The Morning Show: Implication of Obi And Kwankwaso's Move To NDC

let's take a look at news stories making headlines around the globe.First off, in a major blow to opposition, Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwakwonsu have formally declared for Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC.Their declaration followed a marathon closed -door meeting with the leadership of the party of the Abuja residents, or other Abuja residents, of former Bayeusa state governor and NDC national leader Seriake Dixon.Reacting to Obi's exits from the ADC, the presidency described him as a political nomad, prone to opportunistic shifts.At the same time, All Progressives Congress, APC, criticized Obi, describing him as a political rolling stone, moving across political parties in search of an uncontested presidential ticket.Addressing party faithfuls and supporters shortly after their formal declaration, Kwaku also said their decision to join NDC was driven by shared ideological alignment and a collective resolve to reposition Nigeria.

you are bringing on board.The Nigerian people know.And on behalf of the teaming members of Apartheid, well -meaning Nigerians from all over our country, who in the last five months have defied all odds and doubts, conquered all doubts, and invested their trust and confidence in the dream and On behalf of all of them, I thank you all and I welcome you all specially.To the NDC and to my humble home.I want to on behalf of all of us in the NDC family, one of the youngest political families in Nigeria, but a family that no doubt is prepared to box above its weight.I welcome you to Nigeria's fastest -developing, fastest -growing party.

I welcome you all to Nigeria's most stable political party.I welcome your faction, your nation whatsoever, who should not know what is called status quo anti -ballooning.

My team, to present His Excellency, the leader of this party.on our ideology, our blueprint, and all what we believe in, especially my humble son and his excellency.And we realize we are all on the same page, living in education, living in empowerment of young men and women.United Nigeria.

Let there be no litigation.Party members, please don't go to court.We are not lawyers.Those of us who are lawyers wanted to be good practitioners.What we want is a party that will love us, will be more than welcome.This will work well for this party.

Women and children will be proud of this party.This party will form a government that will rescue Nigeria.Nigerians can live in Nigeria without living in fear.As soon as I left money for school, I will not return.

Joining us on the show to discuss the implication of Obie and Kwakwonso's move to the NDC, what it means for 2027, is Arise, director of news and politics editor, Somna Sambo.Good morning, Somna.Good morning.Usually we'll see you later in the show on a Monday for political brief, but it's an important morning.And so I'm delighted to have you join us here in the Lagos studios.Perhaps you'd like to start with your analysis and then we'll come in as well.

Yeah, I mean, these are very interesting times for Nigerians and then, of course, politicians alone.We've seen a situation whereby it's pretty difficult for those in the opposition to be able to unite together.And this will just take us back to what happened in 2023, where we had, you know, divided votes by the opposition.And I mean, a whole lot of Nigerians were actuallybe pained because there have been efforts to actually bring all these people together.And for the first time, it looked like they were making some progress when the likes of Salehu Lukman, the former APC National Vice Chairman for the Northwest, who had defected to the ADC, you know, started from 2024, galvanizing all these people, trying to bring them together and see how, you know, they could present a united front.

If you take a critical look at the figures from 2023, you will discover that by the time you add Obie's vote, you add Conconso's vote, and of course Attico's vote, it was a clear win for the opposition.But President Trudeau will actually be laughing.Right now, because I mean, they've actually played into his hands.But look at the realities that have led to this.And then let's take a look at how it's going to be in 2027.What are the existing realities for B2 have taken this decision?

The fact that we have an INEC timetable that they will have to catch up with.And then the fact that the ADC has a whole lot of problems.The state chairman had taken the ADC, you know, current leadership under David Mark to court, and they have an existing judgment.But the good thing about that is that they have some time to be able to stay till they exhaust their tenure.And then that's why the ADC will then go ahead and issue a statement saying that the newly elected state chairman that were, you know, that emerged as a result of that Congress will not be sworn in.until after May 12.

And then you take a look at some of the issues that we still have.The Supreme Court judgment was very clear in stating that they should go back to the federal high court.And a whole lot of people have been questioning why David Marks' leadership has not provided the sort of political leadership that was needed at the time.Getting good legal briefs and then going ahead to tackle the issues as they are.So there are a lot of issues.this issue of Nafi Ubala to just be pushed aside for too long.

