Starmer hit by Burnham's by-election bombshell | The Daily T

The King of the North is assembling his troops ready to march on Westminster.Andy Burnham has finally found a seat for his epic chicken run.

The left -wing Mayor of Manchester looks set to become the main challenger to the Prime Minister.But can he even win, Makerfield?Reform is nipping at his heels.

their tax and spend your way to growth, which as Kemi Batelock pointed out this week is like binge drinking your way to sobriety.It's complete and utter nonsense.And also this whole Andy Burnham's the greatest mayor that has ever run anything.is frankly for the birds.He's calling for more devolution a week after the Labour Party has been destroyed in Scotland and Wales.Where's devolution got us in Scotland?

It's almost broken up the union.Where's devolution got us in Wales?The Labour -run Welsh government has bankrupted that small nation.Morning, Tim.The fog of anaesthetic has worn off.I'm back in the land of the living.

It's so strange going under.I haven't had a general anaesthetic in years.Yeah.I looked obviously terrible.I had my glasses on.I'm in a gown and you know what it's like, like you've tied it up at the back.

And, um, he was just about to put me under and he's like, I recognize you.

Oh God.

I've been on news night.I said, yeah, now I've been on a few things.I said, I'll present this podcast with Tim Stanley.Oh yeah.He's been on news night recently as I, yeah.Anyway.

Okay.Right.In 10 seconds, you'll be under.So it's just one of those.

You could ask if he's a fan of Meghan Markle.

No, I know.I don't think I'd want to be put out on the thought of Meghan Markle.And then, of course, you wake up and everything.The whole day was a bit hazy yesterday.You and Jacob and Ben Reilly -Smith did a great job.But obviously, I was following things as I recovered in bed.

And we have yet more drama.

There were two halves to the leadership challenge to Keir Starmer.One was, would Wes Streeting resign?And yesterday he did.That's what we discussed with Ben Reilly -Smith.The other half was,would Andy Burnham find a seat?

He finally found Josh Simons.Now, this is an MP who only entered the House of Commons for Makerfield in 2024.Formerly, he was head of Labour Together, and you might argue Simons had nothing to lose.His career was going nowhere.

Yeah, people might remember that it was Josh Simons, when he was at the head of Labour Together, who commissioned an investigation into the Sunday Times journalists, Gabriel Pogrand and Harry York, formerly of The Telegraph, to try and dig dirt on them because they in turn had dug dirt on Labour together and said there have been significant problems in its accounting.And it's weird because Josh Simons, I remember even at the last Labour conference, was being touted to me as a future leader.I think he even came on my GB News show because Labour HQ were trying to push this guy.And now, I mean, a week is a long time in politics.

Fast forward to today.He was never going to be a future leader.He doesn't have the hair.Nonetheless, he has agreed to step aside.And he stepped aside saying the following for decades Westminster has overseen the managed decline of towns like mine How would he know he's only been representing it for less than two years?We have talked big then acted small stuck in a politics of incrementalism that cannot meet the moment We have lost the trust of those our party was built to serve now that dig at incrementalism It's very obviously a pop of the prime minister whose whole pitch is it's all about delivery you under promise and you over deliver and people have got to give us time.

So what Simons is saying is no, we actually need visionary leadership that promises big things to people.He continued, it is my unwavering belief that nothing short of urgent, radical, courageous reform will make a difference that must start with a change in leadership.So in other words, he's not just stepping aside to help aLabour person join the bench, like everyone's saying, it's about having all your people on the bench.He was explicitly standing aside so that Andy Burnham could enter Parliament and replace Keir Starmer.

So Andy Burnham has one hurdle to cross before he can do that, and that is to persuade the National Executive Committee, the NEC, to allow him to stand as a candidate in that by -election.Last time around, you remember, when he tried to do a chicken run, the NEC turned around and said no, favouring stability with Keir Starmer.Clearly moods have changed and indeed the Prime Minister said this week that he wouldn't personally stand in the way of Burnham standing as a candidate in another seat.So I think now, I mean it's pretty much a fait accompli isn't it Tim, that he will be allowed to be Labour's candidate.Let's just see what he has said.let down by national politics.

