'Trump puts out huge threats then backpedals', says Sean Bell

Sean Bell joins us.Sean, what is the pressure here on the President that maybe is leading him to change course yet again?

Yeah, good afternoon, Gareth.It's a familiar story, isn't it?President Trump puts out these huge threats and then backpedals.when he says that talks are in progress.So this time, Iran has actually said, as you've covered, that there are no talks.But it is worth remembering that there are lots of interlocutors that do talking behind the scenes before it gets in front of the main players.

I think, for me, the key question is why now?It was originally America striking war with Iran, but it's gradually expanded to much more of a regional conflict.So if you look at the Middle East countries, their exports have been affected, and some of their infrastructure has been damaged.We saw the other day that Iraq was actually targeted there was some funerals there, anti -American sentiment.Down the Bab al -Mandab Straits, we understand the traffic through there has actually been slowing quite significantly because of the threats to the Saudi oil there.And even up in Egypt, if you look at the eastern end of the Mediterranean, there's been some strikes up there.

I think what's been fascinating is that America has claimed the Middle East.The leaders of the Middle East are very supportive of this war.But actually, we saw a really unprecedented situation this last weekend where the Crown Mohammed bin Salman actually had a phone call with President Trump from Saudi Arabia saying, look, you need to back off, urging America to be much more restrained.That was backed up by the UAE and Qatar as well, just reminding him that you have picked a fight with Iran.Iran's missiles can't reach as far as America but they can reach as far as us.If you were to be a cynic, you would say that these announcements also manage the price of oil.

It was on its way up over the weekend.prospect of talks is back down by 5 % again.It is some of these announcements are manipulating the markets as we go.What about domestic pressures?

Where do they factor into all of this?

Yeah, I mean, it's day 157, I think, of the war now.At the start of it, President Trump said it was a four to six week war.He said thatknow, 28th of February started off the distant prospect of these midterm elections, which is so vital.for President Trump, but also the Republican Party, were almost a year away.But, of course, now we're actually only 92 days away from those.

You know, we're 150 -odd days into the war, and all of a sudden, the clock is ticking, pressure is building.Now, the war is unpopular back in the US.The Pew Research Centre has done some polling.Over 60 % of Americans are deeply unhappy with the war.They're seeing inflation, high gas prices, although their gas prices still equate to about 60p a gallon, which I notice that we're paying about three times that in the country.Trump.

Getting the Strait of Hormuz open is now becoming an urgent priority and it's pretty clear that military action simply delays the inevitable.

Trump says talks are happening, the Iranians say there's no talks at the moment, there's probably something in between because there's the Pakistanis, the Qataris doing some mediating.If conversations do take place, what's the focus of them?

Well, if you'd asked me at the beginning of the war, it was all about the nuclear, curtailing Tehran's nuclear ambitions.But the crocodile nearest the canoe at the moment is undoubtedly the Strait of Hormuz.That's the one that needs to be opened.The 10 -day rolling average of movement through the Strait of Hormuz is now down at about four ships a day.If you look at that compared to the pre -war, it was about 100.And even Oman and Iran are now in discussions between them to sort out how would the interim arrangements, potentially long -term arrangements, for managing the Strait.

The US strategy here has always been, even to the last few days, hit Iran hard until they can't take any more and force them to negotiate a table.That might work with democracy, but the Iranian people are definitely hurting, but the IRGC are not.They see this as a once -in -a -generation opportunity to actually recover from being a pariah state to potentially being a regional power, control the Strait of Hormuz and everything.They probably can't believe their luck, in a way, and this all appears to be the outcome of off -limits.military perspective, looks a very ill -conceived US strategy for the region.