Professor Pape REACTS: Iran's 'Axis Of Resistance' Will Transform The World

Very excited now to be joined by our great friend of the show, Professor Robert Pape of the University of Chicago.It's good to see you, sir.Thanks for coming back.

Thank you so much for having me.

Absolutely.Let's go ahead and start with B1.This really caught our interest, Professor.Curious for your reaction.The commander of the IRGC Quds Force issued a very interesting statement yesterday.He said that they would establish a new security belt of resistance, that from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab al -Mendab Strait off of Yemen, and then to the Gulf to the Red Sea, according to these new comments by state media, they are now using the term resistance or active resistance.

of resistance to refer to Iranian allies in the region from Hezbollah to Yemen's Houthis.What do you make of this new term of the axis of resistance, this security belt comment in the context of everything that's been happening here in this war?

This is more evidence for the new stage of the war that we've entered into.We just passed day 100 of the Iran war.There is no end in sight.We are not at the end.We are in the middle game.And in the middle game, the most distinctive feature, which has happened for weeks, and what you just showed is strong evidence of it, is that Iran has moved from survival to ambition.

Let me say that again.Iran is no longer just considering how does it survive.Iran is moving from survival to ambition.You see that in its behavior.You see that a week ago.It responds to relatively minor strikes here by the U .

S.by upping the ante to put pressure on Kuwait and Bahrain.They are not just doing tit for tat.They are using a version of their own escalation dominance to put pressureon those Gulf states to withdraw American forces from their territory.Almost at the same time, they threaten Israel.

You attack Hezbollah's strongholds in Beirut, that's Iran's key ally, and Iran is going to punish, going to retaliate.This is part of that new red line.that you just showed.They are extending an umbrella.They are not just worrying about survival in Tehran.They're extending an umbrella, a new architecture.

That is a new ambition.And then last week, right at the end of last week, the senior advisor to the Supreme Leader made a statement almost identical to what you just showed, except did not define the umbrella area so clearly.He used the same geographic space, by the way, but not that clear set of red lines.So what you are seeing is that Iran has gained power in the opening stage.That's like the opening in chess.It has gained power.

And in the middle game, it's not just happy going for a draw.It's going to extend that power in a more ambitious way.And that middle game with this new security architecture, and I'm glad to say a bit more about that, but this middle game, this is going to go on, folks, through the summer.We are almost surely now going to have the new crisis in the world economy based on Iran's behavior and rhetoric.This is almost locked in.The world may not fully expect it, but this is what you would expect.

This is what the direction of the modeling for the 20 years would expect.And then I'm sorry to also say this is not just going to end on Labor Day.Donald Trump extended the naval blockade to Labor Day as if this is going to be over by Labor Day, which, of course, very convenient for him with the midterms.That's not where Iran's thinking is.If Iran can hurt its opponents through the midterms, as the United States and also Israel Netanyahu has elections coming, it's going to take advantage of that.So we need to expect that this middle game is going to go on through the summer, through the new economic crisis, into the fall and midterms and probably into January.

That's the true middle game we are facing.

Wow.So if that's where Iran is, they've moved from survival to ambition.What is Trump's perspective?What are his thoughts?Because we've been tracking on the show how you had the situation where Israel was struck by Iran.Trump tells a bunch of reporters, I don't want Israel to retaliate.

Then Israel retaliates anyway.He's now saying, oh, well, I understand that they had to do that limited strike, but now they're done.But of course, this morning we see headlines that they continue to strike inside of Lebanon.So in any case, what do you think is going on in terms of Trump's calculus and how all of that unfolded?

Yes, so what Trump is doing, first let's just explain, as Iran has gained power, America has lost strategic position.These are a direct trade -off of each other.Trump's rhetoric and phone calls and statements are as if he was still the dominant power.He is acting as if he is still in control.In fact, he has been saying, I am in control.Well, the fact is, Trump is losing

control as his strategic position has declined.And control is not defined by what the actor President Trump says, I have control.It's defined by how others are reacting.So Point number one, the Iranians have said, and this is what the advisor to the Supreme Leader said late last week, that they're just going to ignore what Trump says about negotiations.It's not they're going to respond to it tit for tat.They're just ignoring him.