Ten years ago I decided to leave Westminster.Why?Because after 16 years I came to the conclusion that our national political system does not work for areas like ours.I learnt this fighting its failure to invest in the Wigan borough for justice for the Hillsborough families and against its treatment of Greater Manchester during the pandemic.Millions are struggling etc etc etc.He wants change.

Change Labour for the better and make it the party you can believe in again.Now clearly having a local candidate like Burnham does help Labour.It would be easy to look at this scene and say, well, it's not very safe.Simon's only had just under a 6 ,000 seat majority when he won it in 2024.But we have to accept that the so -called King of the North is going to attract voters beyond Labour because he's a recognisable figure.He celebrates in bringing Manchesterism to the country.

The latest polling we have from Britain predicts suggests that if there were an election tomorrow in Makerfield, Labour would get 28 % and reform would get 41%.Now that's in line with the fact that Reform UK won 50 % of the vote in the eight wards in Makefield that voted in last week's local elections.Labour got just 22%.And as you've mentioned, Camilla, Labour's majority is just shy of 6000 at the last election, which is something that Reform can overcome.And Nigel Farage has said that he would throw everything at this election.So Reform sees this as winnable.

That said, Burnham running there is a different dynamic to just a normal by -election in a Labour seat.Normally voters would use this by -election to punish the government.But if you vote for Andy Burnham, You're punishing this government because he is running in order to replace Keir Starmer.This puts Starmer in a remarkable position.It goes against every fibre of a politician's instinct to allow your biggest rival to run in a by -election.They could well easily win.

And you raise the question of will he block him?I think the more interesting question is, will Keir Starmer campaign for him?

Well, I don't think he'll be able to.That decision, by the way, from the NEC and Starmer, whether to approve Burnham's candidacy will come on Tuesday.And of course, the Daily T will be all over that.But I was speaking, I've been speaking to Labourites all morning, and there is no real way that Keir Starmer can have anything to do with this by -election for the reasons you've just mentioned, and for the fact he could actually hamper Burnham's chances.So you have, you've summarised it brilliantly, haven't you?For the lefty that he's

disgruntled with Labour and wants more left -wingism, this is a perfect vote for them because it's a two -fingered salute to Starmer while heralding in somebody that they think would be preferable and to the left of the current Prime Minister.So, the other thing is to look at here is the demographics.It's interesting, isn't it, that the greens are only on 12 % there.The area is predominantly white.It's known as sort of the posh end of Wigan.That means that there isn't necessarily a call for your sort of pro -Palestinian Gaza candidates.

Therefore, you won't have a splitting necessarily of the vote on the left.Equally, it's quite red wall -ish, and you could look at that and say, well, maybe that predominantly white demographic benefits reform, because those who voted leave in that area and they're high in number, aren't going to have much truck with Burnham's sort of continuity Brussels approach.But the other side of that coin is there isn't that much migration into that area.There aren't any asylum hotels.Therefore, the voters aren't minded to go fully fledged reform because they're not really fighting over multicultural problems there.

Yes.Burnham, I think would just run a campaign that says send a local lad to Westminster.I think it'll be as simple as that.And that'll be very compelling, because what you're describing is a very old fashioned Labour seat.and one that in a way is probably crying out for old fashioned Labour politics.Not necessarily the hard economics or open borders, I just mean a politics of the heart which appeals to working class solidarity.

So I suspect that that works to his advantage.

But what if reform put up a candidate that is also a local boy or girl?It's just been interesting, hasn't it, that former Greater Manchester policewoman and the woman who blew the whistle on the rape gang scandal, Maggie Oliver.her name is slightly in the frame for reform.We don't know anything more than that.But it would take that kind of candidate, wouldn't it?I think reform have got to think very, very carefully about who they select.

