Triple Trump Voter: "WORST MISTAKE OF MY LIFE!"

President Trump flew to Michigan yesterday to deliver an economic speech.And the news is good, folks.Don't worry.You're pretty much doing as well as you ever have.Let's take a listen.

We're having the single greatest year we've ever had as a country.We're not going to let these people destroy it.We're delivering the largest prescription drug price cuts in the history of our country by far with differences of 400, 500 and even 600 million.percent.Nobody can believe it.We will pass the great health care plan.

That's what it's called.A great health care plan to stop all payments to big insurance companies and give the money directly to you, the people, so that they can buy their own health care, which will be much less expensive and be a much better health care.

Meanwhile, let's put this Washington Post headline up on the screen.Republicans see, quote, scary lack of enthusiasm among core voters ahead of midterms.A little bit from the piece here, quote, Republican pollsters and political groups are raising the alarm.Their party faces a listless and demotivated base ahead of November's midterm elections.A raft of discouraging data from polling, door knocking and focus groups is unsettling Republicans as their party heads into a midterm election season that would be challenging no matter what, given President Trump's low standing in polls.and the fact that the party control in Washington almost always loses seats, which, by the way, is something that Trump was saying ahead of the Iran war.

He was saying, he gave a speech in Iowa, I think it was back in January, Crystal, where he was talking about how, you know, it's not a big deal, he probably won't, Republicans probably won't win the midterms.Not only is that historical precedent still salient, but he also has, let's just check the AAA gas price.The national average today is about $4 .01.That is within 100 days of the midterm election.I think we dopassed the 100 -day benchmark, what, two days ago?

So no wonder, no wonder they're seeing signs, or seeing signs, quote, of listlessness among the base.And I'm curious, Crystal, for your take on his messaging.of the economy being...He's doing a little bit of blaming Biden, but then also saying it's great.It's a total mixed message, but he doesn't have much to work with at this point, of course, when he's trying to tell voters everything is just fine and, in fact, it's actually better than ever.

Many a president has crashed into the rocks trying to convince voters that the economy is good when the economy is not, in fact, good.I think it's one of the hardest things to bullshit on, even for the most effective bullshit artist, perhaps, of all time in American political history, Donald Trump.Because people have their own individual experience with the economy.It's numbers.It's math at the end of the day.Am I able to afford what I used to be able to afford at the grocery store?

Am I able to make rent at the end of the month?Am I able to even conceive of the possibility of ever becoming a homeowner?Am I able to afford my health insurance premiums?And so you can't, there's very few people, there may be a few, but there's very few people that you're going to be able to rhetorically persuade that their economic situation is different than their actual experience of it.So when he says America's having the best year of all time, there are going to be very few people who are going to be persuaded by that.And all of those people were going to be diehard Trump fans.

The latest Gallup poll has only 22 % of Americans who say the economy is either good or excellent.That is absolutely dismal.That piece in the Washington Post is really quite dire because you have them saying, you know, one in five Republican voters, so 20 % of the Republican base is at risk of either staying home or voting for Democrats.That is an extraordinarily high number.I think, you know, when we're looking at the generic ballot, and, okay, theoretically Democrat versus Republican, et cetera.It's very hard to actually capture, but who is going to show up?

up.And midterms are a hundred percent a game of who is actually going to show up.And I think that lack of enthusiasm is the biggest problem for Republicans.It's not necessarily that diehard MAGA voters are in large numbers going to flip to Democrats, although I think some of them will.It's that many of them will be demobilized and simply stay home.They interviewed some Trump voters in Iowa, which Iowa's This is a state that Barack Obama wanted, but that feels like a million years ago at this point.

It shifted hard to the right.Very rural.This is the type of place that has increasingly moved against Democrats.You've got both a governor candidate, Democratic candidate, and a Senate candidate who have been pretty consistently up in the polls, including in a recent Fox News poll, Democrats winning both of those seats.So they interviewed this guy, three -time Trump voter in Western Iowa, which is very rural, Lance Cilentic, resident of Iowa's rural Harrison County.three presidential elections as, quote, the worst three mistakes I've ever made in my life.

