Special Report: How the Makerfield by-election could change everything | The News Agents

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In 24 hours time, in Makefield, potentially the entire fate of the rest of the Parliament will be determined.

You've got Burnham, he's got the wind in his sails at the moment, and so he's not terribly interested in being told by Keir Starmer, just be patient.Feels to me like you've got a police van outside with a loud hailer saying, come out with your hands up, and you've got Keir Starmer inside number 10 saying, you're going to have to come and get me.

Westminster consensus kind of move to say Burnham's got this in the bag.I don't get that sense of confidence whatsoever from Burnham's team and I think they're right not to be confident.

Would you bring Burnham back into your cabinet?Oh, Andy's a great asset and yes, I want him to have a big role in government.

Are you going to call him at the weekend and invite him back into your cabinet?

Well, I'm sure I'll talk to Andy after the weekend, of course I will.I've spoken to him many times in recent weeks and when I came into politics in 2015, It was Andy Burnham's team that I joined, and we work very well together.He's a huge asset.He's been a fantastic mayor in Manchester.And if he comes back into Parliament, I hope he wins in the by -election.

That's the Prime Minister speaking to Sky News.And you can hear there a political leader in the most uncomfortable place for a political leader to be.He knows that his fate is no longer his own.It isn't being decided in Evian, where he is at the G7 summit, and it won't be decided in Westminster.

Instead, everything hinges on what happens here in the next 24 hours.Here being Makefield in the North West, and whether Andy Burnham will be returning to Parliament and returning to challenge his leadership.Welcome to the News Agents.

The News Agents.

It's John.It's Lewis.And obviously on the night of a big international football match, Lewis wanted to come to be beside a football pitch, as he sees want, big time.And we are at Ashton Town Football Club.And a bit later in the podcast, Emily is going to be speaking to a group of voters in some focus group that she attended together.What it is?

that is making this such a keenly fought by election.Since it is a football day, John, thoughts on the pitch here at Ashton?The pitch looks absolutely bloody fantastic.Apparently Andy Burnham's played here a few times.I agree.You know, the pitch looks good, ready for a new season.

What's your prediction for tonight?Prediction for tonight?

I've no idea, but my prediction, I'm more interested in the prediction for tomorrow, which is, of course, in 24 hours time, in Makerfield, here, basically, potentially the entire fate of the rest of the Parliament will be determined.We've said many times over the last four weeks or so that there has not been a more important by -election in our modern political history.This next 24 hours is probably the pivotal moment of this Parliament because if Andy Burnham pulls off which should be, something that should be on paper almost impossible right now, which is a win in a seat where even in 2024 Labour only got a 5 ,000 or so majority.This is very high up on the reform target list.I think it's in their top 20 or so of their targets.It only requires a swing of 5, 6, 7 % or so if in circumstances where Andy Burnham is able to overcome the fact that the Labour Party is in the doldrums and still win in this most inauspicious and difficult terrain, then he will have proof of concept to the Parliamentary Labour Party to go to them and say,

look, I am your saviour and give him what he hopes and thinks the momentum he needs to seize the crown from Keir Starmer.

Yeah, that is so interesting because it's clear that in number 10, they're trying to play for time.They're trying to say, look, The most important thing after this by -election, Andy, if you win, is that we win the Manchester mayoralty, which you will have to resign.So, Andy, we want you to focus on that.And maybe then, Andy, there'll be a cabinet job for you, and you can come in and we'll embrace you.And you don't want to rush these things, because you're not ready to be prime minister.They're calling it a steeplechase strategy.

Exactly.Keep jumping those fences, Andy.What it feels to me like is you've got a police van outside with a loud hailer saying, come out with your hands up.And you've got Keir Starmer inside Number 10 saying, you're going to have to come and get me.And that seems to be the Starmer strategy right now.No, I'm not going anywhere.

No, I've got a campaign team that's up and ready.I've got a bank account set up.We've got a campaign manager.I ain't going anywhere.And he's going to try and make things as difficult as he can.Against that, you've got Burnham, who, as you say, Lewis, He's got momentum.

He's got the wind in his sails at the moment.And presumably this is the moment.And so he's not terribly interested in being told by Keir Starmer, just be patient.We can work this out over the long term.And that is the dynamic.And into which, of course, you've got Wes Streeting saying, you know, I'm prepared.

I'm prepared to give the prime minister some breathing space.You've got the weekend to think about it.But after that, you've got to announce the time of your departure.Yes, we basically had it over the last 24 hours.

We've had the three, it seems to me, really important or players in what is to come over the course of the next week, or three of the most important players anyway.Burnham has been silent.He's basically not been doing any interviews since he didn't appear to remember what the fiscal rules were with the BBC.Partly I think it's a bit of a silly question, but there we go.I think his team decided that they wanted to pull back andthat.

So we've really heard very little from him.He's been focusing on the by -election here and speaking to voters.That's what his team has been briefing.Starmer, the Prime Minister, very interesting, I think, that interview at the G7 conference, because he did move a little bit.On the one hand, his team have been briefing relentlessly, and he echoed that in what he said to Beth Ruby and other broadcasters, that he, come what may, will fight any leadership contest.Remember that as the incumbent leader of the Labour Party, if there is a contest trigger under the party rules, he goes on the ballot to members automatically.