Well, Camilla, reform should select their previous parliamentary candidate, who's called Robert Kenyon.He is a plumber.He served in the British Army, he worked in the NHS for six years, and he won a seat for Wigan last week.The question is, will they be tempted, as they did in Gorton and Denton, to parachute in a celebrity like Matt Goodwin?And I don't feel that worked well for Gorton and Denton.Also, had Burnham run in Gorton, some polling suggests that it at least would have been much closer.

And we shouldn't dismiss how popular he is within that region.This is a key difference between Burnham and Streeting.Burnham has a core demographic, Streeting doesn't really.

Yeah, I mean, look at this, Burnham won 66 % of the vote in Wigan, which Makefield falls under when he was elected Manchester Mayor.So in that part of the world, he has got a huge amount of personal popularity.

And if Labour does stick with this fantasy that this is just about bringing a talented person back into the team, then I do wonder if some senior Labour figures will be tempted to go up to Makerfield and associate themselves with Andy Byrne.Yes.If nothing else, he will be the future leader.And there are shades here.The first thing that came to my mind was the Chesterfield by -election of 1984.Neil Kinnock had just become leader of the Labour Party in opposition.

Tony Benn had lost his seat in Bristol in 1983 and in 84, Ben got the nomination for Chesterfield and Kinnock knew that if Ben came back into Parliament, Ben would challenge him for the leadership.Nonetheless, Kinnock dutifully turnedup at the by -election and campaigned for him, and they all pretended this is about bringing the talent back and this sort of thing.And lo and behold, what happened in 1988?Tony Benn challenged Neil Kinnock for the leadership.He totally lost.

Nonetheless, I just think we're going to see some interesting pretense of we all love Andy in the next few weeks, because people are going to want some of that magic to rub off on them.

OK, so let's go through the scenarios of what is happening behind the scenes, Tim, because obviously we've got key players, including, as already mentioned, Wes Streeting.Angela Rayner and increasingly Ed Miliband in the background.So let's just look at the scenario that Burnham wins this by -election.If he wins the by -election, he is then crowned, we think, the next Labour leader and Prime Minister.Well, probably.

No, just to take a step back, think about the timetable here.This by -election is expected to take place at its quickest in June.

June the 18th, they're saying, perhaps.

Okay.And then he enters Parliament.Things don't happen automatically.You're probably looking for a contest that stretches into the autumn.

And the unions, by the way, they want this contest at conference.

Yeah, exactly.

But the politicians are resisting that.And the politicians want it done and dusted.And I think in Camp Burnham, especially if Ed Miliband is associated with his bid, as we think.So actually, it now emerges, according to my sources this morning, that Miliband has been doing a lot more maneuvering behind the scenes than anyone had given him credit for.He's there on Wednesday at that debate, sort of like standing at the back with his leg up on the whatever, right, kind of looking like the old grey hair of the scene.My understanding is, is that he is desperate to be the next Chancellor, is aligning himself with Burnham, but I don't know whether that helps Burnham when it comes to the unions.

We cannot underestimatethe influence of the unions when it comes to this membership vote.They can swing votes.And while they may have some truck with Burnham, they have none with Miliband, because Miliband is saying no more drilling in the North Sea.on side with their reindustrialisation plans, which require, by the way, a shed load of energy, possibly fuelled by fossil fuels, and therefore they don't like Miliband at all.So Burnham's got to think about his own running mate really carefully, hasn't he?

He does, yes.I think the reason why I raised the timetable is because the political journalists are inevitably it's our job going to get lost in the thrilling weeds of who's against who and who's on whose side.But for me, the big story is that for possibly three months, Britain won't know who its Prime Minister is.That's right.And already the markets are punishing us for that.Britain has borrowed a lot of money.

we cannot afford the cost of borrowing to go much higher.This is Rachel Reeves' argument, warning that a leadership contest would be bad for us economically.

Yes, let's listen to her saying that this week.

Today's numbers show that the economy is growing strongly.And because of that growth, we'll be able to do more to invest in our public services and to support families and businesses with the cost of living.But that is only possible because of the economic stability that we have brought back to our economy.And we shouldn't put that at risk by plunging the country into chaos at a time when there is conflict in the world, but also at a time when our plan to grow the economy is starting to bear fruit.

