports as Project Freedom commenced, and they were all turned around.

What do you make of this Project Freedom, sir, of this red, white, and blue dome and this rhetoric now coming from the Pentagon?

This is a high -risk bet that the Trump administration is making, and it's a bet they really cannot afford to lose.The goal here is fairly straightforward.What you are seeing is an effort by the United States to run the blockade.They're trying to break Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz by literally running ships through the blockade.And then the bet is,and this is the risk, the gamble, the bet is that Iran will not do it.

fight back, that Iran will not shoot back.

That's the issue here.There's a certain lane.That lane is identified.And what you are already seeing is that Iran yesterday signaled quite clearly with essentially demonstration shots and even warning shots across the bow of our U .S.Navy ships that it is going to fight back.

So the Trump administration has not lost the U .S.I don't mean the UAE.If they hit a U .S.vessel here, that is probably going to trigger what you're hearing Secretary Haig says with all of that other force, the spiral then of escalation.

And that's really what we're on the precipice of here this week.I'm sorry to say that this is what the escalation trap looks like.It's not, folks, linear.So a lot of people think that it should be happening daily.and just simply progressing day by day.History, we need to understand, we're watching history in motion now, and when we read about history of the past events, that kind of smooths out the lumpiness of history.

That's true.History is lumpier, and that's why it feels lumpier, you know, not linear.But the truth is, when we write about these events, it's not linear.going to seem pretty linear.

Yeah.I want to get your reaction to another clip from that press conference, this one from General Kane, because to your point, yesterday after our show, we were watching these strikes from Iran on the UAE, the damage to the South Korean ship, and we were saying, oh boy, this may be, we may be looking at, you know, back to total war.Trump administration seems to have taken the decision to downplay the significance of those attacks.That trend continued with General Kane here.Let's take a listen to that.

The map shows the examples and samples of Iranian attacks against commercial vessels in the Strait, as well as the Gulf of Oman and up in the Arabian Gulf.Since the ceasefire was announced, Iran has fired at commercial vessels nine times and seized two container ships, and they've attacked U .S.forces more than 10 times, all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point.You can also see the group of tankers and cargo vessels in the U .S.

blockade line, as I mentioned.As a result of Iran's indiscriminate attacks across the region, there are currently 22 ,500 So the key line there, he says all of those attacks were quote, below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point.

What do you make of this type of language?

So, this is what I was anticipating when I said an attack on a US Navy ship.And also, this is what I published yesterday morning on the sub stack before all this really unfolded, is the key threshold here for the Trump administration is likely going to be Iran attacking US Navy ships directly, hitting one of those ships.Now, of course,in the officer would have the number one threshold be.don't or two or this week, very, very likely.It really is the case.

The Trump administration has effective, if you play chess, what they've done is they've put a pawn in the middle of the board and they've dared the other player to take it when the other player has a lot of pieces to go and take it.And if it doesn't take that pawn, then more is coming.You see what I mean?That's the kind of gambit that's going on, but it's a very high risk.

to through this.Let's take a listen to that and we'll get your reaction.

My ship is stranded here in Persian Gulf ever since the war started.So, so far we are safe and, you know, yes, we have witnessed various, various missiles or explosions, and we heard so many attacks on merchant ships.Thankfully, our ship is keeping safe.We have a clear written instruction from our company office, do not pass the Strait of Hormuz.My company would would never take this decision at the moment, until unless everyone assess the situation, they know that it is clearly safe to transit the Strait of Hormuz.At the moment, there is no concrete information regarding the safe passage through Strait of Hormuz.

None of the ships will, you know, try to become hero and they will show their courage to pass through straight of Hormuz until unless it is declared officially that it is safe to transit.So yes, it is going to take time.So nobody would dare at the moment pass through straight of Hormuz.

So the captain there saying that he would not go through until hostilities are over.So not really reacting positively or to the react.

That's right.This is completely to be expected.And you've heard me talk about this earlier.So civilians here are not signing up as soldiers in a war to be ordered by Donald Trump totake the risk of death.for whatever project President Trump comes up with.

Now, the military is a different story.They have to obey those orders, but civilians, both in the United States and around the world, they just simply don't.And by the way, they have other reasons.This is not simply, I don't think it's quite right to call them all cowards the way President Trump does.I mean, the fact of the matter is he did not, he dodged the draft during the Vietnam War.So this is not as simply a matter are world.

