Putin's peace narrative 'rendered useless' by Zelensky's cunning move | Scott Lucas

Where's your next play politically?Try to get the Americans on your side?Well, the Americans are checked out of the building and the Europeans may be stepping in to try to bolster Ukraine politically as well as with economic support.Your next play psychologically?We're winning.Why stand in our way?

Well, Ukraine sort of shot that fox with St. Petersburg a few days ago.

Hello and welcome to Frontline.I'm Maddie Hale.We're going to get stuck into all the latest news on the Russia -Ukraine war.My guest today is Professor Scott Lucas from the Clinton Institute at the University College Dublin.Scott, thank you for joining me today.

Yeah, it's great to see you here on this side of the wall as opposed to the Trump Report side of it.

I know I'm a celebrity guest today on the show.So apologies if this was a disappointment for any of the viewers, but let's get stuck into the latest story.So Ukraine launched one of its largest drone attacks of the war on the final day of Putin's flagship economic forum in St. Petersburg, targeting military and energy infrastructure deep inside Russia.The timing was, of course, highly symbolic, turning what was meant to be, you know, a showcase of Russia's economic strength into a reminder that the war can still reach key Russian cities and strategic assets.But Ukraine appears increasingly willing to strike deep inside Russia as well.So does this put meaningful pressure on Putin, Scott, or risk escalating the conflict without changing Moscow's calculations?

I think it continues the pressure on the Kremlin.When you put it in the context of the fact that they're not advancing in their invasion, which of course is now, what, 51 and a half months, you know, since it began.And the specifics as to why they show up Russian vulnerabilities and thus put pressure on the Kremlin, it's military, it's political, and it's psychological.There are actually two sets of attacks around the St. PetersburgInternational Economic Forum.There was one set of attacks on the Wednesday, which is when delegations were traveling in to attend the forum.

And these weren't just simply showpiece attacks.In those Wednesday attacks, as well as the ones on Saturday that you referred to on the final day of the conference, the Ukraine hit energy and military facilities.So they hit the St. Petersburg oil refinery, which is one of the largest in the country, caused significant damage.They caused serious damage to the point of destruction of a Russian warship.that was in dry dock for repairs in St. Petersburg.And then, as I say, three days later on the Saturday, they come back and they hit them again.

Right.So what it showed in terms from a military standpoint is, look, even around your showpiece sites, your key sites that are important year round, but would be highlighted during this week.Russia doesn't have the air defenses to prevent all the Ukrainian drones and missiles getting through.And the wider context of that is, is that Ukraine has been hitting energy, military facilities, factories, chemical engineering plants, almost every night this year.These are escalating attacks causing more and more serious damage.That has economic consequences, which of course means that Russia finds it tougher to get its oil moved.

to then either use the oil internally or to export it.At one point, Russian oil exports were down 47%.We now have rationing and serious rationing in parts of Russia and occupied territory.And I can talk a little bit later about Crimea, if it comes up, where we've got new information.So you have the military and the economic effects, but think about the political and psychological effects here.All the way they're up to the conference.

Because, you know, as part of the punishment for the job that I do, I have to follow pro -Kremlin activists on social media, as well as the Kremlin itself.People from more than 130 countries are arriving.20 ,000 people!They are all coming to the wonderful, world -leading Economic Forum, and they will be addressed by Vladimir Putin, and this will show that Russia is not isolated, but it is leading the world!And so, on Wednesday, while top, world -renowned economists like Steven Seagal, yeah, that's Steven Seagal, the one that used to be in action films while he was a top economist, while they're arriving for this, while the US influencer Candace Owens, a hard -right polemicist who now has fallen out with other hard -right Trump polemicists, while the Kremlin is bringing her across, while they are getting the former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in, who they've worked with closely, the delegates can't necessarily get to the conference because the airport shut down.And if they can't get to the conference, well, their jolly little trip for Vladimir's love fest has been, if not ruined, at least a bit of a dampener.