And Rachel has a point.I'm not saying Keir Starmer is going to win this thing, but Catherine West, the Labour MP who began the leadership crisis by saying she would run against Keir Starmer if no one in the cabinet brought him down, in a raceinterview said, Keir Starmer is actually a very nice man, well respected on the global stage, and could win a contest.

Yeah.

And when the interviewer tried to pin her down on who she would vote for, she wouldn't rule out voting for him.No, she wouldn't really be specific about who's running, because she just kept saying, we don't know who the candidates are going to be.And what number 10 is saying, and okay, like Mandy Rice Davis, they would say this, wouldn't they?But what they're saying is, There isn't a leadership challenge.And right now, as of today, there isn't actually, because we're streeting.Number 10 says only had around 44 votes, in which case, Why are we talking about Burnham?

Why are we discussing who's going to win a by -election?I mean, technically, there's no race against the Prime Minister.But of course, we know there is.Yes.And streeting.We've now got three months in which it's not even a question of open chaos and open war.

It's just that government will be paralysed while MPs jockey for position with the next leadership.But we and the rest of the world, and crucially the bond markets, don't know who the actual Prime Minister is going to be by the end of this year.

Precisely.And by the way, I think the suggestion internally is that Streeting is playing both Burnham and Rainer.You spoke about it yesterday, you know, he spoke very warmly about Angela Rayner after she was suspended over the tax thing, but equally he wants to be in with Camp Burnham.I'm now increasingly thinking that Streeting doesn't see himself as a future leader, but the sidekick to a future leader.Just on some of the internal, so the continuity starmer people who are like the PLP have lost their heads, they've gone completely mad.This is some of the stuff I've been getting this morning.

Ed has brought all this about, Miliband.He is, quote, viciously factional.OK, fine.He's been pushing for a change in paving the way for Burnham.OK, fine.we probably knew that.

Wes didn't have the numbers and is now trying to reposition when Burnham arrives.Okay, that makes sense.Ed's clearly done some kind of deal with Burnham.Okay, that also makes sense.But listen to this, you know, those people who are on the right of the party, are desperately worried about the prospect of what the markets are going to do if it's a Burnham -Milliband mashup, saying literally this could be catastrophic.And I'm not quoting Alastair Heath here.

I'm quoting people embedded in the Labour Party, saying that you can already see with the gilt yields going up that the markets are trying to adjust to this, what they perceive to be a very black future of yet more socialism.We don't, by the way, Tim, I love all this change.We don't have any money.

Yeah.We don't have any change.

We don't have any pocket change.

I love this whole...No change, no cash, no checks, nothing.

Nothing.So this whole 0 .6 % growth rate announcement that we've had this week, and everyone's going, oh, hooray.Hello, guys.The clue is in the figure beginning with a zero.And actually, if Burnham brings in yet more socialism, How does he think that's going to go?We've got the Rich List coming out this week.

Listened on the radio to the bloke that writes it for the Sunday Times.One in six of the millionaires and billionaires that featured in the Rich List last year have gone.they've left the country.So there are people within the Labour Party right now, absolutely tearing their hair out saying this is so childish.I quite like this quote as well.Let me just find it because I think it kind of sums up what we used to report on with the Tories and it's now come to Labour.

We have a PLP full of people with the worst case of main character syndrome in political history.Just look at the number of no -mark Labour MPs issuing pompous statements about the PM and portentously issued on X. They're a perpetual embarrassment.You can have sympathy with that, can't you?

When they refer to factionalism, I'm not sure what these factions represent.So I've noticed that I don't believe any of the candidates has yet used the S word.Has anyone said they want socialism?

Burnham's leaned into it, hasn't it?

No, he's leaned, he's leaned.Burnham is about devolution and more public ownership.Well, that's gone well.I don't believe he's actually said, I want to build a different country, a socialist country with radical, irreversible redistribution of wealth and power.I'm not saying I want that.I'm just saying it says something about the Labour Party, that it's tearing itself apart over what?

