Robert Pape REACTS: Trump GROUND TROOPS In Iran Threat

President Trump asked about ground troops in Iran is, well, you go ahead and listen.This is B1.

You posted today on True Social comments that you made back in 1988 about Karg Island.And at the time you said, one bullet shot at one of our men.or ships, and I'd do a number on Carg Island, I'd go in and take it.Do you still intend to take Carg Island?

So I can't say that to you because if I did, it would be foolish, right?But it would be nice to make a little headlines, but it would be foolish.But I'll tell you about Carg Island.So we've already Are you ruling out a ground campaign in a limited capacity?I don't want to say that either, but I would say no if I thought it was appropriate.Sometimes you need a ground campaign, but we have other people that will do the ground campaign for us.

But we already hit Cargill Island, as you know, twice, even three times.I said hit everything but the oil.Just leave that little area from 25 yards out.Leave that little area.Don't touch the oil.because I don't want that in terms of the world economy.

It's a, you know, it's a chunk of the world economy.So we haven't hit that.At some point we could, but I think it's unlikely.As far as taking it is concerned, if we degrade them far enough and deep enough back.

All right, so we had hoped that we had somehow escaped the escalation trap into the warm embrace of the memorandum of understanding reached between the United States and Iran.Unfortunately, it seems like that trap is cinched just as tightly around our ankles.I'm going to put up B2 here, Professor Robert Pape's piece yesterday over his substack, the escalation trap.The escalation trap has entered a new phase.Joining us to discuss kind of what that new phase is, is University of Chicago professor Robert Pape.Professor, thanks for being here.

Thank you very much for having me.

Yeah, you got it.So, hoping that we had moved on.not not quite what what was it in in your assessment that kind of pulled us back in Yes, well, thank you for talking about this.

This is really quite a tragic moment.We're entering some of the most dangerous weeks of this war, quite likely, and people are thinking, well, this is just a return to, say, March or early April.It could be much worse than that.I know we haven't gotten there yet, but where we are at is very predictable.So as you'll recall, there have been three core stages of the escalation trap.Stage one is where you have regime change bombing that kills leaders but leaves America weaker because you get a stage two, which is although we kill the leaders and hit targets, Iran lashes back in a horizontal escalation campaign and takes more moves and now controls 20 % of the world's world's energy, and we will take every effort.

We tried punishment campaign for six weeks, air power, that failed.We tried two -month blockade, that failed.And we are still where we are with stage three, which is the ground power power dilemma.So if you go to February 25th on the escalation trap, three days before the bomb, and you'll see all these stages laid out before the war, and we would get to the ground power dilemma, and that's where we are today.Now, what is that dilemma?Either we physically take Hormuz back, and you're seeing President Trump repositioning forces to do that, and we can talk about the details, including the ground operations, or we don't, and you get what I call stage four, which is Iran becomes the fourth center of world power over the next year or so.

It continues to control Hormuz and reap all the economic benefits from that.It spreads it.fear of influence here to basically go from Lebanon to the Red Sea to the Gulf.And you see they're basically beginning to do that.And then in about 18 months, they develop nuclear weapons.So this is the actual trajectory of what it means to simply not take Hormuz back, to walk away.

And people keep thinking there's some third option.There's not a third option.possible third option.Now, there's something very specific, I think, just to drill into what happened in the last few weeks that I think can help make some sense here for your listeners, because I understand the whipsaw here, because I face it every day with my sub stack.You know, it's now almost 70 ,000.We got a lot of people emailing me and telling me all kinds of things.

So I definitely feel this.But what I just want to sort of explain here is, well, what happened What happened with the MOU?And you know, you've had me on.I'm not surprised this thing fell apart.But what exactly happened here with President Trump?Why didn't he just keep going forward?

Well, there's really two reasons here that's very important to understand.Reason number one is that the reason trump said he wanted to do the mou Was to avoid the oil inventories running down you recall He said we're going to run out of oil in four weeks, which means he would become herbert hoover And then everybody said well, okay, so that means he can't avoid that Well, no, the problem is if you look at the oil inventory curves, which i'm sure president trump is getting Um, we're still running down.We're basically still on the Titanic heading to the iceberg.We haven't diverted from the iceberg.We're going to hit that iceberg somewhere around the middle of August.We don't know the exact days here.

That's what all these oil exportersare debating.Is it August 7th, August 15th, September 1?But this is not a problem.It's we're going to hit this iceberg.And so, President Trump, the MOU failed from his perspective.

J .D.Vance said, the reason Trump told us to do this was to fill the oil coffers.This did not work.He's still at risk of becoming Herbert Hoover.So this is issue number one.

