Quincy Institute Founder Predicts What Will Happen With The Strait Of Hormuz

As we all know, it's kind of difficult to know exactly where this administration is headed when it comes to this war against Iran, which is blown up into a full scale regional war. Trump speaks from both sides of his mouth. He goes from saying that he's engaged in peace negotiations with Iran that don't actually exist, to making severe threats against civilian infrastructure in Iran, to claiming that maybe he's going to pull out and leave the Strait of Hormuz for the Europeans to figure out. So luckily joining us to make some sense of what's happening in this US-Israeli

war against Iran is Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Trita, thank you Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Trita, thank you so much for joining us.

Thanks so much for having me, I really appreciate it.

So I've really been enjoying the interviews you've been doing. You're really everywhere these days and I'm grateful for that because it's good to have some clarity and some real analysis on what's happening. And so let's start with the Strait of Hormuz and what Trump recently said. Trump has amassed some military assets and has increased the number of troops in the Middle East, kind of giving us a hint that he might be considering some sort of military operation, maybe boots on the ground, maybe an attempt to take over Karg Island.

But then today, he said something along the lines of, maybe we just leave it alone, leave the Strait of Hormuz for the Europeans to figure out, they didn't help us with this war. So why should I help them with the Strait of Hormuz? The US is fine, we're oil independent, we're energy independent, which we all know that oil and gas is traded on the global market. What do you think is actually happening here?

Well, on that specific front, I think Trump has been very angry today. Because the Italians are not allowing him to use a base in Sicily, unless the Italian parliament explicitly votes in favor of that. The French have apparently stopped some overflights of American military planes over French air territory. And the Spanish had already stopped

the use of Spanish bases for this war. So he's definitely feeling that the Europeans are not going to join in on this debacle. They were never asked about this

word, have never consulted. Macron in particular was in very

intense discussions with the Americans, but was never told about this word, have never consulted. Macron in particular was in very

intense discussions with the Americans, but was never told that this was about to happen. And now it's clear to anyone who doesn't watch Fox News that this

war is going terribly badly. So why would they now join in and share the blame for this debacle? So given that I think Trump was very angry today and one way of hitting back to

the Europeans at the Europeans was essentially to say, well, look, you need the straighter for most much more than the United States does because at the end of the day, the US is not importing

any oil from the Persian Gulf,

the Europeans are the Asian

markets are.

Now if it remains closed, of course it does affect the entire global economy and it will backfire on the US as well. But I think this was part of a way of him saying, look, I may just strike a deal and I'm going to leave you guys to

negotiate your own transit fees with the Iranians because they will remain in control of the straits. Whether he will really do it that way or not is a different story. But I think what we're seeing here is the president who went in had been kind of led to believe by

the Israelis that this was gonna be very easy, thought that this was gonna be over in four days. And ever since those four days, he's essentially been improvising this war because he doesn't have a plan. And in that context, you will see him get very angry and lash out on numerous occasions he already has and he will continue to do so. But bottom line is,

this war is not going well. The more Trump tries to escalate his way out of this war, the worse it will get. He needs to quickly find a negotiated settlement in order

to say whatever he can say of his presidency at this point. But that necessitates real negotiations with some real realistic demands rather than what we've seen come from

the administration so far.

Is it even possible to persuade the Iranians at this point to engage in peace negotiations? You hear Trump claiming that they are, obviously that's not actually happening.

The Iranians for good reason do not trust the United States. I mean, on two different occasions, they were engaged in negotiations in good faith and the United States attacked in the middle of those

negotiations. So I just watched an interview with the foreign minister Abbas Araqchi today on Al Jazeera and he said, our trust for the United States is at a zero.

We don't trust them.

So I mean, is it even possible, would they be open to negotiations with the US?

It is possible to get to a deal, it will probably not be through direct negotiations. And the Iranians ultimately will also see a need to negotiate, even though they have time more on

their side and they can squeeze the US a bit. But bottom line is if they keep on going at this, they're going to turn much of the neighborhood against them in a manner that is

not going to be helpful to them. Moreover, if they have leverage now and if they have managed to create certain new realities on the ground, it would lie in their interest to negotiate and

try to cement those new benefits certain new realities on the ground. It would lie in their interest to negotiate and try to cement those new benefits into a new stable status quo. Rather than thinking that, continuing the war necessarily will improve their situation,

it can dramatically change. So I think they do have an interest and I think frankly they have shown a degree of interest. But there's no basis of negotiations if the US

thinks that it can dictate the terms of Iran's surrender, which is essentially the language coming out of the Trump administration at this point. Moreover, even when the administration may get serious, if their initial demand is an immediate ceasefire, but then other concessions from the US will come later on. Clearly the Iranians are not going to buy that precisely because of the trust issue that you mentioned.