He doesn't have to get endorsements from his MPs in the parliamentary Labour Party.They have been briefing that ferociously.Prime Minister, it is said, feels that he has a sense of duty to the country that he must undertake and he wants to continue the mandate.We can talk about whether that's true or not, but that's apparently how he feels.Yet in that same interview, he did also move move a little bit on the question of whether he will fight the next election.So previously when he's been asked, will you fight the next election or not, he has said yes, unreservedly, without qualification, yes.

In that interview he said he wants to.That was him saying to Burnham's team.that you don't have all of the cards.This might have to be a negotiated settlement in order to ensure that this doesn't end up in a sort of fit of bloodlust within the Labour Party and toxin and poison that infuses within the Labour Party.You have a bloody acrimonious contest throughout the course of the next couple of months.And then on the other hand as well, you have Wes Streeting also playing his own particular game, as you say, John, saying that if the Prime Minister doesn't come to his senses this time next week, then come what may, he will trigger a contest.

you know, presumably still trying to magnify and amplify his own power and his own sense of being in this as best he can.

I think what's so interesting about this by -election is, look, you frame it in its historical context and, you know, I can't think of any by -electionmy lifetime where so much has been riding on it because, you know, effectively you could be deciding who the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is and we've never had a by -election of that importance before.And so you have got the most massive interest in the candidates in this by -election.And what they're doing in public is in inverse proportion to the amount of interest there is.You've hardly seen Andy Burnham doing interviews.As you have said, he's kept his media appearances to the bare minimum.

Rob Kenyon, the reform candidate, who is the main challenger, has been on Question Time, but that didn't go so well for him.

It's not entirely surprising they've limited his media appearances.

No, not at all.But what you've got is that you've got both camps trying to protect their candidates because With Andy Burnham, he's not being asked about what you're going to do for Makerfield, he's being asked about what you're going to do for the country and when you become Prime Minister and if you become Prime Minister and how you're going to challenge it.And you've got Kenyon who, let's be honest about it, isn't the sharpest tool in the box and has said some pretty unsavoury things in his past and doesn't want to be questioned.So you've got both candidates being shielded to some extent and it's interesting talking to people here in Makerfield.We went to the Labour Club where they were kind of organising mass canvassing today.One, I was struck by the fact that there isn't that much confidence around And two, how many people are coming in from all over the country to be part of this?

This is a group of people who'd come down from Cumbria and this was their third or fourth visit to Makefield.

The closer it is to the election day, the realer it gets, doesn't it?So people really start to focus their minds.Do you think it'll be a big turnout?Because normally by -elections, I mean there hasn't been a by -election like this.I think it's a big turnout.This has been well canvassed and people are interested.

That's what it feels like.I think it's pretty tight as well.

And that's why we're positive and optimistic and we shouldn't be overconfident, of course we shouldn't be.We can't take people's opinions and vote this for granted and we're not going to do that.But hopefully Andy will win and deliver real change, that's what we need.

We've just got to respect the people and it's the people of Makefield that will make the difference.

Are you more confident about Andy Burnham winning or England winning tonight?

Both results we tied, but they're both wins.

I agree.I agree.

You know, we are quietly confident, but we're not taking anything for granted, just like England.Come on, Andy.

Thank you.It's interesting talking to Labour people, but also people just this morning over the last 24 hours, you know, senior in Burnham's campaign.They're feeling, and look, preface this by saying there's always a bit of expectations management with this stuff when they're talking to journalists.But I don't think they're completely flannelling me when they're trying to get across that they're far less confident than the received wisdom has become.It feels like over the last five days, week or so, the kind of Westminster consensus herd has kind of moved to say Burnham's got this in the bag.Yeah.

I don't get that sense of confidence whatsoever from Burnham's team.And I think they're right not to be confident.I think we're getting a bit, or we have been a bit, and the Westminster lobby have been a bit overawed by two things.One is we see these constituency polls which show that Burnham is ahead.Constituency polling is very difficult to do.It's often on small samples.

The margin of error is massive.Even then, it doesn't show Burnham so far ahead as to be outside, often, that margin of error.And I also think that Burnham's own personal star power, which is significant.And as you say, John, let's be clear.If it were anybody else in this campaign, any other Labour person, we wouldn't even be here, because it would be a foregone conclusion.Reform would be winning it at a canter.

however poor their own candidate is.And so I think those two things are coming together to occlude from them and to make them forget just how tough terrain this seat is.Labour could win.If we had a general election tomorrow, rather than a by -election.And Labour got a majority, just a bare majority, let's say 326 seats, 330 seats or so.Labour would still lose make or fill on that sort of swing.

That's how tough this is.Even, as I said at the top, even in the landslide of 2024, reform did really well.There's more of the Conservative vote that they can drill down into.It only requires a swing of 5%, 6%, 7%.They won in runcorn.last year, which was just down the road and with a way bigger swing, albeit with only a small majority, but with a way bigger swing.

Let's look at the recent local election results.Reform won every single councillor in those elections in this part of the world just a few weeks ago.And so you put all of that together and actually on paper, the fact that Labour's even competitive, the fact that Burnham is even competitive, I think is actually pretty remarkable.

