Putin’s Oreshnik strike was his final ace card, he’s playing straight into Ukraine’s strategy

It's pretty clear that over the weekend, Russian forces have launched some pretty devastating attacks into Ukraine, particularly in Kiev and some of the surrounding cities.Now, President Zelensky detailed a few days ago that he believed the Russians were planning to use their Oreshnik missile.This is much vaunted by Vladimir Putin as being a hypersonic missile flying 10 times the speed of sound, completely unstoppable by anything the Ukrainians have.It's a nuclear -capable missile.The Russians say it can fly 21 ,000 miles and hit any target.It has six warheads to it.

And we also know quite a lot about this missile.It has been a long time in development, and it's had a pretty sorry development.

Over the last 10 or 15 years, the Russians have been developing it.and most of their test fires until recently have all ended in failure.

But Putin, as he is struggling, we only saw the victory parade a few weeks ago, only went ahead with the permission of President Zelensky, he said he wouldn't attack Moscow at a much scale down.And then last weekend, Ukraine did attack Moscow, and the Russians seemed unable to stop their attack.

So this seems to be in retaliation.But this missile, certainly Western intelligence is saying that it's not nearly as capable as the Russians say.Maybe it can go about 10 ,000 miles.It's still in development.Ukrainian intelligence, which is usually pretty accurate, says they've only got four missiles.And very interestingly, it wasn't fired at Kiev itself.

It wasn't fired at the capital, which is very well defended.It was fired at a very small town called Bila Tuskova, which is about 50 miles from Kiev.from Kiev therefore doesn't have much air defense.The missile hit the post office and a square.Now there was a tremendous explosion and I understand four people were killed and a number injured but there didn't seem to be six warheads so it seems that Putin is getting increasingly anxious about And his super weapon, his hypersonic weapon, he's used.And yeah, it created damage.

But it created in a poorly, very lightly defended town.It hit industrial areas.And all the other attacks this weekend by Russia seems to have hit civilian targets, not military targets at all.On the converse, Ukraine is attacking military targets deep into Russia, destroying a $50 million a spy plane only a few days ago, and as we've discussed before, destroying a lot of Russia's oil capacity.But it's very clear that Putin is under pressure in the Russian press at the moment.There's lots of discord.

There's military personnel and others who are complaining about the way Putin's conducting the war.And by using this missile, he seems to be trying to get on the front foot.

It seems to be desperation, but But actually, it really, you know, I think to anybody who knows a little bit about this sort of stuff, it's highlighted perhaps the really precarious position that Putin is in at the moment, if he has to resort to his final super weapon that we now know is not quite as he stated it.I think Putin is trying to dress it up as something it's not.Now, we know it flies very deep into space.And therefore, because it's its trajectory and flight time, it's relatively straightforward.for intelligence services to pick it up, to identify where it is.Its flight path makes it, although it flies very quickly, makes it possible.

Now, other hypersonic missiles Russia has fired at Ukraine have been taken down by Patriot missiles, which, you know, the Patriot system, although it's updated regularly, is quite an old system.And we had it in the first Gulf War over 30 years ago.So, I think Putin is trying to dress this up as something it's not.I mean, it really is a little bit of what we'd call a white elephant, something that seems to be rather grand.But actually, when you look into it, it's not really.I suppose the inference that Putin's giving as well is this is a nuclear capable missile.

And perhaps he is suggesting that if Ukraine doesn't acquiesce, then they might go to nuclear.But I think the nuclear issue is a non -issue.You know, might be a crazy dictator, but he's not suicidal.He knows that he cannot fire a nuclear weapon at Ukraine without getting a whole lot of hurt back in the same direction.So I think the main thing that the use of this missile is showing desperation.And if it is his super missile, he's just fired off 25 percent of his capability and he ain't got much more left.

So let us hope this is an indication that perhaps we are nearer to a peace deal, because on the ground, Ukraine is starting to push the Russians back towards Russia.They're making considerable progress everywhere.

And of course, we know that the Ukrainians can now hit Moscow or almost at will, and people in Moscow are getting increasingly frustrated and angry with the leadership in the Kremlin.

This missile, people are suggesting it's about $50 million a copy, and he's only got a few, and he's fired them at a civilian target, which sure, yeah, it's killed some people and injured people and had a bit of destruction on the ground.But, you know, it hasn't changed the situation in Ukraine.It hasn't destroyed any big Ukrainian military bases.And I think it is absolute desperation.It's clear that Putin is running out of road.He's running out of things that he can do.

And to me, this seems like a huge miscalculation.Had he kept this in his back pocket, as it were, maybe he would be in a better position to influence and negotiate now, even if these are.even better than he's suggesting.He's only got three left.And as we know, the Russian economy is in freefall.He's got very little oil that he can export.

He was hoping he would take advantage of the fact the price of oil is $100 a barrel at the moment.

But he just doesn't have oil to export because a lot of his oil making capability has been destroyed.And his own people can't even get petrol for their cars.So Yeah, this is desperation and let's hope it signifies at last that the tide is changing in Ukraine and Ukraine's getting onto the front foot.And let us hope if the West, Europe and the Americans get fully behind Ukraine, that they at last have the chance to get a just peace deal that they so rightly deserve.I think Ukraine's strategy is absolutely working.They are shown they are the very best people in the world at the moment and fighting in this drone infested battlefield.

At the tactical level, at the lowest level, they're making progress on all fronts.They're pushing the Russians back.The Institute of War in the US is saying that they are taking back 50 square miles of land in the last couple of weeks.Might sound small, but in this context, it's very significant.We know that Ukraine long range strikes with a lot of their homegrown capability that their own made drones have really paralyzed Russian oil industry and other targets.And we know that Ukraine can now attack Moscow almost at will.

They've destroyed the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, and they're controlling some key areas into Crimea as well.So You know, it does seem that Ukraine is very much on the front foot.And the fact that they are now exporting their drones to the Middle East to protect Middle Eastern countries against Iranian attack, and virtually everybody in the world is going to Ukraine to learn how to fight this war, they are doing very much better than the Russians.And with all the dissent in Moscow, Putin must feel very uncomfortable.And he might well have thrown his last ace card with this Roshnik missile that he fired over the weekend and let us hope if as long as Ukraine can keep up the momentum, Europe and the US fully support Ukraine, maybe it's 2026 when we can get a just peace deal that is acceptable to the Ukrainian people.