This Strange Pattern Is Escalating FAST...

It's Saturday, July 11, 2026.It's the 192nd day of the year, and there's a lot brewing in the pattern this week.There is a late week severe weather setup lighting up for the mid Atlantic, D .C., Baltimore, Philly, Raleigh and Virginia Beach, with nearly 29 million people sitting inside of a zone that I'm watching very closely for Friday.And also there's a bunch of heat and flooding coming.

So let's talk about that.If you live anywhere from Washington, D .C., up to Philadelphia and down to Raleigh, keep one eye on next Friday.We're talking about July 17th because again nearly 29 million Indians are sitting inside of a zone that I'm actually watching pretty closely because there's already a 15 % severe weather risk drawn up for Friday across the Mid -Atlantic and it's tied to the exact kind of pattern that we typically see Really explode in July, but here's how it comes together.We've got a massive heat dome That's building out over the central US and by Tuesday It's gonna start sliding east and it's gonna park a lid of high -pressure aloft from Montana all the way over to Michigan.

On the eastern side of that dome, the winds up high are gonna start ripping out of the northwest.We're basically gonna have a high -speed conveyor belt aimed at the east coast.Now, before a single storm shows up, it's just gonna be brutal out there, okay?Heat indices are gonna be near 100 degrees from DC to Philly by Wednesday, so if you are headed to Citizens Bank Park for the MLB All -Star events, you're gonna be sweating through your shirt, okay?And in central North Carolina, we're gonna be baking near 100 to 100.105 as well from Thursday into Friday.

And during that same time period, high pressure over the Atlantic is going to pump warm, soupy air into the region and it's going to load the atmosphere like a daggone loaded gun.Then late in the week, that heat dome begins to break down a little bit.The lid comes off and the door swings open for a couple of really big storm clusters.I think what we're going to see is what we call MCSs, mesoscale convective systems.They're just going to start diving south and east.And this is a signal signature threat.

with this Northwest flow.OK, we see this all the time, but this is one of the more impressive long range signals I've seen for an event like this in quite some time.Now, will it hit your exact city?Well, if you're anywhere from Baltimore to Virginia Beach, you're in the zone, but it's way too early to nail the exact storm track.In fact, I'll be straight with you.My confidence at this exact hour is pretty low, but the Storm Prediction Center already put a 15 % risk out, which is rare.

Okay.And they're the experts.So, you know, they're seeing something.I mean, I'm definitely seeing what they're seeing on the models.I do think it could change, but it's important that we don't shrug this off because back in late July, 2021, one of these same kinds of setups dropped an EF two and an EF three tornado in Pennsylvania.Okay.

Is it really the same kind of analog setup?So if everything lines up the way the extended data is hinting at Friday could turn into a very busy, very dangerous for the I -95 corridor.Again, I don't think the main threat will be tornadoes or anything, but straight -line damaging winds at least are going to be a huge problem out here.Now, while the East Coast waits on Friday, the West is already living through a life -threatening heat wave peaking right now from the Intermountain West into the Northern Plains.Highs between 100 and 110 degrees, going straight after all -time records in Utah and up into the Dakotas.We're breaking records left and right.

Sunday is going to be the peak of the whole stretch.We're going to be running 25 degrees above normal for mid July and it's already hot in mid July.So 25 degrees above normal is crazy.Actually, it's all one giant unusually strong dome of high pressure trapping hot dry air like a lid on a boiling pot.That's what's happening out here.Salt Lake City could break or tie its all time record of 107 and Billings Montana is staring down 108, which is going to bring down a bunch of records.

So at that level of heat, your body simply can't cool itself.Heat exhaustion can hit and minutes andyou're working hard outside.And I know a lot of you guys that watch this channel are doing that.So we got to be thinking about that.But also stack triple digit heat on top of bone dry brush and a humidity level crashing below 10 % and add some 30 mile per hour wind gusts.

And the wildfire danger is going through the roof as well.I'm actually most worried about Eastern Idaho and Southern portions of Montana and Wyoming on Sunday.there is going to be a strengthening surface low that's going to drive those gusts right over the driest fuels out there.So should you cancel your plans?Well, if you've got a hard hike planned in northern Utah or eastern Montana this weekend, either build a backup plan or finish before 10 a .m.

