Putin breaks silence over Moscow strikes humiliation | Russia-Ukraine latest war news

I'm Dom Nichols, and this is Ukraine The Latest.Today, after days of memes and rising panic across Russia, Putin finally breaks his silence on last week's dramatic strikes on Moscow.Plot spoiler, they were just a sign of Russian strength on the battlefield.We report how Russia's defence ministry really should be on the payroll of Zelensky's press office, as they detail at length all the areas Ukrainian forces have hit in the last 24 hours, And we look at the growing disgruntlement in Moscow as the Kremlin accuses the United States of failing to follow through on Trump -Putin understandings.And later, Adly gets an update from one of the leading campaigners seeking to unlock billions for Ukraine through the frozen Russian assets.It's Wednesday the 24th of June, four years and 120 days since the full scale invasion began.

And today I'm joined by our expert on Russia and the Caucasus, James Kilner.Later, you'll hear Adelaide's interview with Hugo Dixon, commentator at large for Reuters.Now, Putin has broken his silence on those dramatic back -to -back strikes on the Moscow oil refinery last week.His refusal to acknowledge the most impactful attacks on Moscow since the Second World War was a position that had lost all credibility, given the global headlines, the memes, and the social media commentary that has been generated.As ever, though, he had to frame the Ukrainian attacks as nothing more than a desperate response to Russia's amazing battlefield successes.Putin said, We are aware and can see that the situation at the front rapidly deteriorates for the Kiev regime, and as the adversary loses territory after territory while our troops capture one settlement after another, the regime has adopted a tactic of striking our civilian targets and infrastructure.

They are attempting to disrupt energy supplies and impact the tourist season.Now, casting my eyes over Russian state media this morning, I see a Kremlin -installed official in Crimea has said the intensified Ukrainian attacks on the peninsula are retaliation for Crimea's decision to become a part of Russia in the 2014 referendum.Now, this is Vladimir Konstantinov, chairman of the State Council of the Republic of Crimea, who clearly hasn't read the memo from Moscow saying officials should never acknowledge that Crimea was not part of Russia when the current war started in 2014.They're clearly feeling the heat down there, because his comments yesterday came just after Moscow's man, Sergei Aksenov, who has been serving as the Russia -installed head of Crimea since 2014, inadvertently made two other truthful comments the Kremlin would prefer never got aired in public.Drone attacks are a new challenge for Crimea, he said, acknowledging the scale of the problem.And we must endure them, he added, suggesting perhaps recognising Russia's inability to get to grips with the problem.

Now, as if to illustrate the official's points, last night, drones from Ukraine's Alpha Special Operations Centre, that's part of the SBU, Ukraine's security service, hit four aircraft shelters at the Saki Air Base, along with S -400 and Pantsir -S1 air defence systems near Kirsh.That's all in Crimea.In a statement, the SBU said the SBU will continue methodically turning Crimea into a zone of constant losses for Russian forces until they leave the Ukrainian peninsula.Russian occupiers are losing control of Crimea's skies.Now, this morning, the Russian Ministry of Defence says 323 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Russian regions, the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov last night.Then, in another example of really not projecting the image of strength they hoped their words would offer, they reported the regions that had been attacked by Ukraine.

I won't list them all here as I've got plans for the weekend, but suffice to say it would take quite a while as there were a lot, over 20 in fact.Now, the impact of the repeated Ukrainian attacks on Russian logistic lines continues to be felt far and wide, with by far the majority of regions in Russia now reporting gasoline shortages.One Bermuz driver in Russia's Krasnodar region was shocked to find she couldn't fill a car up with fuel and was dumbfounded as to the reason.We've reached the point where we can't even fill up the tank anymore, she despairs.There is no fuel at the gas stations in Krasnodar.I just decided to fill up.

Mind -blowing.Tell me what's happening in the country, she demands.In Russian -controlled Crimea, authorities in Sevastopol have imposed limits on public transport, shop and cafe opening hours, street lighting and outdoor events.Industry sources have told Reuters that Russia's gasoline output last week was down about a quarter compared to the daily average in June last year, and seaborne oil product exports were down about 15 percent in the first half of June compared to just the first half of last month due to unplanned refinery maintenance after repeated drone attacks.Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov tried to explain away Russia's current problems, saying yesterday that all global economies are impacted by the current oil price volatility.

Yeah, but we're not all impacted by the Ukrainian drones, Dmitry.