Yeah, I think that's absolutely spot on.I was talking to one of the Labour organisers this morning and he was saying that in Gorton and Denton, in the Gorton and Denton by -election a few months ago, on the day of polling, Labour had 1 ,000 people knocking on doors, you know, making sure that people were going out to vote.And he says this time it will be even bigger.I mean, the resource that is being thrown in...

Well, someone told me that the labour machine, which has, as you say, been invested entirely in his constituency for purposes of this thing, they have knocked on every door in his constituency six times.Six times.It doesn't mean everyone always answered, but they have knocked on every door in the constituency six times.And that's just the Labour Party.In fact, one guy said, with a bit of bad language, just as a warning.One guy was telling me, he was like, one fella...

You're not supposed to give us a warning.I know.Well, I've learned from the best.He basically, like, knocked on some guy's door.he turns to him he's like look I've told you I'm voting for you please just fuck off because otherwise if you knock on my door once more I won't be.Poor people.

Look just as we were walking here I just saw this guy putting stuff in his rubbish bin and he wouldn't go on camera but we've recorded his voice about what you thought was going on.This gentleman has just opened up his wheelie bin and it's full of election leaflets ahead of the by -election.Are you fed up with it?I am indeed.That's 16 at the last count, one this morning makes it up to 17.And it's just been non -stop has it?

Every day.And knocking on your door as well?

Knocking on my door as well.

Yeah and you obviously don't want to show your face because you know you've got a job and you don't want to see it but this is crazy isn't it?It's just overwhelming.It is, I can't believe and they talk about saving the planet and the paper and the trees etc and I've got literally a tree in my bin.I'm sure the people around here will be absolutely relieved when we bugger off out of it and the place comes back to being a place free of politicians, free of canvassers and free of journalists like you and me.Because there are an awful lot of people who have descended on Makerfield to be part of this.We spoke to the guy who's the commercial manager of Ashton Town Football Club, who's kind enough to let us film here, Mark Cowley, and he was telling us that actually, you know, this election would have been so different if it had just been an ordinary Labour candidate running.

So, Mark, have you had the whole media circus around here over the last four weeks?Yes, everybody.Everybody?Yes.

We even hear LBC's in town.

Yeah, LBC wants to do a penalty shootout on the pitch.Reform B, Labour, but maybe a bridge too far.

And they're in the worst pub in Makefield, you tell us.

Yeah, I can't name it, but yes.

How do you think it's going to go on Thursday?

I think maybe Labour may just win.The Andy Burnham effect is a big thing round here.That is not a political bias of me, it is just my thoughts.I think Labour may just win.

Let me ask the other question then, what happens if it hadn't been Andy Burnham standing and it had just been some nobody, local councillor, whatever?

The recent council elections there was 26 wards in the area and reform 125 and the only one they didn't win was a local independent who basically builds his own little area like a little hero so Labour was nowhere and I think it would probably would have been the same.

And you talk to loads of businesses and you know people here every week, what do they think of Brand Labour?

So leaving Burnham out of it?

What do they think of Labour, do you think?

They think what I think.I'm a local businessman and I think the economy is completely flat.People aren't spending.The pensions are sitting on the money, or the young ones are frightened to spend.And it has that feeling.I've discussed that today at work, that we have that feeling that we're stumbling along.

And I, as a businessman, don't want to stumble along, really, for another two or three years.

Mark, can you explain to me the impact of Birmingham?Because, I mean, look, here you are, Ashton Town, football club.If Andy Burnham becomes the MP, becomes the Prime Minister, this is his local football club.Presumably that has an impact and people are thinking well this could be huge.

Yeah of course it could.Andy has played here and he says he's a supporter of Ashton Town.He's played here many times.He only lives up the road in Goulburn and hopefully if he does become Prime Minister he will support his local football club because he's a big football supporter.So yeah that's what everybody hopes.

And do you think that has an effect on how people are going to vote?

I don't think it would have an effect on Ashton Town.People won't think of Ashton Town.I think people in Ashton may just think that if it becomes Prime Minister, then it may benefit Ashton, yes.I think that's what's going to happen.sway a few people's votes, not mine particularly, but I think it would sway a few people, yes.

And reform?I mean do you think, in terms of how they're perceived, because they are still relatively new, why do you think so many people find them so appealing?

It's a protest vote.People are fed up with tourism and labour and it's just a protest vote.People feel as though they don't know where to go, they don't know who to complain to, they've not listened.Everything is London, no -one's bothered about Ashton in Makefield, suddenly we're the centre of the universe, no -one's heard of us before.No -one's heard of Adelaide, no -one's heard of Wigan, and all of a sudden, but people don't know who to complain to.

So although on one level you'll be pleased when this is all over and people like us disappear and, you know, life goes back to normal, it has had an effect in terms of, you know, making people aware, Not just about Makefield and Ashton, but also about the fact that people feel they're fed up with the two main parties.They're fed up of not being listened to.Yeah, definitely.

People are fed up, as I just said.People are fed up.It's a process, folks.That's what reform is.And Farage is tapping into it nicely and saying the right things.And people want to listen, stop the votes, et cetera.

People want to hear things like that.And it has that effect on the vote, as it did in the local elections.