That's a lot to die for.I mean, that's not really a goal worth anybody dying for.

Agreed.Yeah.And the companies are not going to be anxious to risk their assets there, which are incredibly expensive, these massive, massive ships, massive tankers.What do you see as the pressures that are likely to build over the coming days that could lead to the next step in this conflict?

Yeah, so I think you already have saw the pressures last week.We talked a bit about this on the breaking points last week that I was on.I published again, I'm traveling a lot on these airplanes now to do all these mega podcasts, which gives you lots of time, believe it or not.And so I was explaining and amplifying what I said on the breaking points podcast.So if you look at the pressures on Donald Trump,it and Trump, Iran went to Pakistan to negotiate, but not with Americans.

In fact, the Iranian negotiators left to go to Russia before Trump could even get his people there.So this is another big sign of disrespect.And then on May 14th, in just about 10 days, you're going to see President Trump is supposed to be meeting with President Xi.Well, my goodness gracious, the amount of embarrassment here where Trump is a failed war going to President Xi almost on bended knee.Please do anything to help me a little bit.What do you want from Taiwan?

What can I give you?I mean, this is not what we would expect out of America presidency.We're supposed to be the strongest country in the world, the richest country in the world.We're not supposed to be in this groveling position here.And this is, I'm sure President Trump, this must be personally driving him, tearing him apart inside here.But it's also bad, any president would be, Trump forced the issue.

Why he started, notice it was last Thursday that he had the meeting for the new options.This is after the disrespectful Iranian behavior, disrespectful German behavior.You're seeing around the world, America's position in the world disintegrating.And that is happening in real time.On your show, I've said NATO is dead.We're just writing its obituary and we're just adding paragraphs to that obituary week by week.

And look, I'm just calling it as I'm seeing it.And this helps us to understand why the trap I talk about is so gripping.I'm not saying Trump prefers war.That's not what's going on.He just prefers losing less.That's the problem here.

And by the way, Iran is also stuck in this trap.The idea that Iran is going to lose this newfound superpower of controlling the Strait of Hormuz without threatening to kill an American.I mean, seriously, I think this is just not right.They're both trapped in the escalation trap, both sides.And what is unfortunate here, it's worse, it's a tragedy, really, is the gas price.For Americans, it's gas prices.

We're going to blow through $5 gas here in Chicago.It's already $4 .99 here where I got my gas.This is going to be $6 here in a month.I mean, we're blowing through this and it's going to have dramatically big consequences as we go forward inside of our country and This could lead to violence in the fall.This is not a good situation We're in but this is the problem.The president will not accept that big L Yeah.

Well, and we've obviously found your framework to be incredibly useful and very predictive, which is why we continue to have you back to help us understand.

I really appreciate it.You more than anybody else.It's really been a real honor here because you allow, and I get all these emails here from people, they really appreciate these weekly updates.You see what I mean?Because that's what we're able to do and that helps them to make real sense of it.I'm hoping we'll have some updates and then you'll probably stop bringing me on, but that's okay.

I'm okay with that.

I got an actual wife.

here.And I hope that could happen.

Yeah.Well, but so let me ask you, what would be some events that could occur that you think would falsify your framework where if such and such were to happen, you'd look at it and say, I got to go back to the drawing board.I missed something here.There was some flaw in my analysis.

Yeah, absolutely.And so I've said this before.It's like the inverse of my indicator.So I keep telling people that the key thing to do is try to ignore the rhetoric and look at the behavior of states.And one of the things that would be a thing that would the If he would also move out hundreds of the aircraft that he has stationed in the region, that would mean we're marching out.If he would withdraw troops, the Marines, so we've famously moved 10 ,000 Marines.

So if we withdraw those Marines, and I mean put them back at Camp Pembleton or back in Japan, I don't just mean we declare they're gone, I mean they physically move.Those are really key indicators, and that would tell us Tell me we're on the track of de -escalation, not stuck in the escalation trap.

All right.Well, Professor Pape, as always, we appreciate your analysis.Everybody go check out the Escalation Trap sub stack, and that would enable you to get access to that live briefing this Sunday.Thank you so much.Great to see you again, sir.

Thank you very much.And also, I love the tough questions.here.This is the way we should be doing this.And I really appreciate your, and keep them coming.We need to have serious conversations here.

Thank you.I agree.Our pleasure.

Thank you very much, sir.Appreciate it.

Okay, bye -bye.

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