Because once there's a ceasefire, the Iranians believe that they will lose much of their leverage. So they want to make sure that things are given up front if they're supposed to be giving

anything up front. And that's a more complex negotiation than the kind of things that Trump has been used to in which he's just dictating terms. And so far we have not seen Trump show much patience for that type of negotiations.

You're definitely right about the lack of patience. And what I'm also kind of curious about is, this war has been devastating for Iran, especially its civilian infrastructure,

the horrific bombing of that elementary school in Manab, there's no question. But when you think about the asymmetrical nature of this war, you have the United States with its military capability that's, I think, far superior than Iran's. However, Iran does hold some cards here and it's the economic element of this war with their control of the Strait of Hormuz.

And the sanctions that the US had implemented against Iran was absolutely crushing Iran's economy. That's what led to the protests that happened recently. People were frustrated about

the economic conditions. But now that Iran has essentially used their control of the Strait of Hormuz for leverage, They're actually bringing in more money because people are paying tolls or countries are paying tolls

in order to transport resources through the Strait. Am I correct in saying that? And is that-

You are correct.

Yeah, this is one of the paradoxes of the war. The Iranians are now collecting tolls. However, we don't have data yet on exactly how much

that is. And I don't believe that it is very significant since the traffic is still very low. However, the Iranians were selling about a little bit less than 1.1 million barrels of oil a day prior to the war. Now they're up at around 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, meaning that they've only almost increased their exports 50%.

Look, I get it, staying on top of the news these days feels like a trap. Every outlet has an angle, every headline is designed to get a reaction.

And if you're only seeing the story from one perspective, you're probably missing most of what actually matters. To really understand what's going on, you need to see how the narrative is being shaped. That's exactly why I use Ground News.

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Moreover, before the war, they were selling the oil at $65 with an $18 discount because of the sanctions. As of one week ago, I haven't checked lately, as of one week ago, they were selling the oil at $110 with a $2 to $4 discount. Meaning the actual price they were selling had gone from 47 to about $108. Almost a tripling of the price. So they're actually getting much more money coming in.

So the war itself paradoxically has translated into a de facto sanctions relief for the Iranians. Now that does not mean that they're doing well in general because they're taking huge hits. The war is increasingly looking like an Israeli war. I mean, we're seeing the United

States allowing this Israelization of the war, meaning targeting of universities, targeting of all kinds of civilian targets that the Israelis did on a daily basis in Lebanon in Gaza.

I mean, we can say a lot about the US's conduct of the war in Iraq, for instance, and I was a critic of it, and I'm sure you were as well, of course. But the US didn't deliberately

target universities. We're only four weeks into the war and the Israelis are already starting to do so. And beyond that, they're actually

announcing it themselves. It's not as if they, in the beginning of the Gaza war, they were hitting hospitals and blaming Hamas for it. Now they're killing journalists.

They don't even go through the charade of pretending to investigate it. They're announcing it themselves that we killed this journalist because that journalist was on our target list.

And they've gotten to that stage in Iran as well in which they're hitting universities and announcing it proudly themselves. And again, I have to say this is again an indication of how,

first of all, the war was sold to Trump by the Israelis. Now we saw that the conduct of the war has become more similar to Israeli warfare. And of course,

the objectives of the war increasingly has become that. With Trump just minutes ago in the White House saying that, they're going to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age.

They're going to be setting them back several decades. And in a couple of years, perhaps another president will pick it up and bomb them again. That's the mowing of the law and strategy that the Israelis have been using for decades against the Palestinians and other Arab neighbors of Israel.

Again, this did not used to be the American approach with the American goals. In fact, one of the reasons why a lot of American presidents or actually all of them, except Trump, rejected Israel's pressure for war is because they predicted that they would end up in a scenario in which they would have to go to war with Iran every couple of years and that was simply unacceptable. Now, it seems like Trump has embraced that objective because so

much of the war, the Israelis are in the driving

seat.

What's interesting about how the war is being carried out, and you're absolutely correct in mentioning the hospitals, the healthcare workers, the universities that are being targeted

by the United States, which is incredibly shameful and doesn't make me feel good as an American, I'll just say that. But when I think about what the US is even able to achieve militarily, I can't help but think about the fact that the Houthis in Yemen weren't defeated by the United States, our military might did not defeat the Houthis who are funded and supported by the IRCG.

