This Severe Setup Is Quickly Escalating...

It's thursday, May 28th, 148th day of the year and loading up one of the mos of the week.Saturday is are going to get plum wi Nebraska and South Dakot hail and a tornado threa damaging wind cluster is while the east coast deal and storms.

So let's jump you live anywhere in West Dakota, your saturday is a little complicated and I need you to hear me out on this one because two days ago I did say that you were pretty close to that beautiful and perfect weather zone but the weather heard my forecast and it's deciding that it's wanting to do the complete opposite here.I'm a lot more worried about Saturday today than I was 24 hours ago and that's typical for late May early June we often get these ever -changing forecasts it gets really hard to predict this mesoscale stuff as we get deeper into the hot months but overnight my confidence really jumped because the The high -res models are showing stronger wind shear and way more storm fuel than what we were looking at earlier.So because of that trend, the Storm Prediction Center actually already has a slight risk drawn over Western Nebraska and South Dakota.

We're talking about Rapid City, Sturgis, Rapid Valley, North Platte, basically anywhere west of Highway 83 and north of I -80.Y 'all are sitting right smack dab in the bullseye.Now, if you're east of there in Omaha or Sioux Falls, you're probably going to dodge the worst of it on Saturday.

but the western Dakotas and the western side of Nebraska needs to be on alert.I think we're going to have a pretty significant storm system over here.I'm still trying to figure out exactly where the nastiest cells are going to set up, but it's all coming together because a wave of energy is ejecting across the northern Rockies and it's about to pull a massive amount of energy into the plains.

And for those of you who are watching south of here and east of here, even over into the Mississippi Valley and stuff, don't tune out.This exact same system is eventually going to open back up and track your way, but Enjoy the video.

weather over there in the meantime because this isn't your run -of -the -mill rainmaker.We're talking about large hail and damaging winds out of these storms over here in the plains.The worst of these storms are going to happen between 4 p .m.and 9 p .m.

on Saturday when the afternoon heating maxes out the instability.You got to get your cars in the garage or under a carport before dinner on Saturday because golf ball size hail is definitely going to cause some damage out here in some of these towns.

There is also a chance for a brief tornado early when the storms first go up, whenever they present as discrete supercells, but it's not my main concern right now.

So if you happen to have anything outdoors planned on Saturday out here, especially if it's in the afternoon, I'd have a backup plan.I'd have a real way of getting warnings.This is the exact scenario that y 'all call was built for.So when a warning fires for your spot, the phone's going to ring with my voice until you actually answer.Even if you're out on a gravel road in the middle of But why this specific corridor from Scott's Bluff up through Rapid City?What's the reason that this spot is lighting up?

Well, it comes down to a nasty collision of ingredients that are coming together way more aggressively than what we originally thought they would.As that upper level low swings across the northern Rockies, it's going to anchor a massive blocking pattern that is simultaneously forcing that stalled, soggy front across the southeast.You guys know what I'm talking about down there.We've had a bunch of rain.This is kind of the other side of the block.It's going to be dry.

Dragon cold air aloft over the plains.And when you drop that cold air on top of a very hot afternoon at the surface, you get extreme instability and the atmosphere is absolutely primed to detonate over here.I think we're going to see some explosive storms, probably some beautiful looking supercells.And at the same time, dew points are going to be surging to the low 60s in Western South Dakota.And that moisture is gasoline, especially this far north with as much cold air aloft as we're going to have.We could definitely start seeing storms explode around four or 5 p .

dangerous Okay, the storms are just gonna keep sucking up that warm juicy air and they're just gonna keep going and going and going And I think that it's actually possible that we get an enhanced risk of severe weather Maybe once we get to the day one outlook, of course, it's gonna stay a slight risk for now But with all that inflow and all that instability, we're definitely gonna have some very bad severe storms So make sure you guys are prepared for that now That's where Saturday gets really dangerous. It'sIt's not just that the storms fire, it's how they evolve once the sun goes down.Remember, 4 to 9 p .m., that's going to be your primary severe risk zone for supercells and damaging winds and stuff like that.Of course, we always talk about the supercells, the isolated discrete supercells, but in a situation like this, we are definitely going to have to consider a mesoscale convective system or a big cluster of storms that's going to continue to surge east after the supercells kind of merge together.

