The Next 48 Hours Will Be Absolutely WILD...

It's Saturday, February 21st, 2026. It's the 52nd day of the year, and we've got a major nor'easter, a blizzard on the way to the East Coast tomorrow. We're tracking likely blizzard conditions for New York City and Long Island

with snowfall totals ranging from 12 to 20, maybe even more inches than that. So let's get right into it. This is gonna be a big storm. We're tracking a rapidly intensifying nor'easter that's set to bring blizzard conditions and over a foot of snow to parts of the northeast on Sunday into Monday. This all starts tomorrow, so the time to prepare

is right now. The bullseye for this event has shifted to the coast. The original idea was that this storm was going to stay out to sea. That's what everybody thought the day before yesterday. But yesterday, everything started to come together. And today, we are really converging on a significant signal for a big-time storm over here on the East Coast tomorrow into Monday. We're looking at the highest impacts from the eastern shore of Maryland through New

Jersey, New York City, Long Island, and into southeastern New England. And while everyone is just going to talk about New York City, I do want to mention the Virginia to Philly corridor. I think that this is going to start off as rain for a lot of these areas, and then it's going to switch over to snow, especially in Richmond, Virginia, south of Washington, DC,

into the Delmarva. This is something that we have to think about, because Philly sits in the critical zone due to its proximity to the heavy snow. We are going to see rain to snow transition Sunday afternoon down here and that could lead to some problems outside of just having full on snow. It's also going to lead to less snowfall totals in places like Richmond, Virginia, even though

you guys are going to be right there next to this storm as it undergoes bombogenesis. This is a classic bombogenesis setup where the surface low is actually going to drop rapidly with its pressure more than 12 millibars over 24 hours. In fact, I think it's going to drop like 30 millibars very quickly. This is going to create a powerful vacuum that pulls in cold air and moisture. So whenever we have a bomb cyclone, it's literally going to pull cold air down from Canada like

you ain't never seen before. We've got a blizzard warning right now in New York City and there hasn't been one of these over here in over a decade. There's going to be a lot of dynamics at play. Don't be fooled by the somewhat warmer temperatures today. Things are going to change big time. And the impacts are going to be dangerous.

We're talking about snowfall rates of one to three inches per hour, combined with wind gusts up to 50 to 70 miles per hour, and that's gonna create whiteout conditions, snow drifts, coastal flooding, and potentially even some power outages. And then this is not gonna be a super light, fluffy, powdery snow. It's gonna be a heavy snow,

so it's gonna be good for making snowmen, but that adds to the power outage problem. Now, before we continue talking about the snowfall totals, which I know everybody wants to hear about, let's get nerdy real quick. You see that big thing above me and you see this big thing over here? We're looking at winds about 18,000 feet up, okay?

And this is like the core ingredients for our storm. And I just want to point out something interesting here. The root cause of our big door Easter on the East Coast is actually associated with this jet core speed max back here in the Gulf of Alaska, which is going to propagate through and lead to an amplified ridge in the West Coast. What goes up must come down. So this geometry over here is actually going to help deepen the trough closer to the coast on the East Coast. Okay. So this is one of the big reasons

why all of the models are so confident and what's going to happen over here is because of all this plum wild activity on the west coast and just to put you know all That into perspective for you to kind of make it less complicated. This is the real deal This is legit and it's about to get plum wild and let's say you're not impressed by the snow Okay, you're not impressed by the bombo genesis. You're not impressed by anything really? Well, this might be Impressive to you the thing that's to catch a lot of people off guard, I think, is the winds. We often see strong winds with nor'easters, but this one looks like it's going to be a

whole other beast. Okay, we're talking about wind gusts 50 to 70 to maybe even 80 miles per hour along the coast, especially in eastern Long Island up there towards Cape Cod. And look at this. I mean, this looks like a tropical system with an eye as we get into Monday, and this is going to be parked, you know, just off to the southeast of Nantucket, which is the worst place for a storm to be. By the time it gets up here on, you know, Monday, it's going to lock in over there and it's just going to dump a ton of snow

and heavy wind into the Southern New England area. And this is going to definitely lead to power outages. And I think that's something that we've got to just kind of hammer down over and over again because it's not just along the coast that's where the strongest winds are going to be but look even farther inland we're talking about gusts of 30 to 50 miles per hour maybe all the way up there into western Massachusetts southern portions of New York the entire state of New Jersey and then especially up there in the southern Vermont and