And when the cases were brought in court, come around and face the issues, they said no.They were more interested in the issue of the interlocutory injunction that was being sought, which eventually led to the Court of Appeal and then the Supreme Court.But just before we come back to the issues, Nigerians should be outraged at why the Court of Appeal had to give a prayer that no one asked for.And I'm thinking that the National Judicial Council should be taking an interest in what really happened, that the Court of Appeal will go ahead and grant a prayer that nobody asked of this statistical antebellum, which led us to where we are.And then Take a look at all the reliefs that were sought.There were about seven of them.

The Supreme Court only granted one.But then I spoke with a whole lot of leaders in the ADC, and they told me that the other six were just actual decoys.And then the idea was to actually set that aside.But if they had followed up those cases critically from the beginning, maybe the High Court would have even, you know, done away with this issue.It was just a case whereby you're supposed to come around and say whether this case should be heard or not, but then you go on appeal and so on.So, in a nutshell, the ADC has itself to blame.

And then you come to the other reality, Obi, Kwankwanso and Atiku in the same political family.What will be the outcome?The most experienced politician will always have his way.And the most experienced politician in this instance seems to be Atiku Abubakar.But if you go back to the APC primaries in 2014, you will see that Kwon Kwan So came second when Buhari came first.And then, of course, all others followed.

Atiku came second.and all of that.But in terms of galvanizing ADC, you will see that the person who has been very consistent in mobilizing people, mobilizing a whole lot of Nigerians to register in the ADC, is more of Atiku Abubakar, providing even the space for the party to fully take off after it had been taken over.Now, if you were Peter Obi, you would do an intelligence analysis.And the intelligence analysis will show you how many members have been registered in the ADC during the registration process.And that intelligence analysis will reveal to you that there are more lower numbers of people who actually registered to be members of the ADC in the Southeast.

And if that's the case, if you are to go into primaries and you're conversing consensus, and it doesn't seem like that consensus is going to come towards you, then you look at the possibility of holding a direct primaries.Then, of course, you use that intelligence information that you have to juxtapose it with the existing realities.And the realities will show you that even if Atiku Abubakar's vote, I mean, the registered number of ADC in Adamawa State alone are more than the entire registered number of ADC members in the Southeast.And then you bring other northern states together.Of course, you will know clearly that if you go through direct primaries, you won't win.So what's the easiest way out?

It's for you to latch on the Supreme Court judgment and say, because the course is not clear, you would need to go to another party.And that's what Obie has just done, skillfully living.But let's take a look at Obie's political career.Obie has not been someone who has faced a national, a major national political primary before.The first time I was supposed to do that majorly was in 2022.And of course, the likes of Lula

Chukwemeka Ezeife, former governor of Anambra state and some other elder statesmen talked him out.Because on the day that Atiku launched his presidential bid in 2022, I was there and I saw the bid.In fact, I was the first person who interviewed him.And I was like, people have been calling on you from the South East to come and contest.How come you're here?He said he's here to honour his senior brother and all of that.

But then when he saw that the political realities did not favour him then, and then it would be difficult for him to win a party primary in the PDVP where you had the likes of Nissan, Wiki, pulling strong from all the Southern aspirants.Of course, he took the easy way out.And then when he went to the Labour Party, of course, there were other contestants who were already there.People like Patitomi and all of that.But then he got an easy way out and he got the ticket.So taking a look at from 2001 to 2002, when he was in the PDP.

He eventually left and joined APGA, latching on the wings of late Chief Chukwuemeka Adumegu Ojukwu, and eventually he would then go ahead, get the ticket.But of course, what happened in 2003 happened and the courts brought him.And of course, as a governor, you have a first right of refusal.So he didn't face any major primary then.Then going ahead to 2022, no major primary.And then becoming Labour Party candidate, no major primary.

primary.And then this is the first time that we're supposed to, you know, interrogate the political credentials of Peter Obi as a national political figure in the United States.African Democratic Congress.But unfortunately, with these existing realities, you've seen him going away.So, there's always been this talk, and you will see that the Governing All Progressive Congress are taking advantage to say that Ptolemy is a migrant politician.He's always afraid of standing to fight for ticket.

But what does fighting for ticket actually mean?It does a whole lot of good for you.Even if you come second, like Kwon Kwon Soe.second in 2014, it gives you the capacity to be able to measure your political goodwill among voters and then watch the temperament ahead of the next election.Now, we cannot fully measure Peter Obi's political credentials going into ADC at the moment because of that challenge.But going into 2027, which is the major reason why we're having this discourse, Obi's move is going to cause a whole lot of uproar, including eating into some gains that President Ntunubu had made, for example, in the Southeast.