Now, as a response to the crisis, Moscow is considering emergency measures to address fuel shortages caused by these hits on refineries and energy infrastructure.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said during a meeting with Putin yesterday that the current situation on the Russian fuel market is challenging but manageable, adding that all necessary measures to ensure stable fuel supplies are being taken.The measures he outlined, which are pretty inconsequential, I don't know why we're all getting our knickers in a twist, include a complete ban on diesel exports, buying in fuel from other countries, and fiddling with tax rules to contain rising prices.Fuel shortages have already led to sales restrictions, long queues, and higher prices in several regions.Now, Putin gave his assessment of the situation, saying the attacks were intended to destabilise Russia's society, and he instructed the government to do something about them.It's a clever one, that boy.

Now, James, I've got to pause here and ask for your view on this.I mean, it's been quite dramatic, the images we've seen, but, you know, really behind the headlines, what impact is it really having?

Well, first of all, we have to report that Putin, we think really for the first time, has acknowledged these fuel problems.He told a government meeting yesterday in his own cagey sort of through the looking glass way that the situation around fuel supplies in Russia was quote -unquote difficult.Obviously, this is a huge understatement, but the importance is that he has referenced it.He's acknowledged it.This is very unusual for Putin.He rarely references or acknowledges any sort of problems.

But I think the thing with this, what is it, roughly a year, 15 months that Ukraine has been targeting Russian oil refineries with increasingly long -range drones and missiles, is that there's no getting away from this.The Kremlin can't just shovel this problem under the carpet.It's not some economic number that can be massaged or ignored or explained away.This is a very visual, very obvious failing.tantamount to near collapse of the system when you've got tourists fleeing Crimea, meant to be the jewel in the crown of the Russian tourist scene, fleeing and giving these quotes about there's no fuel left in Crimea, there's no power, the shops are running out of food.This is all filtering back through to the Russian media to the point where The Russian media is able to talk about the problems in Crimea in a fairly abstract way, but they can't get away, they can't dodge dealing and reporting on the problems of the fuel.

They're now saying that 20in Russia, this is from mainstream Russian media, a propagandist media which normally defends the Kremlin and Putin to the hilt, 20 Russian regions are now limiting fuel supplies for cars.So, you know, a major crisis unavoidable for Putin to deal with.To your point about the advice he's getting, from his acolytes in the Kremlin.Igor Sechin, he's the CEO of Rosneft, a Russian state oil company.He's a long -term friend of Putin.

He's been advising Putin that there are an unprecedented number of refineries in Russia with damage to them, and he is now advising Putin to give up on the high -quality fuel, and reduce Russian refinery output to a level which Europe has already discarded as too dirty.In this way, he's hoping to get through the shortages by basically making the fuel worse.As you say, we've got Reuters estimating that 25 % of Russian refineries are fuel production is down 25%.We've got reports today saying that Russia is considering importing fuel from India to make up supplies.All this increases the air of vulnerability, dislocation, chaos, which is feeding into Putin's image and aura.And this is really where it comes back to the war in Ukraine.

This is really the beauty and the success of the strategy from Ukraine to target the oil refineries.It's impacting Putin's popularity itself to the point where we now readfrom Russian opposition, well -sourced Russian opposition articles, saying that Putin's being advised by two senior, two of his most senior and trusted security advisors, to postpone regional elections in September.A remarkable result of his collapse in popularity.They say his popularity has been so badly dented by the fuel crisis, by his increased censorship, by the long -running war, by the economic problems, that there's such a high level of discontent in Russia now that they're thinking of cancelling regional elections for the first time that I can remember.

Thanks, James.Stay where you are.I'll come back to you in a moment for more comment.I'll get on with the updates.You go make yourself a nice cup of tea from that lovely kettle behind you, because you don't look quite warm enough whilst I get on with the updates.Now, other Ukrainian strikes across Russia and occupied territories last night included hits on the gas -producing plant and the helium plant in Orenburg Oblast.

That's 1 ,000 kilometres east of Ukraine, over near Kazakhstan.and another space communication centre, this one in Vladimir Oblast to the east of Moscow, the second such facility Ukraine has struck this week after the Dubna site was hit on Sunday night.All of which means it's time once again to show the classic video taken on this day three years ago of Robert Magyar -Brovdy, the commander of Ukraine's unmanned systems forces, who's eating popcorn whilst watching the chaos unfolding in Russia.He was watching footage of Yevgeny Prigozhin's ill -fated march on Moscow, as you'll remember, or Mutinino bounty.But it seems appropriate today anyway.So James, it doesn't sound like life is much fun in Russia right now.

I think that's a fair assessment, Dom.I think it hasn't been much fun for a while.Although cucumber prices have stabilised, as we reported on heavily.Oh, thank God.And the Kremlin maythis for propaganda purposes.

You can regularly...

They're milking cucumbers for propaganda purposes?