They don't think it has any reality, and they've laid out their demands in public, which means they're digging their heels in, and they don't really care what President Trump says anymore.At least that's what they've said, and their behavior would reflect that.Israel also, they're still taking, Netanyahu is still taking President Trump's calls, okay?So I'm not saying that they've gone that far in not taking the call.They're taking the call, but Netanyahu did not follow Trump's orders.Trump tried to order Netanyahu not to retaliate, and what happened?

Netanyahu launched airstrikes On iran in western and central iran against some key targets.So this is the opposite of listening to president trump president trump is losing control because his behavior and rhetoric has been as if he Had not lost that strategic position right?Well in war the realities dictate everything You can try to have your happy talk and that's what president trump is doing.Uh, but this is being ignored because the happy talk is irrelevant.We all see the realities, and that's true in much of the American public, that's true in the leadership, and that is why President Trump's words seem to have no reality at all.them.

It's because there is no reality to his words.And we know this.How long has it been?Let me just ask you.And the listeners should ask, how long has it been that they have heard President Trump say that their negotiations with Iran are just about to be settled?Well, I went back before we came on.

I just thought I would just check for myself.And this could be a game that listeners could do on Google.I found it goes back to March 29th.Okay, so that's 72 days of this.Now, if your listeners can, it's like beat the professor, maybe I missed one before March 29th.So just let me know if they found one going back earlier than March 29th.

But that's 72 days of almost every day or every other day hearing, we're only days away from the deal with Iran.So you could see, as Iran's ambitions grow, as it extends its umbrella, it's spreading its wings, why he would be losing control.

Professor, you had a prediction here, or just a statement on our show many months ago.You said Iran has become a new regional world power.I put that clip out.I got quite a lot of criticism, mostly from the Israeli lobby.And what I found fascinating, actually, is watching some of this proof out.And so yesterday, when we saw Iran enforce its red line of strikes on Lebanon for the first time in its modern history, to actually use that as a pretext explicitly to enforce regional action, how did that prove out that original statement that you made, to watch such a change in their own strategic behavior?

Yeah, so to be clear, I made that public statement in a New York Times piece on April 4th, where I said Iran is emerging as the fourth center of world power.And also, to be clear,Iran is hegemon in its region of the world, the Western Hemisphere.China is the second strongest, and it wants to be and almost is a hegemon in Asia.Russia is the third strongest, and it is vying to become the hegemon in Eastern Europe.That's what's happening with the battle with Ukraine.

And who else is a hegemon?There's no other regional hegemon.Iran would be the fourth regional hegemon in the Gulf.That is the dominant state in the Gulf.And what does that look like?That looks like a state, which has a sphere of influence, not just worrying about its own narrow protection.

And that's what's true of all those other three states.And also, I believe this will also mean that it will protect its allies.And that's exactly what you are seeing here.So, we're used to thinking of Hezbollah as like the puppet or the pawn that is expendable to support Iran.Iran, this is the other way around.This is Iran establishing a sphere of influence, and it's also extending to the Houthis.

So, there's a whole sphere here that is being defined, and that's a sphere of influence, and it is acting to do, and by the way, it's gaining success, because its threats, its stronger power compelled President Trump to make those phone callsThat's Donald Trump would never have made those phone calls on the behavior just because Iran was making a threat.So you are seeing reality to that prediction I made two months ago, and this will go on over time.I think, I believe Iran's position as the fourth center of world power will emerge drip by drip by drip over the summer.This will get even stronger because as the coronavirus Crisis hits the world's economy, you know, basically end of June to July We don't know the exact date, but we know that it's coming This will strengthen Iran's position in the region and also in the world So you are seeing the emergence of a fourth center of world power right in front of our eyes We've never I don't I'm not surprised people were skeptical of this argument because we haven't seen that in our lifetime, right?Last time you saw the emergence of a center of world power, not in our lifetime, that China happened very, very slowly and was already a pretty powerful state.