Because the thinking had been within the Ntunubu political camp that the Atiku OB ticket may likely still fly.And if it does, they'll be able to curtail the votes that will come out from the Southeast.But in this instance now, the Southeast, though President Ntunubu has made some effort through the governors and all of that, the votes of the APC will be eaten too.again because we'll be on the ticket and this time around Kwong Kwan So too in Kano is going to make a headway in the sense that they will eat into some of the votes that APC is going to get there because of the core followership he enjoys and all of that and you take a look at this South -South too The national leader of the NDC, Senator Seriaki Dixon, is a figure you can't push away in South -South politics, especially Bayelsa.So watch out for Bayelsa and Delta, and including a little part of Undo, where you have a whole lot of Ijos and all of that, because he enjoys a whole lot of support from them.And then you will see that Peter Obi's entry into this party with these leaders, would actually create a sort of storm.

And then look at Atiku's hometown, Atiku's home state of Adamawa.You see the likes of Binani, people like Binani who have moved out and joined the NDC.She has a whole lot of following.So it's going to be a very difficult time ahead.But forADC, it also means that Thikuwa Abubakar's strategy has to change.

And what we hear is that he's trying to team up with Rotimi Amechi so that they will have a strong play.If Amechi does come into the game, of course, the politics of rivers will change.And then you'll see that there will end some voters.And it's going to be a tough call.But 2023 is right here before us.And it's unfortunate because the strongest opposition to APC would have been a galvanized opposition.

If we can come in here, I've listened to you very carefully.Can we further break it down in terms of our own perspectives?What is clear over the weekend in terms of the development, Peter Obi and Dr. Kwankwansu going to the ADC?to the NDC is clearly that the opposition parties are in disarray following the judgment of the Supreme Court in the matter involving both the PDP and the ADC.Now, I think that Mr Peter Obi and Dr Kwankwansu have acted wisely.Wisely, however, out of fear.

Fear.emphasize that, because it is very clear that the ADC train that they joined is not going to work.It will run into troubled matters.The matter, the substantive matter, have been referred to the Federal High Court.So they don't know how that will turn out.So they've quickly ported Nigerian English to another existing platform.

So, however, What is the way forward for both candidates?Is it going to be OK, which is the alliance they've been advertising, or K .O.under the umbrella of the NDC?So that would be the big question.Now, both of them, what do they bring to the table?

I'm going to interrogate this with a number of questions.What do they bring to the table?Peter Aube has an army of obedience.He also has advantage in the Southeast, because the calculus in the Southeast may well change.We have people like Senator Dave Umayi, Senator Oju Zokalu, Governor Peter Mwifulu, Governor Peter Mbaa, and other stakeholders in the Southeast, saying the Southeast, traditional rulers also included, you know, have endorsed President Bola Ametunubu.How is this latest development going to affect that?

Because also, don't just assume that Peter Obi doesn't have some residual influence in the Southeast, particularly among persons, either in the Southeast or elsewhere, who believe that the time has come.for Ibuland to take the front lead.As for Konkwansu, yes, he brings something to the table.He has the Konkwansiya movement, which is very influential in Kano State and also in Jigawa and a little bit maybe in Kabi or elsewhere in the north.So they are almost more or less evenly matched.So what was the step forward for the NDC?

Another question is, how does this help the NDC?The NDC was registered by Governor Siriaki Dixon, Countryman Dixon, and all of a sudden, from being a special purpose vehicle, the NDC now has become the beautiful bride.So what is in it for Siriaki Dixon?Well, Countryman Dixon may well, from this, gain a lot.of political leverage, now that a lot of people are moving to the party that he founded.If you like, talk about foresight.

Now, this NDC becoming big, what have we seen over the weekend?I saw a report saying about 9 .4 million persons have already gravitated towards the NDC, almost turning it into an emerging major opposition in the face of the conflicts, the crisis with the PDP and the ADC.So where does that leave the APC?It means that a new big competition is emerging.So next question, what is the manifesto of this NDC?Nobody has articulated it before now.