Absolutely.That's a headline.You can regularly read how cucumbers are cheaper in Russia than anywhere else in Europe, and the cost of making a sandwich is cheaper in Russia than anywhere else in the EU.Those stories are to a penny at the moment in Russian media.Other than cucumber prices, life is generally a lot harder, as we've been reporting on just now.Tourists fleeing Crimea, missile and drone attacks on cities across Russia, increased censorship, This is really making people angry.

There's now a story out saying that the Russian government is considering legislation to make people register every single mobile phone they have with a government unit.There's stories about how the construction industry in Russia and the fashion industry in Russia Closed sales are both on the point of collapse.Mortgage lending has collapsed by about 62 % or 65 % in about a year.There's no new bills going up, all this sort of stuff.Repairs to lifts, another one of my signifiers are now so infrequent that they make headlines in regional news when they're done.And streetlights are being turned off across Russia, either to save money or to reduce the likelihood of a successful drone or missile attacks.

All in all, it's a much harder, more miserable, more expensive, more difficult place to live.

Blimey, incredible.Right, James, come back to you shortly.I'm going to carry on.Now, there was no move to the front line in Ukraine yesterday, 1 ,260 Russian casualties, according to the Ukrainian general staff, but a staggering 430 soft skin vehicles, including fuel trucks, I think probably most of them.were fuel trucks.10 people were killed, 72 injured across Ukraine after six of 101 drones got through, alongside, of course, shelling and glide bombs, the FPV drones in areas where Russia can use them to reach Ukrainian civilians, and other attacks.

Now, on the diplomatic front, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has warned that Russia may be preparing a staged false flag incident on its own territory to justify escalation, drawing parallels with Nazi Germany's 1939 provocation against Poland.His comments followed recent Kremlin rhetoric accusing the West of preparing for war with Russia, or building up defences against the revanchist, murderous thug who lives next door, as many in the West might characterise it.Now, Western intelligence sources have raised concerns that Russia could use hybrid tactics such as drones or cyber attacks against NATO's eastern flank, or what I like to call the front line, particularly Poland and the Baltic states, to pressure allies into reducing support for Ukraine.Mr. Sikorsky said, this sounds like an announcement of a provocation.I expect an attack on Russian territory under a false flag to which Putin will respond.Now, ahead of talks with Ukrainian ministers in Seoul next Tuesday, South Korea has said it will accept all North Korean prisoners of war who fought for Russia and were captured by Ukraine if they choose to go to South Korea.

This comes from Seoul's foreign ministry speaking yesterday.South Korea opposes any repatriation of North Korean prisoners of war to Russia or to North Korea against their wishes, the ministry said.Now, I've seen reports of North Korean prisoners of war numbers being extremely low, but it's worth noting anyway.Next, Hungary has delayed a procedural step needed to advance the EU membership applications of Ukraine and Moldova, according to EU diplomats.Although all EU countries approved opening the first formal negotiating chapter for both countries on June the 15th, Budapest has now stopped a joint letter outlining the bloc's position, a move requiring unanimous approval.The issue will be revisited next week.

Ukraine hopes to open all six negotiating clusters by mid -July, but that timetable is now uncertain.Prime Minister Petro Magyar has argued against opening all clusters simultaneously, saying it would be premature and unfair to Western Balkan countries that have pursued EU membership for years.He said there are six clusters in total and we do not think opening them all at once is a good idea.The ink on the first one isn't even dry yet.He said a premature move would send the wrong message to the countries of the Western Balkans, Serbia, Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia, which has spent years working towards EU membership.Next, and Russia has publicly accused the United States of failing to honour unspecified understandings allegedly reached between Putin and Donald Trump at their Alaska summit last August.

For three days now, senior Russian officials, including Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Ryabkov, have complained that Washington has not fulfilled its commitments.Since the Alaska summit, the Kremlin has often referred to the spirit of anchorage, pretending some sort of agreement or understanding was reached, and alluding to Russia's contention that Donald Trump is sympathetic to its central demand that Ukraine give up the whole of its Donbass region in return for a freezing of battle lines elsewhere.The recent change in rhetoric reflects Russia's concerns about mounting military and economic pressure, as well as disappointment that Washington has not resumed efforts to negotiate an end to the war.Speaking yesterday, Putin said the entire West was working for Kiev.And his foreign policy advisor, Yuri Ushakov, tried to reinforce his idea that agreements have been made, or at least positions agreed, saying only one side had remained committed to the understandings, while the other side, as it now appears, has not been fully able to do its part.Then, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the lack of recent oomph from the Trump administration may have been a US ploy to buy time.

to rearm the Kiev regime.James, what do you think about this whole spirit of anchorage thing?

