'Surprise attack' by Iran | Sean Bell analysis

Now then, the US military says it's intercepted multiple ballistic missiles from Iran, launched at American forces based in the Middle East, ending a recent pause in fighting.Hours earlier, US Central Command said it had worked with Saudi Arabia to strike sites in Iraq used by Tehran -backed militia to launch attacks in recent days.It's a complex picture.Let's get the details with our military analyst, Sean Bell.And it's a complex picture and gets ever more complex.What's happening?

Yeah, Gareth, it's been a busy night.I mean, trying to distill out exactly what happened and when is a little bit tricky.but it starts with three oil tankers were intercepted again in the Strait of Hormuz following a particular pattern.The US, therefore, have been striking back.Those tankers, it looked like they were on the southern route, which is the one that's been opened up by America in defiance of the Iranians.The US, therefore, struck a series of targets in Iran, basically trying to degrade their ability to attack commercial shipping, and that's prompted the Iranians to do a whole series of attacks, this time into Jordan, primarily, although Central Command claimed that all of the missiles last night.

the last three days.That's prompted the US Central Command to say that multiple strikes against Iraq -based Iranian militia.The Iraqis claim over 20 people were killed and over 32 were injured.It's been a busy night and it's expanding geographically.After a couple of days of more relative calm.Why is this happening now?

Well, it is interesting that, John, the sequencing of what actually happened last night, because the headline that caught my eye this morning was America saying surprise attacks by Iran, implying that...proactively attacked America.What appears to happen at the core of all this is control of the Strait of Hormuz.You'll remember there was Clause 5 of the Memorandum of Understanding, and it's all about the US actually trying to force open a southern route in defiance of the Iranians.Now, President Trump must be increasingly frustrated that US military dominance has failed to actually lead to the subjugation of Iran.they're capitulating in surrender.

We've been talking yesterday, there was 13 nights of continuous day and night strikes by America stopped on Saturday.We were in this sort of uneasy truce.And it felt like President Trump had said, well, have they had enough pain yet?Let's see, and let's actually start pushing these ships through the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz again.Well, it looks like the Iranians were faced with no choice but to actually warn them, and we start that cycle again.I think the thing is here is that Trump is clearly hoping that the Iranians will break first.

Now, Iranian people are suffering dreadfully from all of this, but the Iranian leadership are not.They are set there.They see a once -in -a -generation opportunity to recover.They see a much more rosy future.They could be a regional powerhouse.All they have to do is outlast America.

They're involved in a sort of marathon.If they can outlast America, then there's strategic success for Iran that's the jewel at the end of this journey.

It's the difference between four -year terms and a multi -decade -long presence in politics, isn't it, and the challenges that poses for both sides.Which then leads me to the final question.We said it was complex and getting more complex.And you have these different tenures When it comes to power, both sides say they want peace.With all of this happening, peace kind of feels like a folly of a word to use.But where is that process?

Yeah, I mean, even Trump had sort of believed that they were giving a window of chance for talks.The trouble is, talks will only benefit if both sides see some sort of mutual benefit in a conclusion.It doesn't feel like these two leaders, Mujtaba Khomeini or the President Trump are actually on the same page at all.Oman has actually put some proposals for opening the Strait of Hormuz.That seems to be the thorn at the moment.It wasn't an issue before the start of the war, was it?

It was all about nuclear, and yet all we're talking about is the Strait of Hormuz.Whether Iran accepts those proposals or not, it's neither here nor there, because Iran is actually playing the long game here.It's clearly not been defeated.And going back to your point, I think, about the durations, you know, when President Trump launched this war, he said it was going to be a four - to six -week war, and, actually, the midterm elections, which is a clear focus for him, were in the dim, distant future.

November.

We're now, I think it's day 152 of the war, and it's only 100 days to those midterms.We're well over halfway towards those midterms.For many politicians, they'll be looming much closer.President Trump's polling is dropping at the moment, not doing well, and he desperately needs an off -ramp to all of this.The current US military -based strategy evidently isn't working.In fact, it's making a bad situation even worse.

And undoubtedly, some of the Republican Party and President Trump will be going, this is not the legacy that we thought we were going to end up with when we took this war on at the end of February.