Well, over the prospect of Burnham and Miliband being more left wing than Reeves and Starmer.

But they are left wing, but clearly they are left wing purely by degree.I mentioned Tony Benn earlier.Yes.When Labour tore itself apart during its long winter of opposition in the 1970s and 80s, they were arguing over unilateral disarmament of nuclear weapons.They were arguing about withdrawal from the common market.They were arguing about controls on prices and incomes.

They were arguing about nationalization of the commanding heights of the economy.Andy Burnham is just about building more trams.

No, but they're both tax and spend.They're tax and spend your way to growth, which as Kemi Bate not pointed out this week is like binge drinking your way to sobriety.It's complete and utter nonsense.And also there's no like this whole Andy Burnham's the greatest mayor that has ever run anything is frankly for the birds.He's calling for more devolution a week after The Labour Party has been destroyed in Scotland and Wales.Where's devolution got us in Scotland?

It's almost broken up the union.Where's devolution got us in Wales?The Labour -run Welsh government has bankrupted that party.small nation, it's plunged the NHS into crisis, and it's absolutely destroyed educational standards.Look at Wales's GDP, it's a disaster.So this whole Manchesterism, you know, and the other thing he'll encounter, and this is why he has always been at odds actually with the number 10, he tried to do this thing that many thought was a good idea, you know, T -levels, have an education system in Manchester that is uh in complete lockstep with local businesses so that you can actually get teenagers out of school and into work more apprenticeships more localism and of course Back down in Westminster, Bridget Philipson as Education Secretary has blocked that because she's come up with an education agenda, which is command and control.

People can't academize.People can't be autonomous.You've got to do it our way or the highway.And that has really annoyed Burnham over the course of recent years.So, yeah, I suppose he could mount that kind of revolution.But I'm not sure people on the doorstep are calling out for more devolution right now.

No, I'm not sure they are.I just think there's a poverty of imagination on the left.There's no utopianism.There's no, no one is promising to build a new Jerusalem.And I find that ironic, because this is supposedly about a lack of vision in Keir Starmer.But I don't see there is a social vision in say, Angela Rayner, it's just it's just all about I'm a working I'm a working person.

It's all biography.It's nothing more than that.Now, why are the markets nervous about Andy Burnham?Because he said we need to be less dependent upon the financial sector.And everyone kind of lost their nut about that.And I've no idea really why.

Because that was the argument of Brexit and leveling up.It was that we need to be more than a services economy, we need to be a manufacturing economy, so that we're not so dependent upon the ups and downs of the financial sector.I mean, it's a bit like the security argument.with renewables and Ed Miliband.All Ed Miliband's saying is, it's a patriotic argument, actually.We need to have more green energy so that we're not dependent upon the fluctuating price of oil.

But the fact that everyone since Burnham said that, every time he speaks, there's some huge fluctuation in the market, just shows me that the extent to which labor actually cannot break free of Thatcherism, cannot break free of how in control it is by the city.And I don't see any of the candidates really offering me something concrete that says they're going to stop that.I don't see what there.This all comes down to for me personally, there is nothing that any of these people offers that is visionary enough to make it worth three or four months of chaos.for replacing Keir Starmer.Maybe Burnham will lay out a vision in the next few weeks which is utterly compelling and everyone will love and it'll be jammed tomorrow.

Maybe.But until then, why are we putting the country through this for Andy Burnham?

No, I know.The actual comment he made was that the UK government should not be subservient to, quote, unelected financiers and bond investors.Correct.Who doesn't disagree with that?Well, it's because it parrots the sort of idealism of Polanski over the realism of Thatcher.That's why it's a problem.

He's also saying that he's quite happy to borrow ever greater sums.He says he wants to potentially borrow up to 40 billion quid.OK, where's the money coming from?Yeah, the guilt yields are already at an all time high.Borrowing in this country has reached a 28 year high.

Yeah, the irony is that it will cost more to do what he wants to do because of his leadership.