I think it's an important reference point to keep going back to, Dom.When the Kremlin uses this sort of language, it's really a propaganda mechanic that it uses to tell its media that Putin is this peacemaking leader that he always tries to get, you know, he always wants to project the image of a peacemaking leader.And this spirit of anchorage is really the Kremlin's propaganda stick to prove this point, i .e.Putin went to Anchorage in August last year, made a deal with Trump, and peace was on the cusp.And then Trump and the US and the Nazi Ukrainians and Nazi Europeans were duplicit and went back on the various promises.

And what happens is, when the Kremlin is under pressure on the battlefield, or things aren't going particularly well at home, Lavrov is generally wheeled out to trot out this line of breaking the spirit of anchorage.Look at us, we want peace.It's the US, it's the Europeans who are pitching war.I think this is another indicator of just how worried Putin and the Kremlin are about the way this whole conflict is unfolded.

Yeah, I mean, it is interesting how often they They go on about it.I mean, I was there and as far as I was concerned, the only spirit of anchorage that I could detect was the godawful whiff that Conor Stringer caused when he ate that elk burger and bunged up the chemical loo in the Winnebago.Anyway, that's a story for another day.Now, Czech President Petro Parvel has filed a lawsuit with the Constitutional Court challenging Prime Minister Andrej Babis' decision to exclude him from the Czech delegation to the NATO summit in Ankara.President Parvel argues the move limits the constitutional role of the president and seeks clarification.on who has the authority to decide the head of state's participation in such meetings.

The dispute follows months of disagreement between the two leaders and comes as Babish faces scrutiny over reducing military spending below NATO's 2 % target.Petro Pavel maintains the case concerns constitutional powers rather than personal attendance at a single event.Now, the next one, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will visit Azerbaijan and Armenia next week as the EU seeks to strengthen its presence in the South Caucasus and develop the Middle Corridor trade route linking Europe and Asia.Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said the corridor is increasingly important for Europe's trade, energy and digital security, as traditional routes through Russia and the Red Sea face disruption.The EU aims to reduce transit times by investing in infrastructure and border crossings.Brussels is also deepening ties with Armenia, while maintaining engagement with Azerbaijan, viewing the region as strategically important for reducing dependence on Russia.

On Friday, the European Commission disbursed 34 million euro, that's nearly 40 million US dollars, in immediate support to help Armenian businesses mitigate the impact of Russian trade restrictions.Kos said, this is a priority for the European Commission, securing our trade, energy and digital links via routes we can trust.James, I seem to remember you have mentioned Armenia, Azerbaijan and South Caucasus once or twice since we've had you on.So I think you might be able to offer a little bit of comment here.

Yeah, so I think the important thing with this trade, the EU, the latest EU bung to Armenia is it's not very much, is it?It's actually a very small amount compared to the hundreds of millions of dollars or a hundred millions of euros that Armenia will lose out selling flowers, brandy, apricots and the rest, processed fish to Russia.So I think that point has to be made.I mean, what is this?This is a tiny drop in the ocean.Also, how is this dispersed to the actual businesses, the workers who are impacted by these very harsh import restrictions imposed by Russia.

They were imposed, we have to remind readers and listeners and viewers, that they're imposed because Russia was trying to influence a parliamentary election at the beginning of this year.Essentially, the Armenian Prime Minister wants to pull the country close to the EU, the Kremlin wants to stop that.In the event, it was a pretty much a 50 -50 split.But the point is, the Kremlin imposed these trade restrictions The EU has responded, but I would say in a rather weak way.This in no way makes up for the amount of trade that Armenia is losing.Russia is by far Armenia's most important and biggest trade partner, and the Kremlin obviously knows this, so for them to snap on sanctions is a huge economic hit.

It will take time.I'm sure Armenia and the EU will ramp up trade ties, but that will take time.So in the meantime, Armenia is going to have to limp along.If the EU wants to really bong Armenia for a meaningful amount, they're going to have to increase the amount of payments.

So what are we seeing here?Because there could be the suggestion that the EU invested certainly time and political capital in Armenia ahead of the elections because he didn't want pro -Russian parties to win.And now it's kind of, phew, that was a close one.They're not that bothered.34 million euros is not a huge amount, as you say.Is that what we've seen in the past?

Just remind me about Moldova.Now, obviously, Moldova is a candidate nation for the EU.So there's a slightly different dynamic.But again, has itthe EU stance support your very obvious political clout being lent in to support Maya Sandu and Moldova?Did that sort of go a bit cool after the election?

Is this normal form for the EU?