And then after Vladimir pops up on Friday, We're the leading country in the world.Really?Okay, these air defenses.Yeah, we've got some issues here We're gonna have to deal with that but we're the leading country in the world and we will win this war and we will take this territory and then on Saturday after Putin gives a speech Ukraine hits again and It was it was what the Kremlin Maddie had actually feared last month, around the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow.And remember that they were so fearful of that, they said, cease fire, cease fire, don't attack us, cease fire.And Ukraine agreed to that for political reasons, and they didn't.

But now,a month later, they come in.I will preface this, Mattie.I'm not sure because we've got our friends on Trump Report who like to come in and make our comments.We've got our friends here on Frontline.Oh my God, you're predicting the collapse of Russia.

You've been saying this for five years.No, we're not predicting the collapse of Russia.We're not predicting that Vladimir is going to be assassinated, thrown out of power.What we're saying here is that the Russian invasion has stalled out.that Ukraine is moving from resistance to strength in countering that invasion, and that Russia faces serious constraints, political and economic, as well as military, to try to advance this.Where's their next play, in other words, to finally conquer Ukraine, or at least seize a good portion of its territory?

Well, you mentioned the psychological impacts of these strikes and, of course, what we saw on Victory Day, where Putin was hiding their tanks, hiding all their weaponry and, as you said, agreed to a ceasefire.But how humiliating do you think these strikes have been for Putin, given that this was coming at a time where he was trying to project strength and confidence at Russia's economic forum?

Well, Putin will never say he's humiliated.And we have to say, you know, look, this is a guy who has a great deal of confidence in his abilities.This is, you know, as authoritarians quite often do, you know, as people who try to conquer other countries try to do.But I would say if he's not humiliated, I say you can see the Kremlin's concern.You know, you can see it in the statements that they put out.And the concern has been evident in that for weeks they had held off.

They said, look, we're not going to go back to the negotiating table with Ukraine.These were the talks that were held earlier this year with the U .S.as a broker.Their tune changed a couple weeks ago.It's like, oh, no, no, no.

We'll accept talks now.We'll go back to the talks now.And I think the idea that they're going back to the talks now is for two reasons.One is they're not winning this on the military front.So it's not like they can say, we're not going to talk because we're going to overrun Ukraine on the front lines.We're going to break Ukraine's will to resist with our own aerial attacks, which are quite serious, of course.

But I think the second reason why they said they're going to come back to the table here is that they're trying to somehow get the Trump administration back in, in terms of the idea of, look, there's a paradoxical statement from the Russians, which is, we're winning the war, but we're the victim here.We're winning the war, but we're the victim.The real arena where this has to play out, I think, has to be that when the Kremlin has to go forth to the Russian population, and when they have to say, look, just keep sacrificing.Look, we've had to restrict your internet and limit it because of security concerns.You need to accept that.Look, we're needing to cut non -military spending because we have to increase military spending to try to keep this going.

You need to accept that.Look, we need to get more manpower for the front line.You need to accept that.It's not like the Russian people are going to rise up and overthrow Putin, but will there be signs that the Russian public are tired of this?Because the fundamental is, Ukraine is not saying with these attacks inside Russia, we are going to conquer Russia.This is not like a Ukraine -NATO plot to overrun Moscow.

What Ukraine is trying to do is to get leverage to get a ceasefire on the basis of the current front lines.That's what they want.And that is precisely what Putin has held out against for months because he wants the rest of this strategic area in Eastern Ukraine, the Donetsk region.

I want to get your thoughts on what happened late last week, which was, of course, the US Congress passing the Ukraine Support Act.It was ato 195 vote providing more than $1 billion in aid and up to $8 billion in loans and imposing more sanctions on Russia's economy.So importantly, as you and I have discussed on the Trump report, We've seen more Republicans, you know, moving against Trump.So in this particular case, we saw 18 Republicans joining Democrats to pass this bill directly opposed by the Trump administration.So of course, Scott still needs to pass the Senate.

But what was your reaction to this?