southern Maine get ready for those strong winds and this will also come with a coastal flooding element as well. Alright let's talk about snowfall totals. We're gonna start with the low end. Okay I always like to use the Euro AI as the low end and a lot of times this is actually pretty much more realistic than a lot of the other models but you know everything is confusing with this storm so maybe things have changed but if I was making a snowfall map I would be looking at the Euro AI for my more

conservative realistic kind of like this is what's likely going to happen model And if I was making a snowfall map, I would be looking at the Euro AI for my more conservative, realistic, kind of like, this is what's likely going to happen model. And that's showing a measly five inches of snow in Washington, DC, only 2.9 inches in Richmond. That sounds right to me, right? Because this is where we're going to be starting off as a little bit of rain, and we have to

hope that the transition happens at the right time and we're not going to be getting in on as much of that bombo Genesis snow. Okay, that's going to be reserved for areas along the coast in New Jersey, New York and up there towards Southeast New England, right? General three to six inches is probably safe for places like Baltimore, Washington and Richmond, but it could be a surprise kind of system where we get more than that, but I wouldn't bet the bank on it. The same thing could be said for Philadelphia, but this is a different reason.

Okay. The same thing could be said for Philadelphia, but this is a different reason, okay? One thing that is going to be hard to predict here is where the snow cutoff is. We're definitely getting buried along the coast, all right? But is this going to be the kind of system that buries the coast and also 100 or 200 miles inland, or is there a very sharp cutoff where it's like a mountain of snow on the coast and then, ooh, we go down, down, down very quickly. The Euro AI suggests that we're gonna go down pretty quickly, even though it's gonna be cold,

we have less to be concerned about up here about the potential rain mixing in. It's saying that there's gonna be maybe close to 18 inches of snow on the coast, but only seven inches in Philadelphia. And that is a realistic possibility.

Same thing up here in New York City, 10 inches on the low end is definitely a possibility. Hartford, Connecticut, 10 inches. You know, Springfield, Massachusetts, 8 inches. But even on the low end in Boston, I think that 15 is on the table. 20 in Plymouth.

We're talking about 16 in Providence. We're talking about 14.8 in Brookhaven. Toms River, New Jersey. Atlantic City, how about 15 or 16 inches. is on the low end right now, according to all the models, that's what it's looking like. Now let's have some fun and look at the high end. This is the national blend of models. This is all the models squished together, which is supposedly supposed to be a conservative forecast, but most of the models are going plum wild on this one. So it wouldn't be surprising to me if any of these

numbers actually came to fruition, okay? So just because they're on the high end doesn't mean that they're not realistic. But here we go, maybe three inches in Richmond, maybe, maybe, maybe, maybe close to a foot in Washington. So there's a big spread there, but that's the fun of these kinds of storm systems. I do not envy your local meteorologist whatsoever. And this is showing a little bit more of some snow going farther back inland, right? So this is not showing as much of a cutoff in Philadelphia. We're still looking at two feet in Philadelphia, maybe 10 inches in Harrisburg. All the way back in Scranton, we could be looking at 14 inches in a worst-case scenario. The entire state of New Jersey gets absolutely buried in close to 30 inches of snow. Again, this is realistic. This could actually happen, but it's on the high end more than likely. Close

to 30 inches in New York City, Boston, 30 inches. Springfield, 14 inches., Albany 8 inches. You get the picture. You get the gist, right? This is on the high end of what we could expect and the other ones on the low end. The actual data at the end of the storm will likely be somewhere in the middle, but there will be a couple of places that are surprises, right? It's like, oh wow, this area got a lot less snow than what we thought. This area got a lot more. That happens every snowstorm. It's impossible to predict where the heaviest bands will set up, but this is your high end snowfall forecast. And while the northeast is buried in snow, we're gonna see a major

pattern flip bringing early summer heat to the central U. S. By midweek, we're talking about eighties and nineties in the south and into the desert southwest. We're talking about Santa Fe Tucson over here in southwest Texas. It's gonna get plum warm. A lot of that warmth is gonna propagate out into the plains, even into the Ohio Valley, the Southeast. And some of it will eventually make it back up into the Northeast. So this is not gonna be the kind of snow

that sticks around for a very long time. It'll be mostly gone a week or two from now, more than likely up there in the Northeast, which is good. I was just in New York City yesterday, And there was still a ton of leftover snow on the sides of the streets and stuff from the storm that we got forever ago, so this one's gonna be impactful But hopefully we can rinse ourselves clean of it as this major Ridge builds up across the center of the United States

And that's pretty much all the weather talk I have for you today. Thank you so much for watching And that's pretty much all the weather talk I have for you today. Thank you so much for watching I will see you in the next one. We're likely gonna be going live tomorrow. So turn that notification bell on and goodbye