I think it's very difficult to compare Moldova and Armenia.I think Moldova is obviously much more Well, it shares land borders of EU countries.It's got a very strong Romanian heritage.A lot of the Moldavians who live in Moldova already have Romanian passports, which are obviously EU.So the EU is much more integral to what's going on in Moldova.Armenia is a very foreign country.

for the EU.It's a real outlier.And they've only really just gotten their teeth into it in the last couple of years.So I'd be wary about drawing any comparison between Moldova and Armenia.I do think, although the headlines the European headlines after the election were like, this is a huge endorsement for a pro -EU trajectory for Armenia.Nikol Pashinyan, he's the Armenian Prime Minister, he's won a majority in Parliament.

That's a quirk of the Armenian parliamentary system, which we won't get into now.In fact, it was a very underwhelming victory, as we've discussed on this podcast.And I think they would generally have been disappointed.Whether or not this is a result of their disappointment, I don't know.They have to be very careful promising a lot and achieving very little.The important thing is Pashinyan did not win the two -thirds supermajority he needed in parliament to get the big stuff done.

And that is a big problem for him.That's a big problem for the EU.He is now thrashing around.He's gone after his political opponents inside Armenia.The leaders of three pro -Russia parties have basically been banned from leaving the countries.They've been accused of tax evasion.

One of them has been arrested.I'm not saying that none of that happened.I don't know.But it doesn't look good.It doesn't look good for the EU's man in Armenia.He has been accused by neutrals as well as his opponents of politicising the police force, the judiciary in Armenia since the election.

I think the EU has a huge battle on its hands if it really is going to drag Armenia away from the Kremlin and towards its own modus operandi.

Well, thanks, James.Armin is not going to go away and neither will our interest in it and your expert advice.Thank you very much.Now, let's bring you an update on the 185 billion euro in frozen Russian assets in the European Union that's currently held in Belgium.Now, Adelaide has been speaking again to Hugo Dixon, commentator at large for Reuters and one of the leading campaigners for unlocking those billions for Ukraine.Hugo starts by reminding us how the EU failed to unlock those assets back in December, thanks largely to Belgian opposition.

and how a separate 90 billion euro loan not using the frozen assets was agreed instead.They then discuss the latest initiative to reduce the risk for Belgium and therefore potentially unfreeze those assets.Here's their conversation.

What happened in December is at the European Council, that's the summit of all the European leaders, there was a big push behind this reparations loan and it was something that the European Commission was backing, it was something that Germany was backing, but the problem was that both Russia and America were twisting Belgium's arm and trying to persuadeit not to agree.to this reparations loan.As you said, 185 billion euros of the 210 billion euros that are inside the EU are actually held in Belgium.And it's understandable that Belgium, which is a small to medium -sized economy, shouldn't want to take all the risk on its own shoulders.And so there was a long discussion about to what extent the other countries could come in and take some of the risk off Belgium's shoulders and ultimately it failed and then the European leaders they agreed a fallback plan which was a much smaller loan a 90 billion euro loan which was funded not from the frozen Russian assets but was funded by the European Union itself borrowing money to lend to Ukraine.

And that's what they agreed and there was a long hoo -ha about that because three countries decided they didn't want to take part in that and they were given a pass.That was Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, and although they'd agreed to it in December, then Viktor Orban, who was the Prime Minister of Hungary until recently, he went back on his word.And so the whole initiative then got delayed by several more months, during which the money didn't flow to Ukraine, and Ukraine's ability to move on to the front foot was therefore hampered.But ultimately that 90 billion loan is now flowing or about to flow to Ukraine.And so that's where we've got to.But the other thing to notice about that 90 billion euro loan is it was supposed to fund

Ukraine for two years.But that was on the assumption that there was another 45 billion euros that was coming from outside the EU, including from the UK.But there's very little sign of any other money coming from outside the EU.And so that 90 billion euros is not going to last two years until the end of next year.It's going to run out probably in about a year from now.This is where our new idea comes in, which is we're calling it the Russian transfer.

And it's a very simple idea.Move the frozen Russian account of Belgium to the European Union itself.So it's not any longer sitting on small Belgium's shoulders, but it's sitting on the broad shoulders of the European Union itself.That's the key point.idea that we've launched and we have a website out called therussiantransfer .com and we have a draft regulation which actually sets out exactly how this can be done in European Union legalese.

So can you take it apart and take us through how it's possible to move those frozen assets from Euroclear to the EU?