is going to shift from hail to a wide swath of damaging straight line winds blasting eastwards.We're talking about wind gusts up to 60 to 70 miles per hour, and that's enough to knock out.power lines and rip shingles off and drop full size trees across the road.So this could keep going throughout the overnight hours and keep going to places even farther east than the highlighted area.So some places farther east, maybe over there towards Sioux Falls and Omaha could be dealing with a late night MCS.We just we won't know until we get to the actual day because all the specific mesoscale ingredients of the day will determine whether or not this happens.

And we really won't know until the day of.And we're going to dive much deeper into that right after we shout out to today's awesome sponsor.

I love my dog Luna more than just about anything.She's a huge part of the family, and I want to make sure she's getting the absolute best.That's why today's sponsor, Sundays for Dogs, is completely changing the game for Luna's mealtime.When I shop for groceries, I try to get the best ingredients possible, right?And my new rule of thumb is to do the same for my daggone dog.Sundaes for Dogs recipes are crafted around real nutrient -dense ingredients with things like beef, chicken, and turkey.

That sounds good to me.Then they combine that protein with functional superfoods like quinoa, blueberries, spinach, and pumpkin.It's gently air -dried to lock in all of those nutritional benefits, giving you fresh, real food without any artificial additives.And the cherry on top is that it's It's incredibly easy.You just scoop and serve.There's no prep.

There's no mess.There's no taking up half of your fridge space or anything like that.And the dogs go crazy for it.Luna literally goes crazy for it.And I have total peace of mind knowing exactly what's going into her bowl.Serve your dog the 100 % meat and superfoods they deserve.

Get 50 % off your first order at SundaysForDogs .com slash RyanHall50 or use my code RyanHall50 at checkout.The link is at the top of the description.Now, let's get back into the video.

Okay, now let's slide south because Wichita, Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Norman, and Abilene, you guys are not in the bullseye, but you're not off the hook either.We've got a broader marginal risk that stretches all the way from central Kansas down into Oklahoma and into northwest Texas on Saturday.The setup down here is different.We've got a dry line and a surface trough working with an atmosphere that's primed to pop, okay?I'm watching a wild amount of moisture working across Kansas.It's literally tropical level juice for me. which means that any storm that does fire up is going to be a water loader, okay?

It's going to be a daggone gully washer.And by late Saturday afternoon, isolated cells could pop right along that dry line.And because they'll be isolated, not everybody's going to see the rain, okay?But the ones that do are going to see some significant rain and maybe even some large hail and some damaging wind gusts.It only takes one rogue supercell to wreck your Saturday, okay?So if you're on I -35, I would definitely keep weather -wise open on your phone so the polygon alerts are turned on.

new notifications.are turned on and everything because it's going to show you whether or not you need to pull over and wait for the storm to pass or something like that.You definitely want to maintain situational awareness if you're driving through this stuff.And before we get into Saturday's main event, we have to get through Friday and Friday is the warm up act.There's a marginal risk of severe storms scattered across the southern plains up into central high plains and up into western Montana across eastern New Mexico.the Texas Panhandle in Oklahoma.

The jet stream is going to be combining with afternoon heating, and it's going to fire off some of these isolated storms.Friday isn't going to be a widespread outbreak or anything like that.We've got some marginal hail and some gusty outflow winds, but again, this is something worth looking at here because there's going to be a couple places, especially where the instability really gets out of hand.There's going to be a couple places that we get some microbursts, which is basically a sudden violent blast of wind and rain.And we want to make sure that you are prepared for stuff like that, but not everybody's going to see it.

And if you were hoping that the storms wrapped up after the weekend, I've got bad news for you because the extended outlook actually says otherwise.