OK, Mark, great to talk to you.Thank you very much indeed.Thanks, Mark.I think what Mark said there is a really interesting point.I think there's been a lot of, I think sometimes slightly patronising commentary from some of the Westminster press.basically saying that local people always want local politicians.

And actually, people are way smarter.What Mark was saying there is completely right.People, as they say in America, they can smell pork.A bit of pork barrel politics, which might be coming their way.I .e.

, you know what?Having the prime minister as your local MP, particularly, by the way, this will still most certainly be a very marginal seat.We will have a prime minister with an unusually marginal seat who would have to be thinking about, how do I retain my own seat?in a general election, probably does mean that I think Makefield would not be...I think the old government investment projects, the odd pot of funding, the odd perhaps new stand here at Ashton, you know what I mean?

The Ashton County East stand.

The Andy Burnham stand, just 60 foot high I think, you know, really get this football club going.Don't you think that that's...Well, I think people are smart enough.to be completely alive to that.And, you know, it sort of actually made me think a little bit about Makefield itself, just listening to that.How unbelievably crucial it's been, right, in terms of maybe the future of our politics, that Makefield has been the seat that's been chosen.

Because imagine if Burnham had been allowed to stand in Gorton.how different this campaign would have been.If he was campaigning to his left this entire time, he would have made a lot of different decisions, had to, in order to win that seat.Whereas having to campaign in Makefield, with a very different sort of seat than it is, very different sort of constituency profile, different sort of voters, has meant he's had to attack to the right, a bit more socially conservative, a bit more in the reforms direction, given that those are his principal challenges.Basically, the choice of seats, which has been pretty contingent really, it could easily have been the other way around, potentially be an utterly instrumental for the future of the rest of this Parliament.

So we've just left Ashton Town Folklore Club and we thought that's a wrap and then we came across the reform bus and two people on it who are local councillors in Bolton and we wanted to speak to them about what is happening here in Makefield.

Gentlemen, just introduce yourselves.I'm Mark Tucker, a reform councillor for Bolton.

I'm Trevor Jones, I'm the leader for reform in Bolton Council.Just newly elected.

Well congratulations on being elected and you're here with your bus.

I'm the reform bus driver, yeah.I've been for the last four years.

It's all glamour at the top of local government, isn't it?

Yeah, the bus, it's a fantastic machine.It's promoted reform no end all over the country.And it's also promoted me.A lot of people know me because of the bus.In fact, most people put me first.They say, oh, it's the bus driver.

They don't mention that.I'm the leader of the Council for Reform.I'm a councillor.I'm the chairman of Bolton.They don't mention that stuff.They mention the bus driver.

Right.So what's going to happen tomorrow?

It's going to be close.I think we can just pip it.I hope we do, because there's a lot of effort going in, a lot of effort with reforming it here.You know, signage -wise, we've got a lot more signs up than anybody else.I just hope there's no damage done by other parties, I'll be honest.What do you mean by that?

By restore?Oh yeah, we've got to win this, we need to win it, because the last thing we need is Andy Burnham getting back in politics at this level.From a party's point of view, it would be easy getting rid of Starmer than him.He's better, isn't he?You'd be afraid of Burnham?No, not afraid, because I just think the whole set -up of him becoming Prime Minister, he's just total...

Rubbish, isn't he?To be honest.What he's done in Greater Manchester.I live in Bolton, which comes under Greater Manchester.He's done absolutely nothing for us.He's been depressing.

I only call him the King of the North.I've no idea.

Just one other thing.I mean, when we were just...John was speaking to you in the bus and we were just here.Car pulls up.Young lady is in the car.She says...

We don't even speak to her.She just says, Rob Kenyon, he's a sexist.He's a sexist.So we've just met you.You were just in your car.You were just going to...

Let's go to the shop.

Yeah.

And I heard you over here in front of this reform bus with Rob Kenyon.You just said sexist.

Yeah.

Why'd you say that?

Well, I've seen loads of videos and stuff like of what he said about women and that he's sexist and he doesn't care.

What did you say?They say they're not those things.

They just say they're saying common sense.There's proof that there is though.The proof that they are.Like there's literal proof that they are.Like he literally said, he said I'm sexist.He said it himself, didn't he?

So.can you really argue when he said it is himself?

What do you say to young women like that?

They're picking out straws, aren't they?You go back on anybody, go back on you, go back on you and go back on me 20 years.We've all said silly things at certain times.I've never endorsed anybody online who said that they're going to lick Carol Vorderman's arsehole.If people say things, it's a normal work in town.You go in any of these pubs on a Saturday night and hear what they're talking about and they're lambaging, you'll say, yeah, I understand.

No, I don't agree with things like that.No, I think it's wrong.But we've all done things wrong.You can't pick stuff up from 20 years ago of what somebody said.It's had an effect.Would you say it's had an effect?

No, not really.Not with the people here.It might have had an effect with people in London.

That young lady there wasn't from London.She lives here.

I don't know.I didn't hear her, but you're saying she said that.She did.She may well have done, but on average, no, I don't think the people here are worried about things like that.They want a local lad who's going to do good in their neighbourhood and represent them.

But do you think the local lasses want a lad like that?

I think a lot of people who know Rob know what a decent chap he is and I think he would represent the area far better than Andy Burnham who's just using it as a stepping stone, which we all know.