To be clear, when we say move the account, we're not just talking about moving the assets.we're also talking about moving the liabilities.For example, say you had an account with Barclays and it was moved to Deutsche Bank.Barclays would no longer have a liability to you.It would then be Deutsche Bank that has the liability to you.And there is one important precedent for it being done with sovereign assets.

because here we're talking about the Russian sovereign assets.And this is what happened after the fall of Saddam Hussein, that Iraqi sovereign assets outside Iraq were all transferred to a single account at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York.So there is precedent for this.Now, in terms of the legal basis for doing it.Our draft regulation sets this out in quite a lot of detail and this is under EU law and essentially it is using the same sort of arguments that have been used in for freezing the assets in the first place.If you want even more going into the details of this, there is in EU law under the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, there is a particular article called Article 122 and this is the so -called emergency clause in the EU treaties.

When the European Union initially froze these Russian accounts, it did it on a six -monthly basis.Every six months we came up for a new renewal and every six months Viktor Orban, who was still the Prime Minister of Hungary, he would create a fuss and there was a mini -crisis and then they'd find a solution.Well, what happened in December is that the EU decided to use a different legal basis for freezing these accounts, and that is this famous Article 122, the Emergency Clause.And the key thing about that Emergency Clause is it doesn't require unanimity, but it means thatcountry or another country doesn't have a veto.And what they did in December is that they used that regulation to freeze the Russian accounts indefinitely, until such a point as Russia stopped its war and paid damages to Ukraine.

Now, we know that Russia is never going to willingly pay damages to Ukraine, so those assets have been frozen, one could say, indefinitely.And what we are proposing is exactly the same regulation, Article 122, can be used to mandate the transfer of the Russian account from Ukraine Belgium from Euroclear to the European Union.itself.And to be clear, this is, and we talk about Euroclear because it is such a big part of the frozen Russian accounts, but this is something that would apply to all of the frozen Russian accounts inside the EU.And furthermore, just to give you an extra further little quizzle on it, those countries that have frozen Russian accounts outside the EU, such as the UK, they would be invited to transfer their accounts to the same facility, if they wished to.But that would not be mandatory.

That would be a voluntary transfer.And the argument is that this is necessary to do this because of the way that Russia has been bullying and threatening Belgium, and it's necessary to make this transfer for financial stability, because the Belgians have been saying that it's really very risky.them to have 185 billion euro potential liability, even if the chance is tiny, if it were to hit them, that's a massive amount of money.But it's also necessary for public security.

What are some of the conversations that you've had with Belgium?If you've had any about this, how do they feel?What is the mood music on their end?From what I understand, moving the assets would be mandatory under EU law, so they can't really object to it.But also, I'm very curious about the Russian bullying that you've mentioned.How has that impacted them?

It would be mandatory indeed.And so Belgium would not have to agree.It would be better if Belgium didn't disagree.And it would be better, I would say, if Belgium was to abstain on the vote, because it would be able to say to the Russians, we didn't agree, we were forced to.We have not been able to have a high -level conversation with the Belgian government.about this and I really would hope that they would wish to engage with us and we have tried.

But one thing to remember is what Bart de Wever, the Belgian Prime Minister, said in October after one of the European Councils, because this was actually discussed at several European Councils, he said that it would be the happiest day, then he said, actually a happy day in my career if the entire Russian account, including the liabilities, was transferred out of Belgium.What he was very unhappy with was the idea of the assets goingwithout the liabilities.And our proposal addresses precisely that concern.It says not only the assets, but also the liabilities.You would no longer have this on your shoulders.

We think that the risks to Belgium and Euroclear from complying with this transfer, mandatory transfer, we think that they are next to zero.However, the European Union would also, under our proposal, provide both Belgium and Europe, and indeed any other banks or financial institutions that do the same thing, with an indemnity so that if they were financially worse off as a result of perhaps some legal action that Russia might take against them, that European Union would make them whole.And so we take Belgium of the firing line, we take Euroclear out of the firing line.There were stories, if you remember, towards the end of last year about threats that these were, let's say, not completely confirmed, but threats that were received by the boss of Euroclear.There were stories that the Euroclear executives needed to get heightened security.So it wasn't just legal threats.

And then there were drones that appeared at Brussels airport.Again, there was no absolute confirmation that this was connected with the frozen Russian assets, but Boris Pistoriusthe German defense minister, said that he thought that this was connected.This was a sign from the Russians to the Belgians not to transfer the assets, the cash at that stage, which was being discussed.What we're talking about, though, is not transferring the cash.We're talking about transferring the entire account to the European Union itself.

So although we haven't had a high -level discussion with the Belgian government, we think that this idea should appeal to them and we would love to have a proper discussion to go through the details of it with them.

What about conversations with the EU?How amenable are they to this idea?

