foreign foreign Simply put, if you were to be a loan shark, you would be buying loans in exchange for instant cash.
In that case, the balance that the treasury pays for the loan shark is the real estate, car loans, and interest rates of your credit cards.Therefore, it leaves a direct and tangible impact on millions of small companies that may need a loan, and millions of homeowners who may be trying to buy their first home, and millions of students who are struggling to get scholarships if they do not have federal grants.There is also a second possible impact that may have a direct effect on you, which is that the higher these rates are, the greater the risks to our financial system, because our banks are not the largest, but the medium and small ones, and if we see huge fluctuations, as we see in the bonds market, This means that the general budgets of these banks may really be in danger.The last time we saw very high interest rates was in 2023, and one of those claims was an actual rescue.It was a momentous moment for the financial markets, and it was possible to leave a great impact on the economy as a whole.Therefore, there is a direct impact on the borrowing of consumers.
And there is a second layer related to the infrastructure of financial markets, where the big shocks that we do not know their dimensions become scary and bring us back to questions about 2008 or maybe 2023, as it creates a state of instability for foreign governments and banks.Therefore, we do not want to see major fluctuations in this sector, and we can now move to know the reason for this.event, if this is useful.
Yes, let's move on to that.If we show Bloomberg's data on the screen, we find that they indicate that Trump did not show any concern after the day of liberation, until he said that the stock markets are what is happening this time.And you, Scott Payson, covered Trump's news and his relationship with the stock markets as well.What can we expect from the administration?
Well, I think what is happening now is a mixture of structural and immediate problems.The structural problem is that with the deterioration of the population of the West, we have an advantage in government spending with the absence of sufficient wills.not only in the United States, but also in Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan.And what happens is the presence of large amounts of debts in exchange for an insufficient number of buyers, which gives buyers the upper hand in demanding a higher raise, which makes borrowing more expensive for the US government, and this is the main structural problem.And now, on top of that, we witnessed, as you pointed out, Geopolitical developments of great danger are increasing the escalation of the existing structural problems.When Madiq Hormiz with the continuation of tension with Iran, the effect of this is the raising of the risks of inflation.
And when inflation rises, any person who owns bonds will think, I need a better return rate because the value of my bonds will decrease over time.So this, along with other things, such as the unclear position of the federal reserve in the fight against inflation, and the boom in spending on artificial intelligence, has created a huge and additional demand on the financial capital.And this is another reason for the lack of individuals and institutions who buy bonds.This creates all this pressure for a short time.What will the administration do about this is a great question.I am trying to get an answer for it.
We saw a few weeks ago that the Minister of Financethat the matter is completely related to the protection of our allies and their assistance.But people did not forget that the Japanese have more than a trillion dollars of US Treasury bonds.They are the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds at all.And if their currency is in a real mess, they may collectively sell the dollars they own to support the yen.And that will be very bad for the US bonds, which the administration will also do.
Today, just a few hours ago, we received an announcement from the Treasury Department that they are basically changing their policy.They are buying old debts and trying to issue new debts.The mechanisms of this matter are complicated and really boring, frankly.So I don't want to waste your time with it.But it is another step that aims to improve liquidity in the stock market in the short term.But it does not really address the main structural problem or the war, as one of them said to me, do we risk the economy of the United States as a whole because Israel convinced Tehran to enter into a war with Iran?
Not to mention the danger at the moment due to the choices that have been made for a series of confusing reasons.It is absurd to write in a notice about the importance of the benefits and the importance of Trump's interest in this indicator.With the approach of half -renewal elections, is there a certain level of interest rates that Trump is monitoring?What are the specific details that we should monitor here?Yes, we are approaching 5 % over the past 10 years.We are at about 5 .3 % in 30 -year bonds.
If the 10 -year bonds exceed 5 % for economists, we will start seeing real problems in the financial markets and in some banks.And I am confident that the administration will continue to do its best to solve them.balances without that level.But I think, Emily, that you mentioned my acquaintances on the day of liberation, which is an important explanatory example, because it was a moment in the past year, you may remember it, where the Trump administration realized that the huge acquaintances it imposed caused big problems in the bond market, so it withdrew from it.and now I think it is clear that the matter is somewhat different from what they did at the time.Can they really say that the war is over and that Hermes' bottle is open?
As well as spending on artificial intelligence and the number of keys, the definitions that they have been able to control in the past year.Therefore, from certain aspects, It has become out of their control.They have a situation that is not as easy to solve as it was in the previous time.And I think this will be a real problem if they are not able to know how to control the situation quickly.
A journalist took a picture of a list of tasks similar to the list of marketing, and it was written in that list, at least remotely.He says in the Billkington that he has been 18 days since he set the alarm.And as far as I understand, Jeef, this has not only a huge impact on the investment of artificial intelligence due to the trade.where it was possible for a long time to borrow money in Japanese yen with an interest rate of about 0%, then use it to invest in things like securities, as it was before.So it seems to me that this may have a positive effect.impact on our economy as a whole.
Yes, and if you look at what Paycent did, and the mechanisms it used in the first attempt to support Yen, and basically, you can say, well, if the United States were to buy Yen, wouldn't it be the same?If you buy Yen, the demand increases, which stops the sales operations and allows Japan to manage its economy without the need to get rid of the US dollar.This is logic, but if you think about it financially, you will wonder, Does this not mean that the United States needs to sell its own treasury bonds to buy yen?And what is really important, and I think it is interesting to pay attention to the way they followed, is that PaySynth sold the euro.The United States owns shares of the euro, and this does not completely reverse our work.But Europe is there, so that's enough.
And they are mostly fine.Not completely, but with the war in Ukraine, The problem is, as you say, that this intervention did not last, and now everyone is wondering Where will the savings come from?You can issue more U .S.bonds to do so.You can sell U .
S.treasury bonds, but this may contradict the main motivation to do so in the first place.And as you say, the Japanese yin.As you know, there is an old saying among economists that indicates the existence of four types of economies in the world.Namiya, Mutakaddima, Japan, and Argentina.Part of what makes Japan special is that it is the weakest currency we have.
As a result, the issuance of their debts is widespread in the global economy, and if they are subjected to a sudden currency shock, we may witness problems in the US.
Well, let's move on to the latest Trump projects.
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