Professor Pape: Why A Nuclear Iran Is INEVITABLE

We're joined once again by Professor Robert Pape over at the University of Chicago, also the author of the Escalation Trap Substack, it's just escalationtrap .substack .com, where he has been covering the Iraq War from his, the Iran War, from his expert perspective, having spent years actually writing about a scenario such as this.So, Professor Pape, welcome back to Breaking Points.

Thank you very much for having me.And have no fear, we're soon going to forget about that minor thing called the Iraq War.

Oh, it's so depressing.It's so very depressing to think about.Let's just start with the OPEC news.Big news yesterday.UAE out of OPEC by May 1.What did you make of that?

And does it fit into the escalation?

Well, yeah, absolutely.This is part of a larger picture that happened this week.This is the week that the United States has truly lost control of the Iran war.This has all happened, it's been building, and I've been talking about this, but you can now see it this week.Iran is negotiating without the United States.So Iran's going to Pakistan, it's going to Russia, it's about to go to Oman, but it's not about meeting with the United States.

Our allies, at least maybe our former allies, our allies, say the German leader, is publicly saying that America is humiliated on the world stage.Just think about that for a moment.And the global system, the region and the global system is essentially moving on without the United States.And that's where the UAE comes in.So I definitely understand that it's a data point and it's thought of as a soda straw, but it's much more than that.So what I have been explaining on your show on the Substack for weeks now is that Iran is emerging as the fourth center of world power.

In fact, you got the exclusive first, even before The New York Times.What that is going to have major consequences, and it doesn't unfold all at once.It unfolds over time.Now, within the region, and I said this in print and on your show, what this is going to mean is that Iran, as it gets powerful and as America loses control here, and everybody sees that, this is going to fragment the GCC countries.They're not going to all respond in a wave or in unison to these changes.What you're going to see is each of them increasingly is going to act on their own.

Think of them as they were part of a group and they had group interests.Well, now that America is not there to serve as a real anchor and it's now all clear for everyone to see, America's just lost control, not losing, but lost control.It's no surprise they're fragmenting.Earlier, a few weeks ago, Iraq started to move toward positions of Iran and started to become increasingly critical of American presence in Iraq.This was the beginning of this fragmentation.Now what you're seeing is the UAE They're not moving toward Iran.

That's not what they're doing, because they're pretty terrified Iran's about to topple, going to want to topple their government.What they're doing is they're fragmenting, they're not going to let OPEC or Saudi Arabia,who really is the main driver in OPEC, just run them into the ground.So that's why they are moving away.And what they're doing is moving away from a concerted counterbalancing coalition that the United States has been trying to build for years now with the Abraham Accords, counterbalancing Iran.Well, this is all now just fragmenting.

It's falling apart.And you're only seeing the beginning of the fragmentation.This is likely going to get worse, and America can't stop it.Notice nobody's even bothering to consult President Trump here to say, well, do you think you could change the UAE's mind?What do you think about this?They don't care.

And that's really devastating for America's interests, America's role in the world.And it's kind of hard, I think, for a lot of people to imagine, although I've been saying to expect this, I think now the reality is it's just kind of hard to accept here that it really is the case that this is all tragic, but it was predictable.Basically, the decisions of one guy in the world, President Trump, has enormous power, and he's used that power to devastatingly negative consequences for America, the region, much of the world's economy, and to the growing power of America's leading rivals.

It puts those reports that the Saudis were pushing for the Iran war behind the scenes in an interesting context, too.

Indeed.So when we started this program, Brent crude prices were at I think $114 a barrel.They're now, as we're getting towards the end of the show, up to $117 a barrel.That's despite an enormous amount of Americanto keep the prices down, both through kind of deliberate attempts at kind of spreading nonsense about the Iranians are headed to Islamabad, they're about to capitulate, they said they're collapsing, they want to open the trade, plus actual material manipulation using the power of the US Treasury to actually get into the markets and play with the numbers.As you do your kind of forecasting, what does $117 a barrel oil do to those calculations?

And what does it say about what room Trump has to maneuver?

Well, what we are seeing, and we've talked about this before, is there is a trajectory here.with the straight -of -horn moves being closed down, and everybody now knows, closed down 20 % of the world's oil, 30 % fertilizer, dot, dot, dot.But the trajectory is, in the first 45 days, and we're now at day 60, the first 45 days, it was simply price rising, and price rising notably, but in anticipation of stage two, which started about, actually, two weeks ago, it's this middle stage where shortages, actual shortages are appearing.That has been recorded here, the worry about the jet fuel, Europe, and this is just the beginning of all this.That is what you are seeing now, and this is going to get worse because All the ships that were in transit over the last couple of months, it could possibly still have some oil in them.They've all hit dry dock.

