Strait of Hormuz deal could leave US vessels shut out | Sean Bell analysis

It's been reported from Iran this evening that a deal between them and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could ban the United States, Israeli, and other so -called hostile vessels from the Strait.The two nations have been in talks over the use of the waterway in recent weeks, and Tehran insists that the US has no involvement in the talks, which appears to contradict President Donald Trump.Let's bring in our military analyst, Sean Bell, who's with me in the studio.Look, we've had a few days of a bit of a tumult yet another fragile ceasefire, Sean.You never know how long these things are going to last.But what are the prospects for these current talks of at least in part reopening the strait?

Well, Matt, good evening.We're almost in uncharted waters here, because it was America that went to war.They've been effectively threatening Iran with retaliation if they don't agree to talks.And suddenly, day 160 of this four - to six -week war, suddenly we find that actually, despite Trump's initial threats, then a bit of a fragile ceasefire, that actually it looks like the prospects that two sides.Now, why is it Oman and Iran, both sides of the Strait of Hormuz, Oman to the southern side?And now, what we understand is that the agreement between them has been that Tehran will look after traffic that's coming into the Strait of Hormuz, which will be the northern route.

And on the southern route, then that will be the route by which Oman looks after the traffic going out.It's not entirely clear how they're going to manage the minefield, which it may be there's no minefield there at all.We just don't know.But I think what's fascinating about this, first First of all, all sides want to see the Strait of Hormuz open, and therefore it seems a masterstroke.The challenge, of course, is it doesn't look like a complete snub of the Americans here.It's not entirely clear what the US view of any deal was, because obviously they've said they're dead against any charges or anything like that.

And it's also, where does the status of the blockade that the US have got in place?All of this seems to have happened completely independently of the US, and it leaves all sorts of questions unanswered.

The main one being, Sean, where does this leave that?by the conflict whichkeeps flaring up and progress with curtailing Tehran's nuclear ambitions?was at the root cause of a lot of this in the first place for the Americans?

Yeah, I mean, absolutely right.For me, they remember their MOU that was signed on the 17th of June, you know, 14 -point plan.OK, part of it is straight out four moves, but the meat of it was this business about nuclear.I think the trouble is we got closer and closer to the midterm elections.We play them down a bit, but it's really important for the US.We're less than 90 days now from the midterms.

Over 60 % of the American population is an unpopular war.Inflation's rife, gas prices are high.So actually, in a way, any deal that gets a straight -up form moves to be up.The challenge, of course, where does that leave the nuclear negotiations, though?Because if Trump starts to negotiate with Iran and goes back to suddenly threatening them...They'll just close the Strait of Hormuz.

We'll be back to square one again.So actually, what's happening here, Iran has played a masterstroke in as much that they've now got a huge amount of leverage.They'll be using unfreezing assets, getting rid of sanctions, all of these things that will be at play.It feels very likely that Donald Trump will just breathe a sigh of relief, get through the midterms, play all of the conversation about nuclear long, and potentially see a return to violence after the midterm elections.But my goodness, it's been a really weird few days to see this as the outcome.

with America, not even involved in the conversation.Well, that's the question.Has there been any reaction from them?Yes.And if not, you would expect it fairly soon from Trump, wouldn't you?

You would.And I wouldn't be at all surprised.And the danger is we're trying to get inside President Trump's head.I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's really frustrated and even angry about this.But his advisers will be going, hang on a minute, regardless of how we get there...Take the opportunity.

Take the opportunity and actually claim some credit for how it happens.Get the straits open, get oil prices down and then move on in the fullness of time.At least you start to get your fingers out of this mangle, which is incredibly dangerous at the moment for Trump.

Which, despite...US and Israeli superiority when it comes to firing missiles, it ends up looking a bit like a win for Iran, doesn't it?

I think the history books will be written with this, how the global superpower brought all its military might to bear against Iran, which frankly was a second to third rate nation when it came militarily.Absolutely militarily dominated, but actually failed to learn the lessons from history, failed to listen to the war gaming, which said this was the inevitable outcome.And now Iran will emerge.They started off as a prior state, before this war, they're now going to emerge as a regional power, potentially with the control of the Strait of Hormuz, and significant leverage against the rest of the world.Who could have predicted that when the war was started by President Trump?