It's part of a slow, gradual claim of power by a handful of Republicans, and I've got to emphasize a handful, against, you know, the wannabe authoritarianism of the Trump folks, which extends to the Ukraine issue.We can talk about with respect to other issues as well, you know, on the domestic front, where we're seeing signs that some Republicans are just chafing at Trump's our way or the highway approach.But specifically on Ukraine, there was always the potential for this, Matty, because remember, once upon a time, the Republican Party stood against Russian aggression.You know, I'm old enough to remember that.I'm old enough to remember Ronald Reagan, you know, and I'm old enough to remember when, if the Soviet Union or then Russia had attacked a neighboring country, Republicans would stand up against that.Now, Trump completely changed the calculus on that.

And by the way, I'm just going to remind folks, he changed the calculus on that because while he did not owe his assent to the White House in 2016 to the Russians, they certainly gave him a helping hand, to say the least.And the Republicans, because their guy in the White House sort of went along with that.Now, during the first term, they did push against Trump.So, for example, they made sure that Ukraine got aid against what was already a Russian attempt to split the country.And then they got sanctions against Russia, despite Trump not liking those.But the second term, the Trump folks, of course, were just completely breaking with Ukraine.

And you get 18 Republicans who now, more than 18 months into the, or almost 18 months into the administration, are saying, look, you know, we need to provide defense for the country.Now, let me add a couple of caveats here, Mattie.First of all, this money for Ukraine was already allocated.We're not talking about new, fresh money.This was money that was already allocated, had been allocated by the Biden folks.and it was being held up by the Defense Department.

Secondly, there are 218 Republicans in the House of Representatives, the lower house of Congress.18 of them broke rank.So it's not like a majority of Republicans are defying Trump, but those 18 were enough because there was a narrow majority.The Republicans' majority is only three in the House at this point.And we're seeing signs of that in the Senate as well.Bring this all to around here.

This was sort of the low -hanging fruit.It's one thing for the Republicans to say, look, this aid that was already authorized to Ukraine, you need to go ahead and let it go through.When you know it will get serious is if the Republicans in Congress, both houses of Congress, adopt a serious sanctions package against the Russians.They've threatened to do so for months.Lindsey Graham will always talk about it.Yep, yep, yep, yep.

And then Lindsey will decide that he doesn't want to cross Trump.And so we don't get the threat of the 500 % tariffs as part of the sanctions.If that happens, then you know that's a serious challenge to Trump.

Yeah.And Lindsey Graham had, what, I think, 85 out of 100 senators on board with that.We were talking about it numerous, numerous times.Then we heard Trump said he'd greenlit it, said it was okay to vote on.We've never heard anything of it.So, I mean, we've been talking about this package for, I mean, sorry, this sanctions threat of 500 % sanctions on Russia for, God knows, well over a year.

But I want tokind of stay on this topic, Scott, because Zelensky is again calling for more Patriot systems and interceptors from the United States.But after repeated warnings that the United States stockpile, especially these Patriot missiles, are under strain, is Ukraine now running into the limits of what Washington can provide them?

I think Ukraine, Zelensky's play here is more political than military, precisely for the reason that you identified.Even if there was a shift in the Trump inner circle's thinking, and remember, there are huge barriers to that.Real estate developer Steve Witkoff, Trump's son -in -law Jared Kushner, who don't want to provide this assistance to Ukraine, as well as pop -gun Pete Huxeth, the defense secretary.Even if you could get around those folks.You know, the U .S.

has used up a lot of its patriots supporting Gulf states and Israel against Iran's retaliation in that very ill -fated U .S.-Israel war on Iran that's now passed 100 days.And indeed, the same thing in a related area, beyond air defense, in terms of Ukraine's long -range strikes.Same thing goes for the Tomahawk missiles that Ukraine once wanted to get from the Americans and almost got, but then were withheld last autumn.They're just not there.

in the numbers that had taken place.So what's the play here?I think what Zelensky does, and this was repeated in his meeting with the French, German, and UK leaders in London yesterday, is emphasize that air defense is a priority, that even if we cannot actually get the Americans to provide these systems, we would like to get the Trump administration to say that this would be a good thing to do.They would like to get that signal from the Americans.And in the meanwhile, in terms of practical steps, they've got to look for air defense from elsewhere.They've got to look to develop their own systems, but also especially get assistance from Europe for that.