We would like to know very soon, before May 30, before the submission of candidates, when we will gain better clarity, whether it will be Peter Aube leading, or it will be Kwan Kwan So leading, what the NDC stands for.What is the NDC saying, for example, about poverty in Nigeria, which is a major issue?What is the NDC saying, for example, about insecurity in Nigeria, because, okay, we're just doing all of this, but nobody is talking yet about the core issues and what happens to both the ADC and the PDP hereafter.In practical terms, you have a party that is coming, NDC, which means that on the ballot, They're going to be down, down the ballot paper.Alphabetical arrangement.So there's going to be a lot of work, you know, because, you know, our court party, APC, ADC.

they piggyback on the fact that, okay, when you look at the ballot, in an electorate situation, that is likely illiterate.So there'll have to be a lot of work in terms of recognition of this N that is down, down, the alphabetical order in the ballot paper.The ballot paper, I understand, is almost likely to be like a booklet, because we have 21 political parties.Anyway, meanwhile, what are the implications for the APC?The APC sees now that it has a very serious competition.And that's why Felix Mokas, speaking for the APC, has called Peter Ubi a rolling stone.

Now, OK, a rolling stone, you say he gathers no moss, but it is within Peter Ubi's constitutional right, it is within Dr. Kwon Kwan -Soo's constitutional right to keep rolling.freedom of association, freedom of assembly, is guaranteed under the Constitution.And Mr. Peter Obi says, well, he's not leaving because of any individual.But perhaps, maybe he has been pushed, and he's in another place.And he has his army of obedience behind him.The only caveat to that is that elections as Governor Ubasani of Kadena State pointed out, are not won on social media.

Because Governor Ubasani said, well, if it is on social media, maybe Tenobi will lose.But it is not social media that determines outcomes.We saw that also in the United States elections.So, the days ahead will be very interesting.And in the midst of all this, is the APC panicking?The APC is talking tough, but I think that they will get a better understanding of what this

emerging dynamics means.Meanwhile, President Bula Metunubu is playing what the Americans call rose garden politics.Rose garden politics means when there is turmoil, when there is chaos, you just do as if, who are these people?Nothing's happening.You go to the rose garden, you serve red wine, white wine.And that's why, you know, President Bola Ametinuwu, I just say, jetted off.

He's going to go to France.From France, he's going to Kenya, where I hope he will be able to tell President Ruto, that, well, the president of Nigeria is here.Can you fork my spoken English?And then from there, he goes to Rwanda and all of that.All of that is called rose garden politics.You can play what you want to play, but I'm in charge.

That's what he's saying.However, Our expectations should be met in 2027.And what is the expectation of we, the long -suffering people of Nigeria?One, that there should be a playing field.Two, that there should be real competition.Three, that the process must be fair and credible.

In that regard, it seems to me that Professor Joshua Mokwiton may well be saying that, you know, he's been vindicated.And he will say, Peter Obi and Kwankwansu, they had to part very quickly because of his warning that you people are risking the Zamfara situation.But they have acted wisely.But let us see how the game plays out.The other thing is about the limitation of time on all fronts.By May 30, we should know who the candidates are.

And that may well be the opening door to another level of the gaming system.Because this is games theory at play.

I have an elaborate theatrics to make.A couple of things.Number one, I think it's going to be the beginning of more troubles for the NDC because the litigations will begin.The litigations, as regards even the registration of the NDC, people that have not gone to court, they will go to court.

Well, there's already one attempt by...

To go to court, I know.So it will begin.Because you see, as Nigerians, the idea here is Obi not being on the ballot.That's the problem.So all the forces will do everything to ensure Obi doesn't get on the ballot.I do a lot of political mapping, and I know people that do political mapping.

The ADC.APC, all the political parties that have done political mapping.The only person that can give President Ndubu some push in this election is OB.The first strategy is to ensure OB doesn't get on the ballot.The crisis in the ADAC was just because of that.Secondly, the point of OB is always pivoting to other political parties.

Let us go back to what history says.Exactly what happened in PDP, why OB pivoted, that's what exactly happened in the ADC.Attiku was not willing to ensure that the Rotation Convention comes to pass.Attiku was not supposed to run in the 2020 election after he had run in the last term of the Northern part election in 2019.And that was why the likes of Wiki went up in arms.And that's why sometimes, even if I blame Wiki for not being a party man, he had some justifications in his actions.

And that was whyObie left.Obie kept on saying that if you zone it to the south, I'll fight for it.So it's not that he doesn't like to fight.In the case of the ADC, the article camp had already hijacked most of the structure in the ADC.The state chairman, we're talking about, we're already hijacked by the article camp.

Over the weekend, I walked the phone lines for my sources.I mean, we're political journalists.We walk our sources' phone line.Most of it was already a fair complaint.So there was no way Obie was going to be able to thrive or get a fair situation in this election process.That's why he left.