I mean, he made his comments a long time ago.And of course, you mature.As you get older, you get more experienced, you get wiser about things you do.When you're younger, you do things that you regret, and a lot of people make regrets.It wasn't like he was 14 years old.

I mean, he was a fully grown man when he was making those comments.

Well, I mean, I'm 60, and the things I've done in my 20s, I go, put my hands over my head, you know, I shouldn't have done things like that.But you learn over time, and the thing is, you've got the professional politicians who can rhyme off things.I can't do it.He can't rhyme off things.He's honestly a new person who really wants to make a difference in his local community.And he's put himself forward.

Everybody'sgot bits in the past because any top politician's got bits, it always comes up.Unfortunately, you know, he regrets saying those sort of things now.I mean, at the time, it probably was a joke and stuff like that.But he didn't think he was going to be in politics.No one does think they're going to be in politics, because I'm not 62 and I've just started in politics.

You know what I mean?Never been in politics myself, never been on TV or anything like this.So this is all new to me.But he's an honest guy who wants to do the best for all the people of Makerfield.And he wants to support them.Where Andy Burnham, he just wants to use this place to jump into PM's seat.

And that's the only reason this guy's you know, pulled out, you know, stopped being an MP and giving his place to Andy Burnham so he can get in to become Prime Minister.And far as I understand, he's a lot more left than Keir Starmer, which that's not going to help the country at all.It's going to make it even worse.

It's not just any by -election.The ramifications of it are going to be massive, aren't they, really?It will determine, possibly, who the next Prime Minister is.People don't look.at the facts.

It was almost like Ku Klux Klan behaviour.That's the only way I could describe it.If Burnham does get in, it's on his personal brand and his personal merriment.Because it does kind of make you think, is he disassociating himself with Labour?Is he disassociating himself with Starmer?

We didn't come out of Europe.We had Brexit, but we never came out.We're still tied to them.They're still saying what we can do.And that, to me, is what's wrong.

Piers Starmer's problem has been, from the word go, broke the manifesto, promises.He's weak.

He's a weak Prime Minister.I think he had a lot of inherited challenges but I think the major issue has been his communication.Yeah, I just think it's the media.that portray reform as racist, but when you look at the top people in reform, they're not actually racist.I think he is using language like invasion, floodgates.

We've got people who are now migrants who have committed crime, been found guilty.on the walk in the street.

as well, who have all come to be part of a focus group for More in Common and Luke Trill.And the thing that really jumps out at you as you listen to them speak is how extraordinarily politically engaged every single one of them was.They knew the candidates.They knew their names.They knew their TV appearances.They knew what they'd said.

They knew what they thought of party leaders, too.And you're going to hear some of their voices in my interview with Luke as we go through the main issues and the main decisions facing them just 12 hours out from the Makerfield by -election result.So Luke, I want to start with your spiel at the beginning because I guess the point about a focus group, the only thing that really matters is that you can believe it, right, that you know people are telling you the truth.How do you know people are actually telling you the truth?

Well, I think the important thing with focus groups, and I think this is something that people sometimes miss, is what we're not trying to do is get together a load of people who like talking about politics day -to -day, you know, a sort of question time style audience, because actually they're not representative of normal people.So what you're trying to do is bring together a group of people whowhen they're first recruited, very often don't know if they're going to be talking about types of chocolate, mouthwash, a new ad campaign, or about politics.Obviously, you tell them before they start the group.And so what that means, then, is you've got to, in the beginning of the discussion, create the environment where people can talk about things that they're perhaps not used to talking about day to day.they'll talk about with their friends, but actually they wouldn't imagine talking about it with a group of strangers.

And so setting rules around, you know, there's no right or wrong answers, actually saying from the beginning, not just it's okay to disagree, but I expect there will be disagreement, but also agreement, sort of warning them that I will often play devil's advocate.You know, the most important part of a focus group is the first five minutes, because if you don't set the sort of comfort in the group at that stage and make people think I can say what I think and it's fine then actually and you know there have been times when I haven't done it well enough and the whole group's felt a bit stilted as a result.

So we are one day out from the vote I mean some people have already voted by post.Was there anything in what you heard today that surprised you?

Well I think you know I mean having been talking to people in Makefield for the best part of a month now, I thought what was really interesting, because this is our final focus group before the result, is that, A, there are still people who genuinely seem conflicted and undecided.And we heard about the sort of different currents that were going through their minds.I mean, there was a strong view that Keir Starmer couldn't pull it back really, and whether he was outright bad or just a bad communicator varied in the group.And then the question was...would Andy Burnham as PM benefit Makefield?And there were some people who said, yeah, now having the Prime Minister from Makefield would be great.

There were other people who thought that would be the end.Makefield would get no representation.

Let's just hear from Mike, who said nothing at all for about the first 10 minutes, and then suddenly just came out with a banger.

Uncle Keir Starmer, I can't stand the guy.He is very wishy -washy.He comes across as having no personality whatsoever.He can't make a decision without backtracking or going and checking that it's the right decision with somebody else.The people he's surrounded himself with, two that come to mind.One is Rachel from Accounts, who hasn't got a clue.