He's desperate.He's not using these options because they're going to win in a certainty.He's desperate because he sees certain becoming Herbert Hoover.And he's being very desperate, trying anything to avoid it.There's a second reason, which is the MAGA opinion polls.The MAGA opinion polls are very strongly in favor of regime change in Iran, and President Trump needs MAGA to turn out.

He doesn't need Democrats to turn out.They're not going to vote for him.He doesn't need even the independents.What he needs is MAGA in these midterms to turn out.That's what midterms are always about.It's the base.

Well, he's also feeding a big part of his base.There's only a small part of his base.It's a Tucker Carlson part of his base.So people, I think, have just been misreading the midterm incentives here for Trump.And what you see is he is the ship on the deck.of the captain of the Titanic, he's heading us here, and it's because he's desperate to find a way to avoid hitting the iceberg, even if that means this super highly risky set of options.

Which, by the way, I am not in favor of.I want to be very, very clear.I am not supporting this idea.I believe all the bad things that everybody is saying.My job is to put my policy, my preferencehat aside and say, setting that aside, where are we actually heading?

That's why the escalation trap has been on the money month after month after month after month after month.We're in five months now of this being on the money.and your listeners will know, you guys push back on me all the time.I do not want this to be the case.I am just following 20 years of modeling where this heads and understanding the real dilemmas that are at work, even as we are heading to a really potentially costly time.future here.

The part I'm trying to figure out is why Trump forgot about the physical limitations that he was so clear about at the beginning of the MOU.When he was explaining to people publicly why he agreed to the terms of the truce, as you said, he said multiple times, if I didn't, it was going to be bedlam, I think was the word he used.And multiple times in this long interview that a long press conference he held, he talked about Herbert Hoover.He has basically two South stars, I guess you would call them, and that's Jimmy Carter and that's Herbert Hoover.To him, Carter involves Iran too.He believes that the Iranian hostage rescue attempt that went South is what really cratered his...

That combined, interestingly, with the oil embargo that led to gas lines and high gas prices.that that cratered his presidency.And then Herbert Hoover, of course, nobody needs to be reminded what happened to Herbert Hoover.So that's his big concern.And he was saying that because inventories are low, the strategic petroleum reserve is low, like he needed to get, he needed to reach a deal or else he was going to become Herbert Hoover.But nothing has changed.

Like, oh, we've added.

That's the problem here.Nothing has changed.The oil inventories with the MOU are still going down, which means the MOU is Trump's roadmap to becoming Herbert Hoover.Right.That's what he sees.Now, you can disagree with him, but see, this is what the media is not quite getting.

Your question is a very understandable one.And I understand why you're asking.But it's hard to listen to what I'm saying because it's so we don't want this to happen.But here's the problem.The problem from Trump's perspective is the MOU was supposed to be his off ramp to avoid becoming Herbert Hoover.But the MOU has turned out.

to still run the oil inventories to ground.If you look at the ships passing the Strait of Hormuz, they're still virtually, you know, they're almost zero.They're not quite zero.We got a little bit of oil out, but it's because Iran is shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.It's not just Trump shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.Iran decided to be very aggressive in enforcing the MOU and shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

It was Iran who initiated the shutting down of the Strait of Hormuz, not President Trump.And so why is that?It's because Iran wants revenge.Iran has moved from survival to ambition to revenge.And that's what you see with those tens of millions pouring out.And these are all connected.

These are not separate issues.Iran is shutting down the Strait of Hormuz here because Trump won't honor the MOU.And Trump can't honor the MOU without the big loss on his record.So the bottom line is that what's happening is the MOU has become simply a roadmap to Trump hitting the iceberg anyway.And what he's trying to do now is use military force to see if he can minimize how long the oil, the damages to the world's economy.I don't think he's going to succeed.

I think it's the risks are too great.But this is what, why he's He's doing this and I think if we don't take this seriously, we can't really try to convince him to do something else.So if you really just if we really just keep dismissing why he's doing and even though he's telling us so directly.then you're never going to persuade the decision makers.And I know because I've advised every West Wing, including the first Trump White House from 2001 to 24, Chiefs of Staff of the Air Force.You're not going to convince them by telling them they're stupid, their ideas are bad.

You've got to understand where they're coming from.And if you don't, then the only thing you can do is wait to vote them out of office in 2028.But by 2028, look at all the damage that's going to happen.So this is really the problem that we face.We're having a hard time seeing it from Trump's perspective, because the oil inventories, if you just show the chart, they're still going down.That's what he said the problem was, and the MOU didn't fix the problem.