Yeah, but I go back to my original sorry, but unashamedly right wing stroke capitalist position is that you do not promote growth with tax and spend and borrowing.You just don't.So I think he's justput in that kind of magic money tree category.Okay, he's not Jeremy Corbyn, but he's not Tony Blair.And by the way, people are worried that he ideologically blows in the wind and doesn't have much grounding at all beyond his own celebrity.

And I think that's problematic, but let's see how it plays out.By the way, our little friend, our little friend James Murray from our debate, who was Chief Secretary to the Treasury is now...

Our little friend.He is our substantial statesman friend.

Well, okay.I'm not sure if I'd go that far.But anyway, he's inherited Wes's brilliant waiting lists.Wes doesn't like to point out that people waiting for 12 hours or more on trolleys has actually doubled under Labour.But you can do a great deal of massaging of the figures if you're Health Secretary, funny enough.What does he do now, by the way, Wes?

He sits on the back benches, does a few interviews.Go on.

Streeting in a few years time will be running the BBC.That's what happens to all ex -Blairite leadership dissidents, they end up running the BBC.Some people have suggested that maybe Angela Rayner knew there was a vacancy coming up as Secretary of State for Health, because why else did she give up vaping?

Soon it's going to be banned outdoors.

And I like to think that now that James Murray's got the job, She'll be back on the vape.

By the way, on Angela Rayner, I get this whole, I've been exonerated, but there's more to this whole story that meets the eye and I bet your bottom dollar and mine, that there'll be more investigations into her financial affairs.I just think that's one to watch.We've done a piece saying, what you're claiming HMRC have said isn't quite what they've said.And our story's been completely vindicated with the fact that she's had to pay that £40 ,000 stamp duty bill.

Oh, we were right.We were right.Again, this is an example of people claiming a right wing womanhunt.They're confusing the right -wing witch hunt with reportage.

To be fair, reform have been falling into this trap over the Christopher Harbourn donation.These are smears.No, he's given Nigel Farage 5 million quid.There's an argument he should have declared it as soon as he stood for Clacton.He hasn't and therefore we will report on that.There is now a standards investigation.

What is this propensity for politicians to cry smear, where journalists just cry fact?Could we have the truth?

It's ridiculous.We were told the money was for Nigel Farage's security.And now a portion of it seems to have gone on a house.Now, unless that house contains a panic room plated with solid gold.

Yeah.Well, if you're going to ask questions about the real purpose of that money, just imagine what would be in Farage's panic room, set of Union flags, 200 Benson and hedges, a bottle of Courvoisier.

Yeah.

And some St. George's flag socks.

And it's gonna have the Italian job and the longest the longest day on DVD.

Yeah, exactly.

Churchill speeches.

Quite.Maybe a little bit of Benjamin Britten playing in the background, maybe Jerusalem printed out.Shall we just very quickly talk about Zak Polanski's latest fib?So he claimed he voted in the local elections in, I believe, Hackney, because by the way, he's not living on that houseboat.He's sharing a two million pound property with four other people.I made the point on X, is this guy still at uni?

And then somebody said, you just don't understand how difficult it is to rent in London.

It was like, dude, I was in your 40s.

No, I was renting in London while I earned 10 grand on the Hemel Hempstead Gazette.Yeah, I was living in West Hampstead.It was actually Kilburn.And I know exactly what it's like to rent in London.on a low income, thank you very much.But yeah, what is Zak Polanski doing living with roomies at 40 plus?

It has also emerged that he was not paying the council tax that he should have paid.And here he is campaigning for government and he's not even voting in local elections.Some have pointed out that like a true radical, he clearly believes in no representation without taxation.I don't think it's very good.But I think the picture we're beginning to get here is not of a clinical fraud, but a deadbeat.Yeah.

Zach Muskie is a deadbeat, doesn't pay his taxes, lived on a houseboat, doesn't vote, flat -sharing in his 40s, former hypnotist, And worst of all, campaigned for the Lib Dems.

Yeah.

And full survivor's CV.Just imagine if your 18 year old daughter brought Zak Polanski home.