That's all I've got to say about it.A cold front is finally going to drag cooler Pacific air into Montana by late Sunday into Monday, but the northern plains are going to stay dangerously hot.This is not your average hot summer weekend.This is the kind of heat that buckles roads, shatters records, and puts vulnerable people in the hospital.Now we're going to go from heat that won't quit to water that won't stop.There is a serious flash flood risk rolling through the rest of the weekend across the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee valleys, with storms training over the same soaked ground over and over again.

The bullseye is going to continue to run from western Kentucky down into central Tennessee or middle Tennessee, where the air is absolutely loaded with moisture.We're talking about top 10 % for this time of year.and these storms are gonna be barely even crawling.The steering winds, the stuff that normally gets these storms out of here are gonna drop to nearly nothing tonight.So the storms are gonna rebuild over the same spots and they're gonna dump more than two inches of rain per hour.A river of humid air is gonna crank up this evening, feeding even more moisture and even more fuel into these slow clusters right over ground that's already been maxed out from recent heavy rain.

We've had tons of flooding problems out here.In fact, it's flooding right now in a lot of these places.where I think.the heaviest rainfall is going to be a little bit farther to the south and west today.But I'm also widening the general flood risk into the Ohio Valley as well, because we're going to have some rain up there that's going to be really heavy also.So if you've got tickets to the Cubs and Reds at the Great American Ballpark on Sunday afternoon, be ready for delays and some blinding downpours as this whole thing lifts off to the north and east.

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Now, let's keep talking about the same weekend, but a different trouble a little bit farther east.In the southeast, we need you to stay weather aware because a wandering front is going to kick off some scattered severe storms.I've got a level two slight risk drawn up for Sunday across eastern Georgia and the Carolinas.Storm Prediction Center has nearly 13 .7 million people, including Charleston and Columbia in this elevated risk for severe weather.And these storms are going to eventually slide into northern Florida as well on Monday.So if you're the person person in Augusta who just cashed that $200 ,000 winning lottery ticket this morning.

I hope you've got a safe spot to ride these out because the storms are going to pack a punch, okay?Now, Sunday's got a stalled boundary draped across the region.The most organized storms are going to fire in North Carolina where the wind shear is going to be the strongest, but the hottest and most explosive air is going to sit a little bit further south than that.So that's actually a pretty perfect recipe for rain loaded down drafts that crank out 60 mile per hour plus gusts.That's enough to bringdown tree limbs and power lines.

So if you're outside Sunday afternoon in the Carolinas, make sure you keep the weather wise app pulled up and lean on that lightning layer because these storms are going to pop up out of nowhere and you'll see the cores building before you even hear the first rumble.Now, before that late week pattern ever reaches the mid Atlantic, it fires off an early potent severe weather threat for New England on Tuesday.There's also another 15 % severe weather risk up there on Tuesday New Hampshire and Maine, i Burlington, a cold front t for july is going to sla loaded with storm energy a wind shear over 50 knots air that's coming with th cools off even more as yo storm.So broken lines co everything on the table, and damaging winds.We can' or two.It's unlikely wit but we've seen it before.

Like I mentioned earlier, the window sharpens up late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.And the big question is just how long that instability is going to hang around as the front swings through.So if you live north of a Concord to Portland line, Tuesday is shaping up to be a day that you want to be very weather aware.And since this threat rolls right into Tuesday night, this is exactly why I built y 'all call. If a warning drops for your location after dark, your phone's going to ring and ring and ring until you pick up. Okay. All right. And I promise y 'all it's not all storms and warnings. We do have some good news out there. If you need a break from all that on Sunday, we're going to be serving up some of the best outdoor weather of the entire year across the North. Okay, so we got a huge stretch of gorgeous conditions running through the Pacific Northwest through the upper Midwest right into northern New England. We're talking about Portland, Oregon and Bangor, Maine.All these places are basically maxing out the comfort index on Sunday.All right, all these places are also going to have their own problems throughout the next week or so, but Sunday looks really nice with highs in the upper 70s.

It's definitely a day to open the windows, give the AC a rest, and catch the Wimbledon men's final from the couch.And that's all the weather talk I have for y 'all today.Thank you so much for watching.Make sure you slap a like on this video and subscribe if you haven't already, and I will see you in the next one.Goodbye.