She's in the process now of screwing pensioners good time by cancelling the uh triple lock she's already screwed veterans i'm paying tax on my veterans pension already um and the other one is david lammy who keeps losing prisoners and he hasn't got a clue estama's dead to be honest with you he stands up and just no personality whatsoever and he's got a bit of oomph in him I don't agree with his policies.He's hell -bent on taking us back into Europe and we've fought long and hard to get out of Europe.

So he says basically Starmer's dead, but he's not anti -Labour entirely, was he?When it came to Burnham he said he's personable, he used this word personable.

Yeah, and it was interesting.He clearly thought that Burnham would be an improvement on Starmer.That was important.He had some specific areas where he was worried about Labour policy.He was a veteran himself and he was worried about legislation around Northern Ireland.But he was still weighing up which way to go.

But the interesting thing again was for him it was that worry ofyou get an MP who's the Prime Minister do they just abandon the seat and he actually made a proposal to the group which is that actually if your MP becomes Prime Minister you ought to get a second one and everyone in the group seemed to like that idea it seemed to sort of assuage their consent completely although saying that you know I was talking to a a former cabinet minister about just this recently.And they said, you know, what a lot of people don't realise is that if your MP is the prime minister, actually you get a lot of attention because no cabinet minister ignores a letter from the prime minister about something going wrong in their patch.

Exactly.So in other words, you're on the map.And they all they all talked about sort of feeling like it was the centre of the world and being on the map.I want to talk about Sam because she raised a pretty protest that has happened here locally and she used the words we're breeding hate.I just want to play you the clip of her saying she was really worried about the kind of language and the kind of threats that the protests were bringing.

Word of reform is the people that it actually attracts and the mentality of those people and I am really like this on who I'm going to vote I'll be honest with you.When I took my little girl Buskin for the first time, wonderful singer, took her into Wigan and it was the day the protests were on, and people were screaming, send them back, send them back.The hatred and the twisted look on these people's faces.But what broke my heart was, kids were shouting this, and I thought, we are breeding hate.And it doesn't matter who you vote for, but to take your chances and have this scream at somebody else.But what I will say is, if I was needing a blood transfusion, I would take the blood of any coloured person that was in this country.

And you would too.So she's against open borders, but she wants to make the point she's clearly not racist.But she also said she got a lot of stuff for free.kids.And I think a few people here said, you know, it was their own kids, their 14 year olds, clearly very online and very engaged, that were helping their parents understand politics, maybe for the first time.

Yeah, and I think what was interesting was that across the group, people saying that actually that level of engagement was a good thing that they'd, you know, their children and you know, I think someone, I can't remember if it was Sam, I said she was flabbergasted to have her children talking about politics and debating, you know, some of them being Labour, some of them being Reform, and I think...

I suppose Louise said there was a conversation in the back of the car with two 10 -year -olds.I find the young people an absolute inspiration because, so my son is, well, our children are 10 and he was telling me about a discussion he had with a friend who's a reform voter and he's for Andy Burnham and it was such a mature discussion and I questioned him and I said, you know, he's going to be you're gonna reflect me, he's gonna reflect his parents, what did you answer to that?And he actually went away, he did some more research, and I said, and what about at the end of the discussion, were you all still friends?And he was like, yeah, of course.I said, you know what, that sounds like one of the most mature by -election discussions I've actually heard.And then, yeah.

And it's same with the students, because Winston -Lee College has had a lot of attention.So a group of my students, It actually interviewed Sarah Wakefield, came up with all their own questions.They've been involved in the Hustings.And the way that the young people that I've come into contact discuss politics is just fantastic.It's respectful, it's reasoned.And I think there is hope for the future, but some of the wider discourse has been a bit more divisive.

They thought that that level of engagement was a great thing that, you know, and they talked about, you know, the green candidates.having visited the local college as well and it was clear you know they thought that was a good thing but in general you know not just the kids I mean what was striking was you know I do these groups for by elections all the time Most of the time, people can't name the candidates.Half the people, you know, aren't aware that there's a by -election going on.They'll talk about national politics.Here, people are following the twists and the turns of it.And it means that kind of almost every moment counts.

And to that point about Sam, the interesting thing about Sam is I think she's quite reflective of what I call reform second 15 percent.So the group that get them up from the 15 percent that they got at the general election to the 30 % or above that they would need to start forming a government.And look, you know, on issues like channel crossings, you know, she was very clear they need to be controlled.But what was giving her pause, what had put her off reform was being in Wigan whilst there was that anti -immigration protest, seeing, you know, she described kids saying, you know, send them back.And I think For her, that made her just think, actually, what is reform?going to unleash.

And we speak to a lot of women, like Sam, who are like, things are pretty bad.I do want to roll the dice on something new.But I'm just worried reform are a bit too extreme.And I think she summed up, actually, their challenge.It seemed very likely now that she was going to go for Andy Burnham.

It felt like there was a gender difference, like the people who voiced their concerns about racism or about the language or about the approach were all women.Right.There was also really interesting sort of dialogue going on between John and Jeff, and Jeff is a fact checker.He takes his analysis, you know, fact checkingreally seriously.And he was crossed with John, who just sort of spewed out stuff that he'd heard without checking it.