Without going into the full details, we have had discussions with different parts of the different EU institutions, Commission, External Action Service, European Council and obviously various parliamentarians.And we think that there's quite a lot of openness.There's quite a lot of openness.There's quite a lot of view that this is a good idea, a workable idea.The thing is that to get this project to happen, it's not enough.to have interest at the sort of official level, you need the leaders to be behind it.

And although this is something that has been discussed with at least three European Union leaders, I can't say yet that any of them is fully championingthis idea.My concern is that we will get the normal thing that happens at the European Union, which is they wait for there to be a crisis, and the crisis will happen probably early next year when people think, oh my god, Ukraine's going to run out of cash.And then they beaver away, and then they probably come round to our idea.But that would be better than nothing.But it's a massively wasted opportunity, because now we know that, I mean, Ukraine is doing well on the battlefield.

Putin is increasingly vulnerable.The most effective thing that the European Union can do is to get this vast amount of money onto the table, the 210 billion euros.That starts to change the calculations.So my concern is that the European Union will move late on this.Now is the time to act, to press the advantage, to come in behind Ukraine.If they wait until there's a crisis, let's say next year, well, okay, it will be helpful.

but the year will have had another year of war, another year of destruction, another year of death, unnecessary death, and probably the ultimate deal that we get for Ukraine will not be as good as if we press their advantage now.And the final thing I would say, Adélie, is that although I think that the European Unionwill ultimately come round to this, I'm not sure.And there's always a risk.And it's when you've got a complex organization like the European Union with 27 countries, each country has its own electoral cycle.It's sort of like playing Russian roulette with 27 canisters.

And one of these might produce another far -right nationalist politician like Victor Orban.If you've got a big country, and the big country that everybody's worried about is France, and there is of course the French presidential elections, if that produces a far -right nationalist politician, it's going to be much, much harder to get this sort of idea over the line.So grab the window of opportunity while you can, press Ukraine's advantage while you can and try to get an end to this ghastly war as soon as possible.And that's why this Russian transfer is an essential first step.

Isn't there also a case for the EU being able to take the lead in terms of the potential next rounds of negotiations and peace talks.I mean, peace is doing a lot of heavy lifting there, but at least the negotiations that the US has withdrawn from since the beginning of the Iran war because it has other things to worry about.That's something that Zelensky called in his letter at the end of last week, for Europe to take the lead and for conversations to potentially restart.between Ukraine and Russia?There's a symbolism that's very important here, isn't there?

I think so, yes.I think that you're right to point out that America isthe ball, but the European Union hasn't really picked the ball up and run with it.And this is an opportunity for them to do so.And the other thing I would say is that if you can put this 210 billion euros on the table, of course, that's not the same as actually getting the cash.to Ukraine.

It's the first step as you move the account from Belgium and from other places to the European Union itself.But it will then be very easy to move to the second step, which is to start to deploy that money to help Ukraine.It's quite a lot of money.And what's more, you'll probably then be able to get other countries that have got frozen assets to do something similar.If you remember last December when the reparations loan was on the table and the EU was planning to do that or hoping to do that, the UK government said, we're going to do the same thing.If you do it, we'll follow suit.

And there's about 10 billion euros.in the UK and then there's money in other countries too.So if you can get, you'd actually end up with more than 210 billion euros.The key thing then is that you're looking at something that would probably give Ukraine another two or three years.And what's critical is it would bridge the gap between now and the end of Donald Trump's presidency.And then if you're sitting in Moscow, you're thinking, my God, Ukraine is funded until the end of Donald Trump's presidency.

And the opinion polls aren't looking so good for the Republicans in America.and even if a Republican is elected again as president in America, it might be someone like Rubio, who's actually anti -Russian.You might not end up with a J .D.Vance figure.So from Russia's perspective, they're looking at a situation where not only is Ukraine going to be funded until the end of the Trump's presidency.

But then after the Trump's presidency, you might then have a tough, normal American president who actually views Russia as a threat to America rather than one of his buddies.And that could start changing the calculations too.So I think that this is a great opportunity for the European Union.And I think it's also a great opportunity for some of the leaders within the European Union, such as not only Friedrich Merz in Germany, but also Macron, Emmanuel Macron in France.He only has a year left.

For his legacy, absolutely.

This is one of the things that he could do which would make a big difference.And if he could make common cause with the German Chancellor on this, that would also show that the Franco -German engine that drives Europe forward is back in action again.So I think there's a lot of opportunity here.If I was betting, rather than speaking to you as someone who is a campaigner, as a betting man, I think that the European Union will waste this opportunity.But as a campaigner, I'm trying to convince them that that would be an extremely foolish thing to do.

Well, you've laid out your case very well.Could we also imagine a scenario where not all of the money goes to Ukraine, but Europe uses some of that money to buy weapons for Ukraine through the Pearl Mechanism, for example?