The Storm Prediction Center, they don't have any actual polygons for days four through eight.But if you read their outlook discussion, they're saying that there's a signal that this active pattern is going to keep rolling right through early next week with daily storm chances from the plains.And that's going to be moving alongside a persistent wet and stormy set up down in the southeast.We might even see some of these storms try to move into the Midwest a little bit.I'm personally watching a corridor of extreme instability, potentially setting up from Nebraska and Kansas down into Missouri.And this is the kind of environment where storms basically have everything they need handed to them.

OK, and with that much juice, any cluster of storms that do develop is going to be dangerous.And this is the kind of year where we really don't know what's going to happen with these things until the day of some of our biggest tornadoes from late May and early June.If you think back to like the big Big Names.tornadoes and stuff, none of that came from a big trough moving through.None of that came from a signal that you could see seven days out.It all had to do with extreme instability and mesoscale stuff on the day of, and that's what we have to be watching out for with these storms as we go through the next several days.

You guys east of Missouri are like, what about us?And honestly, there's not much to talk about over there.It's going to be nice for a lot of us.It's going to be rainy for a lot of us.some others of us, but I've got to pivot west real quick because there's actually stuff going on over here.We've got that blocking pattern actually bringing a marginal risk for excessive rainfall into Montana.

Okay, and Wyoming, all right?There's a 90 % chance of at least an inch of rain near the continental divide.My big worry over here is going to be flash flooding on burn scars.Heavy rain on charred ground means that instant mudslides and debris flows are possible.And here's something wild.The snow levels are actually going to be crashing way lower than what we originally thought, okay?

That we're actually going to be down to around 6 ,000 feet.This is not normal for May.It's not necessarily completely unheard of, but it's going to be snowing in May in a large portion of this area.So make sure you are ready for that.And the big, you know, driving factor behind this is a strong jet stream aloft down near the four corners.And that's going to cause gusts up to 35 miles per hour and bring humidity down under 15 % down here.

And any spark from a dragging trailer chain or, you know, somebody flipping a cigarette out the window or something like that could turn into a wildfire instantly.That's legit.So we've got too much water on one side, too little on the other, and both of them can be dangerous.So make sure you are prepared for any impacts.Now, again, everybody east of the severe weather and the wildfire problems and the snow, I mean, it's pretty much just gonna be rain, okay?We've got some rain chances over here in Florida, and some of it could actually be pretty, you know, intense.

We've got this stalled out front over here, and the atmosphere over the eastern gulf is pretty saturated right now.There's probablygoing to be quite a bit of flash flooding down here i think the weather prediction center is actually going to upgrade some of these marginal risks for flash flooding or excessive rainfall to slight risks because if you look at miami up through west palm we're going to have a lot of training thunderstorms over here and that means that we're going to see more flooded streets water out over the roadways and stalled cars during the afternoon commute so the florida drought It's getting some relief, but three to six inches of rain on city concrete means that you're going to be driving through a lake before you know it.And let's end this one on a good note because Friday somebody is hitting the weather jackpot and it's going to be just like I promised in my last video.The big Canadian high is parking over the central Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley.We're talking about Columbus, Pittsburgh, Grand Rapids.

You're all getting crystal clear skies for the most part.A near zero rain chance.Dew points in the 50s.So again, if you're going to that Breakaway Music Festival in Columbus, or if you're catching the Pirates at PNC Park, the dry air is going to make for an unbelievably good day outside.All right, this is the exact opposite of the muggy mess down in Florida.So it's going to feel flawless the second you step out the door.

So we're talking about hiking, yard work, patio lunches, all of it.Okay.Friday is the day.Just throw on some sunscreen.Make sure you bring some water with you.Just soak it all in.

Okay.Because this quiet weather pattern is not going to last.And that's pretty much all the weather talk I have for you today.Make sure you slap a like on this video, subscribe if you haven't already, and I will see you in the next one.Goodbye.Bye.