Saying the president had failed to fulfill his campaign promises, higher gas prices have been costing his family an extra $300 to $500 every month for their motorcycle and four cars.He said, quote, we voted for Trump.He did the opposite of what he said he was going to do.Gas prices were going to be $2.Food was going to be cheaper.Energy prices were going to be in half.

We were going to get two rebate checks to the American people.We weren't going to have any new wars.And we were going to build a wall and deport 30 million illegal aliens.Interesting that he's also disappointed on that front.And he did none of it.So this man, you think he's going to, Trump is going to come out and say, oh, but it's the best year of your life, sir.

Don't worry.I don't think that's going to be very persuasive for him, Mumley.

No, of course not.And one of the things we should mention about the analysis that you brought up from The Washington Post piece is that it was done by Americans for Prosperity.So that's a Koch -backed group that hasbasically it's the old Tea Party ground game, but it's still here in 2026.And they were out making this analysis based on door knocking and actually talking to voters.So it's not even just like a cold statistical analysis.

A lot of it is qualitative, having these conversations.And we should also mention from the Post piece The latest Washington Post and Ipsos polling on this shows that, quote, Democrats have a 10 percentage point advantage over Republicans among voters who say they're absolutely certain to vote in November.Now, that is huge.Ryan and I covered last week the generic congressional ballot differences between now 2006 and 2018.Democrats and Harry Anton, who we're going to hear from in just a moment, has pointed this out.And if you look at real clear for those years too, it's pretty obvious.

Democrats are lagging, like they're up in the generic congressional ballot.I think it's five points last time I checked on RCP last week.They should be up higher if they're looking at like a blue tsunami year.from the same points in 2006 and 2018.That doesn't necessarily mean they won't have a blue tsunami or that those numbers won't change and be even more lopsided in their favor by the time Election Day rolls around.But as of right now, there's still work for Democrats to do to capitalize on the fact that Republican voters are possibly considering pulling the lever for some Democrats or staying home altogether.

So a fascinating dynamic.Let's put the CNBC headline up.US grocery slowdown deepens as shoppers buy fewer items, raising pressure on food companies.Shoppers are buying fewer items than a year ago and grocery sales are declining as weakening unit sales are now outweighing rising prices.CNBC reports this is according to a new analysis from Bain using Nielsen IQ grocery data sharedexclusively with CNBC, grocery units, which refer to individual items or products sold, fell 1 .8 % in June from a year earlier, a sharp reversal from the 0 .1 % year -over -year growth recorded in June 2025.

While prices continue to rise about 2 % to 3 % year -over -year, that inflation cushion for the industry is no longer enough to keep overall sales growing.So Trump went from recording a 0 .1 % growth year over year, his economy went from recording 0 .1 % growth year over year after Liberation Day, by the way, which is somewhat interesting.Obviously, these adjustments can take a long time to trickle into all parts of the economy, but in the midst of the Iran war to a dip of 1 .8 % from June to June.So the way that Democrats are going to get Republican voters either to stay home, those one in five that by November to stay home or vote Democrat.I mean, this is such a.a gift politically.

It's a tragedy for the country, but a gift politically, Crystal.

Yeah.And Emily, I know we talked a lot before about how Republicans were pinning a lot of hopes on the big, beautiful bill and the tax savings that Americans were going to be, you know, feeling in their bank accounts and the Trump baby accounts and these sorts of things.There was a recent poll, and I'll have the numbers in front of me, that, you know, unsurprisingly, American voters are very like, meh on the tax savings because they don't know what it is.Right.Number one, they don't know what it is.Number two, whatever savings they may have is being instantly eaten up the very next time they go to fill up their gas tank.