You have to go to back history.This is like Prussia in the 19th century to really kind of put this in some historical perspective.So it's not truly unique, and it's a function of not just the economy of Iran.That's how we often measure power, just raw economy.It's the geography.It is the geography plus the technology.

That's what helped Prussia.So this is a little bit different calculus.We have seen bits of this before.But I am not surprised there was some pushback.And I believe this is going to be one of the giganticthat's going to reshape the world coming out of this war.

This war is not like the Greenland issue.It's not like Venezuela.This is a different animal.It's always going to be a different animal.I really appreciate the fact that I've been able to talk about this on your podcast.on your show.

I also appreciate the New York Times taking the risk, because they got enormous pressure.Everybody said, what are you talking about?That's no, but now you're seeing the reality.And by the way, that's just another prediction that's coming out of all this modeling, thinking about the bombing of Iran.This would not be happening had President Trump not bombed Iran.

Well, it's fascinating because it's really attributable to this combination of modern military tech with the drones, et cetera, and also sort of old school, just geographic position in the world.So it really is this very unique.

If I could just make a suggestion for your listeners, because a lot of your listeners love they should go and look at a piece by Halford Mackinder called The Geographic Pivot of History, 1904.British geographer, and they will see that yes, it's not always been true.We've measured great power simply by raw GDP.Because that's how he explained what was happening to Britain as Prussia was consolidating and why that geography mattered so much.

Well, one thing I wanted to ask you about is how this changes the game for Israel.You know, they have obviously they have our support.They've bombed something like seven countries over the past several years, have de facto annexed parts of Syria, have de facto annexed, you know, most of Gaza, taken complete control over the West Bank.have now invaded and taken control over parts of Lebanon and have been able to do all of this basically with impunity.You'd have to think that this new reality would, you know, constrain them quite significantly in ways that they aren't used to in recent years.

It's going to, and it's going to constrain them more over time, and I'll be writing pieces about this on the substack, by the way, because it's part of the new emerging reality.But don't think that it's going to stop all at once, but you're seeing the beginning of this change now.What you can expect over time is as that new security architecture becomes solidified, Israel's apparently weakens Israel's position.But number two, what's going to happen as time goes on is you will see evolutions with the drone and missile capability of Iran's proxy.So, we already know that Hezbollah and the Houthis have missile and drone capability.That's not the change.

The change, and you're starting to see it just in the last 24 hours, is much more sophisticated, concerted effort with those missiles and drones to think and accountway how to weaken Israel.And so what you see is that we had the issue, of course, with Israel, Lebanon.Everybody's focused on that.But I have been watching the Red Sea and the Houthis.And what and I haven't been surprised by what I found, what we saw in the last 24 hours, which is that the Houthis have stepped in to this part, this this issue.

And what they have done is they are threatening any Israeli related traffic the Red Sea, that choke point.Well, that is now an expansion to that new theater.Think of it as a new part of the theater here, a new area that is now expanding in a coherent way, just as your opening quote suggested.And that is going to weaken Israel over time because those drones, those missiles can be used in a much more concerted way.And this is just the beginning for Israel.Notice that if America and Israel together couldn't root out all the drones and missiles here, as America gets weaker and its position gets weaker in the Middle East, Israel on its own is not going to be able to do that either.

This is a picture of a grand strategic, not quite collapse, but reduction here, decline for Israel over time, but you're just seeing the early stages of this, and this trajectory is likely to go on as far as the eye can see.

As always, thought -provoking and usually correct on a long timeline.So thank you very much, sir.We appreciate your time.

Thank you so much for having me.

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