I guess this comes back to the whole question of how quickly some of the fake news stories are travelling at the moment, particularly the one about Burnham's wife being the CEO of an electric vehicles company.

So I researched it and I found that at the time that decisions were being made about the clean air zone, Burnham's wife was not actually on the board at all initially.Her marketing company did some work for an EV firm.and so Andy Burnham recoused himself from all of those decisions regarding contracts and her role in that firm has increased since.She's still not the CEO, she has now got a position on the board, but Andy Burnham did declare that interest, so he did absolutely what he was supposed to do, he declared the interest, And he recused himself from being involved in those decisions.

I think we were barely 10 minutes into the focus group and that allegation that either the clean air zone had been imposed because Burnham's wife was CEO of an EV company or that Burnham was trying to force people to get EVs came out.And there were a few people, I mean, John clearly, you know, believed what he had read.Others in the group said, well, electric vehicles company.I think we were barely 10 minutes into the focus group and that allegation that either the clean air zone had been imposed because Burnham's wife was CEO of an EV company or that Burnham was trying to force people to getwas Why wouldn't it be true?Others, Louise the teacher, had gone away and had a look at it and found out that that wasn't quite the truth.

Similarly with Jeff as well.But it was interesting, you know, that it permeated across group whether people believed it or not.And when I asked people, Well, where'd you heard that?Where'd you got it from?It was from Facebook.They had seen it in local Facebook groups.

But they still call it the news.

The news.

As if it's a thing, right?

They still absolutely call it the news, which I think tells you something about the fact that Facebook is now seeing us on a par with traditional news.It's also interesting if you look at someone like Rupert Lowe, his rise has almost entirely been driven by Facebook.People talk about X, but actually, for decades, X is for more politically engaged people.Rupert Lure has 1 .2 million, I think, followers on Facebook, and the Prime Minister has 700 ,000.So he is reaching people through that medium, and it's made him turn a one -man band into a party which was being discussed in this group, even if people weren't planning on voting for them.

When it came to reform, the language of Robert Kenyon came up, you brought it up, and it was quite interesting that the women in particular were divided between those who kind of went, Yeah, I don't care, frankly.You know, he sounds a bit of an idiot, but I, but I just don't, I don't give enough of a damn.And the woman who said actually, it's setting a really horrible example for our young and for women who want to go into public service and for anyone who thinks that that's fine.But it sort of came, ended up coming back down to Farage and why he hadn't sort of slapped him down enough.

I'm from a generation where men may make comments like that women gave as good as they got, you know, theybatted it back really, and I just think it's, I don't know, I don't know how long ago he made these comments, but they're historical I think, some of them, and I don't, it doesn't matter to me to be honest.You've had people on Facebook patronising me saying, you know, you're a woman and you feel like that, but It's personal, isn't it?

I do get that you don't want to be... no one probably wants to be judged by the worst thing they've said when they've had a pint, which is probably what he's had when he's made some of them.But I don't like the way that it's been handled.My concern is, for me, if he would have come out and said, I made those really stupid comments, I didn't actually know any better.when I made a lot of those comments.Some of the most recent ones were two years ago, so that is a bit typical, but you can still change in two years.And he'd come out and said, I am committed to doing better now.

Although I obviously didn't intend to cause offence, I am sorry to those who I've offended, and I am committed to positive language.I would not say anything like that, and I do not want to encourage young boys to be imitate that language.What I'm worried about is what message are we sending to our young people when we're saying, oh, that's just how normal blokes in the area speak.And it's not really a generational thing from Rob.He's literally, I think he's three years older than me.We went to the same high school.

We've got very, very similar upbringing.We're very, very much lives intertwined.We've chosen different career paths.But aside from that, we're both ordinary people in the Wigan area my brother was my dad well my dad's actually came from st. Helens as well but they wouldn't speak like that and and like I don't want tosons to speak like that.

Exactly.I thought that was what was very interesting.As I say, from some of the women in the group, there was sympathy in a sense that women can give as good as they get as well.But where they seem to be united as a group, or almost united, was this sense of, why hasn't he apologized?Why did Nigel Farage come out and double down on it?And it makes me think, I think every time reform go wrong, or where they make a mistake, where they fall out of line with public opinion, is when they confuse the UK with the US.

And I think that what Farage was trying to do was that kind of Trumpian, actually, if you apologise, you're losing, never apologise, move forward.That works in the US.Actually, people in Britain are pretty fair -minded on this stuff.If you say, look, you know, I said some stupid things, I'm really sorry, I shouldn't have done that.

That still works.

Do you think it still works?Absolutely in the UK, most people have gone.But the lack of apology was what seemed to frustrate people more.I also thought it was interesting that the bigger criticism of Robert Kenyon was just that people didn't think he was up to it.They'd seen him on Question Time, they worried that he wasn't able to articulate himself in a way that they wanted from their representative.

We've sort of got ourselves in a knot because you hear that conversation the whole time about how we need real people in politics and we don't want professional politicians and we want anyone to be able to step up and then of course It is probably harder than we realize, right?Yeah, absolutely.