I certainly think that some of the money could be used to buy weapons for Ukraine.I think that certainly is a possible scenario.Whether via the Pearl Mechanism, I'm not so sure, because there's a lot of controversy about the Pearl Mechanism, which is buying weapons from America.given the way that Donald Trump has been so unhelpful with the defense of Ukraine, and also given the fact that you can't actually get hold of a lot of the American kit at the moment, but who knows.But the one thing I would say is that there's hope, but the other thing is morale.And it's really important in war to have morale on your side and the morale in Ukraine has been quite low over the winter.

Now it's perking up a bit and the morale in Russia is declining.If you put this Russian transfer into effect and you move 210 billion euros out of Belgium and other places to the EU itself, it's like putting a loaded gun on the table.And that will be a big boost to Ukrainian morale and a big knock to Russian morale.And that can also be a key swing factor in this war.And this is the most important thing, I think, that the European Union can do in the coming months.

Well, thanks, Adelaide.Let's now go to final thoughts.James, Russia's 2026 Hide and Seek champion has finally revealed herself.

That's right.This is last week, Dom.Central Bank Chief Elvira Naibullina, she's the long standing head of the central bank in Russia.She's well regarded or had been well regarded in international banking circle.She's been Putin's central banker for a long time now.We know that she was out, she was she was you know, against the war in Ukraine, but she's stuck around to handle the finances of the central bank regardless.

She had been missing for a month, missing in action, sparking a lot of speculation that she might have resigned, she might have walked out of the bank and, you know, said enough's enough finally.She didn't turn up at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, the set piece sort of financial economic business meeting every year, and she missed a couple of other meetings with Putin, Central Bank, Putin, Kremlin meetings, but she did turn up last week for an interest rate decision by the Russian Central Bank, which cheered people, they want to see her at the helm.The importance here, and I know I keep talking about the quality of life in Russia and how it's getting worse and diminished.The importance here is Putin's whole contract with the Russian people was to get the war done pretty much outside and for them not to be impacted by it.But then, you know, when the central bank chief goes missing for a month, it sparks panic and chaos and people like this, you know, no one has any control about what's going on anymore.So You know, I keep banging on about this, what I think is a very important indicator.

How is life in Russia measuring up?Is it getting more chaotic or less chaotic?You know, this is why we talk about it.The central bank chief going missing for a month and then turning up is an indicator of that.There was another indicator or two more indicatorsI just want to flag up to you, Dom, if I may.

Rostat, that's the Kremlin's official statistics agency.It has posted that GDP, Russia's GDP shrank by 0 .2 % in Q1, the first quarter of this year.We know that Rostat has been under pressure, it's been criticized quite heavily by independent economists for massaging.data, so we can assume it's actually worse than that.But for them to post an actual reduction in Russian GDP is an admission that the economy is doing extremely poorly.We know this because we keep talking about it.

And it also compares in Q1 2025, they said that the Russian economy had risen by 1 .3%.So a huge swing there.you know, linked to all the factors we keep talking about.And the final point is...Putin himself has turned up.

When you're talking about the hide -and -seek champion of Russia or the Where's Wally's champion of Russia 2026, Putin himself is in amongst it.He hadn't left Moscow other than a couple of quick trips to St. Petersburg all year.And suddenly he turns up in Kazan for a meeting between Russian businessmen and Russian economists and their Far East Asia counterparts.He turns up in Kazan.He also does a walk around so it's an Orthodox Church a mosque and then he meets and greets people in this sort of very prescribed Rehearsed manner that the Kremlin likes to do Says the lady people away from this sort of thing.He's walking around with the governor of Tatarstan That's the region that Kazan's in And the importance it here is he generally does these walk arounds when he's feeling under great pressure when you can see the pinch point.

When Putin makes time in his diary to walk around it means he's feeling popularity is against him or he's been advised that he's got to get out and meet and greet.He's been hiding in his bunker all year, we know he's very worried about these drone attacks, these missile attacks, he's very nervous about his own health, so he's finally gone out to Kazan and while he's there he had this PR stunt.I think the indicators are The Kremlin is increasingly worried that the optics look so crazy that they have to, you know, make sure Putin gets out and about.

Well, there may not be any spontaneity in any of Putin's walkarounds and his film footage.There's certainly spontaneity here because you can tell by the strange colour of crimson that James has developed over the hour we've been speaking to him that this was very much live and direct from the Droitwich Massive.James, thank you so much for joining us today.Adelaide, Hugo, thank you for talking to us earlier on.We'll be back again tomorrow, folks, same time, same place, but from the Telegraph newsroom in London.I wish you all a very good afternoon.