So that's part of the play here.But then the broader play, which goes beyond the air defense itself, which even goes beyond Ukraine's long -range strike capability, is to clear the space for Ukraine in terms of putting pressure on Russia.To go back to the topic at the very start, which is, we don't want the Trump administration standing in the way of Ukraine's long -range strikes.Remember that behind the scenes, the Americans provide intelligence sharing.I'm talking about the adults in the room.They provide intelligence sharing to Ukraine.

Remember that the U .S.military, the adults in the room, do confer with Ukraine on issues like that.You want that to be maintained, even if the public support for long -range strikes is coming from other countries like the Europeans.Similarly on air defenses, you want American expertise, access to American expertise in terms of organizing air defenses, even if you can't get the headline equipment like the Patriots.

Let's move on to a big thing that happened last week, which is, of course, Zelensky publicly offering to meet with Vladimir Putin in person and discuss the ceasefire.Now, Putin refused.So does that help Ukraine with the diplomatic argument that it is Russia, not Kyiv, that is standing in the way of peace?

You knew that when you asked that question.Of course, that's what Zelensky was...It never hurts to get the analysts to go, oh, yeah, OK.You know, because, again, it goes to what we just referred to.And that is, is that when you look at this, there's a wider political campaign here on which is given that the Kremlin, at least at this point, is unlikely to agree to a ceasefire based on the current front lines.Don't let the Kremlin get the initiative.

Don't let them get the initiative in demanding more Ukrainian territory.And don't let them get the initiative in playing like, oh, we're the guys who are offended here.We're the guys who are suffering from this.Zelensky puts it on the table.I'll meet you in a neutral country.I have no problems to that, right?

You know, he won't meet Putin in Moscow, which is what the Kremlin has said for pretty obvious reasons.Not exactly the safest place for Zelensky to pitch up, but he'll meet in a neutral country.And then Putin is, as remember, he's about to address the St. Petersburg Forum.He's got one of two choices.He either has to accept the talks face -to -face with Zelensky, which is a major climb -down, because now he's treating Zelensky as an equal.And for 51 and a half months, all through this full -scale invasion, they've belittled Zelensky.

He's a man who's not legitimate.His government is not legitimate.They should not even be in power.This is why we have the right to go in and overrun their country.Putin either has to climb down off that, or he has to double down on rejecting the talks.He chose the latter.

He totally said he said this approach was rude So the guy the guy who has been waging a war to wipe out ukraine has carried out mass killings of tens of thousands of civilians He's he's now he's offended something is rude now to vlad And then he says oh and by the way, we're going to keep the special military operation going because we're going to claim the rest of the dun bus Okay, fine He's maintained what he wants to do.He signaled he's not going to accept the ceasefire.But now it's not like the Trump folks can come in and support him as being a peacemaker.Trump's line that Putin wants to make peace is rendered useless.

Exactly.It's being debunked.But do you think that this move from Zelensky publicly calling him to meet, do you think that made Zelensky look a lot tougher than Putin and made by Putin refusing to meet him in a neutral country, it looks as if he was running scared?

In combination with the strikes on St. Petersburg, it did that.But it did another thing, Maddie, which is equally important.Look, the Americans have left the building, or at least the Trump folks have left the building for the time being.Marco Rubio said it a couple of weeks ago.He said, we're not going to try to convene another set of talks between Ukraine and Russia.We're not going to do that until we see progress.

" And it's like, okay, bye, Marco.Go prepare to run for president in 2028, which we all know is what you're going to do.And then that meant, okay, well, if the Americans aren't going to try to get an impetus for the talks for a ceasefire, who's going to do it?And this became an interesting story, and I'm not sure which came first, so I'll just lay out both sides of this.I think the Kremlin may have miscalculated here.I think in their effort to several weeks ago to look like the good people here.

They said, oh, okay, we will talk to Europe about, you know, making sure that Ukraine finally accepts our demands.And we'll have an envoy.We'll have an envoy, a European envoy.And they were suggesting the former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.Well, there's an issue here.And that is Gerhard Schroeder has made an awful lot of money, allegedly, from his interest in Russian companies.

which of course are connected with the Kremlin.That's happened for years.So not exactly a neutral envoy.When the Kremlin did that, I think they opened up the door to what Europe was already considering.And that is, if the Americans have checked out, Europe needs to get back to the negotiating table.And so what the Europeans were discussing was, for the first time since 2022, they send someone to go talk to Putin.