Yes, I know he tried to be cute about it by saying, my elder brother Tiku, it's because of the court case.Peter, Gregory, Obie, you and I know that it is not because of the court case that you left.It is because you were already boxed into a corner.You can write a statement to deny what I said.It's your prerogative.And you know you were already boxed into a corner.

And because agreements were not listened to.Part of what I heard was discussed in the Bada consensus by one of my sources, I might be wrong, was that there was a conversation about the Yiddish candy coming from the South, but people reneged against it.The article team reneged against it.These are the things I'm working the phone lines and my sources are saying.So I know the article camp will come out and debunk all the things I've said.It's for you to deny.

It's for you to debunk.I mean, mine is for me to speak my truth and you to rebut.So once that did not fall through, and the consolidation had started, Obih had to leave because Obih wanted to be on the ballot.Yes, you might make an argument and say, why is he moving all around and everything?Hemaz has an ambition.For those that argue, why is Obih moving around?

Why is Asiko still running?As at 20, from 1993 up till now.And some people are saying Atiku, this might be his last lap.This is not going to be his last lap.If Atiku is in good health, he will run in 2031.Mark that down.

He has his ambition.Yes.You know, former Liverpool coach Bill Shankly famously said, people think football is about life and death, but they are wrong.It's more than life and death.For politicians, politics is more than life and death.Atiku Abuka's ambition is to become the president of Nigeria.

As long as it's in good health, he will keep running until he'll get the ambition, the aspiration, and it's his goal.Secondly, what will this do?The first winner will be President Ntunubu.But anyway, I had always known that they were going to disintegrate because there was no way they were going to agree in the first place, because the ambition of Antigua Abaka was more palpable than stepping down, and when people kept on saying he was a statesman.President Ntunubu will make a lot of inroads, yes, also because he's also running with state might at this point in time, the power of incumbency.So it's not going to be as easy.

And this is not a Buhari that allows things wrong.So the votes Obie said he got, the votes Obie got in the last election, he might not get as much because there will be many factors.The other argument I would like to make in the Southeast, you see President Inubo, they can tell you that they will give you votes in the Southeast.I'm not sure Nigeria's politics is so mature to the level that people in the Southeast will see Obie on the ticket and see you on the ticket.and decide to vote you over OB.It would be a miracle if Nigerian politics has gotten to that level.

So, as regards the South, I've seen a lot of inroads.The South -South is quite split on all of that.But I think what will herald these elections even more, that we should becareful about are the things about the electoral laws that have made it pretty much to rig.So it's going to be an election that, correct me if I'm wrong, and I pray I'm wrong on this, there might be a lot of rigging across board.President Ndubu will retain most of his southwestern states, and it will be even split.

But with this that they've been able to do, I think they've just opened the door for a President Ndubu second term.easier than ever, which is a sad reality of things as we speak today, because they can't come together.But let me even posit it further by arguing that if they were even together in the first place, would they have been able to beat an incumbent that knows how to use power?Let's stop being delusional.I mean, Dr Abati, let me punch you this morning, President Tinubunobi Jonathan.

All right, okay, what a way to end that summation.But, okay, a few things to just consider.Of course, like you mentioned, Sumna, and I think, Dr. Bhatti, on that note, that it's going to be an interesting race to 2027.There have been a lot of permutations and calculations.I've done my own share of permutations and calculations based on the elections of 2023.And to give you the numbers, based on this new development with the NDC, and I just a little joke that I just took out the A and put an N, because the African Democratic Congress to the Nigeria Democratic Congress, so they left the continent and come back to Nigeria.

But that's on a lighter note.But on a serious note, looking at the numbers and the performance of both parties, principles.In this case, Mr Peter Obi and Kwaku Enso, let us dissect how they did in 2023 when the president was not incumbent at the time.Again, you cannot put away state power in the Nigerian political space.In the 2023 general elections, Mr Peter Obi came third and he had 6 ,101 ,533 votes.Rabbi Musa KwaKwanSo came a distant fourth and had 1 ,496 ,687 votes.

He was able to only capture Kano in terms of the state where he won.And that's, of course, because of his huge KwaKwanSea movement.On the other hand, Mr. Opitobe had Southeast.He had Abia, Enugu, Eboi, Anambra and Imu.And in the Southeast state, he had about 80 to 90 percent of the share of votes in most of these states.In the South -South, he got Edo, Delta, and Cross River.