So, you know, you talked about we're a hundred days away from the midterms more or less.We're six months into the Iran war.There's no end in sight.And those economic indicators are just going to continue to decline.You know, we're going to have higher, even higher grocery prices.If you look at a chart at the cost of groceries over, let's say the past six years, the way it's skyrocketed, it is truly a jaw dropping how much more people are having to spend.

for the same items.I'm sure you've seen these viral TikToks where people pull out their receipts, their Target receipts or their Walmart receipts from 2019 and just be in shock at how much more they're paying for the exact same items.So yeah, you're not going to be able to talk that away.That is one area where people really have a very fine -tuned sense of of what is actually happening, much more so, I think, than is even captured in the top line numbers, which, you know, unemployment's low.It's not like things, if you just look at these certain macroeconomic indicators, look that disastrous.But the, you know, your average American is really feeling a lot of pain and a lot of despair.

about the direction that the country is going in and what the prospects are for them and their children.And that is the reason why, if we put before up on the screen, Trump is seeing his lowest approval rating, or I'm sorry, this is actually a SOT, a Harry Enten SOT, talking about some of these poll numbers of how Americans feel about the economy and how just dismally they're rating Trump's performance here.

Promises made, promises broken in the minds of the American public.44%, 38 % said they'd make them worse off back in October of 2024.

Look at these numbers now.

Oh my goodness, John's shaking his head off on the side.Now, 58%, nearly three in five voters say that Trump is making them financially worse off.That's up like a rocket.The better off down to the floor.Back when Trump was reelected, November of 2024, look at that, 42 % of Americans, less than 50 said that in fact, the economy was getting worse.Look at that now, 59%, 59 % say the US economy is getting worse.

I don't know how this works for Republicans come the midterm elections when the economy is the number one issue with inflation and three in five say it's getting worse off and just about one in five saying that it's getting better.That's amazing.

And Emily, I saw Trump going back to the well in that Michigan speech was supposed to be all about the economy, about like transports and utilizing kids and these sorts of culture war issues that, you know, he believes will help to rev up the base.And, you know, for some, sure.But I think when you're dealing with this, you know, pessimistic of an outlook on the economy and pessimistic view of Trump's own handling of the economy, because let's be clear, these are all complete own goals, manufactured crises of his own making.I don't think the culture war red meat is going to be be enough to rescue him.

Well, he was talking also about prescription drug prices.And the fact of the matter is health care premiums, early data for the year shows that they're likely to be increasing again this year.So he can talk about prescription drug prices that he's been able to, via executive order and deals with some of these individual companies, muscle down.And in some cases, I think that's good.But the overall picture is not a rosy one.And so calling attention to this kind of hodgepodge quilt of executive order accomplishments only goes so far when the big picture for people is not rosy.

But it doesn't reflect the optimism that he's trying to project.And that brings us full circle to the point you made initially.It's a classic pitfall for precedents.He's not on the ballot, which is another problem.The Washington Post article raised one of the experts saying, we have a high -propensity voter problem.That is from, again, one of the right -leaning experts who say, listen, Trump's not on the ballot, so not only do we not have the voters who turn out for Trump, that Trump coalition that does have more Hispanics, more men in particular, you don't have that coalition.

And a lot of polling suggests it's already fractured anyway because of the war and prices and the like.But on top of that, your high propensity voters that used to make up the Republican Party base are less energized and interested now, too.So they're in an absolute mess right now.

Yeah.And even on a prescription drug price thing, he just announced they just announced that they're slapping tariffs on generic drug imports, which is going to increase the logically increase the cost of those generic drugs, which are the less expensive alternatives to brand names here in the US.So, you know, even on this one area that he's trying to claim some progress at the same time, he is undercutting his own progress on that.that same issue.And then I don't even know what he's talking about with this health care plan because we've never heard anything else about it.At least I haven't.

Maybe you have.I guess it's not happening.This is the next phase of the concept of a health care plan that we were promised in the presidential election.But I don't think anyone's holding their breath for that one.

No, I don't think so either.I mean, maybe they're trying to squeeze something into reconciliation.I have no idea.It seems unlikely to happen.But good luck to Donald Trump trying to convince people that it's all not just fine, but better than ever.That's right.

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