So it's no longer real estate developer Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump's son -in -law Jared Kushner.It's an actual person with ability that goes.And there have beenseveral names that have mentioned the European Union foreign policy head, Kallio Kallis, the Finnish President Alexander Stubbe, or his predecessor, the former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, you know, all of whom have had their names put out there.That idea is picking up traction.that Europe should go ahead and make the play to say, we're willing, not Zelensky seeing Putin in Moscow, security issues, we're willing to come see you in Moscow to arrange these talks to get a ceasefire.

Because what it does is, for years, the Russians tried to keep the Europeans away from negotiations.You might remember in 2025, they were trying to negotiate with the US over the heads of the Europeans.Now, Europe has got themselves at the table, in part out of necessity, because the Americans aren't going to do it, and in part because there might be an opportunity here, given Ukraine itself is in a stronger position than it was six months ago.

Final question, Scott.Russia has begun recruiting more aggressively from universities and technical colleges, offering students financial incentives and a military career opportunities as it looks to replenish these massive battlefield losses.So this comes just two weeks after Putin signed a decree allowing new recruits who sign up to fight in Ukraine up to 10 million rubles, which is around $140 ,000 of debt wiped out.And it also extends to their spouses.So, while Russia insists there isn't a manpower problem, I mean, these were creative recruitment attempts would really beg to differ.Is he desperate?

I wouldn't quite say desperation at this point, but I think it indicates that Russia faces a serious challenge in terms of its ground assaults.Let's sayfirst of all, we need to be clear, Ukraine has a serious manpower issue as well.They've got far fewer people who can fight than the Russians do.This has always been, I think, sort of the amazing part of the story that Ukraine could hold out for more than four years, given how much larger Russia is.And Ukraine still faces that challenge.

But we get the other side of the story.Russia's taken, and this is not just Ukraine, estimates.This is also UK intelligence, which I think is on the mark here.It's also US intelligence.Russia's taken almost 1 .4 million casualties.Now that is killed, wounded, or unable, basically removed from the battlefield for other reasons.

You know, well, Russia has relied on sort of these human wave assaults at times to try to grab territory, for example, in the east, in Luhansk and Donetsk regions.The context of what you've just told us is that those gradual Russian advances have stopped.They were already very slow in 2025.It's not like they were overrunning all of the East, but then they were halved in the first three months of this year.And then in April and May, Russia did not advance on the battlefield at all.And indeed in May, Ukraine actually gained territory for the first time since 2023.

So what you've got is Putin trying to mobilize people not to support an invasion which is winning, but trying to re -energize it, trying to revive it, and he's doing so with an economy which is no longer that overheated economy where their GDP is growing four to five percent.Russia's GDP contracted the first three months of this year.There are serious issues with manufacturing, serious issues with agriculture, serious issues with the oil revenues.I think the broader point here, however,is Russia, I think, is fighting the last war.You know, one of the famous maxims is, you know, the mistake is always fighting the last war.

Simply throwing more personnel onto the battlefield doesn't address the fact that this has become, you know, a generalization, but it's become the first 21st century drone war.You know, it's been the drones on the battlefield that have made the difference.You could put more personnel if you can try to mobilize them.But if Ukraine has an advantage in battlefield drones, which is what it's been working for, and which it has arguably achieved, you will still not necessarily get those breakthroughs that you're looking for.So take everything we've talked about in this episode together, and what you have is that an invasion, where is your next play?Mobilize more men?

You still face the challenges of drone warfare.You still face the fact that Ukraine has European support.to be quite well organized.Where's your next play politically?Try to get the Americans on your side?Well, the Americans have checked out of the building and the Europeans may be stepping in to try to bolster Ukraine politically as well as with economic support.

Your next play psychologically, we're winning.Why stand in our way?Well, Ukraine sort of shot that fox with St. Petersburg a few days ago.

Professor Scott Lucas, thank you so much for joining the show today.

Thank you, Maddie.Look forward to seeing you soon.