Putin’s war finally reaches Moscow: What changes now?

So there is some evidence that Putin's war is becoming less popular in Russia.What do you make of that, and does it matter?

The most important thing to note is that Putin's war has finally reached Moscow.That means that Muscovites have had their cell phone service cut off.They've had trouble using ATMs.They have trouble functioning normally in the city.And also they've been subject for the first time to real drone campaigns, attacks on factories that have caused pretty spectacular explosions around the city.And they finally see the war, and they're beginning to understand that it's not, that they're not winning.

And not only are they not winning, but the war is coming closer.That doesn't mean that Putin is leaving tomorrow or that the war is ending tomorrow, but it means there's been a pretty strong shift in the mood of the business elite, the political elite, and other people who do still have influence on Putin's thinking.

And how does that matter?

It matters because one way or another, this system will eventually change, and those are the people who will be somehow involved in the change.You know, one of the strange things about Putin's Russia is that not only do we not know who will follow Putin, we don't know how that person will be chosen.Politburo, there's no political party that will choose the next leader.And so we have to assume that the leader will somehow emerge from elite groups, whether in the security forces or in the business world.

We've seen various Russian formerly pro -war bloggers kind of turn against Putin.What do you make of that?Is this significant?

It's hard to tell what those pro -war bloggers are doing.Some of them may be testing the water to see which narratives affect people.It's hard to know whether they're really independent or not.But of course, I guess it's significant that they would, even just to see what the reaction would be, that they would say no.things about the war or the way the war is being conducted.And that means, as I said, either that they're being steered by someone who wants to know these things or that they have some kind of independent protection and that there are people, again, inside the security forces and inside the propaganda world who think a little bit differently.

Do you agree that the Russian military campaign has kind of stalled?

Certainly the front line has stalled.The way the front line looks now is there's a kind of 20 -mile zone on either side, which is completely frozen.So it's completely transparent.Drones can see everything.Anybody who comes into it, whether it's a person or a tank or any other kind of equipment, is immediately identified by a drone and very likely to be hit.And that means it's difficult, if not impossible, to move forward, and certainly to move forward in any kind of significant numbers.

And so that does mean that the front line is pretty frozen.Of course, the war continues in other ways.The Russians are still hitting Ukrainian cities, hitting civilians, hitting civilian infrastructure.And the Ukrainians are hitting Russian, mostly oil and gas infrastructure.So the war is is continuing in a different way, but not exactly on territory right now.

What effect do you think those, particularly on the oil, which makes spectacular kind of television pictures and whatnot, what effect does that have?

Well, so we don't know how much those spectacular pictures really circulate inside Russia.But even to the extent that they do, they're pretty clear proof also that Russians are not safe, that they haven't defeated Ukraine, that the war is still going, that they're paying a high price for it.So every time one of those pictures appears in somebody's internet group chat, I think it has significance.

I'm struck by the number of Russians used to say that the Ukrainian Nazis were the enemy.Now, more and more, it's Europe is the real enemy.

They have been talking about Europe from the beginning, too.I mean, they may be preparing some kind of extended campaign against Europe.And there's already a European sabotage.There are political influence campaigns.There are attempts to buy and corrupt European politicians.I mean, that's all still going on.

How is Europe doing at replacing the United States as the main backer of Ukraine?

So two years ago, Europeans were saying, we can't do it.It's impossible.We're not going to be able to help Ukraine.And now it turns out they can.Europe is now providing, I mean, I don't know the exact number, 90%, 95 % of the financial and military support for Ukraine.They're providing most of the support for the Ukrainian drone industry, the weapons industry, which is now cutting edge and ahead of most of the world.

The United States is doing less and less.I mean, there has even been some question about whether some American weapons that were paid for by Europeans, whether those will even be delivered.So the U .S.is really disappearing fast from the war, and the U .S.

is therefore discovering it has few cards.The U .S.is not able to end the war because the U .S.

has no levers anymore in the conflict.You know, Ukrainians, you often hear from Ukrainians that the support from Europe and the United States is half -hearted.You know, no Tomahawk missiles from the U .S., no Taurus missiles from Germany.

How do you view that?I mean, I think the war would have been over a long time ago if we'd helped Ukraine faster and given them the ability especially to do these long -range strikes earlier.I mean, I don't think that's even really disputed anymore.you know, the reasoning now, some of it is still fear of provoking the Russians, some of it is..are now beginning to hoard missiles and hoard ammunition because they're afraid of a wider conflict.I think it's very short -sighted.

If we can end the war, why not end it?

In particular, Patriot missiles seem to be an air defense issue.

The Patriots are air defense systems, and those have been in shortage throughout the whole conflict, and they're in shortage because they're hard and expensive to make, because other countries need them, and also the United States has just used, I don't know the number, but very many of them in the Gulf.So the United States made a choice.It chose to begin and to fight a war in the Gulf, which it hasn't completed, and instead of using those weapons in Ukraine.And everybody can see that that choice has happened.

How can Ukraine deal with the lack of Patriot missiles, the lack of air defense?Can that be countered?

The Ukrainians are beginning to build their own air defense.Europeans are belatedly also beginning to build air defense.So it's going to have to be a technological project for the whole continent.And the Europeans and the Ukrainians, I should say, are getting better at shooting down drones.And they can now hit most of them.They have these drone interceptors that they've invented.

The missiles are still harder.So no, we need a continental -wide effort if the U .S.is not able to do it anymore.

Do you believe we'll see European peacekeepers in Ukraine if a ceasefire happens?

I mean, there can really only be peacekeepers if there's a real peace.I mean, I actually think we might be technologically moving beyond peacekeepers because If drones can police a border, you know, if there's beginning to be a kind of de facto border between Russia and Ukraine, then we might not need the kinds of peacekeeping operations we've been doing.in the past, but this is just my conjecture.

You know, I remember interviewing John Bolton at the beginning of the war, and he says, had only we put some American troops there, if they looked across the border with their binoculars and saw an American flag, they never would have crossed that border.

Maybe, maybe he's right.I mean, certainly it would have, you know, the reason why Putin hasn't invaded any NATO countries until now is both because of European capabilities, but also because of the implied presence of the United States.

When the president of the United States says NATO is clearly a paper tiger and Putin understands that, what's the effect of that?

He's undermining NATO's ability to deter Russia.I assume he knows he's doing that.Maybe he doesn't.But he's certainly undermining the psychological effect of the alliance, because this is both a real alliance in the sense that there are joint operations and there are weapons procurement arrangements and so on, and there are soldiers who do exercises together.But it's also a promise that we will fight for one another.And the president seems determined to undermine the impact of that promise.

You know, we see some Republicans standing up to Trump.What are the chances that brings a change in U .S.

policy towards Ukraine?We have very close numbers in the House and the Senate.They're getting closer all the time as some Republicans are beginning to switch sides on some issues, including this one.And so maybe the Republican Party in Congress can influence the president's policy on Ukraine.But, you know, this is a very personal issue.This policy is very personal to him.

It's not really what the U .S.military wants or the U .S.security establishment, but it's personal to him.It's because of his admiration for, fondness for,

whatever the word is, his relationship with Putin, maybe his expectation that he'll be able to do business deals with Putin.All of those things are, those seem to affect him more than what people in Congress say.

From your point of view, is Putin getting weaker or stronger?

He's clearly not winning the war.More people understand that he's not winning the war.But who knows?That may make him more aggressive.Maybe he has a greater desire to show how powerful he is.We don't know.