They've all been there.The storage areas, the storage bins that are full have been filled.to be sucked dry.So what you are getting now is the true shortage period starting.And it actually started about 10 days ago.And we've talked a bit about this.

And this is why now the price of oil is, it's not like prices just went up once and then they stopped.Once the shortage is actually hit, it's not a probability, it's a reality.And that's what you're seeing with the price of oil.And this is, unfortunately, something that's going to go on.Because as shortages occur, it's supply and demand.There's still demand for this, but there's less of it.

So the price of what's left must go up.That's the only way to sort that out.And so that's why the price is going to go up.And this was fully predictable.This is not a You know, the markets may have tried to pretend, Donald Trump may have tried to pretend, but you know, reality has a way of... coming in and showing its ugly head.And that's what you are seeing.

And unfortunately, May is going to be this period where the real shortages and those effects are going to start to be felt.And then by the middle of May, probably the end of May, you will see the actual contraction occurring.Lufthansa announced, for example, a week ago, it would have 20 ,000 flights canceled, these short haul flights canceled.Well, this is probably then going to lead to, in a month, a few weeks later, layoffs.That is, you will start to see, in the middle of May, end of May, you're going to start to see rising inflation, the prices going up equals inflation, and you'll see the beginning then, side by side, of rising unemployment.This is just, though, the beginning.

This is the beginning.90 days.Now, as we get into 120 days, these things will simply get worse.That's what happened in the 1970s.It was called the misery index.We haven't used that term since I was a kid.

I was a kid, and that term was really quite common because it went on for years, and it got worse well before it got better.It didn't just get better.It went on for years.Interest rates on homes went up to 16%.My grandparents had to pay to buy a home at one point.What you're seeing is that's the trajectory we're on, and it'll start to be called again, I suspect, the misery index, maybe the Trump misery index.

And there were dueling reports in the New York Times and Wall Street Journal.They weren't really dueling.They were basically saying, actually, that what the rub is right now is Iran has said they will come to the table on the straight.if Trump agrees to table the nuclear negotiations.Donald Trump just last night at the state dinner said, we have defeated Iran militarily.So, Professor Pape, we're all trying to do our best here to learn to speak fluent Trumpies and understand what exactly he's saying and projecting or attempting to project.

So what do you make of where these negotiations are right now?Because I could see someone saying, Professor Pape, Iran is willing to come to the table and reopen the strait.Does this not undermine your argument that we're headed to a potential catastrophe worse than Iraq?

means by the word opening the strait is that ships can pass through the strait as long as they coordinate with the Iranian military in advance and as long as they pay the toll, which I believe is currently imagined to be about $2 million a ship.to pass one time.So if you have, say, 100 chips, that's $200 million a day that Iran would be bringing in.That's $60 billion a year that would be also over and above that much or more that Iran would make on selling its own oil.So this is why Secretary Rubio just said this is not really an open, this is not open.So what Iran is doing is going through its 10 points that it delivered to Trump.

Remember when we started the ceasefire, Trump agreed to the 10 point plan as a basis for negotiation.All Iran is doing is literally going through the 10 points.And the first point is they get to keep the straight.That is they will, they're gonna keep a tight fist on the jugular of the world's economy, and they will extort costs here from the world, which is $2 million a ship.And then also, they want their own oil to be exported.to be sold, and so they're perfectly going to be happy at manipulating the price of oil.

So what also that means, just to be also what the implication here is, is that if Iran wants to keep the price of oil at 100 bucks a barrel, they know how to do that.They can regulate what happens across the strait.They can optimize, in other words, their financial earnings from controlling the strait.Now, the second point is the nuclear negotiations.So notice that before this war kicked off on February 28, Iran and the United States were in negotiations on the nuclear material.That's what was being discussed.

What Iran is simply saying is that's off the table now.They're just not interested in that.Now, they're not saying at all when that will come back.So what that tells me is Iran is not giving up this power of the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon, and Iran is probably starting to lay the groundwork for developing nuclear weapons over the next maybe year or so.And that would also dovetail with why they're talking with Pakistan, a nuclear weapons state that helped Iran with centrifuges, to start its program in the first place, and also Russia, another nuclear weapon state that's been a military ally of Iran.So if Iran is going to pursue this very aggressive agenda to truly emerge as the force center of world power with nuclear weapons, it needs allies, and it looks like it's working with its allies, and it's certainly working with its allies better than we're working with ours.