In the North -Central, he got Plateau and Nasarawa.In Southwest, he got Lagos State, which I'm sure must be a big, you know, deal in the neck of the APC, because I'm sure till today they haven't forgiven that move.Because Lagos State, of course, was traditionally the city boy's state.This was his domain where he had had the master plan, and if there's any state no one should beat him, it should be Lagos State.And that was a big blow to the APC and the Chinook campaign.And then the FCT, as well, Abuja, and that caused a lot of—you know, you remember the court cases around, is this state—should it be recognized as a state?

Does it matter?Does it not matter?Must you get the FCT?Must you not get the FCT?And President Tinubo, through the courts, was able to establish that the FCT was not compulsory when it comes to capturing states.And so, if you look at the election of 2023, Mr. Pitoh, we did two things.

well enough to give President Ntunubu a run for his money during these elections.However, the challenge of a parting.Because according to the constitution, chapter six, part one, section 131C says, To qualify as president in Nigeria, you must be a member of a political party, and you must be sponsored by that political party.Perhaps it's time, in the interest of fairness, and since we see that one of the challenges of free, fair, credible elections in Nigeria, or a strong democracy, is internal democracy in our political parties.Maybe we should start to explore the idea of independent candidates, so that people who want to run, without having to maneuver through the intricateof politics, of money, strongholds, and things like that, can actually have a fair chance of running.

Perhaps it's time to begin to have those conversations.Then we would not have, you know, political officers, like, you know, hopefuls that would be moving from party to party.And even Atiku Abubakar, the same, Buhari did the same thing.A lot of political hopefuls did the same thing, just because they couldn't find space in parties.And let's do away with ideology.If you look at other countries where political parties matter, you know, where they have strong systems, the US, the UK, you will see that each party has an ideology.

So it's difficult to just move around because you know that this is the reason I support.In fact, in the UK, for instance, and I know that, oh, they are far away in their democracy, but need to look at people where or places where it's worked you will see that it's almost a religion it's almost a way of life it's almost a culture you are born into labor you are born into conservative and you know along the line your values might change and you might decide to change but along to that there's usually When I was in school, from university, from secondary school, you already knew, young labor, this is where you're going to.And they were very firm on ideology.We don't have that in Nigeria.There's no ideology.Political parties are simply vehicles on which politicians are able to exercise based on the constitution.

And so maybe we might have better chances of better qualities of candidates or people who can really, well, let me not say better qualities of candidates, but people who really want to get into the political arena without the stronghold of a political party that does not align at all ideology but provides a vehicle for them.That is something that we must look at in the electoral act or the constitution, you know, in order to make progress.Now, the coalition.Peter Obi and Nwabi Musa Kwakwonsu, if you add their votes together, you would have gotten 7 .598220 votes in the 2023 elections.President Tinubu won with 87948 ,794 ,726 votes.They would still have fallen short of his votes based on the 2023 elections.

elections.Atiku had 6 ,984 ,520 votes in the last election.If three of them had come together, they might have, if they were able to sustain the votes from 2023, polled 14 ,582 ,740 votes collectively.And that is almost close to double the votes that President Ndubu got in 2023.And that is why the Ibadan gathering, the Ibadan summit, was seen as a red light or a light in the tunnel for the opposition parties, if only they were able to come together to form a coalition.But already it was predicted that it would be very difficult for them to work together, because each person's ambition superseded the political strategy to come together as a whole to challenge President Bola Amed to win the elections.

And so, unfortunately, by this move, as popular as Peter Obi is, it might just be, unfortunately—I don't mean to say unfortunately, because it depends on the votes of the people—it might just be handing over the elections of 2027 to President Bola Tenebu.And these are some of the factors that work against this coalition.As popular as they are, as wide as their bases, with the obedient and the adequate concierge, it's important to remember something.The NDC is a newly registered party, registered on the 5th of February, 2026, through a court order.And Rufai, you're right.I hope there will be no more issues.

But there was a court order that established the national leaders of the party and mandated INEC to recognize them as a political party.They are still new.They are structures.Yes, they have, you know, millions of people registered.But do they have state structures to challenge what the APC currently has, especially with a lot of campaigns they've started, the City Boy movement and the likes and all that?Number three is that since the 2023 election, the Obedient Movement, we've seen some resignations.