So what is the likelihood that the US through military activity can carry out what Israel effectively wants, which is either a failed state kind of like Syria, or regime change where you have a

puppet government installed that shows deference to Israel. regime change where you have like a puppet government installed that shows deference to Israel.

So, early on in the war, these were objectives that were spoken about as if they were very high possibilities. I think at this stage it's very clear, it's not going to be regime

change, we've not seen mass protest. In fact, people in Iran are out on the streets on a daily basis in the evenings. And it's mainly the support base of the regime, of course, that is out. But they're really galvanized by this war.

And you've seen clear sentiments amongst the population turning dramatically against the United States, turning very nationalistic. Because again, the manner in which this war is being conducted, the civilian toll, etc, etc. So you do have that type of a scenario in which early on they thought that this was a possibility at this point, Trump has essentially thrown in the towel and saying, you know what, we already achieved regime change because the top leadership is now different.

Yes, that's a change within the regime. That's not regime change because the top leadership is now different. Yes, that's a change within the regime. That's not regime change. But if that's the narrative Trump has to construct, the narrative of success and victory he has to construct.

In order to take an exit ramp, by all means, go ahead. It's totally fine. Declare yourself a victor, but just end this war before it kills more innocent people, before it

further sets back not just Iran's infrastructure, but the Iranian people struggle for democracy, which already has been set back by this, but also the risk of further destabilization in the region.

And of course, the massive damage the US itself is taking at this

war. I personally don't see that Trump can exit this war unilaterally. You see Israel consistently escalating the situation. They do not want this war to end and they've dedicated hundreds of billions of dollars to this war that they've been wanting, Netanyahu's been wanting for many, many decades. But at the same time, there's a story that came out today,

the Associated Press reported. I don't know what to make of it, Trita, because whenever it comes to news items that rely heavily on anonymous sources, you don't know who these sources are. You don't know what kind of narrative they're trying to drive. But according to the Associated Press, some of our Gulf allies, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are urging Trump behind the scenes to keep the war going until Iran is defeated. I'm going to read two quick excerpts

from the piece where they say that some of the regional allies are making the case to the White House that the moment offers a historic opportunity to cripple Tehran's clerical rule once and for all.

Officials from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain have conveyed in private conversations that they do not want the military operation to end until there are significant changes in the Iranian leadership, or there's a dramatic shift in Iranian behavior. Qatar and Oman apparently are favoring a more diplomatic approach.

But I don't know how much of this to believe. There were also reports leading up to the attack on Iran indicating that the Saudis were trying to encourage Jared Kushner to push for

this war. Now I know the Saudis have a special relationship with Israel. I know that's the same with the UAE. What do you make of that report

though? Do you think our Gulf allies are in Trump's ear about continuing this war?

Look, I think from the UAE side, that is probably quite accurate. You have clear statements coming from both UAE officials as well as prominent academics that are very close to the government that sound eerily similar to some of these statements. On the Saudi side, you're getting these flat out denials from people inside the government as well as people who understand Saudi Arabia much better than I do. But I do think that there may be a scenario in which the Saudi

foreign minister actually absolutely pushed back against this war. Whereas MBS actually pursued his own foreign policy directly with Trump. At least that appears to be what Trump has been telling people. And that would not in any way shape or form surprise me in the sense that MBS is kind of like a Trumpian figure that does his own thing. And can at times pursue a different line than what his foreign ministry have said. When it came to a lot of things on Gaza, we all had to pay attention.

Was the statement from Saudi Arabia condemning this or that coming from the foreign ministry? Or was it coming in from MBS or his office? It was a huge difference between the two. So again, I think it's a bit of a mystery. I don't think anyone has any clear answers to this. But what I think is also interesting is that if it is the case that these countries want

the US to continue, it doesn't appear to have much of an impact on Trump at least so far. Because I do think he's looking for an exit. It's just that he doesn't understand or know exactly how to find that exit, how to take that exit, how to take that exit. Because it will require compromises from both sides, including American concessions.

And that's a very significant psychological distance for Trump to travel, having thought that he would have a glorious victory with Iranian capitulation within four days to now actually

having to give concessions in order

for the war to end.

Yeah, it seems like Trump was really genuinely convinced that Iran was far more weak than it really was. And I mean, that was a grave mistake. Trita, thank you so much for taking it really was. And I mean, that was a grave mistake. Trita, thank you so much for taking

the time to speak with me. Thank you. Have a good one.