Or your 18 year old son might be more appropriate.

Or your 18 year old son.

No, you'd be sitting there.

You'd be sitting away with a shotgun, right?Yes, yeah, you would.This is, not only is this someone not qualified to be Prime Minister, he's not qualified to date your daughter.

No, that's right.Or son.

Or son.

I'm just being sexually inclusive here.

And there's nothing wrong with that, but not Zak Polanski.

No, that's right.He is, I think, fast emerging to be a bit of a loser.

But anyway, you know, people might still vote for him.He's doing very well.

Well, there is no...Do you know what?I think Britain is so topsy -turvy right now for all of the reasons we have just mentioned.And your central point about, are we actually being governed?is anything actually being done.This has become a farce, you know, we've just had the King's speech and we're going to now be spending the next few weeks obviously

you and I with a great deal of glee as we report all of these events on the podcast.But you know, just because it's good for copy, just because it's good for journalism.It's terrible for the country this, of course, not in the national interest.

And I watched BBC Question Time on Thursday night, and we've both done that show.And you know that there's always there is always easy claps to be had, if we're being honest.

Yeah.

The audience was almost silent.

Yes.

And there was a vibe you could tell in that studio of what the hell are you doing?

Yeah.

And people just being flabbergasted that having given Labour that majority, they are repeating everything that happened to Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.And I will give Liz Truss credit.At least her leadership crisis was quick.

Yeah.

We, instead, are being told to knuckle down for three months of this nonsense.

Yeah, while Starmer bleeds out.

By the way...Who knows what can happen in a summer?Summer in Britain is a time for rioting.So, things can only get worse.

I know, a summer of discontent.And a final thought.Reform beats Andy Burnham in the by -election, wins the Manchester mayoralty, his political career is then over.I don't know what he then does, goes and hooks up with the Gallagher brothers and writes a few songs.And lives on a houseboat with Zak Polanski.Possibly.

Then Starmer clings on.Or does he then face another leadership challenge by what Wes Streeting wants, which is like this wide array of candidates?And at that point, you then get maybe Bridget Philipson putting a hat in the ring as the unity candidate.You get Al Cairns putting his hat in the ring as the unknown Sunset, Sunrise Man.Like, is Starmer safe if Burnham is destroyed?

It's just occurred to me, Alcanz is literally the unknown soldier.

Yes.

Because he's a veteran and I've never heard of him.

That's right.If Burnham doesn't win, does Starmer win?Final question.

Not necessarily.And that's our tragedy, isn't it?Because blood has been drawn.We literally know that a quarter of the Parliamentary Labour Party does not believe Keir Starmer should be Prime Minister.

Yeah.

Where do you go from that?It's very difficult to recover your authority unless there is superb economic news in the middle of the year, unless you make real progress on the boats.Britain hosting the G20 Don't know, one of the Gs, whatever.Britain hosting one of the Gs, that could be a big moment for him.But it feels as though he is the walking wounded.

But if he's hosting one of the Gs, while this by -election is taking place, and the dates do match up, and Burnham wins while he's got his arms around European leaders going, yeah, I'm leading a coalition of the willing.Not within his own party, is it?He's going to look so embarrassed on the world stage.

The one thing that could play to Keir Starmer's favour is if we win Eurovision this weekend.By the way, the biggest joke of all would be reform wins make a field.And Israel wins Eurovision.

Do you know what?I have been boycotting Eurovision for years because I would literally rather take a Black and Drekker drill to my ears than sit through this abject nonsense.I know everyone thinks I'm a fun sponge.I absolutely hate it.

But Israel's song is actually quite good this year.Just imagine if that would mean that in 2027 it would be boycotted by all but Britain and Malta.We might stand a chance.

Now people like Zara Sultana have urged me to boycott Eurovision.because of the Israelis.I've now decided to watch it and I shall be backing Israel every step of the way.

We'll be back on Sunday at 8 .30am when we are joined by Andrew Lowney, the biographer of the Yorks, and he's going to tell us some outrageous things about Sarah Ferguson and P. Diddy.

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