We've seen some losing of steam in certain areas.I'm not sure the same wave that they had in 2020, and I'm being very honest, it's the same wave they have here.in 2026.He has his work cut out for him.There's a lot of mobilization to be done.The same for the KwaKwanSia movement.

Don't forget now that Kano's state, the governor, Aba Yusuf, is now in the APC.So that vote is also going to be divided, even though the red cap movement is very huge.And so if there's any chance, and the only thing we're asking for is a free playing level field for all politicians, but even most importantly, Let there be a vibrant competition where Nigerians can have the opportunity to choose, and let it not be the courts that decide, or INEC acting as a stumbling block in many areas.And so, finally, I'll just end on this point.I'll just end on this point, finally, and that is that the OB Kwakwaka 'wakw is so ticket, seems like a very viable ticket, because of their solid base.However, would the base be strong enough to challenge President Mbola Medinubu, who has enjoyed some sort of, you know, what's it called, sustainability in his party?

Not a lot of issues have happened.They've been able to sort things out politically, internally, and has also been able to use state might in certain regards.But, again, And I do not want the electorate to feel discouraged, feeling like the 2027 election has been decided.Everyone should have the right to come out to vote, no voter apathy, and ensure that their voices are heard, and that INEC enables a free and fair and credible election, and let the best man win, that Nigerians themselves vote for.I'll end on that note.Somna, your final thoughts on this?

Somna, before you speak, I would like you to speak to One, the rise of Syriac Dixon.He just registered his special purpose vehicle, which has now become the big deal.And then as for comparison with 2023 general elections, no, the objective conditions are different.Tinubu has had four years, more or less, of beingthe incumbent.Maybe the incumbency will be an issue here.

And as for structures, Pita Ubi has structures in the Southeast and on social media.And Kwaku Ansu also has structures.the NDC is not as if they will be coming empty -handed.

He just said that social media does not vote.

No, no, but there is a structure there.And there's also a structure on the ground in the South East.Yeah, there is.If you can integrate all of that.

Just a quick correction.Somebody sent me this.I'm a leader in the NDC.The NDC registration started from 2017.And I have all the correspondence from INEC from 2017 to 2019 till date before it was registered.

But they were officially registered in 2016.But they were officially registered in 2016.

Yeah, but it just got recognized.SPV, everybody has moved into it.Maybe some people from PDP will still join.And the over 9 million membership of SOGE that I quoted will even be more.They can even get to 14 million.

So you have two minutes to sum up your thoughts.

Very interesting perspective.You brought a whole lot of questions.And I would have loved to have more time, but I have two minutes.Very clearly.The NDC, and I told Senator Seriaki Dixon on the day of this launch of this party, I was there.I mean, I left everything I was doing at the office to specifically be at that launch, to hear what the vision for the party was.

And it was a very good, you know, outing for them.Now, the NDC, though they may want to deny it, is actually built after one of the first Republic political parties, the Niger Delta Congress.The Niger Delta Congress was formed by the late Chief Harold Dapa Birye, who used to be in the NCNC, and he eventually left the NCNC by Azikiwe and joined Action Group by Chief Obafemi Awolowo.But then, when, you know,the movement and the crisis in the action group, you know, started coming up, he then formed this Niger Delta Congress, and he's been known as a father of minority rights in Nigeria.Don't forget, there was a Willings Commission.

He was one of those, yes, he was one of those who actually pushed for that commission to be put in place, because a whole lot of minorities in Nigeria were angry and were afraid for the future, as the country was going to independence in 1960.So he championed this party, NDC, and used it to get into an alliance with the NPC.And then, of course, in 1964 -1965 election, you'll see that the MPC has some good showing, despite the allegations of rigging and all of that.Now, coming in to this Fourth Republic and this party being brought in place, originally, the idea of bringing this party was not to actually make it look national, the way they are trying to make it look national, but to have a political party that advances the rights of the Niger Delta people through minority rights and all of that, the oil resource allocation battle and all of that.And Chief Seriake Dixon, having seen the challenges that were happening...

Countryman.

Countryman, as he likes to call himself.Having seen the challenges in the PDP, saw a loophole to actually revive this and bring together...Moreover, Senator Seriake Dixon himself was is a protege of Chief Harold Apabire himself.He had worked with him and all of that.And so, having seen this clear opportunity that has presented himself, He sought for the registration and there was a court in Lokoja that actually gave this until, you know, the likes of Dr. Umar Adu came up saying that, look, this party was not properly registered.And that's why that person is talking to you, that they have sent some of the registration materials to INX since, but that wasn't registered.