And I think sometimes people in Westminster, certainly based on what we've heard up here in Ashton and other areas in Makefield, I think they misread it.It's not that people want people who are totally sort of unqualified.It's that they want people who are in touch.And it's interesting.hearing what they said about Andy Burnham, somehow he manages to get, be in that sweet spot between, you know, sort of polished and impressive enough that people think he's up to the job, but also we kept on hearing, personable, we kept on hearing relatable, we kept on seeing Wigan to his core.They knew what school his kids had been to, they knew exactly where he lived.

So there's something in it, I think there's been a bit of a misdiagnosis in some of the commentary about what people want from their politicians and it's not quite as simple as someone who's never done politics before.

So I'm trying to think if I heard anything in that hour and a half which was specifically negative to Burnham.And you raise the fact that people worry about Makerfield getting left out, or they worry that it's a stepping stone to something more, or they worry that he's been out of politics for a while, and he hasn't got his sort of, you know, mojo back in Westminster.But I don't think we heard anything today, which was a specific criticism of him himself did we?

Not really.John didn't like his buses or the abortive clean air zone.Mike was a bit worried about the veterans piece but there wasn't really that thing.The central question of this by -election hasn't changed in a month which is four people here Will we be better or worse off with Andy Burnham as MP and Prime Minister?And some people think they'll be better off, some people think they'll be worse off.And ultimately, that is going to be the decisive question.

Reform haven't been able to land a knockout blow.I think it's arguable this is the second by -election in a row where their candidate has held them back a little bit.And we heard someone else say that, you know, they wished that Reform had picked...Karen said they should have picked Zia Yousaf.as the candidate, someone like that.Now look, he might still win, polling shows that.

race is tight, there are still lots of undecideds, and there were undecideds here.

And there's quite a few Kemi fans in the room.When her name came up, it felt like a sort of bubble of a cheer.

All my friends, you know, of my age group and everything, absolutely love her because she's been compared with my friends, compared to sort of Margaret Thatcher with humour.She's growing into her own as well.

It was, and again, that's been pretty common, not just in Makerfield, but around the country, this sense of, we like Kemi Beisnock, Pauline described her as Margaret Thatcher with humour.And yet, in the same breath, they say, but you know, we're not being conservative.It's a sort of, it's almost like what people used to say about Nick Clegg and Charles Kennedy, right, in the 2010s, really like the leader, but there's no point in voting for the party.

Last question, when you've, I mean, you've been here a few times now, I'm sure you've seen plenty of sort of journalists, us around, have you seen a lot of, have the cabinet come up here?Have you seen Labour, how do they play this?If you're a Labour MP, do you, do you campaign for Burnham?Or is that seen as, unfaithful.

I think a lot of the cabinet have been up here making visits.In fact, last time I was getting the train down, Pat McFadden and I had to do a limbo on the train from Wigan North West and back to Euston in the Isles.So people are up here.You've obviously got the the boards that you have to sign when you come up to say you've been up I think there were lots of Labour MPs are keen to have their name on that board but even even today when my colleague was getting off the train I think Sweller Bartherman was there as well so you know it almost is like the whole of Westminster has descended on Makerfield.It's like we've adopted the EU's Strasbourg Parliament systemkind of by default, where you spend most of your time in one place and then you go up to another for the thing.

But yeah, it's clearly become, you know, it has become, as people said, the epicentre of the universe.Thank you.Thank you.

And before we go, Lewis Goodall's well -known attempts to win friends and influence people has taken and opened a new chapter in the past 24 hours.We all know how much support he won when he said there should be 100 % inheritance tax and no one should be allowed to pass any money on to their children at all.Well, he's now gone after Prince George and the fact that he will be going to Eton.And you tweeted that out.

The people who are against 100 % inheritance tax, John, I think the Venn diagram between them and supporters of the monarchy, it's quite a shaded area in the middle there.I think the royals are definitely not in favour of 100 % inheritance tax.

So you said it was not exactly the sign of greatest bit of modernising of the royal family that he's going to eat in.What was the reaction you got on X?

Well, the main thing that I took away from it, John, was the extraordinary number of people who seemed to be absolutely furious at my suggestion that our future head of state might want to go to a state school and that that would be completely and utterly disgusting and ridiculous.Look, I mean, look, I'm old fashioned about these things.I know you've told me many times, John, how what a modernising force King Charles is and Prince William.and I just thought, I just thought that given your assurances all these years, I mean, they could have sent him at least to Marlborough or somewhere, couldn't they?You know, really give a sop to the modernisers like me.Yeah, you'd have been happy with Marlborough.

We say Marlborough.A cigarette, yeah.

Or a Benson & Hedges, whatever.Whatever's needed.It's interesting though, isn't it, the reaction that was so vehement, and also that it was, essentially, you're just a product of class envy, and you went to an Oxford College, because you must have a silver spoon in your mouth if you went to an Oxford College.

Yeah I do like the idea that I did enjoy that quite a lot being told that basically going to a higher education institution which you know for all of its faults fundamentally there has to be a little bit of merit to it sometimes a little bit is exactly the same as being is having your parents pay £60 ,000 a year to go to Eton and literally be born into a job.I mean it's the other thing I mean you know Does he need to go to school?

What do you mean, does he need to go to school?Well, I mean, we already know what his job is going to be.

I mean, he just needs to cut tape, doesn't he?

Lord Fauntleroy and I will be back in the studio tomorrow.We'll see you then.Bye bye.God save the King.

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