Well, I think what Iran is saying here is that they're not going to discuss the nuclear issue until the naval blockade of the strait is lifted.But at that point, I think there is real willingness to discuss it.

Now, whether - I guess we maybe have a slight difference of view here.They say they will not enter face -to -face negotiations with America at all unless America lifts the naval blockade.I think that's my understanding of this.Now, you may be right.I want to not get into it, but it is the case that They've said that now multiple times, and again, this issue of postponing the nuclear negotiations here, I guess I just have the view, I'm reading it.that they really are working with others along the trajectory of gaining power.

And also, I just want to point out that this is going to have global consequences even beyond the Iran war.So Russia here is going to want something from Iran.And that may be tighter coordination as Russia tries to gain power over Europe, not just in the battle space of Ukraine.And Iran and Russia together control now 30 percent of the world's oil.So, we need to keep our eye on that.And then also, we need to look over at Asia.

So, we shouldn't forget that all the estimates now that are coming out of the Pentagon is we have spent 50 % roughly of our Patriot arsenal, our THAAD arsenal, a number of our very important precision interceptor arsenals, and that means we're leaving Taiwan essentially naked here, or virtually naked.And that opens all kinds of possibilities for President Xi to want some concessions, either tacitly or explicitly, vis -a -vis US relations with Taiwan.So I just point out that this is a, when I say Trump, the United States has lost control of the Iran war and it's having global implications, It actually has global implications even beyond the price of what's happening to the world economy and the price of gasoline here at home.

Yeah.

And on the nuclear point, the trip that Raji took to Russia could also, you could imagine, well, in which, well, to back up, as you know, in 2020,Russia was part of the Iran nuclear deal and Iran, through that deal, agreed to ship and did in fact ship, and I don't think most people know this, 25 ,000 pounds of enriched uranium to Russia.

Let me talk if it's okay.

And they now have less than a thousand, but go ahead.

Let me talk if it's okay just for a minute about the JCPOA and how it came about, because I'm pretty familiar with this.And a lot of your listeners may not know that part of the other area I've been studying for 30 years is economic pressure, economic sanctions, blockades, et cetera.Well, one of the things that's important to know is that the Obama administration had economic sanctions on Iran, and then we got the nuclear deal.Well, why did that economic pressure work?It worked because Russia and China, these are the military allies of Iran, joined in that America's coalition against Iran.In fact, Russia stopped selling their SA -300s, to give you a very specific point.

But then let's back it up a little further.Why did Russia do this?Out of the goodness of its heart?Well, in 2008, I was part of Obama's primary teams, and I had an idea.and I was on one team and a guy by the name of Sean Kay was on the NATO team and I said to Sean on a phone call.You know, the number one issue here that we should really worry about for the Middle East, because I was on the Middle East team, was really a nuclear weapon by Iran.

It would set off all kinds of issues.But in order to stop it, we need Russia, because if you could get the military ally of Iran on board.But how do you do that?We should trade missile defense, U .S.missile defense,

Eastern Europe to get Russia's concession to go along with Obama's plan to get a counterbalancing coalition against Iran. Well,Well, that's exactly what Obama did.So, Sean wrote that up, send it up the chain on the NATO team, and well and behold, Obama wins.And what does he do?He trades directly with Putin, US National Missile Defense, to get Putin's work, I mean, agreement to be part of the coalition against Iran.And that's how you got the JCPOA.

That's actually, now, how would you recreate that?Well, that means the United States would have to really give major concessions here to Putin.What would those concessions look like?They would have to be much more than simply don't send aid to Ukraine, because that's already going way down.you're probably going to have to work to undermine European support for Ukraine in a direct way if you want Putin here to even think about the idea of joining the naval blockade.And what we would be talking about would be Putin sending a Russian ship to join the US naval blockade.

Now, that would change things.But this is the level at which we're talking about.We're not talking about minor cosmetic issues.That's not what brought Russia in with Obama, and that's not what's going to bring Russia in to help with this situation.They're simply not going to bail out the United States because Russia, Levrov just gave this big speech a few days ago where he explained that from Russia's perspective, they're at war against the West.Well, what do you do when you're at war?

You want to crush your opposition.And now you have Iran and Russia meeting.What are they talking about?I think they're talking about how to do things against their common enemy.

Sounds right.Professor Pape, always a pleasure.Thank you so much.

And I'm sorry I don't give you a very many ways out of the escalation trap.

That's the point.That's right, that's right.And the Escalation Trap is over on Substack.You can follow Professor Pape's work there.Thank you so much again, Professor.

Yeah, thank you very much.Always a pleasure and very smart questions and interjections.Very smart.

Ryan will take it.

Thank you.Okay, bye bye.

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