But now the party has been put together.Now there's thisview from some sections of the North that, are we not going into a Niger Delta -led party?But then, what has been the political alliance between the Niger Delta and the North, for example?They've always had very good political alliance.Very good political alliance.

Going back to this NDC that I talked to you about, and then the likes of, you know, the late Armando Bello, you know, sponsoring a whole lot of, you know, people from the South -South going to school at the ABU and all of that.So this is a very good opportunity for them to come together.And then look at the prospects.The prospects are there that if Peter Obi is able to, you know, do the hard work, because that's where the The actual situation lies.You can't just move into a party that is new and just be dormant.You have to go down to the grassroots, right from the polling unit to the ward, to the zonal congresses, and do the real work, which is registering members and ensuring that these people on social media translate to actual members who have PVCs and who are registered members.

In a nutshell, as I try to conclude, President Chinobu, had should have known clearly that this is the time of the South.Peter Obi too.Peter Obi is seen as if this is his last shot too.Because if there's a window for the South to actually provide a president, and that window will expire in 2031, Peter Obi is going to be 70 years in 2031.Well, then it will go to the North and then you have another 80 years.Will he be 78 when he comes back to the South?

How old is Atiku Abubakar?Atiku Abubakar is in his 70s.

He's about to turn 80.

Yeah, he's going to 80.Abubakar is 69, he's going to be 73.His age is a thing of grace.Yeah, well, it's a thing of grace.But look at the people who are powering the Obedient Movement and Peter Obi.There are only young people who are actually saying that, look, this should even be the last set of Nigerians that are in their 60s or 70s that should govern this nation.

A 60 -year -old man is a brilliant man.

So well, I mean, it is.So it's a very difficult time for Nigerian politics.Nigerian politics, the youth population in this country want a total change, including this political party.The ideology, when I questioned Senator Seria K. Dixon, he said they are going to hand over this party to young people, and women are going to have, you know, tickets that will be given freely.But these things are always told us.When APC was being formed in 2014, isn't this the reason why a whole lot of journalists too, you know, felt enthused to be able to support this party because the PDP had become arrogant with power.

But now what happens is that once they get into power, they become the conservative, the status quo.Even Peter Obi, if we don't hold him and scrutinize him, assuming he does win, it's going to be the conservative.Most of the promises that they are saying, they won't keep to it.

We need to go.But I think a good point there, because we have a young population.

Yeah, we need to question the manifesto.Nigeria should not be blinded by the movement.Yes, it's a tactical move.These are the realities.Nobody wouldn't want to, I mean, if it were Peter Obi, you would want to be on the ballot.Why is an article better than Peter Obi?

The reality is that the Nigerian politics is changing.And women should take advantage of the NDC saying that they are going to give free tickets.Don't be afraid.

Challenge men.

If they do give the tickets freely, if they do sell the forms freely, women should get into the party.Build this new movement and maybe in five to eight years, push the older generation away.

of the party following the Supreme Court's judgment of April 30, 2026.Speaking on behalf of the BOT, Wabara said the party remains strong despite internal challenges.He appreciated the party leaders, including Kabiru Tureki, and members of the dissolved National Working Committee for their loyalty to the party, stressing that having weathered the storm, it will not succumb to destabilization efforts.According to him, the PDP has secured the required support to convene its 103rd NEC meeting on May 4, 2026, with the Independent National Electoral Commission duly notified.

Nevertheless,the good news is that despite the turbulence, our party is still standing strong and can never die.The PDP will never surrender to remnants and political brigands.We must stand firm and resist all machinations from individuals and institutions.I'm indeed pleased to inform Nigerians that our party has already secured the statutorily required consent of two -thirds of the members of the National Executive Committee, NEC, to convene the 103 NEC meeting tomorrow, Monday, 4th May, 2026.And INEC will also be notified.

The federal government has summoned the acting High Commissioner of South Africa to a meeting in Abuja following concerns over recent protests targeting foreigners and attacks on Nigerian citizens and their businesses in the country.According to a statement issued yesterday by the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kimyebe Ebyanfa, the meeting was scheduled to take place on Monday at the ministry's headquarters.The ministry said the engagement was aimed at addressing developments that could strain diplomatic ties between both nations, which historically maintained cordial relations.The ministry noted that discussions at the meeting would center on ongoing demonstrations by groups in South Africa, as well as reported cases involving Nigerian nationals.