Well, so the pushback I would give on that would be, and we can put this chart up in post, the MOU is signed June 17th, and I think that The Titanic and the iceberg analogy is actually useful.If Trump thought that he was driving like an F1 car and he and that Hormuz traffic was going to do some hairpin turn and go from zero to pre -MOU, then whether or not those people that you're advising want to be called idiots or not, that's his business.thing to think.It's going to take some time to get it back up, and you do actually see the traffic coming through the Strait of Hormuz significantly expanding and elevating.You're seeing more and more ships go through.Now, about a week ago, when the shooting really kicked back off, then you see it collapsing again.

So for Trump, it's like, okay, yeah, you didn't immediately refill all your inventories and strategic petroleum reserve stockpile, but the ships were coming through.So how is stopping it gonna helping him?

That's right.So there was another choice that Trump could have made and apparently he signed some of the orders to do this, which is when he signed the MOU, he could have withdrawn all 50 ,000 U .S.troops from the region.He could have withdrawn all 22 carriers and 20 destroyers and cruisers from the region.And Iran would have been probably quite happy with that and not shot at ships.

So that was the real choice that he had in front of him.Or they could have just gone through, they could have just coordinated.

The problem was they tried to go through the Omani side with their transponders.

Well, that's what I'm trying to say, sir, is that the real fork in the road happened when he signed the MOU.When he signed the MOU, he had a choice.Is he going to let Iran become the fourth center of world power, fully control the Strait of Hormuz for real, Or not right and what it would mean to allow the uh, iran to fully do the mou because remember the mou is all concessions to iran What it would mean is withdraw 50 000 combat forces from the region all our bases in bahrain, etc That's what iran wants and also all of the 20 trips ships and notice that was his real choice and apparently hesigned an order to start to do some of that.But then he decided he couldn't accept that was too big of a loss because then his MAGA base would not turn out in the midterms.And that's the problem.

There is no third way.There is no compromise where we share the Strait of Hormuz.People keep thinking.This is a business deal, and we're just going to meet in the middle, triangulate in the middle.This is great power politics.And President Trump had a choice.

You either let Iran get on the trajectory, control removes 100 percent.become the fourth center of world power, or you physically take it back.There's no other way around it.And in order to avoid where we are, sir, what you would need to do is physically withdraw all of the forces here.And some people were arguing for that.Joe Camp was arguing for that effectively.

Ron Paul was arguing for that effectively.So there were voices arguing to, if we marched in, we could march out.And President Trump just wouldn't go that far because he'd lose MAGA and he needs MAGA.So this is the problem.I think the reason people are having a hard time seeing it is most of the media is not really very much into MAGA.They haven't gone to, I've been to Trump rallies because that's part of my book, Our Own Worst Enemies.

This is my field research.I've been to Butler's all weekend with these folks.These folks are, they're loyal to Trump only if he is a winner.This isn't this is another way to think about it is they they have faith in Trump not because he's a good man Okay it's because he's a winner and once he lets Iran become the fourth center of world power and On the road to getting nuclear weapons for real and where's the actual option in here?come up with to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons?All of the people on from the JCPOA explained Trump's getting nowhere with stopping Iran getting nuclear weapons.

So everybody agrees fundamentally that the only way to stop this is to let Iran keep Hormuz and keep its nuclear threshold, or if not over the threshold status.And that's the problem for Trump.He can't own that L and keep MAGA for the midterms.

On this trajectory, my sense is that he's going to be Hoover and lose her moves.

That's what happens.That's how Lyndon Johnson, so what he's doing is he's trying to avoid becoming Herbert Hoover.And what he'll likely become is Lyndon Johnson.And there's no way for him to become Ronald Reagan.He's looking for a way for him to become Ronald Reagan, pull a rabbit out of the hat.This is going to somehow, you know, like with the air traffic control strike, you know, with Ronald Reagan, suddenly everybody will be, oh my God, it was the most brilliant thing.

But the reason this happens, and I studied preventive wars for a living for 30 years, so I'm not just generally studying international relations.Preventive wars happen because the attackers see certain loss, and then they take highly risky actions to avoid a certain loss.So think of it as they see 100 % loss, and now they take a risk it's only 80%.And that's what we're seeing here in all the commentary.Everybody's saying this is almost surely going to fail.Well, for President Trump, that's right, but to not do it is an even worse outcome for him.

and his presidency.If the world suffers, that's secondary for Trump.

Yeah, well, we're all screwed.Professor Pape, thanks as always.the brutal answer.

I wish I had better news.

Maybe next week.